Bitcoin (BTC) continued its downward trajectory in February, trading at $64,492, nearly 50% below its early October all-time high (ATH) price.

Yet, price action tells only part of the story. According to River, Bitcoin adoption accelerated last year, with institutions, banks, merchants, public companies, and even nation-states increasing their exposure.

Is Bitcoin’s 50% Decline Masking a Structural Bullish Trend?

BeInCrypto recently reported that the crypto market has slipped into extreme fear, with retail investors growing increasingly pessimistic about Bitcoin’s price. This sentiment is reflected in a surge of “Bitcoin going to zero” searches, which recently reached an all-time high.

The price drawdown has also weighed on institutional participants. Crypto hedge funds have pulled back from the market.

“With Bitcoin and ETH continuing to slide, crypto hedge funds have retreated to cash. Their average cash levels are currently 15.32%, the highest in almost a year,” Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, told BeInCrypto.

Moreover, recent disclosures show that in Q4 2025, institutional investors also trimmed their Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) exposure.

However, when viewed from a broader perspective, the long-term adoption trajectory remains constructive. In a recent market report, River highlighted that the largest cryptocurrency’s adoption surged in 2025.

“There is no bear market in bitcoin adoption. Bitcoin is down 50% from all-time highs, but adoption is compounding in ways that aren’t affecting the price, yet,” the post read.

According to River, institutions collectively added approximately 829,000 BTC in 2025. This figure includes purchases from businesses, governments, funds, and ETFs.

Registered investment advisors allocated close to $1.5 billion per quarter into Bitcoin ETFs over the past two years. Notably, none of those quarters recorded net outflows. 

Although exposure among RIAs is widespread, with 29 of the 30 largest US firms holding positions, portfolio allocations remain minimal, averaging 0.008%.

Businesses emerged as the largest buyers in 2025. They added $54 billion worth of Bitcoin to their balance sheets during the year. 

Bitcoin treasury companies account for the majority of corporate holdings, collectively controlling 866,000 BTC. At the same time, the number of publicly listed firms with Bitcoin holdings rose to 194.

At the sovereign level, five nations became new Bitcoin holders in 2025, including purchases linked to two sovereign wealth funds, Luxembourg and Saudi Arabia, as well as the Czech Republic’s central bank. In total, 23 nation-states now hold Bitcoin.

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“Trust in bitcoin has grown faster than that of any asset in history. What began as an experiment is now a globally recognized store-of-value, with adoption patterns that rival the internet,” River wrote.

US Businesses Embrace Bitcoin Payments

Beyond direct accumulation, payment adoption expanded materially. The number of US merchants accepting Bitcoin payments tripled during the year. Furthermore, global usage increased by 74%.

Meanwhile, development activity within traditional finance continues. Approximately 60% of the 25 largest US banks are building Bitcoin products, indicating ongoing institutional integration.

River stated that the current wave of adoption is unlikely to trigger an immediate 10-fold price surge for Bitcoin. However, the firm argued that this type of steady integration may carry greater significance.

Looking ahead, River said it expects adoption to accelerate meaningfully over the coming years as broader participation deepens.

Meta targets H2 2026 for stablecoin creator payouts, enabled by Stripe’s Bridge under new U.S. rules.

Meta Platforms Inc. is preparing to integrate stablecoin payments across its social media platforms in the second half of 2026 through a third-party provider, CoinDesk reported, citing three people familiar with the plans.

The company has issued requests for proposals to external infrastructure firms, with Stripe emerging as the likely partner, according to the report. Stripe CEO Patrick Collison joined Meta’s board in April 2025.

The initiative marks a shift from Meta’s previous stablecoin effort. The company’s 2019 Libra project, later rebranded as Diem, faced intense regulatory opposition and was ultimately abandoned. Libra was designed as a global currency backed by a basket of assets, which regulators viewed as an attempt by a private company to build sovereign-scale monetary infrastructure.

According to Fortune reporting from May 2025, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg told Stripe’s John Collison that the Diem project was dead.

The current approach differs significantly from the earlier effort. Meta will not mint its own stablecoin but will instead integrate existing stablecoin infrastructure, positioning itself as a distribution channel rather than an issuer, according to a source who told CoinDesk the company wants to pursue the initiative “at arm’s length.”

The likely integration partner is Stripe’s Bridge platform, which received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a national trust bank charter in February 2026.

The timeline of developments includes Stripe’s acquisition of Bridge for approximately $1.1 billion in October 2024, Collison’s appointment to Meta’s board in April 2025, and Bridge’s OCC conditional approval in February 2026, the same month Meta sent out requests for proposals.

In its 2025 annual letter, Stripe reported that Bridge’s transaction volume quadrupled as stablecoin adoption expanded beyond cryptocurrency market cycles. “Stablecoin payments are advancing quietly and inexorably as real-world uptake continues apace,” the company stated.

Meta’s focus centers on reducing costs for international creator payouts, particularly small transfers around $100 that currently face high wire transfer and foreign exchange fees. The company’s platforms, including Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, serve approximately 3 billion users globally.

Stablecoin integration could reduce costs for cross-border settlements and accelerate payout speeds compared to traditional banking systems, according to the CoinDesk report. The move would also position Meta competitively against X and Telegram in developing super app functionality.

The regulatory environment has shifted since Meta’s earlier stablecoin attempt. The GENIUS Act, signed by President Donald Trump in July 2025, established the first federal legal framework for U.S. stablecoin issuers, contrasting with the regulatory opposition that existed between 2019 and 2022.

Bridge’s pursuit of an OCC charter reflects the new regulatory approach, operating within a federal framework rather than outside it.

Several implementation details remain unclear, including which specific stablecoins Meta will support, whether transactions will be on-chain or abstracted from blockchain infrastructure, how the company will handle wallet custody and compliance requirements, and whether non-U.S. markets will serve as initial testing grounds.

Meta declined to comment on the reported plans. Stripe did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The second half of February has seen the dollar index strengthen, driven by a combination of bullish factors:

→ A hawkish Fed stance. Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting revealed differing views on rate cuts. With inflation remaining resilient, some members even left the door open to further tightening.

→ Rising tensions between the US and Iran, along with uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs, have boosted demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

→ Recent data pointing to solid industrial output and labour market resilience have reinforced confidence in the strength of the US economy.

As a result, an upward trend line (shown in blue) has formed on the DXY chart, increasing the likelihood that the index will finish February in positive territory after three consecutive months of decline.

Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart

On 16 February, when analysing the dollar index (DXY), we:

→ Updated the descending channel (marked in red), originating in November 2025.
→ Highlighted strong demand, reflected in the confident upward trajectory (shown by the arrow) following the brief break below the multi-month low of 96.50 in late January.

Lower highs at points A and B suggest that the upper boundary of the channel continues to act as resistance, while the hesitant price action after breaking the 5 February high indicates waning bullish momentum. This raises the possibility that the blue uptrend line could soon come under pressure from renewed bearish attempts.

On the other hand, there are clear signs of active demand near the key 96.50 level. Therefore, in the longer term, bulls may regain strength and attempt to overturn the broader downtrend.

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Aerodrome Finance price climbed 12% over the past 24 hours, drawing renewed attention from traders. Despite the sharp uptick, AERO remains locked in a broader sideways structure.

This consolidation phase reflects cautious optimism rather than confirmed breakout strength. While short-term momentum improved, sustained upside requires stronger follow-through.

AERO Holders Exhibit Optimism

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator signals improving macro sentiment for Aerodrome Finance. Outflows that peaked around early December 2025 have steadily declined. Inflows now dominate, suggesting capital is returning to AERO. This shift indicates investors are gradually rebuilding exposure.

CMF currently sits at a three-and-a-half-month high. Elevated readings often reflect sustained buying pressure rather than short-lived speculation. Strengthening inflows point to growing confidence among participants. This macro bullishness may provide structural support for further price appreciation.

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Futures market data reinforces the constructive outlook. AERO contracts are currently skewed toward long positions. Traders are positioning for potential upside continuation. Long exposure stands at approximately $2.35 million, reflecting notable bullish interest.

The $0.351 resistance level remains a critical barrier. A move above this threshold would trigger a significant short liquidation cluster worth roughly $623,560. Forced short covering can accelerate upward momentum. Such dynamics often amplify breakouts in volatile crypto markets.

AERO Price Is Awaiting a Breakout

AERO is trading at $0.327 at the time of writing after posting a 12% daily gain. Despite the surge, the token remains within its consolidation range. Current technical and derivatives signals present a cautiously bullish outlook. However, confirmation depends on overcoming immediate resistance.

Breaching the $0.352 barrier is essential for a sustained breakout. Clearing this level would likely trigger short liquidations and strengthen bullish momentum. The Squeeze Momentum indicator shows compression building, while the histogram reflects underlying strength. A squeeze release could propel AERO toward $0.400.

Downside risks persist if buyers fail to maintain control. Continued consolidation between $0.352 and $0.292 would signal hesitation. A breakdown below $0.292 would weaken the bullish structure. Further losses could push AERO toward $0.273 or even $0.243, invalidating the current recovery thesis.

BTC is down ~28% this month; Glassnode’s sub‑1 realized P/L ratio signals 5–6 more months of downside pressure.

Bitcoin has approached previous highs following a sharp decline in February, though blockchain analytics firm Glassnode has indicated further downward pressure may persist for several months, according to the company’s recent analysis.

Glassnode reported that Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio, measured as a 90-day moving average, has fallen below 1. The firm stated this metric suggests the decline could continue for an additional five to six months.

In a post on social media platform X, Glassnode cited historical data showing that drops in the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio below 1 have preceded decline periods lasting at least six months. The firm noted that a return above 1 generally indicates a decrease in selling pressure.

The analytics company referenced the 2022 and 2018 bear markets as comparative examples. During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin declined 25% in value six months after its profit/loss ratio fell below 1, according to Glassnode. Under similar conditions in 2018, Bitcoin experienced a drop exceeding 50% over five months.

Glassnode stated that if historical patterns repeat, the cryptocurrency’s price could continue its downward trend for five months or longer.

The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio measures the ratio of profits to losses realized on the Bitcoin network, providing insight into market sentiment and selling pressure among holders.

BTC is down ~50% from ATH, with 74% LTH profit shrinking as supply in loss hits 50% amid multi‑month selling.

Bitcoin long-term holders currently hold an average profit of approximately 74%, though that margin continues to decline as the cryptocurrency’s price moves closer to their cost basis, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.

The analyst noted that historical bear market cycles have been characterized by prices breaking below the long-term holder cost basis, triggering capitulation phases marked by realized losses of around 20%. Long-term holders are defined as investors known to be less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations, Darkfost stated.

Market recovery and bull phase entry have historically occurred only after such capitulation events, according to the analysis.

Glassnode reported that the 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen below 1, confirming a transition into an excess loss-realization regime. The blockchain analytics firm stated that these bearish conditions have historically persisted for at least six months before liquidity returns to markets.

Analyst James Check reported that Bitcoin has recorded nearly five consecutive red monthly candles following the largest volatility spike of the current cycle. Check observed that one-week realized volatility spiked above 150%, a level typically associated with capitulation events, and that weekly RSI has reached one of the most oversold readings in Bitcoin’s history. A significant amount of Bitcoin has migrated to new holders in a high price range this year, according to Check’s analysis.

Bitcoin supply in loss reached 10 million coins, the fourth-highest reading on record, analyst James Van Straten reported. Van Straten noted that circulating supply will reach 20 million Bitcoin next week, with 50% held at a loss. Historical patterns suggest such capital destruction levels are sufficient for a bear market bottom, according to Van Straten.

Bitcoin experienced a minor price rebound during early Asian trading hours, though bearish sentiment remains dominant in the market. The price movement formed another lower high while a key support level continues to hold, according to technical analysis.

Crypto bank Anchorage Digital said it now holds Strategy’s perpetual preferred security STRC on its balance sheet, adding an institutional backer to Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin treasury company at a time when Wall Street traders are increasingly betting against it.

In a Wednesday post on X, Anchorage co-founder and CEO Nathan McCauley said the purchase shows alignment between two companies built around Bitcoin (BTC) infrastructure and corporate treasury adoption. “Conviction compounds. Institutions don’t just talk about Bitcoin, they structure around it,” McCauley wrote.

“When the company that operationalizes Bitcoin infrastructure puts capital alongside the company that operationalized the Bitcoin treasury strategy…that’s a signal,” he added. Anchorage did not reveal the size or timing of the position.

According to Strategy’s website, STRC is a Nasdaq-listed perpetual preferred security marketed as a short-duration, high-yield instrument. The shares pay an 11.25% annual dividend distributed monthly in cash. Capital raised through the instrument has historically financed the firm’s continued Bitcoin accumulation.

Related: Michael Saylor says quantum threat to Bitcoin is more than 10 years away

Strategy becomes Wall Street’s most-shorted stock

Anchorage’s purchase comes as Strategy has climbed to the top of Goldman Sachs’ list of most-shorted large-cap US equities by short interest as a percentage of market capitalization. A year ago, it did not rank among the top 50. The company began rising on the list in late 2025 as its share price weakened even before Bitcoin peaked in October.

Short selling involves borrowing shares and selling them with the expectation of repurchasing later at a lower price. Losses can grow if the stock rises.

Strategy functions as a leveraged public-equity proxy for Bitcoin. It issues securities and deploys the proceeds into BTC. Gains can amplify during rallies, while downturns magnify pressure on the share price.

The company currently holds 717,722 Bitcoin worth about $46.68 billion at current market prices. On Monday, it announced another purchase, acquiring 592 BTC for $39.8 million. The coins were acquired at an average cost of roughly $76,020, leaving the company sitting on an estimated $7 billion unrealized loss with Bitcoin trading near $66,000.

Related: Michael Saylor hints at Strategy’s 100th Bitcoin buy

Strategy plans debt-to-equity shift

Last week, Strategy founder Michael Saylor said the company intends to convert roughly $6 billion in convertible bond debt into equity, replacing repayment obligations with newly issued shares. The change would lower leverage on the balance sheet by turning bondholders into shareholders, though it could dilute existing investors.