Keir Starmer Confronts Critical 2026 Make Or Break Year

In his New Year message to voters, Keir Starmer said: “By staying the course, we will defeat the decline and division offered by others.”

As his leadership rivals circle, the prime minister may well have been addressing his fractious MPs as much as the country at large.

Be in no doubt that the mood among the Parliamentary Labour Party is grim, with their anger being directed at what they see as a misfiring No.10 operation.

This week’s row over the release of Alaa Abd El-Fattah merely served to confirm what Starmer’s critics already believed, that there is no political problem that the PM and those around him cannot make worse.

Following the British-Egyptian pro-democracy activist’s release from jail, the prime minister posted on X: “I’m delighted that Alaa Abd El-Fattah is back in the UK and has been reunited with his loved ones, who must be feeling profound relief.

“I want to pay tribute to Alaa’s family, and to all those that have worked and campaigned for this moment. Alaa’s case has been a top priority for my government since we came to office. I’m grateful to President Sisi for his decision to grant the pardon.”

However, historic anti-semitic and racist tweets by El-Fattah soon emerged, plunging the government into a fresh crisis as both the Tories and Reform UK demanded his British citizenship be revoked.

It took fully 72 hours for Starmer to eventually break his silence, and only after foreign secretary Yvette Cooper had announced an inquiry into how the civil service managed to miss El-Fattah’s deeply offensive posts.

The PM said: “The historic tweets by Alaa Abd El-Fattah are absolutely abhorrent. With the rise of anti-semitism, and recent horrific attacks, I know this has added to the distress of many in the Jewish community in the UK. We are taking steps to review the information failures in this case.”

In a crowded field, it was arguably Starmer’s most embarrassing U-turn yet.

One senior Labour figure told HuffPost UK: “It was entirely predictable how this would play out, and is emblematic of how this government handles each and every crisis.

“They couldn’t work out that Wednesday follows Tuesday.”

Another source described the controversy as “substantively and presentationally mad, bad and dangerous”, while a former aide said simply: “It’s an utter mess.”

In many ways it was a fitting end to what has been a miserable 2025 for Starmer, whose personal popularity has plummeted during a torrid 12 months for his governments.

U-turns over things like winter fuel payments for pensioners and cuts to disability benefits destroyed what little authority he had, leaving most Labour MPs, including his own ministers, convinced that he will be ousted in 2026.

Indeed, a poll last week found that even 38% of Labour voters believe the party will stand a better chance at the next general election if Starmer is replaced as PM before then.

HuffPost UK also understands that a former senior adviser to Starmer is set to make a public intervention that could further add to the PM’s woes.

With their boss’s back against the wall, the Starmer’s team have drawn up “comprehensive” plans for a “strong start” to the New Year in a desperate attempt to get Starmer back on the front foot.

We know this because Tim Allan, the veteran spin doctor now heading up the No.10 communications operation, accidentally revealed it to photographers just before Christmas.

On the face of it at least, Starmer remains upbeat that 2026 will be the year when “things start to feel easier” for hard-pressed voters.

The PM hopes that an increase in the minimum wage, cuts to energy bills, and the freezing of rail fares, fuel duty and prescription charges will make people feel better off.

“The choices we’ve made will mean more people will begin to feel positive change in your bills, your communities and your health service,” the PM said in his New Year message.

“But even more people will feel once again a sense of hope, a belief that things can and will get better, feel that the promise of renewal can become a reality, and my government will make it that reality.”

Nevertheless, major parliamentary battles lie ahead over cuts to special educational needs provision as well as plans to scrap most jury trials.

Also looming large are elections on May 7, when voters in Scotland, Wales and across England will go to the polls to deliver their verdict on the PM’s first two years in the job.

Every opinion poll suggests that Labour is once again heading for defeat to the SNP at Holyrood, relinquishing power in the Senedd for the first time ever and losing potentially thousands of councillors in English town halls.

A leadership challenge at that point is all-but certain, and few believe the PM will have the political strength or the parliamentary support to fend it off.

Yet another battle for the soul of the Labour Party will then ensue, between those on the Right such as Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood, and the likes of Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham on the Left.

One MP said: “I expect a renewed push from the likes of Momentum, Unison and Unite. The cold war will get hot in January – bring it on.”