Jorge Martin says the sprint race at Sepang on Saturday could have had an entirely different outcome had he not toughed it out with polesitter Francesco Bagnaia to take the lead midway through the first corner.

As it happened, factory Ducati rider Bagnaia fell out of second place on the third lap of the race, leaving Martin (Pramac Ducati) to stretch his points advantage from 17 to 29 with a straightforward victory.

The Italian’s fall highlighted the difficulty of trying to follow and overtake another rider in MotoGP – as did Martin after the race.

“If I hadn’t taken first position straight away today, I wouldn’t have won,” said Martin. “I think Pecco would have won and I would have been second. So to start well is really important.

“Nowadays, either you are like Enea [Bastianini] who can come from behind, or it’s impossible to win if you’re not in first position at the beginning.”

Martin also showed some sympathy for Bagnaia having been caught out at the slow, left-hand Turn 9.

Jorge Martin, Pramac Racing

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

“It’s been a really critical corner all weekend,” he added. “You have like three different asphalts on the perfect line. And at one point, there’s no asphalt! So it’s like motocross; super difficult. You need to ride a really precise line at that corner.

“I had a few moments there in my time attack yesterday and also today. And sometimes I had to [back off] there during the race too in order not to crash.”

Martin added that his sprint victory was not as easy as it looked after Bagnaia’s retirement.

“After Pecco’s crash, it was difficult to manage the situation,” said Martin. “But I was able to do it well. 

“You do have to think about the fact that Pecco has crashed. You think ‘be careful, you need to finish’. At one point I even thought I might have to [let Marc past] and finish second. 

“But I had a lead of eight-tenths, so it made no sense to wait for him. So I said ‘okay, let’s keep doing the thing you know how to do’. 

Jorge Martin, Pramac Racing

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

“I was really focused on my braking references, just trying to do everything the same without changing anything.”

Martin’s successful Saturday means he could wrap up his maiden championship in the Malaysian Grand Prix on Sunday.

But he does not plan to take a particularly cautious approach or get bogged down in the permutations.

“When I try to relax, I get more nervous and everything gets more difficult,” he said when asked if he felt more breathing space with the extended points advantage.

“Today I was a bit nervous in the morning, so I said to Gino [Borsoi, his team manager], ‘Gino, I will go for it.’ I don’t want to finish second or third, I want to go for it. If Pecco is stronger, he will win. And if he’s not, he won’t’.

“Tomorrow will be a bit more of the same. If Pecco is much stronger, it’s okay. But I will do my best, because it’s the only way I can really be at 100% and focused.”

Francesco Bagnaia, Ducati Team

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

He noted that Bagnaia will be a dangerous competitor on Sunday given he has no choice but to win. 

“It’s a privilege to have this advantage at this point,” said Martin. “But it’s not over until it’s over.

“Tomorrow will be a really long race and Pecco will risk a lot to win. He has nothing to lose now – it’s all or nothing. To beat him under those conditions is really tough.”

However, Martin also echoed Bagnaia’s suspicion that the championship leader is unlikely to finish lower than second – despite his chaser’s hopes that other riders can take points off the Spaniard.

“We are a step in front of the others, so I think in the worst case I will try to finish second,” said Martin.

Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll will start Brazil’s sprint race from the pitlane after making sweeping changes to their Aston Martin F1 cars.

Alonso and Stroll both struggled for speed in Friday’s sprint qualifying, only managing 16th and 19th respectively.

In response to the result and in a desire to further hone in on their car set-up for the remainder of the weekend, both Aston Martins have undergone changes under parme conditions, which means they have to start from the pitlane.

The FIA document specified that both the bodywork specification and the suspension set-up of Alonso’s and Stroll’s cars have been changed overnight.

Sauber’s Zhou Guanyu, who qualified last, has also had his suspension set-up changed and will line up behind the two Astons at pit exit.

Fernando Alonso, Aston Martin AMR24

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Speaking after qualifying, Alonso had already suggested that he would treat the 24-lap sprint as a practice session, calling the race “useless” from his lowly grid position.

“The sprint for us really means nothing, as there are only eight cars scoring points,” the two-time world champion said. “And even if you are eighth or seventh, you score one point or two. So just the format doesn’t reward anything to be fast on Friday night and Saturday.

“For us there’s much more focus on Sunday, so that’s the way we treat the sprint weekends. A little bit useless until Saturday afternoon. And it’s the case on this one as well.”

Alonso explained set-up experiments following Friday’s sole practice session had also been one of the reasons why the Aston Martin team’s qualifying session had been so low-key.

“We didn’t have the pace in qualifying,” he said. “We made some changes also after FP1 that we knew were maybe detrimental to the pace of the car. But we had to keep ourselves focused on Sunday more than Saturday, so for us, the sprint is more a free practice.”

Formula 1 teams have been left facing some difficult strategy choices for the Brazilian Grand Prix as a host of elements have come together to make things extremely complicated.

A combination of the new track surface, the timing of the sprint race, Pirelli’s selections for this weekend and uncertainty over the weather have created a perfect storm where the best route forward is not clear right now.

Of particular concern is the fact that teams cannot be sure which combination of tyres they need to keep back for Sunday’s grand prix, because the picture from the opening day of running has not offered a firm answer about degradation and wear levels.

The newly-resurfaced Interlagos circuit seems to offer some decent grip levels, but degradation levels were far from clear because of the huge fluctuations in track temperature caused by the new black asphalt.

Opening practice took place with the track nudging the mid-50Cs, and that opened the door for the tyres to be punished quite a lot, especially when the appearance of graining also contributed to some excessive wear.

As Williams driver Alex Albon said: “It’s unbelievable degradation here. This track is made out of sandpaper, so it will make it interesting.”

However, things seem more settled down in the late afternoon when sprint qualifying took place, as track temperatures dropped into the 40Cs.

But teams will be aware that Saturday’s sprint takes place at 11am local time on Saturday, when track temps will likely be in the upper region.

So, with Pirelli having selected the most aggressive of its tyre compounds for this weekend, and the soft being pretty much a single lap tyre so not suitable for the sprint duration, that will likely nudge teams to having to use a medium or hard on Saturday.

The difficulty with that though is that teams are very tight on the number of sets that they have left.

After sprint qualifying, all the top teams are in the same boat, in having two new hards available, then one new and two used mediums.

So, with indications pointing towards Sunday’s grand prix being a two-stop race, teams are going to have to choose where the compromise comes from and where they likely run a used medium.

It is not clear yet whether track temperatures and degradation will mean the best strategy on Sunday is to run medium/hard/medium (which was last year’s strategy based on the current tyres being one step softer), or medium/hard/hard.

Both strategies are currently viable and there is only a few seconds of difference between them on paper, although a double medium choice could require more management.

This means if teams burn through one of their new sets of tyres for the sprint, then they will have to run with used mediums in the race.

Pirelli tyres

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Normally, a used set of tyres – the mediums will have done a few laps in a qualifying effort during SQ1 or SQ2 is not such a problem – but it could trigger some downside this time around because Brazil’s race could be a battle against tyre wear rather than keeping temperatures under control.

And the level of wear appears to be much higher than it is in the past because the new track surface is triggering some graining.

Pirelli’s chief engineer Simone Berra said: “We expected this with the new tarmac, with the new surface.

“It’s something that is quite usual, especially on the rear right, but it is also the front right inner half of the tread. And this graining level is affecting the acceleration of the wear in some regions.”

Berra reckoned there was no perfect way forward right now, as at some point teams on Saturday or Sunday were going to have to go with something that was not ideal.

“They have to make the correct choice,” he said. “We know that we were a little bit on the limit in terms of wear life, considering the new asphalt and the new compound selection.

“So, I think it creates a little bit different strategies, because with the new tarmac, the C3 (the current hard) should work quite well, and should have better performance compared to last year, when it was the medium and some teams struggled with.

“The C4 (the current medium) last year was really good, and we’ve seen this year as well that the C4 is not too bad.

“So, teams have to decide if they prefer to keep the two sets of hard compound, but also to keep some good sets, so not much used, mediums just to switch from one strategy to the other.

“Then we know that on Sunday there is a chance of rain, and this can change also the compound selection for the race. You would rather prefer not to use the hard, for example, and use the medium [in the damp] because of the higher grip level in these kind of conditions.

“Everything is very viable at the moment, and I think it’s making the racing interesting.”

Sebastian Vettel has tipped Max Verstappen to beat Lando Norris to the Formula 1 title this year, despite his car not being the fastest.

Verstappen is facing tremendous pressure to hold on to his world championship advantage, with Red Bull having been out developed over the 2024 season by main rivals McLaren and Ferrari.

Although the Dutchman holds a 47-points advantage in the drivers’ standings ahead of the Brazilian Grand Prix sprint, he knows that Norris has been chipping away at him since the summer break – and he could lose a lot of ground at Interlagos if McLaren is as quick as it has looked so far.

But despite the relative pace of the Red Bull and the McLaren, former Red Bull driver Vettel thinks that Verstappen is the one that still holds the advantage right now.

He thinks a combination of Verstappen’s driving confidence, plus Norris facing a renewed challenge from Ferrari, could be enough to prove decisive in how the drivers’ battle unfolds.

Speaking to Sky Germany, he said: “As much as I’d like us all to have a really exciting race right to the end, I think Max is now so hardened, so confident in his driving … we rarely see any mistakes from him, from his side.

“Even if his car is perhaps no longer quite as strong as it was at the start of the year, I still see him as the favourite. I think he’s still strong enough to always score enough points. And Lando is no longer in a position where he can win every race so easily.

“So, I would say that the role of favourite is clear – and lies with Max. But of course, as an independent spectator, I also hope that it will be even closer.”

Lando Norris, McLaren MCL38

Photo by: Andrew Ferraro / Motorsport Images

The Norris/Verstappen battle has become more intense in recent races, with the pair having controversial clashes at both the United States and Mexico Grands Prix.

And while Verstappen’s willingness to take things to the edge in his battle with Norris have left some suggesting the British drivers needs to get his elbows out more, McLaren says it does not want its driver to change his approach.

McLaren team principal Andrea Stella, said: “I think Lando is coping with this situation of being in the fight for the championship in a way that we are enjoying, first of all, I would say. He’s now a very mature driver.

“The race craft keeps improving all the time. The attitude, the learning from every situation, which we can appreciate almost on a race-by-race timescale. I think Lando is definitely now a mature driver to succeed in this kind of fight, which is a fight against one of the best drivers, I think, in the history of Formula 1.

“We just keep telling Lando all the time: keep doing what we are doing, let’s keep improving all the time, let’s become the best version of ourselves, race after race.”

Francesco Bagnaia has admitted he will need help from other riders to have any chance of winning the MotoGP world championship following his sprint crash on Saturday.

Falling out of the race on lap three while his title rival Jorge Martin went on to win meant Bagnaia’s points deficit grew from 17 to 29 points ahead of Sunday’s Malaysian Grand Prix.

This in turn puts Pramac Ducati rider Martin in a mathematical position to wrap up the title on Sunday, with one round still remaining.

The deficit is now such that Bagnaia concedes winning tomorrow’s race will not be enough if Martin simply follows him home second.

Although he would still theoretically be alive in the championship heading to the finale in that scenario, the factory Ducati rider knows he now needs other riders to take points off the Spaniard to have a realistic chance at the last round.

“Giving my maximum and winning the race will not be enough,” said Bagnaia. “So we will need something more.”

Jorge Martin, Pramac Racing, Francesco Bagnaia, Ducati Team

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

While a zero-score for Martin would be the ideal scenario for the Italian, the next-best thing would be for the likes of Marc Marquez (Gresini Ducati) and Enea Bastianini (factory Ducati) – who followed Martin home in the sprint – to take some points off the Spaniard on Sunday.

“Tomorrow I really hope Marc and Enea will find something to be close to us. [But the worst] case for Jorge [if nothing changes] is that he finishes second because we don’t have any rivals.

“But I will go like always tomorrow, I will try to win.”

After the sprint, Bagnaia also explained that he had not taken any additional risks heading into the tricky Turn 9 on the lap he fell.

The left-hander has caught out a number of riders so far on the Sepang weekend.

“As soon as I saw that Jorge started better, I waited and then I saw that the pace wasn’t that fast. So I thought, ‘okay, I will overtake, I will have a chance in the next laps’.

“On the first lap I was a bit too aggressive in that corner. I had a lot of movement from the front – and I didn’t crash.

“[Then] I said ‘okay, I will enter more calmly’. I was sure that the risk I was taking wasn’t over the limit. I was quite confident.

“I entered the corner a bit slower but I touched the bump at the apex and I lost the front.

“I don’t know how many laps I’ve done this weekend and in the past, and I’ve touched the bump many, many times without crashing. There is always a first time. It wasn’t the [ideal] moment but honestly, it’s something that can happen.

“It’s not the first time it has happened this season that I’ve told myself I will brake a bit [earlier] not to take any risk and I’ve crashed.”

Jorge Martin can seal the 2024 MotoGP title in the Malaysian Grand Prix after his nearest rival Francesco Bagnaia crashed out of Saturday’s sprint race at Sepang.

In what many see as the decisive moment in their championship scrap, Bagnaia lost the front end of his factory Ducati at the tricky uphill Turn 9 on lap 3 of 10, while running in second place behind Martin.

This has given the Pramac rider a massive 29-point lead in the championship standings, with just two grands prix and a sprint race left to run.

The 26-year-old will have his first match point in Sunday’s full-distance race as he aims to avenge for his title defeat to Bagnaia in 2023.

An early coronation could be crucial for the Spaniard, as the venue and date for the season finale is yet to be announced. Valencia was due to host the final round on 15-17 November, but heavy flooding in the region forced MotoGP to cancel the race just two weeks ahead of its scheduled date. A replacement round could take place in Jerez, Barcelona, Portimao or Qatar.

How Martin can wrap up the title in Malaysian GP

To put it into simple words, Martin needs to extend his lead by at least nine points in order to be crowned the 2024 champion in Malaysia.

That means he must finish at least seventh in order to put the title out of Bagnaia’s reach.

Given the speed both Martin and Bagnaia have shown so far this weekend, it is likely that the two will finish on the podium.

If Martin wins the race, his title rival must finish third or lower for the championship to be decided early. If Bagnaia is able to follow Martin home in second place, that will mean the title fight will continue into the finale – albeit with a mammoth 34-point gap between the two.

A second-place finish for Martin would be enough if Bagnaia fails to finish higher than fifth.

The final spot on the podium would also suffice if the two-time champion has a difficult race and cannot finish inside the top eight.

The championship fight will carry over to the final round if Bagnaia wins the race or finishes second irrespective of Martin’s finishing position.

The opposite scenario

Jorge Martin, Pramac Racing, Francesco Bagnaia, Ducati Team

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

No matter where Martin finishes on Sunday, he will head to the final round as the championship leader.

Even if Bagnaia wins the grand prix and Martin fails to score, the Spaniard will still hold a four-point lead in the standings.

While Martin has already put one hand on the title, Bagnaia’s only option is to score the maximum number of points on Sunday and then hope for a miracle in the season finale. A total of 37 points would then be on offer in the last round.

Here’s how the championship picture would look like if Bagnaia wins the Malaysian GP and Martin finishes second or lower: