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Michael Saylor’s bitcoin stack is officially underwater, but here’s why he likely won’t reach for the panic button

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Michael Saylor’s bitcoin stack is officially underwater, but here’s why he likely won't reach for the panic button

Bitcoin’s dip to around $75,500 briefly pushed the price just below Strategy’s (MSTR) average purchase cost of roughly $76,037 per coin.

That may sound alarming at first glance, and it technically puts Michael Saylor’s firm underwater on its bitcoin holdings, but it doesn’t fundamentally change the company’s financial position.

There is no balance sheet stress and no forced selling risk. What it does is slow down its future bitcoin buying.

Strategy currently holds 712,647 bitcoin — all of it unencumbered, meaning none of the holdings are pledged as collateral, so there’s no risk of forced selling just because the price falls below its cost of buying.

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Some might question what happens to the $8.3 billion in convertible debt on its books when the bitcoin price falls below the threshold.

The debt load might sound massive, but it also offers plenty of flexibility.

Strategy can extend maturities (roll over its debt), convert debt to shares when they come due. Note that the first convertible note put date isn’t until the fourth quarter of 2027.

There are also other ways to manage the obligations. For example, other bitcoin treasury firms, like Strive (ASST), have recently used tools like perpetual preferred shares to retire its convertible debt. Strategy has similar options if needed.

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Where the pressure shows up is in fundraising.

Historically, Strategy has mostly funded its bitcoin buys by selling new shares through at-the-market (ATM) offerings. What that means is that a company that wants to raise capital by issuing shares instructs brokers to sell them at the current market price rather than selling a large chunk of new stock at a discount. What this does is that shares are sold into the open market, minimizing the impact on the market price.

But that strategy only works well when the stock trades at a premium to its net asset value (mNAV), a metric that compares a company’s market capitalization to the real-time market value of its bitcoin holdings. Last Friday, when bitcoin was around $90,000 to $89,000, the multiple was about 1.15x for the strategy, indicating it was at a premium to its bitcoin holdings. But with bitcoin falling from around $85,000 to the mid-$70,000s this weekend, that premium has now flipped to a discount or below 1, making new equity raises less attractive.

So trading below cost basis is not a crisis.

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It simply slows Strategy’s ability to grow its bitcoin stack without diluting shareholders. For context, back in 2022, when MSTR’s shares traded below the bitcoin holding value for most of the year, the company added only about 10,000 bitcoin.

The company likely won’t go under on this, but the shares will potentially react negatively if the bitcoin price holds at these levels or falls further when markets open on Monday.

Read more: Strategy’s increased dollar buffer covers more than 2 years of dividend obligations

Disclaimer: The analyst who wrote this article has shares in Strategy (MSTR).

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Solana Crypto Stablecoin Liquidity Hits Record Highs as Open Interest Climbs

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Solana just set a new stablecoin liquidity record. Supply surged past $15.58 billion in February.

At the same time, Open Interest climbed from $4.9 billion to nearly $6 billion in a matter of weeks. That is $1 billion in fresh leverage entering the system while sideline capital sits at all-time highs.

Transaction volumes are up 300% year-over-year. This is real settlement activity, not just speculative rotation.

But the leverage building underneath is the real story. Massive dry powder plus rising derivative exposure is exactly how volatility squeezes get built.

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Solana (SOL)
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Stablecoin Liquidity Signals Dry Powder: What the Data Shows

Solana’s stablecoin dominance is the foundation of this entire setup.

USDC transfer volume on the network jumped 300% year-over-year. And the median transaction fee stayed near $0.00047 throughout that volume spike.

Solana now holds roughly 36% of global stablecoin transaction volume. That is not a vanity metric. Stablecoins sitting on-chain represent potential buy pressure that does not need to bridge in from anywhere else.

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Source: Total Solana Stablecoins Market Cap Exceeds 15.347b / DefiLlama

The derivatives side is where it gets dangerous.

Open Interest climbed 22% in a short window, from $4.9 billion to nearly $6 billion. Fresh capital is entering, not just short covering. That validates the trend but also loads the gun for a liquidation cascade.

XRP flipped BNB in open interest right before a major volatility event. High OI is always a double-edged sword.

Watch funding rates closely. If OI pushes above $6 billion while price consolidates, a 5% move in either direction could trigger $500 million in liquidations.

The floor is strong. The ceiling is loaded. Something is going to give.

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Can Solana Crypto Price Push Higher? Key Levels to Watch

SOL is printing higher highs and higher lows. Buyers are defending strength instead of fading it. The structure is constructive.

But $100 to $110 is the wall that matters.

If stablecoins rotate into risk assets and SOL clears $110 with volume, the path to $125 opens up. The stablecoin supply sitting on-chain provides the fuel to sustain that move.

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The danger is the OI acting as a heavy anchor. A rejection at $105 could trigger a long squeeze and flush over-leveraged positions fast. First major support lands at $88. Lose that and the structure weakens significantly.

Watch $105 on the daily. Close above it and the squeeze resolves upward. Lose $92 and the bullish leverage thesis falls apart.

Discover: The best new crypto in the world

The post Solana Crypto Stablecoin Liquidity Hits Record Highs as Open Interest Climbs appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Stablecoin payments firm TransFi raises over $19M to expand services

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Stablecoin payments firm TransFi raises over $19M to expand services

Stablecoin payments infrastructure firm TransFi has raised $19.2 million to expand its operations.

Summary

  • TransFi raised $19.2 million in a Series A round led by Turing Financial Group to expand its stablecoin-based cross-border payments infrastructure.
  • The company plans to deploy the funds across emerging markets while strengthening regulatory licensing and scaling enterprise merchant adoption.

According to a recent announcement, the company raised $14.2 million in Series A equity along with a $5 million committed liquidity facility. The funding round was led by Turing Financial Group.

TransFi will use the capital to fund expansion across South-East Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, LatAm and Africa. It plans to pursue deeper regulatory licensing and scale its enterprise merchant acquisition.

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A portion of the funds would also be used to strengthen AI-first operations and product development across B2B payments, checkout infrastructure and stablecoin orchestration.

“This Series A allows us to scale our infrastructure across high-friction markets and continue proving that stablecoin-enabled payments are not the future, they are already happening,” said Raj Kamal, Co-Founder and CEO of TransFi.

TransFi positions itself as an alternative to traditional correspondent banking and SWIFT-based systems and said it is on track to achieve roughly $5 billion in processed transaction volume by the end of fiscal year 2026. The company currently operates in over 70 countries and supports more than 40 fiat currencies and over 100 cryptocurrencies.

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Stablecoin usage is rising

As previously reported by crypto.news, stablecoin supply has surpassed $315 billion, led by Tether, which continues to dominate the market by share. Other major players, such as Circle, have also expanded their presence across payments and financial applications.

A number of traditional financial firms, including Mastercard and Standard Chartered, have also taken an interest in the growing stablecoin sector.

Meanwhile, several jurisdictions across the globe have started introducing regulatory frameworks and legislation.

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BTC price fails to penetrate $75,000 even after SEC, CFTC crypto guidance

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Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas remains bullish on bitcoin after plunge

U.S. regulators’ first joint guidance on applying securities laws to different types of crypto tokens failed to provide enough impetus to lift bitcoin , the largest, above $75,000.

The interpretive guidance from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which doesn’t carry the weight of a formal rule, classified crypto tokens into five distinct categories: digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, stablecoins and digital securities, and removed a major source of market uncertainty.

The stance marks a shift from the existing case-by-case enforcement, making it clear which tokens are considered securities and which are not, and is expected to give issuers and exchanges much‑needed clarity on how different assets will be regulated under federal law.

“The practical effect is a more coherent and less burdensome regulatory environment. Legal uncertainty declines, the risk of retroactive enforcement is reduced, and compliance becomes more predictable,” Tagus Capital said.

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“This supports institutional participation, exchange development, and product innovation, while improving market structure through lower compliance costs and better price discovery. Although the guidance stops short of binding law and still leaves room for case-by-case interpretation, it sets a strong template for future legislation and may accelerate global regulatory convergence.”

Even so, bitcoin was unable to build on this month’s bounce from $65,000, which at one point on Tuesday, saw the price approach $76,000. The cryptocurrency was largely unchanged over the past 24 hours.

Other major tokens such as XRP (XRP), ether (ETH) and solana (SOL) also saw choppy price action, with the CoinDesk 20 Index down 0.3%.

According to analysts, $75,000 is a key resistance level for bitcoin.

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“On the upside, $75,400–$76,000 continues to act as resistance,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based crypto exchange Giottus said in an email. “Bitcoin needs to hold above this range to signal stronger momentum.”

One possible reason for the restraint could be the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision due later Wednesday. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to hold rates unchanged in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. This leaves traders focused less on the decision and more on the interest‑rate projections in the wake of the Iran war‑related energy price shock.

The rate decision, policy statement, and economic projections will hit the wires at 2 p.m. ET followed by Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference a half hour later.

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BTC/USD Analysis: Bitcoin Price Reaches March High

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BTC/USD Analysis: Bitcoin Price Reaches March High

Yesterday, BTC/USD rose above the $75k level, thereby setting a new high for March. The last time Bitcoin traded at such levels was in early February.

Why is Bitcoin Rising?

Bitcoin’s appeal appears to be increasing due to a combination of factors, including:
→ ongoing military conflict in the Middle East;
→ expectations of rising inflation and upcoming Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.

According to on-chain data, March has seen capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. At the same time, media reports indicate that major corporate players (notably MicroStrategy) have purchased approximately $1.57 billion worth of Bitcoin, creating strong organic demand.

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD

On 5 March, when analysing Bitcoin’s price movements within a broad descending channel, we:
→ noted that the bullish impulse at the beginning of March led to a breakout above the QL resistance line, as well as the psychological $70k level;
→ highlighted that the median line M could act as a barrier to further gains;
→ suggested a potential pullback scenario.

Indeed, since then (as shown by the red trajectory), Bitcoin has undergone a fairly deep correction, reversing lower from the M line. Notably, the QL line subsequently acted as support.

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Trading volume analysis (based on Coinbase data) shows that:
→ on 13 March, bearish activity intensified, resulting in a long upper wick on a high-volume candle;
→ on 15–16 March, the price advanced alongside rising volumes, with candles closing near their highs.

This can be interpreted as strengthening demand: buyers are pushing sellers out of the $70–72k zone, which may serve as support in the near term.

Given the above, a continued upside scenario cannot be ruled out, in which Bitcoin maintains an upward trajectory within the blue channel.

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*Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Rebound Continues as USD/CHF Nears Key Inflection Point

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Rebound Continues as USD/CHF Nears Key Inflection Point

EUR/USD is attempting a recovery wave from the 1.1400 zone. USD/CHF climbed higher above 0.7900 before it started a downside correction.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

· The Euro declined toward 1.1400 before it started a recovery wave against the US Dollar.

· There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1500 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.

· USD/CHF climbed higher above 0.7850 and 0.7900 before it faced hurdles.

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· There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at 0.7870 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair extended the decline below 1.1500. The Euro even declined below 1.1440 before the bulls appeared against the US Dollar.

The pair tested 1.1410 and recently started a recovery wave. There was a move above 1.1450 and 1.1480. The pair climbed above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1667 swing high to the 1.1410 low.

More importantly, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1500. The pair is now trading above 1.1520 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Immediate hurdle on the EUR/USD chart is near the 61.8% Fib retracement at 1.1570.

The first key breakout zone sits at 1.1605. An upside break above 1.1605 might send the pair toward 1.1665. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.1700 zone. If there is a fresh decline, the pair might find bids near 1.1505.

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The next major support is 1.1470. A downside break below 1.1470 could send the pair toward 1.1410. Any more losses might send the pair to 1.1360.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/CHF at FXOpen, the pair started a decent increase from 0.7750. The US Dollar climbed above the 0.7800 handle against the Swiss Franc.

The bulls were able to pump the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.7850. Finally, the pair tested 0.7920. A high was formed near 0.7923 and the pair is now correcting some gains. The pair dipped below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7748 swing low to the 0.7923 high.

Besides, there was a break below a bullish trend line at 0.7870. On the downside, immediate support on the USD/CHF chart is near the 50% Fib retracement at 0.7835. The first key area of interest might be 0.7790.

A downside break below 0.7790 might call for a drop to 0.7750. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a move toward 0.7720.

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On the upside, the pair could struggle near 0.7875. The first major barrier for bulls is 0.7890. If there is a clear break above 0.7890 and the RSI climbs above 50, the pair could start another increase. In the stated case, it could test 0.7925.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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TRUMP rallies over 50% as Mar-a-Lago event drives whale activity

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TRUMP rallies over 50% as Mar-a-Lago event drives whale activity

Whale activity around the Official Trump (TRUMP) token, which is tied to United States President Donald Trump, has hit a five-month high according to on-chain data.

Summary

  • Whale wallets holding over 1 million TRUMP tokens have risen to a five-month high of 83, with combined holdings valued at around $3.7 million, according to Santiment.
  • TRUMP price has climbed more than 50% from recent lows after a Mar-a-Lago luncheon announcement for top holders, though the token remains over 95% below its all time high.

According to Santiment, there are now 83 wallets that hold more than 1 million Official Trump (TRUMP) tokens. Collectively, these holdings amount to roughly $3.7 million worth of the tokens, marking the highest level recorded since Oct. 8 last year.

TRUMP has remained in a steady downtrend since the start of the year, but activity picked up pace after the project’s team announced a luncheon event at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence, where the U.S. president is expected to host top token holders.

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Beyond the main event, those ranked among the top 297 holders are eligible to attend, while the top 29 wallets will qualify for a private reception with the president, subject to background checks.

Several figures across the crypto sector are expected to take part in the gathering, which appears to have driven the recent surge in interest around the token.

Additional data from CoinCarp shows that TRUMP has 642,882 holders, though concentration remains heavily skewed. Over 91% of the supply is held by the top 10 wallets, while roughly 97% sits with the top 100 wallets.

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TRUMP started rallying from multi-month lows near $2.7, climbing more than 50% to reach a peak of $4.35. As of press time, the token is up over 26% in the past 7 days, though it remains down more than 95% from its all time high of $73.43.

For TRUMP holders, this pattern is not new. Last year, a similar gala-style event was announced, which saw the token rally sharply in the lead-up.

However, after the initial momentum faded, the token entered a prolonged downtrend, and unless market conditions change meaningfully, the latest event could follow a similar trajectory.

Regulatory concerns remain

While the upcoming event has generated renewed interest among crypto participants, it is also likely to draw scrutiny in Washington, where lawmakers have continued to question whether such initiatives present conflicts of interest.

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Last year, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff called for Trump’s impeachment over the memecoin dinner, while Senators Elizabeth Warren and Adam Schiff urged ethics officials to review the president’s involvement with the event.

Meanwhile, Representative Sam Liccardo introduced the Modern Emoluments and Malfeasance Enforcement (MEME) Act in February 2025, seeking to bar federal officials and their families from issuing or promoting digital assets.

Similar concerns could resurface this time around, as lawmakers have already raised questions over potential foreign influence and financial interests tied to Trump-linked crypto ventures.

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Shibarium Indexing Hits 45% as Shiba Inu Eyes ETF Inclusion

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Crypto Breaking News

Shibarium’s recovery process shows steady progress as indexing levels improve and system stability returns. Network data accuracy remains limited, yet activity continues to build across the ecosystem. Meanwhile, broader developments around Shiba Inu add new context to the current market positioning.

Shibarium indexing recovery gains traction

Shibariumscan reports that 45% of network blocks are now indexed, showing clear progress from earlier levels. This improvement follows ongoing restoration efforts after infrastructure changes. Consequently, the network continues to rebuild visibility across transactions and wallet activity.

Earlier, the team initiated a migration to a new server environment to boost performance and reliability. This move aimed to address system limitations that affected data tracking and user experience. As a result, indexing resumed gradually while stability improved across the network.

However, incomplete indexing still affects the accuracy of key metrics such as total transactions and wallet counts. Users may see partial data until the process reaches completion. Nevertheless, the steady increase signals continued backend recovery and system alignment.

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Temporary display issues and network adjustments

At the beginning of the month, users reported missing tokens and NFTs within wallet interfaces and the explorer. These display issues created confusion across parts of the Shiba Inu ecosystem. However, developers linked the problem to indexing delays and a temporary bridge update.

Indexing plays a central role in how blockchain explorers present on-chain data. Without full indexing, systems cannot display complete transaction histories or asset balances. Therefore, partial indexing directly impacts how users interact with network data.

Meanwhile, ongoing updates aim to restore full functionality across the explorer and connected services. The community expects improvements as indexing progresses toward completion. Additionally, future upgrades may strengthen data handling and network performance further.

Broader developments shape Shiba Inu outlook

Beyond technical updates, Shiba Inu has entered discussions around inclusion in a proposed exchange-traded fund. T. Rowe Price submitted plans for an actively managed crypto ETF that includes multiple digital assets. This development places Shiba Inu within a broader institutional framework.

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The asset manager oversees significant capital, which adds weight to the filing despite pending regulatory decisions. Inclusion in such a fund could expand exposure to digital assets beyond direct trading platforms. Consequently, it reflects ongoing integration between traditional finance and crypto markets.

At the same time, Shiba Inu price activity remains subdued amid wider market conditions. The token declined slightly over the past day while trading near the lower end of recent ranges. However, macroeconomic factors continue to influence short-term price direction.

The current market focus centers on the Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate expectations. Market data suggests a high probability of unchanged rates within the existing range. As a result, traders position cautiously while awaiting further signals from monetary policy decisions.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bittensor (TAO) Crypto Surges 46% as Covenant-72B Launch Triggers Subnet Explosion

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Bittensor (TAO) crypto just surged 46% in March. Trading near $277.

The network successfully deployed its Covenant-72B model on Subnet 3. That is not a roadmap promise. It is a live heavy-compute model running on-chain.

The market responded immediately. The subnet-native τemplar token pumped nearly 200% in under a week.

TAO is no longer just a governance play. Actual utility demand is driving this move.

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Key Takeaways:

  • TAO posts 46% monthly gain driven by Covenant-72B model deployment.
  • Subnet 3 activity explodes, pushing the τemplar token up 194% in days.
  • Institutional inflow accelerates ahead of potential Grayscale ETF approval.

Covenant-72B: Why This Release Moved the Market

Covenant-72B is a 72 billion parameter large language model. A significant jump from the lighter models Bittensor has run previously. It means the network can now handle enterprise-grade compute loads.

That scale directly impacts validator staking. Running a model this size requires higher quality miner inputs and more TAO staked to secure the bandwidth. Demand for compute on Subnet 3 created direct demand for the collateral backing it. The pricing mechanism worked exactly as designed.

The biggest winner was not TAO itself. It was τemplar, the Subnet 3 native token, which rallied 194% following the deployment. That is the ecosystem feedback loop in action. High-performance subnets attract speculative capital, which deepens liquidity for the miners running there.

Volume backs the move. TAO’s volume-to-market-cap ratio is sitting between 17% and 19%, with over $254 million traded in 24 hours. That is not a thin order book pump. That is real participation.

When subnet tokens outperform the parent chain like this, it typically signals the start of an application layer season for the protocol. That is the next phase traders are positioning for.

TAO Crypto Price Analysis: Can Bulls Breach $300?

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TAO is consolidating at $277.49, just below the $300 psychological level. Structure stays bullish as long as $250 holds.

The 46% impulse already flushed weak hands. OI is building. Traders are positioning for a breakout.

Bittensor (TAO)
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Bull case: daily close above $300 opens $350. Grayscale ETF filing provides the fundamental narrative. Volume needs to stay above $250 million daily to keep the momentum alive.

Bear case: rejection at $300 retests $240. If the broader altcoin recovery stalls, TAO could chop sideways for weeks. Watch $265 closely. Lose that level and the immediate breakout setup is invalidated.

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Bitcoin ETFs on Track to Turn Positive YTD as XRP Rebounds

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Bitcoin ETFs on Track to Turn Positive YTD as XRP Rebounds

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) extended their inflow streak to seven consecutive days, marking the longest run since October 2025.

Spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs added $199.4 million on Monday, bringing their seven-day streak to around $1.2 billion, according to data from SoSoValue. The latest inflows suggest continued institutional interest, though total inflows remain far below the roughly $6 billion seen during the October 2025 run.

Total trading volumes fell to $2.6 billion on Monday, while total assets under management in Bitcoin ETFs climbed to $96.7 billion. Net year-to-date flows remain negative, following $1.8 billion in cumulative monthly outflows and $1.7 billion in cumulative inflows.

The ETF rebound has coincided with broader strength in crypto investment products, which drew about $2.7 billion over three straight weeks, lifting year-to-date inflows to roughly $1.2 billion, according to CoinShares.

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Daily spot Bitcoin ETF inflows from March 9–March 17, 2026, versus Sept. 29–Oct. 9, 2025. Source: SoSoValue

XRP funds post first gains after eight-day losing streak

Spot altcoin ETFs also saw a broad uptick, led by Ether (ETH) with $138.3 million in inflows, the largest since March 4. Solana (SOL) followed the trend with $17.8 million in inflows, also the biggest since March 4.

XRP (XRP) stood out with $4.64 million inflows, the first gains since March 4. The ETFs saw $56.8 million outflows in the period from March 5-16.

Daily XRP ETF flows from March 4–March 17, 2026. Source: SoSoValue

Despite $33.5 million in outflows so far in March, XRP ETFs remain in the green year-to-date, supported by $73.7 million in inflows during January and February.

Solana leads all crypto ETFs year-to-date with $223 million in net inflows.

Related: Bernstein says Bitcoin rebound reflects more resilient long-term holder base

In contrast, Ether ETFs remain underwater, with $364.5 million in year-to-date outflows, following $358.5 million in inflows in March and $723 million in outflows during the first two months of the year.

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Magazine: Spot Bitcoin ETFs first green week, crypto ATM losses surge 33%: Hodler’s Digest, Mar. 8 – 14