Solana price has rebounded nearly 9% after falling to around $75 on February 23, and it is still holding most of those gains above $82.

This kind of bounce normally attracts strong buyers because it suggests the worst may be over. But that is not what is happening this time. The investors who usually step in during recoveries — long-term holders — are stepping back instead. This creates an unusual disconnect between price and conviction, and it helps explain why Solana’s rebound is already facing pressure.

Long-Term Holder Buying Has Dropped Nearly 62% Despite the Price Bounce

The clearest sign of weakening conviction comes from the HODLer Net Position Change metric. This indicator measures how much long-term holders, defined as wallets holding Solana for more than 155 days, are adding or reducing over a rolling 30-day period.

On February 10, long-term holders added about 1.5 million SOL. By February 24, that number had fallen sharply to just 564,317 SOL. This marks a drop of about 62.5% in accumulation within two weeks. This decline happened even as Solana’s price stabilized and rebounded, which makes the shift especially important.

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In simple terms, Solana’s strongest holders were buying aggressively earlier in the month, but that confidence has faded significantly. When accumulation falls this sharply, it suggests these investors are no longer convinced the current bounce is the start of a sustained recovery. Despite the SOL price bounce, the Hodler positioning is at its lowest monthly level.

Disclaimer: This does not mean long-term holders are heavily selling, but it shows their buying momentum has weakened sharply.

This shift is not limited to the oldest holders. Mid-term holders, who have held Solana between one month and three months, have also been reducing their exposure. Their share of total supply fell from 19.52% on January 25 to about 14.08% on February 24. This represents a 27.9% relative decline in their supply share in just one month.

What makes this important is the timing. This reduction persisted even as Solana’s price rose over the past two days. Instead of buying the rebound, many holders appear to be using it as an opportunity to exit.

A 22 Million SOL Supply Wall Is Blocking the Recovery

The lack of strong buying becomes more concerning when combined with Solana’s cost basis distribution data, which reveals where investors last bought their coins.

This data shows a major concentration of supply between $82.81 and $83.79. More than 22.16 million SOL was accumulated in this range. This is one of the largest supply clusters currently sitting above the price.

This range represents a break-even zone for many holders who bought earlier and held through the previous dips. When price returns to their entry level, these investors often sell to recover losses or reduce risk in a weaker market.

This helps explain why Solana’s rebound is already slowing near $82.91. The price is running into a large group of holders waiting to exit at break-even.

At the same time, long-term holder accumulation has already dropped by more than 60%, which means there are fewer strong buyers available to absorb this supply. This imbalance between sellers and buyers makes it harder for the rebound to continue.

Solana Price Path Still Points to a 17% Drop

Solana’s technical structure adds another layer of risk to the current rebound. Before this bounce, Solana confirmed a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern and dropped to around $75.69.

Even after the recent rebound, the projected downside target from that pattern still points toward the $68.71 region. From the current price near $82.52, a drop to $68.71 would represent an additional decline of about 17%. This means the recent 9% bounce has not yet invalidated the broader bearish structure. Moreover, Solana tried to cross the $82.91 mark but failed, largely due to the supply cluster around that level highlighted earlier.

For the recovery to strengthen, Solana must first break and hold above $82.91, which is the immediate resistance created by the supply cluster. If that level is cleared, the next resistance sits near $86.82. A move above $91.33 would fully invalidate the bearish pattern and confirm that the downtrend has ended.

However, continued rejection at $82.91 would increase downside risk.

If Solana falls below $80.89 again, it could quickly retest $74.96. A break below that would reopen the path toward $68.71 and other lower levels, which remain the active downside projection from the bearish pattern.

TLDR:

• • South Korea’s Democratic Party is drafting bills requiring finfluencers to disclose crypto holdings and compensation before advising followers.
    
  • Reports of illegal investment advisory activity surged from 132 cases in 2018 to 1,724 cases in 2024, prompting stricter oversight.
    
  • Penalties for finfluencer violations are expected to match existing laws on market manipulation and pre-emptive trading in Korea.
  • Researchers are calling for pre-monitoring, post-sanctions, and added social media rules to protect retail crypto investors from misleading advice.

South Korea is proposing a law that would require finfluencers to disclose their crypto holdings. Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Seung-won is leading the push with two amendment bills.

The legislation targets influencers who advise followers on stocks and virtual assets through social media. Holdings, compensation, and asset quantities would all need to be made public. Reports of illegal investment advisory activity have risen sharply in recent years, prompting the move.

Proposed Bill Targets Crypto Finfluencers Operating Without Disclosure

Rep. Kim Seung-won, a member of the National Assembly’s Political Affairs Committee, is preparing the amendments.

One bill proposes changes to the Capital Markets Act, while the other targets the Virtual Asset Users Protection Act. Together, they would require crypto finfluencers to reveal what they hold before advising others to buy or sell. This applies to those who give repeated advice or charge fees for investment guidance.

The rules would cover advice shared through social media, broadcasts, publications, and other communications. A presidential decree would set the exact boundaries of who falls under the law.

Penalties for non-compliance are expected to match those for market manipulation and pre-emptive trading. This places crypto finfluencers under the same legal standards as other financial market participants.

Rep. Kim explained the reasoning behind the proposal, stating that “so-called fink influencers are appearing who give advice on investment decisions to an unspecified number of people without receiving compensation from positions that can have a great influence on the public.”

He pointed to a growing number of influencers advising large audiences without revealing their own crypto positions.

When influencers hold assets they promote without disclosure, it raises serious conflict-of-interest concerns. The bill directly addresses this gap by making transparency a legal requirement.

The Financial Supervisory Service recorded 1,724 reports of illegal advisory activity in 2024, up from just 132 in 2018. That increase spans only six years and reflects how quickly the problem has grown.

The rise of online and social media channels has made it far easier to reach investors without proper credentials. Crypto markets, in particular, have seen a surge in influencer-driven trading activity.

Korea Aligns With Global Push to Regulate Crypto Finfluencer Activity

Other major markets have already moved to regulate finfluencer conduct. The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority requires pre-approval of all promoted financial products, including digital assets.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission and FINRA have issued fines against influencers who violated disclosure rules. South Korea’s proposal follows the same direction these regulators have already taken.

Ahn Yu-mi, a senior researcher at the Capital Market Research Institute, noted that “the number of registered pseudo-investment advisory firms has increased significantly as sales channels have been mainly online.”

She added that this shift has also expanded “the possibility of detecting illegal and unsound acts.” However, she stressed that detection alone does not protect investors from harm. A structured oversight system covering both finfluencers and the institutions working with them is still needed.

Ahn further stated that “considering the ever-increasing influence and risk of pininfluencers, a strong management system such as pre-monitoring and post-sanctions by financial authorities is required.”

She also called for financial authorities to “continuously monitor finfluencies and financial institutions that use them.” On top of that, she recommended “the establishment of additional rules to be followed when providing financial information through social media.”

Without formal rules in place, the gap between influencer reach and regulatory oversight will only continue to widen.

South Korea’s proposal reflects a broader shift in how governments are responding to crypto finfluencer activity. As virtual asset markets grow, so does the need for rules that protect investors from undisclosed conflicts of interest.

Bitcoin BTC$65,121.75 bounced back to $67,500 during Wednesday’s U.S. morning session, gaining more than 5% over the past 24 hours as deeply bearish positioning across the crypto market began to unwind.

The move sparked a broader relief rally across altcoins. Ethereum’s ether (ETH) surged 10%, reclaiming the $2,000 level for the first time in a week. Solana (SOL), DOGE$0.09290, ADA$0.2663 and Chainlink LINK$8.4681 each advanced more than 10%, outperforming bitcoin and the broad-market benchmark CoinDesk 20 Index’s gains.

Wednesday’s bounce follows a period of extremely negative sentiment across the market. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a popular sentiment gauge, has been hovering in Extreme Fear levels for most of February.

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Perpetual futures funding rates — the periodic payments between long and short traders — had also turned negative multiple times over the past weeks. This means short sellers have been paying longs to maintain positions, a sign that bearish bets had become crowded. Such setups often leave markets vulnerable to sharp squeezes higher when prices begin to rise.

The rebound has liquidated over $307 million in leveraged bearish bets across crypto derivatives over the past 24 hours, CoinGlass data shows. Notably, bitcoin perpetual funding rates remain below neutral even amid the rally, suggesting the move isn’t being driven by aggressive leveraged speculation.

Crypto stocks gain

Crypto-related equities also joined the advance. Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) jumped 20% after an earnings beat, while Coinbase (COIN), bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) and Galaxy (GLXY) gained 5%-6%. Bitcoin miners — increasingly tied to AI infrastructure themes — extended their rebound, with Bitfarms (BITF), Bitdeer (BTDR) and MARA Holdings (MARA) leading gains.

Many crypto-linked stocks had built up sizable short interest from hedge funds, 10x Research’s Markus Thielen noted, leaving them primed for a sharp reversal.

Improving risk appetite across traditional markets has given a favorable backdrop for the crypto bounce. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were 0.6% and 1.1% higher, respectively, in the early hours of trading. The software sector, embattled by AI fears, extended its gains, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) up by another 2% during the session.

Early signs of U.S. buyers returning

For the first time in over 40 days, the Coinbase Premium Index has turned positive again. This index tracks the price difference between bitcoin on Coinbase, a major U.S. exchange, and the broader global market average. It is widely viewed as a gauge of U.S. capital flows, institutional participation, and overall market sentiment.

While the MSTR to IBIT ratio is up 12% year to date, indicating that Strategy has outperformed BlackRock’s ETF. This relative strength points to continued risk-on appetite, even as bitcoin has fallen 25% this year.

In addition, the U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $257.7 million in inflows on Tuesday, the largest daily total since Feb. 6.

UK politicians concerned with foreign interference in politics are calling for temporary restrictions on crypto donations to be put in place until permanent legislation is drafted.

The Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy called for the measures in a letter to the UK’s Communities Secretary, Steve Reed, on Tuesday.

In the letter, Committee Chair Matt Western recommended five temporary measures: 

• A temporary ban on accepting crypto donations until the Electoral Commission publishes its own guidance on interim crypto measures. 
• Crypto donors should be prevented from using crypto firms that aren’t registered with the Financial Conduct Authority to make their donations
• Donations should be converted into sterling within 48 hours of their receipt.
• Crypto that’s been “upstream” from crypto mixers and tumblers, such as Tornado Cash, should be prohibited.
• Crypto should only be accepted when an individual has “high confidence” about its origins.

Kraken says crypto ban will ‘displace’ political donations

The committee took into consideration the views of various stakeholders, crypto entities, charities, and research groups when deciding on its recommendations.  

Despite this, not everybody is happy. Kraken’s Chief Compliance Officer Natasha Powell, for example, warned that a ban would displace crypto donors to shadier avenues of funding, and that donors should be allowed to make donations from UK-regulated institutions.

“If you say, ‘No crypto donations, they’re illegal,’ people will go offshore and find different ways of doing them,” said Powell. “They will keep happening; they will just do so under the radar.”

Solana’s SOL (SOL) has rallied 10% over the past 24 hours, rising to an intraday high of $86 on Wednesday.

The recovery was accompanied by a leap in futures activity, with SOL’s open interest rising by more than 5% to $5.27 billion.

Analysts are now focusing on the short-term technical setup and fundamental indicators that may signal a major turning point for SOL.

Key takeaways:

• SOL price has risen 10% in 24 hours, fueled by bullishness in the broader market and Solana ETF inflows.

• Solana’s symmetrical triangle breakout targets $110 SOL price.

SOL recovers with the crypto market

The SOL/USD pair rose as much as 13.6% to $86 on Wednesday from a two-week low of $75 on Tuesday, amid a marketwide recovery.

Bitcoin (BTC), the market leader, was trading at $66,800 at the time of writing, up 5% over the 24 hours. Second-placed Ether (ETH) has gained about 8% on the day to trade just above $1,990. XRP (XRP) has also posted significant daily gains among the top 10 cryptocurrencies, up 6% over the same period.

As a result, the global crypto market capitalization is up 4% on the day to $2.28 trillion on Wednesday.

Solana’s surge today is accompanied by significant short liquidations totaling $15.4 million over the last 24 hours, signaling intense demand-side pressure.

The buyers were also US-based spot Solana ETFs, which have recorded $40 million in net inflows since Feb. 9.

The growing demand-side pressure that could push SOL prices higher when coupled with increased inflows from global Solana investment products and buying by whales.

SOL’s symmetrical triangle breakout targets $110

Data from TradingView shows SOL price breaking above a symmetrical triangle on the six-hour time frame, as shown in the chart below.

The price needs to close above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $86 to sustain the upward momentum.

The measured target of the prevailing pattern, calculated by adding the height of the triangle to the breakout point, is $110, coinciding with the 50-day SMA. This represents a 28.5% rally from the current levels. 

As Cointelegraph reported, a daily candlestick close above the 20-day EMA, currently at $88, would open the way for a rise toward $95 and later to $117. 

Glassnode’s realized price distribution data for Solana shows limited historical buying activity above $85, suggesting that the bulls could easily break this resistance.

In other words, there are relatively few SOL holders with a cost basis above this zone, reducing the chances of sellers stepping in decisively until the price reaches higher supply zones. 

The next significant resistance sits at $115, where approximately 22 million SOL were previously acquired.