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Obituary: Peter Jay – the rise and fall of ‘the cleverest young man in England’

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Obituary: Peter Jay - the rise and fall of 'the cleverest young man in England'
Getty Images Peter JayGetty Images

Peter Jay, the former economics editor of the BBC, has died aged 87.

At various times, Jay was also economics editor of the Times newspaper, presenter of ITV’s Weekend World, British Ambassador to Washington, launch chairman of TV-am and chief of staff to Robert Maxwell.

In a statement, his family said: “Peter Jay’s family are very sad to announce he died peacefully at home today 22 September aged 87.

“He was a much loved husband, father, grandfather, brother, uncle, cousin, friend, and colleague.”

Charming, brilliant and arrogant in equal measure, he was famously described at school as ‘the cleverest young man in England.”

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“Is there someone cleverer in Wales?” came the retort.

Once tipped as a future world leader by Time magazine, Jay was later installed in splendour as Her Majesty’s Ambassador to the US.

But what went up, came crashing down.

His time in Washington was overshadowed by the public disintegration of his marriage. So spectacular was the scandal, it later inspired a Hollywood film.

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Getty Images A young Peter Jay in a newsroomGetty Images

By the age of 30, Peter Jay had become the economics editor of The Times

Jay was born on 7 February 1937, and enjoyed a glittering start to life.

His father, Douglas, was a Labour cabinet minister and destined for the Lords.

An early proponent of “modernisation” of the party, he argued for ditching its working class image and abandoning nationalisation as early as the 1960s.

His mother, Peggy, was a leading light of the London County Council and described by a local paper as the “uncrowned queen of Hampstead”.

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He was educated at the Dragon School in Oxford before, like his father and grandfather before him, going on to Winchester.

There, he scooped a host of academic prizes and was, inevitably, made head boy.

After national service in the Royal Navy, his effortless rise continued at Christ Church, Oxford, where he graduated with a first class honours degree in politics, philosophy and economics

Getty Images Peter Jay and Margaret Callaghan at their weddingGetty Images

Peter Jay and Margaret Callaghan married in 1961

It was at Oxford that he met Margaret, daughter of the future Labour prime minister Jim Callaghan and the couple married in 1961.

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Jay secured a job at the Treasury, before being appointed economics editor of the Times.

For a while, he was based in Washington where he became enthralled by the work of a new breed of free-market thinkers, including the Chicago-based economist, Milton Friedman.

Jay used his columns to promote “monetarism” in England. It later became Mrs Thatcher’s guiding economic philosophy but it also influenced his father-in-law.

He even said he wrote parts of Callaghan’s 1976 party conference speech.

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“We used to think that you could spend your way out of a recession,” the prime minister told a sceptical audience. “I tell you in all candour that that option no longer exists.”

Getty Images Peter and Margaret Jay with their daughter in 1966Getty Images

Peter and Margaret Jay with their daughter in 1966

He suffered fools badly, and saw his articles as part of a high-minded battle of ideas.

A sub editor once dared to complain that one piece was difficult to understand.

“I only wrote this for three people”, came the lofty reply. “The editor of the Times, the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Governor of the Bank of England.”

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Jay attempted to follow his father into politics, but failed to be selected as the Labour candidate for Islington South West for the 1970 General Election.

So, he moved into television.

In the 1970s, he presented a news analysis programme called Weekend World for London Weekend Television where he became close friends with the programme’s creator, John Birt.

Together, they launched a savage critique of journalistic standards in TV.

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Pictures, they complained, took precedence over analysis – and this “bias against understanding” could only be addressed by bringing in experts and putting them in front of camera.

Later, this “mission to explain” became a central feature of Birt’s time as director general of the BBC.

Rex Features Peter Jay with the then Foreign Secretary David OwenRex Features

David Owen’s (right) appointment of Jay (left) as UK ambassador to Washington caused a storm of protest

Jay might have remained a journalist but, in 1977, he was suddenly appointed as British Ambassador to Washington.

With no experience in politics or diplomacy, his appointment was met by furious accusations of nepotism.

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James Callaghan faced angry questions in the House of Commons. But the decision had been the Foreign Secretary’s.

David Owen had felt the Jays would charm the incoming Carter administration and – by virtue of their personal friendship – Jay would be loyal in his service.

“Here comes Peter Jay,” was the headline in the Washington Post, “Britain’s brilliant and insufferable new ambassador”.

Jay and Margaret’s two years in Washington were a diplomatic success – but a personal disaster.

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By the time an incoming Conservative government called time on Jay’s appointment, Margaret was having an affair with Watergate journalist, Carl Bernstein.

The breakdown of two marriages was immortalised as Heartburn – a thinly-disguised, autobiographical, tragi-comic novel by Bernstein’s wife, Nora Ephron.

It later became a Hollywood film starring Meryl Streep and Jack Nicholson.

The scandals kept coming. Jay was reported to have fathered a son with Jane Tustian, their children’s nanny at the embassy.

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The Daily Mail got wind of it, and – angry that he’d left her – Jane told them everything. Jay remained tight-lipped, until a blood test confirmed he was the father.

Getty Images Margaret Jay and Carl Bernstein photographed at a partyGetty Images

Margaret Jay and Carl Bernstein’s affair became a scandal

On his return from the US, Jay led the consortium that set up TV-am, which successfully bid for the ITV breakfast television franchise in December 1980.

The launch of the new TV station was beset by highly publicised problems.

He was forced to rush the new broadcaster to air just weeks after the BBC had first broadcast its own early morning TV offering.

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The decision to make the new show highbrow and news-heavy was based on a mistaken belief that the BBC would do the same.

In the event, viewers were not ready for a heavyweight agenda over their cornflakes, much preferring the BBC’s lighter magazine style of programme.

TV-am’s viewing figures plunged, and pressure from investors led to a boardroom coup.

Jay was pushed out in March 1983. A fortnight later, to great fanfare, came the first appearance of Roland Rat.

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Getty Images Robert Kee, Michael Parkinson, Anna Ford, David Frost, Angela Rippon & Peter JayGetty Images

Peter Jay with the stars of TV-am: Robert Kee, Michael Parkinson, Anna Ford, David Frost and Angela Rippon

In 1986, Jay was announced as chief of staff to Maxwell, the flamboyant and later disgraced press and media tycoon.

Maxwell loved calling him “Mr Ambassador”, but subjected him to a barrage of late night phone calls and a daily round of humiliation.

Jay stayed for three-and-a-half years, working for a man he later described as “barbarous” but insisting he managed to shield himself from lasting damage.

“I was surrounded by an invisible glass wall through which (Maxwell) could never penetrate. His manner never got under my skin,” he said.

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In the end, an old friend came to the rescue in the shape of Birt, now the BBC’s director general.

Getty Images Robert MaxwellGetty Images

Peter Jay later described Robert Maxwell as “barbarous”

During his decade as the broadcaster’s economics editor, Jay reserved his appearances for special occasions.

There was sniping in the press that he was hard to tempt away from his farmhouse in Oxford, where he lived with his second wife, Emma, and their three children.

The highlight of his time at the BBC came with Road to Riches, a landmark series which examined the economic history of mankind.

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It gave him space to explore money, a subject that had always fascinated him.

“After sex, money is our second appetite” he once said, and freely admitted he’d gone into television to pay for luxuries, like his precious, private yachts.

Rex Features Peter Jay photographed towards the end of his time at the BBCRex Features

Peter Jay photographed towards the end of his time at the BBC

His time at the BBC came to an end in 2001, around the time that Greg Dyke, an incoming director general, reviewed the way the broadcaster explained the economy to its audience.

After that, Jay spent time as a director of the Bank of England, lecturing and doing consulting work before fading gently into retirement

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He once described his career as ending in anti-climax, having once been Ambassador to Washington.

But, more often, he presented it as “a chapter of accidents” and “a diverting and enjoyable ramble through life”.

But, no objective observer could describe such a life as a “ramble”.

It was a thrilling, exhausting, white-knuckle ride.

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This $25,000 Bucket List NYC Experience Sells Out a Year in Advance

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(credit: courtesy of The Ritz-Carlton New York Central Park)

Situated on the corner of 59th St and 6th Ave just across the street from Central Park, The Ritz-Carlton New York, Central Park offers a yearly suite package not to be missed. Its location along the parade route of the iconic Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade makes it an idyllic location to wrap guests in the magic of the parade. 

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The hotel offers a $25,000-per-night Thanksgiving Specialty Suite package that includes unparalleled parade views from your room and brunch for up to eight guests in the Artists’ Gate Suite. Located on the 3rd floor, the suite offers exceptional views of Central Park and Sixth Avenue from its 13 large windows, providing a perfect viewpoint to the parade below. Designed for entertaining, the suite features two separate living rooms, a guest bathroom, billiards room and a dining room which seats eight. 

(credit: courtesy of The Ritz-Carlton New York Central Park)

Along with an overnight stay for you and four guests in the Artists’ Gate Suite, this package includes other perks such as a $250 room credit, gourmet treats, luxury airport transfers and more. Due to the popularity of the three-hour parade in Manhattan and the hotel’s perfect vantage point to see the giant balloons, fabulous floats and great entertainers, the package is so popular that it sells out a year in advance! So if you and your friends and family are looking to celebrate Thanksgiving in true splendor, make sure to call the hotel to reserve for next year.

The property also offers a Thanksgiving Package for stays in rooms or suites with exceptional parade views, or regular non-parade view rooms, early reservations and special amenities designed to create lasting memories for families and loved ones. Rates vary but start at $3,000 per night for non-parade view rooms, with parade-view rooms also booking out a year in advance. 

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Guests who stay at the hotel will also have access to on-property restaurant Contour, numerous wellness experiences – including the first stateside La Prairie Spa and innovative Movement Studio – and an unrivaled starting point for an incomparable luxury retreat in the city. 

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Your Royal Rocky Mountain Getaway

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Have you ever stayed in a hotel or resort before and can’t believe it actually exists, let alone you are setting foot in such a magical place? That was the experience I had while visiting Fairmont Banff Springs; a castle-like historic hotel that makes fairytale dreams come true.

Banff National Park, adjacent to the property, was designated as a UNESCO World Heritage site in 1984, and when you visit, you understand why. The soaring craggy mountains, glacially-fed bright blue rivers and lakes, thick forests and picturesque meadows are all jaw-droppingly beautiful. Amidst the natural splendor, the Fairmont Banff Springs prominently reaches for the pristine blue skies, a bastion of architecture, historic significance, luxury accommodations and fine dining.

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Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

A great way to orient yourself to the property is to take a history tour. Our guide, Ewen, was from Scotland and gave great insights to the property’s history, which itself is speckled with Scottish thistle motifs, European-inspired design and over 130 years of remarkable history. The tour helps to add the layers of appreciation to the space, from the fossil-speckled Tyndall stone flooring, to the explanation of the hotel’s footprint being 180 degrees off from the architect’s original orientation. Stories of original guests staying for a 3-4 month season and having their bank accounts verified at check in, to a hidden lounge behind a bookshelf in the Rundle Bar. A fascinating peek into the property’s past, the well-timed tour is a great orientation.

Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

The Fairmont Gold Experience is a hotel-within-a-hotel luxury offering for guests, which I highly recommend. A private check-in desk as well as lounge with dedicated concierge staff only accent the beautifully appointed rooms and large lounge space which is home to an impressive breakfast spread, canapes and cocktails throughout the day. A quiet area lounge is backed by a large fireplace; ideal for curling up with a good book and enjoying a comfy afternoon.

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Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

Vermillion dining room

Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

Dining experiences abound at Fairmont Banff Springs, and you should try them all. The Vermillion Room is home to French-inspired cuisine. Sweeping views of the surrounding mountains can be enjoyed from the dining room and bar areas. Open for breakfast, lunch, dinner and Sunday brunch (which I enjoyed thoroughly with an impressive array of fare and perhaps the best profiterole I’ve ever had), Vermillion Room is charming and delightful.

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Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

1888 Chop House fare

Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

1888 Chop House is the award-winning steakhouse on property. Known for their Alberta beef, wild game and oceanwise seafood, no stay at Fairmont Banff Springs is complete without a meal at this storied steakhouse. Details and touches such as the nasturtium butter to go with the 1888 house bread, a delectable bison tenderloin, or a wagyu beef tenderloin with accompaniments such as Quebec blue cheese, lobster tails or foie gras will have you begging to return. Desserts such as the Textures of Chocolate or Forest Berries and Cream are worth saving room for as well.

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Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

Another aspect to the resort that isn’t to be missed is the 40,000 sf spa. Dip into the mineral pool surrounded by various temperature waterfall whirlpools, or head outside for a hot tub that overlooks the valley beyond while birds sing in the branches above. While there, I tried the 60-minute Signature Rockies Rehydration service; an assortment of dry-brushing skin technique, relaxing massage and top-tier spa product treatments that my only wish was wanting to stay longer.

Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

The indoor and outdoor pools are ideally situated to take in the view of the surrounding mountains, with lounge areas available in both. Paramount to this destination is the great outdoors; so whether strolling or biking into town, taking a horseback canter, riding the scenic gondola, or playing a round of golf, there is something for everyone.

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Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

The hotel may have been opened in 1888 by the Canadian Pacific Highway, but there is no lack of luxury and memorable experiences to be had at this hotel and resort today. Enjoy one of the 739 hotel rooms, the opulent dining opportunities, 27 holes of internationally acclaimed golf, and spacious spa in the Rocky Mountains. For rates and reservations, visit https://www.fairmont.com/banff-springs/

Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

Fairmont Gold loung food offerings

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Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

The Rundle Bar

Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

The Rundle Bar fare

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Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

The Rundle Bar patio

Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

Deluxe room

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Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

The Rundle Bar quiet lounge

Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

Crown Suite bathroom

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Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

Junior Suite

Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

Yoga on outdoor patio

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Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

Walk into town

Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

Running on trails in Banff

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Courtesy of Fairmont Banff Springs

Enjoy golf in the stunning mountain setting





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Bitcoin price strength extends to AVAX, SUI, TAO and AAVE — Are altcoins back?

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Bitcoin price strength extends to AVAX, SUI, TAO and AAVE — Are altcoins back?


Bitcoin’s rally to $64,000 increased traders’ interest in altcoins like AVAX, SUI, TAO and AAVE.



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Missy Mazzoli on turning the Hum into an opera with sociopolitical resonance

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A strange phenomenon has brought together a diverse group of people in a US suburb. For weeks or months, a persistent, low hum has been heard by each of them, but not by their families and friends. It has been causing headaches, nosebleeds, insomnia and — increasingly — panic. Some people have moved out of the family home. Others have lost their jobs.

What is this hum? One of the group suggests a kind of seance to see if, collectively, they can control it. Another blames the “deep state”, government surveillance or conspiracies by the Democrats. A cult-like atmosphere develops as the group looks desperately for leadership.

This is the plot of Jordan Tannahill’s The Listeners, which began life as the outline plot for an opera but first appeared as a novel in 2021, before being realised as an opera in 2022. Now it is being turned into a BBC television mini-series, starring Rebecca Hall, by Tannahill himself. Meanwhile, the opera, composed by Missy Mazzoli, will have its first US performances this month by Opera Philadelphia, which co-commissioned it.

The timing is not coincidental. With the US election less than two months away, the subject of how a group of people can fall under the influence of one individual with a strong personality is again likely to be scrutinised in the media.

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A woman with long brown hair in a brown top and white overshirt stands underneath trees as sunlight shines through
Composer Missy Mazzoli, who says ‘The Listeners’ opera was first conceived when Donald Trump became US president in 2016 © Daniel Dorsa/New York Times/Redux/Eyevine

“We conceived this idea initially in 2016, when [Donald] Trump was elected,” says Mazzoli, American composer of a series of successful operas. “We were asking what Trump offers Americans — a sense of belonging, of being listened to by a leader — and, on the darker side, whether he is exploiting people to his own end. The pluses and minuses of having a charismatic leader have certainly been more in the conversation in the last eight years. That election revealed a lot about America, about how people were frustrated, feeling alone and unheard.”

Mazzoli says she has long been fascinated by cults. “At the time there were a lot of documentaries about cults, from Wild Wild Country, about Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh’s community in Oregon in the 1980s, to The Vow, on the cult NXIVM in upstate New York. All these organisations tend to follow the same pattern, in that there is eventually some sort of betrayal, in which one person comes forward and says there is abuse from the leader, and within days or weeks the cult will disintegrate.”

The basic idea was presented to Tannahill, the Canadian playwright and author, who produced a seven-page outline for an opera. From there to a full libretto was still a sizeable undertaking and that fell to Royce Vavrek, who had already worked with Mazzoli on her opera Proving Up. Meanwhile, Tannahill went his own way writing the novel, so The Listeners has a complex family tree.

Vavrek says he was not involved in Tannahill’s dramaturgical journey, and Tannahill was not involved in theirs: “When you plant two seeds, they’re the same genus of flower and yet they grow in different ways in different environments.”

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He says that watching Trump and Kamala Harris develop their campaigns has taken on extra resonance. “Even though [the opera] is not a direct allegory to the political climate we’re living in, it is interesting to compare the rhetoric coming out of the two presidential candidates with that of Howard [the cult leader in The Listeners] and see how they are encouraging people to fall in line with their platform.”

What neither the opera nor the book does is offer easy answers as to why people are drawn into cults. It may often be politics or religion that is the conduit, but those who feel the attraction are not easily categorised.

The story that Tannahill proposed brings them together through the allegorical symbol of “the Hum”, a real-life phenomenon felt by an estimated 4 per cent of the world’s population. Here it signifies an unquantifiable human need in search of a solution. One of music’s unique strengths is that it can be ambiguous, and Mazzoli’s opera makes the most of that quality, suggesting a powerful but unknown force at work, drawing the audience into another world.

A group of about 30 people mainly dressed in blue standing on an opera stage with windows and an ox head with horns on the wall behind them
The cast for the opera of ‘The Listeners’, showing from this month at Opera Philadelphia © Erik Berg

“That is the true mysteriousness of the Hum,” says Lileana Blain-Cruz, the opera’s director. “People are asking themselves: ‘Am I going crazy? What is reality? Am I alone in this?’ It’s wonderfully dense and complex. Missy and Royce like to go deep into the subterranean layers of our consciousness, and that’s why I love this opera. Yes, it’s the politics, but it’s also psychology. What makes us people?”

We follow the human story through the character of Claire, the role taken by Hall in the TV series. A middle-class wife and mother, she finds her life upended by the unceasing hum, losing her job as a teacher and leaving her family. In group meetings at Sequoia Crescent she starts to find solace — until it all goes wrong.

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For Mazzoli, the moral ambiguity of Claire’s character adds to the many-layered story. We are rooting for her and yet she starts down a questionable path in her relationship with Kyle, one of her students, who also hears the Hum. It is a measure of how isolated they feel that they gravitate towards the cult.

“In this incredibly divided nation each side is finding a sense of identity with a certain party,” says Mazzoli. “I think that’s, in part, because we don’t have a social safety net. The idea of individualism, of being able to take care of yourself and not have the government intervene, means that people often don’t have a sense of community.

“But a need for community is part of human nature. We just have to go to greater extremes to find it, whether that means joining a cult or finding some extreme community online. America seems ripe for that scenario just now.”

Missy Mazzoli’s opera ‘The Listeners’ runs September 25-29, operaphila.org

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Election day is already here for some US voters as states open the polls early

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For a growing number of Americans, election day is already here.

Polling day may be officially set for November 5, but in several states early voting is under way, with tens of millions of Americans expected to cast their ballots before then.

In-person voting began on Friday in three states — Minnesota, South Dakota and Virginia. A handful of others, including Alabama and Wisconsin, have started mailing absentee ballots to voters who have requested them, and several more will follow suit in the coming weeks.

“Happy voting season!” declared one Democratic party activist outside a government building in Arlington, Virginia, on Friday, where several hundred voters lined up before the polls opened at 8am to be among the first in the country to cast their ballots for the White House.

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“We want to win in October, not November 5,” said Rose Fabia, a 65-year-old Democratic party volunteer wearing an “I VOTED” sticker on her lapel.

“It is psychological, showing to the other side that we have the numbers.”

Campaign billboards outside a polling station in Arlington, Virginia, on Friday
Campaign billboards outside a polling station in Arlington, Virginia, on Friday © Lauren Fedor, FT

About 20 miles, or 32km, away, outside a polling station in nearby Fairfax, Virginia, Mary Lyn Field-Nguer, 76, was also leafleting for the Democrats after casting her own ballot for Kamala Harris.

“I really wanted to be the first person in line,” Field-Nguer added. “Anything could happen, and if anything prevented me from voting I would never forgive myself.”

Voters have long been able to request absentee ballots in advance of US elections. But the practice of early voting — either in person or by mail — exploded four years ago in the Covid-19 pandemic. A record of more than 100mn Americans exercised their franchise before election day in 2020.

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While it remains unclear whether a new record for early voting will be set this election cycle, there are strong signs that the practice remains popular in many parts of the country.

According to the US Census Bureau, just under half of people casting ballots in the 2022 midterms voted before election day — a trend experts say is likely to continue this year.

On Friday morning in Arlington, a queue of waiting voters had already stretched on to a second floor of the government building within the first hour of the polls being open.

Gretchen Reinemeyer, who has been general registrar and director of elections for Arlington county since 2019, said the precinct could “easily be on track” to match the number of early votes seen on the first day of voting in 2020, when some 1,400 people cast ballots.

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“Any October surprise is probably going to have less potency because so many early votes have already been banked,” said J Miles Coleman, a non-partisan analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Arlington, just outside Washington DC, is a heavily Democratic area: the county backed Joe Biden by an 81-17 margin over Donald Trump there in 2020. Biden won statewide in Virginia by a 10-point margin.

A small but critical share of the electorate swung to the right the following year in an off-year governor’s election to support the more-moderate Republican Glenn Youngkin, and on Friday morning several Republican volunteers were also outside the polling station encouraging people to back Trump over Harris.

The Financial Times poll tracker shows Harris with a lead of more than seven points over Trump in Virginia, but some recent surveys of the state have suggested the race may be closer.

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GOP volunteers in Arlington were also urging people to vote early.

“You never know what is going to happen on election day,” said Matthew Hurtt, chair of the Arlington Republicans, who added that “from a campaign perspective,” voting early also helped organisers better target their efforts in the run-up to polling day.

While people’s votes are kept secret, records are updated in near real-time showing how many ballots have been cast and who has already voted. That allows campaigns and both political parties to stop reaching out to people who have cast ballots, and focus their resources on those who have not.

“It takes you off the list to receive mailers and to receive other campaign materials, so you save the campaign money and you save your mailbox,” Hurtt added.

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Still, early voting has emerged as a divisive issue among Republicans in particular, who have tended to favour voting in person on election day over early voting in recent cycles.

Trump has sowed distrust in the electoral system and continued to maintain, without evidence, that the 2020 election was “rigged” and “stolen” from him. The former president has repeatedly claimed that mail-in voting in particular is a major source of fraud, and earlier this month he vowed that if elected president again, he would prosecute anyone who “cheats” in this year’s ballot.

Katie Gorka
Katie Gorka questions the need for early voting now that the pandemic is over. © Martha Muir, FT

In Fairfax, Katie Gorka, chair of the Fairfax County Republican Committee and a former Trump administration official, questioned why voters needed access to expansive early voting now that the pandemic was over.

“But as long as these are the rules we encourage Republicans to abide by them so that we can win,” she added.

“The whole Republican party is trying to get people to vote early because the Dems vote early,” said Bart Marcois, a 60-year-old consultant who cast his ballot for Trump in Fairfax. “We show up on election day and say ‘yay we had a big turn out’ but theirs is already in the bag.”

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“They’re harvesting ballots and carrying them in,” Marcois added, in an apparent reference to Trump’s unsubstantiated claims that Democrats are submitting illegal ballots. “Every Republican is worried about fraud.”

Other Republican voters, however, were more optimistic.

“Voting is just one of the most important gifts our Founding Fathers gave to this country,” said Mariam Bell, a 69-year-old retiree holding a “Women for Trump” sign in Fairfax.

“This is not about Republicans or Democrats, though, it’s about elites versus the average American,” she added. “Trump understands this and has changed the paradigm.”

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The UAE’s growth plan to boost ranks of Emiratis

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Emirati student Shaima lives in Abu Dhabi with her four siblings and parents. But she says her seven-person household is small — her father grew up alongside 11 brothers and sisters in the days when the region’s families were legendarily large.

The generational downsizing in the 21-year-old’s family reflects a dramatic social shift across the United Arab Emirates: Emirati women bear about half the number of children their grandmothers did in 1970, with the fertility rate down from 6.7 per woman in 1970 to 3.7 by 2017, according to official data.

In a country that lures millions of migrant workers to power an economy that has grown at breakneck speed since the 1960s, the trend has prompted many Emiratis to worry that they belong to a dwindling minority in their own country — and spurred authorities to offer more support designed to encourage large families. 

“Us Emiratis are a minority in our own country,” said Shaima, who called the trend “upsetting”. Expatriates form 93.5 per cent of the UAE population of about 9.5mn, according to the UN.

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“Why is demographics a sensitive issue?” said William Guéraiche, associate professor at the University of Wollongong in Dubai. “Because this imbalance will grow between the Emiratis and foreigners, and Emiratis feel more and more under siege, rightly or not. But this is the general perception, and the authorities have to deal with that.”

The Emirati fertility rate, which government figures put at 3.2 in 2021, has halved in the past two decades, according to Luca Maria Pesando, associate professor of social research and public policy at NYU Abu Dhabi. He described the drop as “very fast for a demographic transition”.

Although 3.2 exceeds the so-called replacement rate of 2.1 live births per woman, meaning the number of Emiratis is not falling, the authorities are concerned about the speed of the decline, said Pesando, who is working on plans to open a state-funded demographics research centre at NYU Abu Dhabi. “If this has halved [in 20 years], maybe it can halve again,” he added.

One former Emirati official said it was almost inevitable the Emirati minority would dwindle as a proportion of the resident population.

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“If we are successful in . . . attracting more people into the country, this automatically diminishes us as a percentage,” he said. “How do you counter that? Encourage people to have more kids.” 

The government has traditionally offered generous subsidies to local families, from grants and loans for housing and weddings to marriage counselling and help with childcare.

But a new “Emirati Family Growth Support Programme” in Abu Dhabi, the emirate which includes the UAE’s capital city, focuses on family size, with incentives such as reduced loan debt on the birth of a fourth, fifth and sixth child.

The government wants Emirati families to “grow their numbers because they play a vital role in achieving social stability and preserving national identity”, said Hamad Ali Al Dhaheri, under-secretary of Abu Dhabi’s community development department.

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Pedestrians in Dubai’s financial district
The government is encouraging locals to have bigger families as it believes this will help preserve national identity © Christopher Pike/Bloomberg

The UAE does not publish detailed national statistics on population composition. But data from Dubai, the region’s business and tourism hub, shows expat population growth still outpacing that of locals. While the number of Emiratis in Dubai increased 31 per cent between 2015 and 2023, the number of foreigners rose by 46 per cent.

Expatriates are largely transient and have scant chance of becoming Emirati citizens, but the UAE has in recent years offered longer-term visas and encouraged foreigners to buy property and invest in businesses. 

The Emirates are expecting a further influx of overseas workers as they pursue ambitious plans for the economy, with Dubai alone forecasting a population of 5.8mn people by 2040, from around 3.5mn now.

The millions of migrant workers, from domestic help to oil engineers and finance professionals, have helped drive rapid growth since Abu Dhabi started exporting oil in the 1960s and Dubai established itself as a trading hub. In just a few decades the country has moved from a largely impoverished tribal society to enjoying some of the region’s highest living standards.

By 2023 the UAE recorded the Middle East’s second biggest gross domestic product per capita, according to the World Bank. 

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As more women pursue higher education and a career, many are choosing to delay having a family © Waleed Zein/Anadolu/Getty Images

But the country’s economic success is a leading factor behind its own slowing birth rate, according to observers. Some Emiratis say rising living costs discourage them from having more children. A government worker and mother of one said she was not planning to have more because of the expense of childcare, including education costs.

Academics also argue that smaller families are partly driven by the UAE’s success in encouraging women to pursue higher education and employment and contribute to the economy, which has led many to delay marriage and having children.

The UAE has a high proportion of working women compared with the wider region, with 55 per cent of those aged over 15 participating in the labour force. By contrast the average across the Middle East and North Africa is 19 per cent, according to International Labour Organization estimates.  

For 30-year-old Huda, a museum researcher whose mother married at 16 and had nine children, staying at home to raise a family was the last thing she wanted.

“[My generation] were very open to [what we saw in] American and western movies,” she said. “We wanted independence.”

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Other UAE policies to help working mothers, such as lengthening statutory maternity leave to 60 days, may not be enough to bring back the big families of the past.

“I know I’m going to be a working mum,” said Shaima, who said she would like four children. “I need to balance between my working life and taking care of my kids. And having a lot of kids is not going to help.”

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