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Causes, Risks, and the Economic Outlook

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Thailand’s economy experienced growth in Q4 driven by stronger domestic consumption and increased external demand

Thailand has officially entered a state of technical deflation, marked by ten straight months of declining inflation rates.

Key Takeaways on Thailand’s Technical Deflation

  • Definition & Context
    • Thailand has entered technical deflation, defined as a sustained decline in prices for more than six months.
    • Inflation has been negative for 10 consecutive months, averaging -0.13% in 2025.
  • Economic Risks
    • Deflation often signals weak demand: households consume less, businesses cut investments, and margins shrink.
    • Thailand’s growth slowed to 2.4% in 2025, raising concerns about a deflationary spiral similar to Japan’s post-1990 stagnation.
    • Deflation can cause consumers and businesses to delay spending and investment, worsening recessionary pressures.
  • Nuances in Thailand’s Case
    • Household consumption remains weak but still positive.
    • The Bank of Thailand emphasizes that underlying inflation (excluding energy) is still positive, framing this as “negative inflation” rather than full deflation.
    • Authorities expect recovery through tourism rebound and household consumption growth.

The statistics of the kingdom have shown for 10 months inflation results lower than the experts’ statistical forecasts (these being on average negative for the whole of 2025 with -0.13% annual average) according to Thanavath Phonvichai (the associate professor and president of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and chairman of the Economic and Trade Forecast Center) in technical deflation.

Although the growth forecasts for 2026 suggest a simultaneous recovery in inflation, it appears to show no signs of slowing down, which could have adverse effects on the Thai economy.

If Europe and the world are much more aware of the dangers of inflation, the opposite phenomenon remains rare since Covid and the recent global geopolitical crises are rather synonymous with rising raw material costs.

Price deflation is a general and long-lasting corollary, often indicative of a marked weakening in demand and economic activity. It reflects a deep slowdown: households consume less, businesses reduce their investments and margins contract.

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The Thai case, however, appears more nuanced. The growth and consumption of households in the kingdom are certainly at half-mast but appear positive. Experts define a «technical deflation» as a lasting decrease in prices for more than 6 months due, according to Phonvichai, to the general decrease in fuel costs and agricultural prices.

Government measures also pushed global prices down, the consumer price index (CPI) dropped by -0.66% at the beginning of 2026 compared to the same month last year, more than expected.

Nevertheless, Bank of Thailand reassures and talks more about negative inflation, highlighting that the figures for underlying inflation (excluding energy costs) remain positive.  Under the vigilance of the kingdom’s economic institutions, the financial system remains. More than a classic deflationary episode, Thailand would go through a cyclical adjustment, prelude to an upturn due to the increase in household consumption and the recovery of tourism, planned by those same authorities.

The possibility of a return to deflation cannot be ruled out, says Thanavath Phonvichai. Indeed, the weak growth that the country is experiencing (2.4% in 2025) may, if monetary and budgetary policies to restart the kingdom’s growth can degenerate into a deflationary spiral.

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A scenario feared by the economic authorities of the country of smiles, given the consequences it had on Japan after the crash of 1990. Deflation indeed pushes consumers and all economic actors to wait: they postpone their investments in anticipation of lower prices, demand collapses, companies suffer revenue losses, cut jobs creating a loop in which the economy sinks into a deeper recession.

This scenario also concerns and worries the Chinese neighbor, which has been observing a slowdown in its dynamic real estate sector and household consumption since 2023. 

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Thailand’s exports soared 24.4% in January 2026, marking the highest trade growth in four years

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US trade deficit in goods reaches record high with Thailand, Vietnam, and Taiwan

Thailand recorded its strongest trade growth in four years in January 2026, with exports jumping 24.4% and imports rising 29.4%, far exceeding economic forecasts.

This surge was primarily driven by a global “upcycle” in demand for electronics related to artificial intelligence and data centers, providing a significant boost to the Thai economy as the government navigates complex trade relations with the United States and China.

Key Points

  • Thai exports and imports reached their highest growth rates since late 2021, fueled by outbound electronic shipments and high demand for raw materials and machinery.
  • Trade officials attributed the export spike to genuine demand for AI-related technology rather than the transshipment of Chinese goods through Thailand to avoid tariffs.
  • Thailand maintained a $4.8 billion trade surplus with the United States in January, while running a $7.2 billion trade deficit with China.
  • The Commerce Ministry is prioritizing continued trade talks with the U.S. to maintain cooperation and mitigate the impact of proposed 15% global tariffs.
  • The strong trade data provides political momentum for Caretaker Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s coalition government, which has pledged to improve Thailand’s economic growth relative to its regional competitors.

The Ministry of Commerce clarified that the export spike is a result of genuine demand rather than the transshipment of Chinese goods. This economic boost arrives as the caretaker government looks to accelerate Thailand’s growth to remain competitive with other major Southeast Asian economies.

What specific technological trends contributed to the 24.4% jump in Thai exports in January 2026?

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the specific technological trends and factors that contributed to the 24.4% jump in Thai exports are:

  • Artificial Intelligence (AI): The surge was primarily driven by high global demand for electronic components specifically related to AI technology.
  • Data Centers: There was a significant “upcycle” in demand for electronics tied to the development and operation of data centers.
  • Electronics Sector Upcycle: The broader electronics industry experienced a growth phase, leading to increased outbound shipments of electronic products.
  • Inbound Demand for Infrastructure: While exports rose, the document also notes stronger demand for raw materials and machinery, which supported the overall trade activity linked to these sectors.

The Ministry of Commerce, specifically Nantapong Chiralerspong (Director-General of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office), clarified that this spike was a result of genuine demand for these specific technologies rather than the transshipment of Chinese goods through Thailand to avoid tariffs

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Savannah Guthrie

Savannah Guthrie has taken to social media to announce that her family is willing to pay up to US$1 million (approximately $1.41 million) for information that can lead to the whereabouts of her mom Nancy.

Nancy Guthrie has been missing since February 1.

Guthrie Family Raises Reward

In a video posted on social media, Savannah Guthrie also acknowledged the possibility that her mom may already have passed away.

“We also know that she may be lost, she may already be gone,” she tearfully said in the video. “She may already have gone home to the Lord that she loves and is dancing in Heaven… and if this is what is to be, then we will accept it.”

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“But we need to know where she is,” the “Today” host emphasized. “We need her to come home.”

According to PEOPLE, the family also donated US$500,000 to the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children.

A source close to the family also explained to PEOPLE why the family chose to raise the reward. The FBI’s reward of US$100,000 (approximately $141,000) remains active.

“The family first raised this on the first day of the investigation and has been ready to do this ever since,” the source said.

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The source added, “They were advised by all involved in the investigation that doing so earlier might overwhelm the infrastructure set up to field leads, tens of thousands of which have been coming in organically.”

Savannah Guthrie’s full video is available below.

Nancy Guthrie Is Still Missing

Since her February 1 disappearance, Nancy Guthrie has yet to be found. She is believed to have been kidnapped by an armed man.

Nancy Guthrie’s surveillance cameras were able to capture the masked man, and the FBI described him as “male, approximately 5’9″ – 5’10” tall, with an average build.”

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However, authorities are not ruling out that this masked man may have had an accomplice.

Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos said that the search for the “Today” show host’s mom could take years.

“Maybe it’s an hour from now,” Nanos said, per The New York Times. “Maybe it’s weeks or months or years from now. But we won’t quit. We’re going to find Nancy. We’re going to find this guy.”

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Ensure Compliance With Email Authentication Standards

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An online SPF checker is a purpose-built diagnostic tool that verifies your Sender Policy Framework configuration in DNS and helps ensure SPF compliance across every domain name you manage.

An online SPF checker is a purpose-built diagnostic tool that verifies your Sender Policy Framework configuration in DNS and helps ensure SPF compliance across every domain name you manage.

By running an SPF check or SPF record check, you confirm that your SPF record correctly lists authorized senders, including the IP addresses and subnets used by your outbound mail servers and service providers. Done regularly, an SPF lookup and SPF validation workflow reduces email delivery friction, supports email security goals, and improves overall email deliverability.

A modern SPF checker pairs SPF record lookup with a readable SPF result and clear guidance to correct SPF errors. Many SPF validator interfaces include a DNS lookup to resolve includes, flatten indirect references, and highlight SPF record issues such as too many DNS-mechanism lookups, missing all mechanisms, or ambiguous qualifiers. Because email authentication is cumulative, an SPF checker is most effective when combined with a DMARC record, DKIM record, and policies that address spoofing, phishing prevention, and fraud prevention at the domain level.

Use an SPF validator whenever you add a new sending platform, change authorized IP ranges, or alter routing. Frequent SPF checks help you catch SPF validation errors early, maintain SPF compliance, and protect sender identity before delivery issues arise. Before sending a bulk email campaign, it’s always a smart idea to perform an SPF check online to ensure your domain is properly authenticated and protected against spoofing.

Why SPF Matters: Role in Email Authentication and Brand Protection

SPF is the Sender Policy Framework that lets a domain name publish which hosts are authorized senders of mail for that domain. Receiving MTAs evaluate SPF during email delivery to determine whether the connecting server’s IP addresses (or broader subnets) are permitted. This SPF validation step combats email spoofing, reduces security risk from malicious senders, and contributes to domain security and domain authentication.

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  • Brand protection and sender reputation: Accurate SPF configuration helps reduce spam sent in your name, strengthens sender reputation, and supports inbox placement. In tandem with DMARC and DKIM, SPF contributes to a layered defense against email-based threats.
  • Deliverability and diagnostics: Consistent SPF record check routines uncover SPF errors that can harm email deliverability. When you analyze headers with an email header analyzer, you can see the SPF result aligned with the authenticated domain, aiding prompt resolution of authentication issues.
  • Governance and compliance check: Many mailbox providers and industry frameworks expect minimum authentication with SPF, DKIM, and DMARC. Routine SPF check and SPF record lookup cycles serve as a practical compliance and security safeguard.

How SPF Works and How to Interpret Results

MAIL FROM and Return-Path Flow

During SMTP, the sending server declares the envelope sender in the MAIL FROM command (also recorded in the Return-Path). The receiving server performs an SPF lookup on the domain name in MAIL FROM, compares the connecting host’s IP addresses against the SPF record, and returns an SPF result (pass, fail, softfail, neutral, none, temperror, permerror). That SPF result helps determine email delivery disposition and is often visible when you analyze headers for diagnostics.

If MAIL FROM is empty (bounce messages), SPF switches to checking the HELO/EHLO identity. Accurate configuration ensures the correct sender identity is authenticated even for system-generated mail.

DNS TXT Records and Evaluation Order

SPF is published as a DNS TXT record at the domain root or a relevant subdomain. A DNS record checker or DNS lookup reveals the TXT string beginning with “v=spf1”. The evaluation order processes mechanisms from left to right until a match is found. Well-formed records enumerate authorized senders via mechanisms and optionally constrain them to specific subnets. A robust SPF validator traces includes and a records, flags DNS-related SPF errors, and assesses overall SPF compliance.

Evaluation and Lookup Limits

  • SPF lookups are limited to 10 mechanisms/modifiers that cause DNS queries (include, a, mx, ptr, exists, redirect). An SPF checker will warn if your SPF validation encounters too many lookups.
  • Redundant or contradictory entries are common SPF record issues and may yield SPF validation errors or permerror outcomes.
  • Mailbox providers may treat softfail and neutral as increased risk level. Periodic monitoring with a domain scanner and diagnostics can identify such security gaps before they affect email health.

SPF Record Lookup and Interpreting the SPF Result

An SPF record lookup confirms that the SPF record exists and resolves all referenced hosts. A comprehensive SPF check correlates the connecting IP with the authorized IP list and returns a pass when alignment is met. Failed lookups or misconfigured includes often produce SPF errors with delivery issues. To maintain email security and email deliverability:

Use an online tool to run an SPF test whenever you onboard a new sender or change subnets.

Perform diagnostic tests that simulate connections from each authorized IP range.

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Capture failures report data via DMARC to prioritize prompt resolution and risk assessment.

SPF Syntax and the Compliance Landscape

SPF Record Syntax Explained

SPF record syntax is built from mechanisms, qualifiers, and modifiers that define which systems can send for your domain name.

Mechanisms, Qualifiers, and Modifiers at a Glance

  • Mechanisms: ip4, ip6, a, mx, include, exists, ptr (discouraged), all
  • Qualifiers: + (pass, implicit), – (fail), ~ (softfail), ? (neutral)
  • Modifiers: redirect=, exp=

A typical record: v=spf1 ip4:203.0.113.0/24 include:_spf.example.net -all

How they work:

  • ip4/ip6: Enumerate authorized IP addresses and subnets for explicit allowlisting.
  • a/mx: Authorize the A or MX records of the domain or a specified host.
  • include: Delegate authorization to another domain’s SPF record (e.g., a SaaS sender).
  • all: Catch-all at the end, typically -all for strict SPF compliance or ~all during testing.
  • redirect: Point SPF evaluation to another domain name’s record for centralized control.

An SPF checker or SPF raw checker will parse these elements, perform SPF record lookup on includes, and surface SPF validation errors such as unexpected mechanisms, unused modifiers, or broken DNS references.

Examples and Common Pitfalls

v=spf1 ip4:198.51.100.10/32 include:_spf.mailhost.com include:_spf.marketingplatform.com -all

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  • Avoid exceeding 10 DNS-mechanism lookups; flatten includes if needed.
  • Subdomain-specific senders:

v=spf1 a mx ip4:192.0.2.0/27 -all

  • Be precise with subnets to prevent unintended authorization.
  • Gradual rollout with softfail:

v=spf1 include:_spf.example.net ~all

  • Move to -all after monitoring DMARC data and confirming no legitimate sources are blocked.

Helpful tooling:

  • SPF record generator to compose correct syntax.
  • Record checker and DNS record checker to validate publication.
  • Email header analyzer to correlate SPF result with real traffic and inbox placement outcomes.

Compliance Landscape: RFC 7208, Google/Yahoo, and Industry Standards

SPF is standardized by RFC 7208, which defines processing rules, lookup limits, and error handling. Aligning with RFC 7208 ensures interoperable SPF validation and reduces authentication issues across diverse DNS providers and MTAs.

Minimum Authentication for Major Providers

  • Google and Yahoo sender requirements emphasize minimum authentication with SPF and DKIM, plus DMARC alignment for bulk senders. Maintain consistent SPF alignment with your visible domain, publish a DMARC record with an appropriate policy, and ensure a passing DKIM record for your streams. Supporting controls like BIMI record, MTA-STS, and TLS-RPT enhance domain security and email protection but do not replace SPF.
  • Conduct a compliance check periodically: run an SPF check, a DKIM checker, and a DMARC checker, then verify BIMI where applicable. Use MX Lookup to confirm routing and screen Blacklists to protect domain reputation.

Monitoring, Reporting, and the Tooling Ecosystem

Operational excellence requires continuous monitoring, reputation monitoring, and reporting. Consider a stack that includes:

  • MxToolBox SuperTool for DNS lookup, SPF lookup, DMARC, and Diagnostics.
  • EasyDMARC for Managed DMARC, Delivery Center, Alert Manager, Email Verification, and an Email Deliverability Test; educational resources such as Academy EasyDMARC help teams master email policies.
  • Domain Scanner and Email Health dashboards to scan domain configurations, surface security gaps, and track domain health.
  • Email Header Analyzer to analyze headers, correlate SPF result and DKIM outcomes, and spot authentication issues.
  • Phishing Link Checker and TouchPoint to support phishing prevention and email-based threats analysis.

Many platforms integrate record checker utilities, SPF test runners, and an SPF raw checker. Vendors like EasyDMARC and MxToolBox often appear on G2 Crowd, SourceForge, Channel Program, and Expert Insights; review feedback to select an online tool that matches your risk level, reporting needs, and alerting preferences. For managed environments, MSP Program offerings help standardize SPF configuration and periodic monitoring across client portfolios, with failures report insights enabling prompt resolution.

Best practices:

  • Schedule periodic monitoring to query domain records, validate SPF compliance, and perform diagnostic tests after any SPF configuration change.
  • Use a domain scanner to discover shadow senders; verify each authorized IP and include, and remove stale entries to reduce security risk.
  • Pair SPF with DMARC enforcement for fraud prevention and domain authentication at scale, improving email deliverability and reducing delivery issues.

By embedding a disciplined SPF record check routine—complete with SPF validator reviews, SPF record lookup automation, and continuous diagnostics—you harden email security, safeguard sender identity, and sustain the email delivery performance your brand and customers expect.

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