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Is Bitcoin’s Bear Market Ending or Just Getting Worse?

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Is Bitcoin’s Bear Market Ending or Just Getting Worse?

Bitcoin surged sharply this week, briefly nearing $70,000 before pulling back. The move sparked debate across the market: has Bitcoin finally bottomed, or is this just another relief rally inside a broader bear phase?

Multiple on-chain, derivatives, and institutional indicators show early signs of stabilization. However, key signals still point to a fragile recovery rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.

Bitcoin Surges Nearly 7%. Source: CoinGecko

Options Market Shows Fragile Conditions, Not Strong Support

Bitcoin’s options positioning recently shifted into what traders call a negative gamma regime, according to Glassnode’s GEX heatmap.

In simple terms, gamma measures how options market makers hedge risk. When Bitcoin sits in a negative gamma zone, dealer hedging tends to amplify price moves. 

That means rallies can accelerate quickly—but so can selloffs.

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Bitcoin GEX Strike Heatmap. Source: Glassnode

The heatmap also shows fewer strong resistance “gamma walls” above current prices. This creates less friction for upward moves, which helps explain Bitcoin’s sudden surge. 

However, it also means the market lacks structural stability. 

Without strong hedging support, price moves remain fragile and prone to reversal.

Bitcoin Spot Demand Is Improving for the First Time in Months

CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin’s apparent demand, which measures net accumulation versus new supply, has turned positive for the first time since November.

This is an important early signal. When demand exceeds supply, it suggests buyers are stepping in and absorbing coins from sellers.

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However, one positive shift does not confirm a full reversal. During past bear markets, temporary demand increases often occurred before further consolidation. 

A sustained trend of rising demand over several weeks would provide stronger confirmation.

Short-Term Holders Are Still Selling at Losses

Another key indicator comes from CryptoQuant’s short-term holder profit and loss data, which tracks whether newer investors are selling at gains or losses.

The data shows short-term holders have been selling at losses consistently since late January. Several major loss spikes occurred in early February and again recently.

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Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Data. Source: CryptoQuant

This pattern is known as capitulation, where weaker investors exit the market. Capitulation is common near market bottoms, because stronger buyers absorb those losses.

However, the signal has not fully reversed. 

Until short-term holders begin selling at profits again, analysts warn that rallies can become “exit liquidity,” where trapped investors sell into strength rather than holding.

Technical and Historical Data Suggest Selling Pressure Is Easing

Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI), a momentum indicator, recently recovered after reaching extremely oversold levels in early February. This suggests selling pressure has weakened.

Historically, such RSI recoveries often lead to short-term rebounds.

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Bitcoin RSI Recovers After Hitting Extreme Oversold Levels on February 5. Source: TradingView

Quarterly performance data also shows Bitcoin rarely experiences multiple consecutive quarters of heavy losses. 

While this pattern does not guarantee a bottom, it supports the view that the market may be entering a stabilization phase.

Institutional Flows Still Show Weakness

Institutional positioning remains a key concern. Earlier data showed Bitcoin ETFs experienced sustained outflows, and SEC filings revealed large investment advisors and hedge funds reduced exposure significantly in late 2025.

This suggests institutional demand has not fully returned. Strong bull markets typically require consistent inflows from large investors.

Early Bottoming Signs, But Bull Market Not Confirmed

Bitcoin is showing several early bottoming signals. Spot demand is improving, capitulation appears to be getting absorbed, and technical indicators suggest selling pressure is fading.

However, key confirmation signals are still missing.

Short-term holders remain in loss territory, institutional flows remain weak, and options market structure shows fragile conditions.

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For now, Bitcoin’s rally appears more consistent with a relief bounce than a confirmed bull reversal. 

A sustained recovery will likely require stronger demand, renewed institutional inflows, and price stability above key resistance levels.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin’s 200-Week Trend Line Is Next on the Horizon for Bulls

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Bitcoin's 200-Week Trend Line Is Next on the Horizon for Bulls

Bitcoin began an assault below the 200-week exponential moving average in fresh signs of upward BTC price momentum at the start of the US session.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit $67,000 at Wednesday’s Wall Street open as bulls shook off fresh US tariff pledges.

Key points:

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  • Bitcoin enjoys a sustained rebound as BTC price action rises above $67,000.

  • A key long-term trend line now comes back into view, with the weekly close in focus.

  • Gold analysis reveals a developing RSI divergence with Bitcoin.

BTC price sets up rematch with 200-week trend

Data from TradingView showed daily BTC price gains hitting 4.5% as a local rebound continued.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin appeared unfazed by an announcement from U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer over 15% tariffs, which may become reality “within the coming days.”

“So right now, as we talked about, 10% is in place. There will be a proclamation raising it to 15% where appropriate,” he told Bloomberg.

Tariff headlines often spark volatility in crypto markets, with their impact nonetheless cooling in recent months.

Already enjoying respite from sustained selling pressure, BTC/USD thus approached a key long-term level in the form of the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA).

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As Cointelegraph reported, BTC price losing the level as support has become a classic bear market signal.

Commenting, trader and analyst Rekt Capital repeated analysis from earlier in February, suggesting that the upcoming weekly close should be above the 200-week EMA, now at $68,330.

BTC/USD one-week chart with 200 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Trader Castillo Trading also eyed weekly time frames, with a potential upside target near $74,500 — Bitcoin’s 2025 yearly lows.

Bitcoin teases RSI bullish divergence versus gold

As gold ranged above the $5,000 per ounce mark, meanwhile, crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe saw reason for Bitcoin bulls to stay optimistic.

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Related: Bitcoin ETF sell-off is ‘purification’ of bull case, investor says

“Interesting enough; There’s a strong bullish divergence on the daily chart of $BTC vs. Gold,” he told X followers on the day, referring to the relative strength index (RSI). 

“It’s not confirmed, but given the recent strength (today and yesterday) in Bitcoin, I think a slight rotation is starting. It’s about time.”

BTC/USD vs. gold one-day chart with RSI, volume data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Such a turnaround in capital flows would upend market opinions from earlier in the year.

As Cointelegraph reported, analysis even concluded that Bitcoin had lost its quest to be “digital gold” with its comedown from October 2025 all-time highs.