Key Takeaways

• The Catalyst: Donald Trump’s State of the Union address reignited risk-on sentiment, directly preceding the $134 billion total crypto market inflow.
• The Flow: Institutional Inflows into ETH ETF products hit $157 million in a single session, marking a decisive reversal from previous outflow trends.
• The Signal: Treasury giant Bitmine added another $106 million in ETH, bringing total holdings to over $9 billion despite share price weakness.

Nearly half of the Bitcoin supply sits underwater, yet accumulation lags, which is keeping the price trapped in a fragile consolidation range for now.

Bitcoin climbed back to $68,000 after several days of decline, as markets reacted positively to Donald Trump’s State of the Union remarks. The crypto asset added fresh 4% gains on Thursday.

But data shows that BTC is still trapped in a structurally defensive consolidation, as the price oscillates between the $60,000 and $69,000, which is being deemed as the main demand zone. In fact, Glassnode experts stated that the market is stabilizing but not yet recovering.

Key Market Conditions

At a 46% drawdown from the all-time high, Bitcoin sits at a depth historically associated with mid-to-late bear market phases, where time itself often becomes a risk factor rather than a catalyst for upside. Nearly 9.2 million BTC are currently held at a loss. This means that half of the circulating supply is underwater, a condition that aligns with prior late-stage bear environments. However, it does not, on its own, point to renewed strength.

Despite the scale of unrealized losses, accumulation behavior remains muted, as evidenced by an Accumulation Trend Score persistently below 0.5 since early February. This indicates a lack of conviction-driven buying, particularly among larger entities whose participation is typically required to form a durable bottom.

Liquidity conditions further validate this fragility. Glassnode found that the 90-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has slipped below the critical 1.0 threshold, which appears to be a transition into an excess loss regime where realized losses dominate profits – a state that can persist for months and is associated with impaired capital rotation and higher downside risk.

Market breadth continues to deteriorate as fewer assets sustain positions above long-term trend baselines. Meanwhile, off-chain data mirrors these on-chain signals. For instance, spot markets have flipped decisively into sell-side dominance since cumulative volume delta across major venues plunged to cycle lows, thereby indicating active distribution rather than passive liquidity gaps.

In derivatives markets, leverage has largely reset, as perpetual funding rates compressed back toward neutral. This not only reflected reduced speculative excess but also highlighted the absence of renewed bullish conviction. A similar defensive posture was echoed by the options markets.

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Additionally, dealer positioning suggested that while sharp moves can be mechanically amplified, the broader structure remains one of consolidation rather than directional resolution. As such, Bitcoin’s current regime is characterized by stabilization amid structural weakness, where neither sellers nor buyers have seized decisive control.

According to Glassnode, a durable upside recovery will require a clear reversal in these conditions – renewed spot absorption to counter active distribution, sustained accumulation from large entities to restore conviction, and a meaningful shift in institutional flows to reestablish a structural bid. Until such signals emerge, range-bound price action between established valuation anchors remains the dominant theme governing Bitcoin’s market structure.

Macro and Geopolitical Risks

In the near term, macro and liquidity factors may continue to dictate price behavior within this structurally defensive range. In a statement to CryptoPotato, Bitunix analysts said,

“If safe-haven flows strengthen the dollar, price could come under pressure and retest the 65–64K liquidity band below. Conversely, if capital rotates toward an anti-inflation narrative, short-term inflows could drive a sweep of overhead short liquidity near 69K. The core variable remains whether geopolitical risks escalate materially.”

Editor’s note: The following briefing outlines a new phishing campaign uncovered by Kaspersky that hijacks legitimate Google Tasks notifications to steal corporate credentials. The attackers impersonate trusted services, leveraging the @google.com domain and intra-company cues to evade standard filters and pressure users into acting quickly. Victims are invited to click a link and complete a fraudulent employee verification form, exposing sensitive credentials that could grant unauthorized access. This advisory highlights the evolving tactics criminals use to exploit familiar tools and the importance of vigilance in enterprise environments.

Key points

• Attackers abuse legitimate Google Tasks notifications to steal corporate credentials.
• The campaign uses the trusted @google.com domain to bypass filters and build trust.
• Users are directed to a fraudulent employee verification form after clicking a link.
• The social engineering hinges on urgency and internal process appearance to lower defenses.

Why this matters

By exploiting familiar services, the campaign exploits trust in everyday tools, increasing the likelihood that employees reveal credentials. This approach bypasses many security filters and highlights the need for awareness and layered defenses in organizations. The incident underscores why training, MFA, and robust verification processes are critical as attackers continue to adapt to legitimate platforms.

What to watch next

• Look for more phishing attempts that imitate enterprise tools via trusted notification channels.
• Watch for fraudulent forms asking for corporate credentials and verify URLs before interacting.
• Ensure MFA and mail-server security measures are in place to protect accounts.
• Report suspicious activity to IT and update security policies as needed.

Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.

Kaspersky discovers new phishing campaign exploiting Google Tasks notifications to steal corporate credentials

February 26, 2026

Kaspersky has uncovered a new phishing scheme that abuses legitimate Google Tasks notifications to trick corporate users into revealing corporate login credentials. By leveraging Google’s trusted @google.com email domain and notification system, attackers bypass traditional email security filters and exploit users’ trust in familiar services.

In this campaign, victims receive an authentic-looking notification from Google Tasks with the subject line “You have a new task.” The message creates the illusion that the recipient’s company has adopted Google’s task management tool, pressuring them to act quickly. The notification often includes elements of urgency, such as a high-priority flag and a tight deadline, to prompt the victim’s immediate response.

Upon clicking the embedded link, users are directed to a fraudulent form disguised as an “employee verification” page, where they are asked to enter their corporate credentials under the pretense of confirming their status. These stolen credentials can then be used for unauthorized access to company systems, data theft, or further attacks.

“Google’s vast ecosystem of services gets exploited by scammers. The scheme with Google Tasks is part of a broader trend observed before and continuing into 2026, where cybercriminals misuse legitimate platforms to distribute scams and phishing. Notifications originating from legitimate domains naturally evade many spam and phishing filters, while the social engineering aspect – making it seem like an internal company process – lowers the victim’s guard,” comments Roman Dedenok, Anti-Spam Expert at Kaspersky.

Read the article about this tactic on Kaspersky’s blog.

To counter this and similar threats, Kaspersky recommends:

• Treat unsolicited invitations from any platform with suspicion, even if they appear to come from trusted sources
• Carefully inspect URLs before clicking
• Do not call any phone numbers indicated in suspicious emails – if you need to call support of a certain service, it is best to find the phone number on the official webpage of this service
• Report suspicious emails to the platform provider and use multi-factor authentication for all accounts
• For corporate users, Kaspersky Security for Mail Server with its multi-layered defense mechanisms powered by machine learning algorithms provides robust protection against a wide range of evolving threats and offers peace of mind to businesses in the face of evolving cyber risks
• For individual users Kaspersky Premium offers AI-powered anti phishing features designed to help avoid phishing attacks and improve overall cybersecurity

About Kaspersky

Kaspersky is a global cybersecurity and digital privacy company founded in 1997. With over a billion devices protected to date from emerging cyberthreats and targeted attacks, Kaspersky’s deep threat intelligence and security expertise is constantly transforming into innovative solutions and services to protect individuals, businesses, critical infrastructure and governments around the globe. The company’s comprehensive security portfolio includes leading digital life protection for personal devices, specialized security products and services for companies, as well as Cyber Immune solutions to fight sophisticated and evolving digital threats. We help millions of individuals and nearly 200,000 corporate clients protect what matters most to them. Learn more at www.kaspersky.com.

Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT on Thursday said a senior employee at onchain trading platform Axiom Exchange allegedly abused internal access to user data to track private wallets and potentially trade memecoins using inside information.

In a thread posted to X, ZachXBT said Broox Bauer, a New York-based senior business development employee at Axiom, used internal dashboards to look up sensitive user information — including linked wallet addresses — and shared that data with a small group that mapped trades of prominent crypto influencers.

Axiom, founded in 2024 by Mist and Cal and a member of Y Combinator’s Winter 2025 cohort, has generated more than $390 million in revenue to date, according to ZachXBT.

ZachXBT said he was retained to investigate allegations that internal tools were being misused. He did not say who retained him.

In audio clips shared in the thread, a person said to be Bauer allegedly claims he can track “any Axiom user” by referral code, wallet address or UID and “find out anything to do with that person.” In the same recording, he describes initially researching 10–20 wallets and gradually increasing activity “so it does not look that suspicious.”

Axiom did not respond to CoinDesk’s request for comment. In a post on X, Axiom said it was “shocked and disappointed” that someone on the team abused internal customer support tools.

“We have removed access to these tools and will continue to investigate and hold the offending parties responsible,” Axiom continued. “This does not represent us as a team, we have always tried to put the user first. We’ll share updates on our twitter as we learn more.”

The investigator alleged Bauer shared screenshots in April and August 2025 showing private wallet data tied to specific traders, including connected addresses and registration details. He also claimed a group compiled wallet addresses for multiple crypto key opinion leaders (KOLs) in a Google Sheet using data sourced from Axiom’s internal dashboard.

Several of the people named in the leaked material independently confirmed the accuracy of wallet information, according to ZachXBT.

The alleged strategy focused on traders known for accumulating large memecoin positions from private wallets before promoting tokens publicly. By identifying previously undisclosed wallets, the group could theoretically monitor accumulation patterns and position ahead of anticipated price moves.

ZachXBT identified what he said was Bauer’s primary wallet and mapped related addresses, noting that funds flowed to several deposit addresses on centralized exchanges. He cautioned, however, that without access to Axiom’s internal logs, it is difficult to establish high-confidence examples of insider trading based solely on onchain data.

The claims surfaced amid heightened scrutiny of trading practices in crypto. Earlier this week, a widely followed Polymarket bet on the identity of the firm in the investigation shifted sharply toward Axiom, with the market generating more than $30 million in volume.

Solana-based liquidity platform Meteora was the leading candidate at about 43% odds earlier in the week, with Axiom, Pump.fun, Jupiter and MEXC trailing at lower probabilities.

As of European morning hours Thursday, those odds shifted and Axiom became the frontrunner at 35%, followed by Meteora at 26% and the ‘others’ category at 15%.

While prediction market odds reflect trader sentiment, they offer no verified insight into the underlying evidence or the outcome of the investigation.

XRP remains in a corrective phase across both USD and BTC pairs. The recent bounce from locally oversold conditions has eased immediate downside pressure, but the broader structure still reflects a dominant downtrend, with rallies so far failing to reclaim major resistance zones or longer-term moving averages.

Ripple Price Analysis: The USDT Pair

On the USDT chart, XRP continues to trade within a descending channel that has governed the price action since late last year. The market recently reacted from the $1.20 support band, producing a short-term rebound toward the mid-channel area around $1.45–$1.50.

This move has not yet challenged the primary resistance cluster between $1.75 and $1.90, where prior breakdown support, the local channel ceiling, and the key 100-day moving average (yellow) converge.

As long as the asset holds above the $1.20 demand region, the structure allows for further relief toward the $1.80 zone; a decisive rejection there would confirm the downtrend, while a loss of the $1.30 short-term low would expose the next major support in the $1.10–$1.20 area.

The BTC Pair

Against Bitcoin, XRP is consolidating near the lower half of its multi-month range around the 2,000 sats after an extended period of underperformance. The pair remains capped by layered resistance between 2,200 and 2,300 sats, reinforced by the downward-sloping 100-day (yellow) and 200-day (orange) moving averages, while a broader supply zone sits higher in the 2,400–2,500 sats region.

Recent stability above 2,000 sats and a modest improvement in momentum indicators point to short-term mean reversion potential, but the relative trend stays bearish as long as XRP/BTC trades below the 2,400–2,500 sats band, where a sustained breakout would be required to signal a more durable shift in market leadership.

Ethereum has staged a notable rebound from the recent capitulation low near the mid-$1,700s, but the broader structure remains corrective after months of persistent downside.

The current advance looks more like a short-term relief rally within an established downtrend than a confirmed trend reversal, so the focus is on whether the price can reclaim key resistance zones and invalidate the series of lower highs that has dominated since late 2025.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, ETH continues to trade inside a well-defined descending channel, with the latest sell-off driving price from above the $3,000 mark down to the $1,700–$1,800 demand region near the lower boundary.

The bounce from this support has pushed RSI out of oversold territory and carried the price back toward the mid-line of the channel, but ETH still sits below the major resistance cluster formed by the $2,300–$2,400 supply zone, while the declining 100-day (yellow) and 200-day (orange) moving averages remain overhead.

As long as the channel remains intact and these resistances cap the market, the dominant trend points lower, and any rallies into that band are best viewed as tests of supply rather than evidence of a completed bottom.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows the rebound in greater detail: ETH has recovered sharply from the $1,800 area and is now pressing into the horizontal resistance level at the recent prominent high around $2,150. Short-term momentum has improved, with the RSI breaking out from a prolonged sub-40 regime and now printing an overbought signal.

Yet, the market is effectively range-bound between the $1,750–$1,800 support floor and the $2,150 ceiling. A clean breakout and consolidation above the latter would open room toward $2,300–$2,400, whereas a failure here followed by a return below $2,000 would suggest that the rebound is losing steam and that a re-test of the recent lows at $1,700 remains likely.

On-Chain Analysis

On-chain data from the exchange reserve metric indicate that the amount of ETH held on centralized exchanges has been trending down for many months and is now near multi-year lows. This structural decline in exchange balances, even as price has weakened, implies that a growing share of supply is being moved off-exchange, whether into self-custody, staking, or other long-term holdings, reducing the immediate pool of coins available for spot selling.

While this does not guarantee an imminent reversal, it is generally more consistent with an environment of underlying accumulation than one of broad distribution, and it suggests that, once the current downtrend exhausts, the reduced exchange supply could amplify the impact of renewed demand on the price.

Starknet has launched strkBTC, a new Bitcoin wrapper that promises to bring enhanced privacy features to decentralized finance (DeFi) without compromising on performance.

strkBTC allows for shielded balances and transfers, enabling private Bitcoin transactions within DeFi ecosystems.

“Typically, there is a performance-privacy payoff. We are breaking that… there are many traditional Bitcoin wrappers, but strkBTC adds something different: privacy, delivered by the most privacy-literate team in the space,” said Eli Ben-Sasson, Co-founder of StarkWare.

Ben-Sasson emphasized that strkBTC maintains composability, allowing users to move Bitcoin through DeFi with private balances and transfers without isolating capital.

The strkBTC protocol focuses on privacy at the protocol level, incorporating selective disclosure for risk management. This approach is not a mixer or third-party wrapper; instead, tokens are issued deterministically in response to verifiable Bitcoin deposits.

Additionally, strkBTC plans to support Bitcoin staking on Starknet, enabling users to earn yield while maintaining shielded balances.

This move aligns with StarkWare’s broader mission of providing scalable and privacy-focused solutions in blockchain.

Starknet is the fifth-largest Ethereum-based layer 2, with about $560 million of total-value locked.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI workflows.

The Most Underrated Primitive in DeFi

DEXs get the glory.
Lending markets get the TVL.
Memecoins get the chaos.

But what is the quiet infrastructure that will determine which protocols survive the next bear cycle?

Insurance.

And not the polite, brochure-friendly version.
I’m referring to native, on-chain risk pricing markets integrated directly into DeFi protocols.

The Hard Truth: DeFi Is Structurally Underinsured

DeFi has:

• Billions in TVL

• Smart contracts controlling systemic liquidity

• Cross-chain bridges holding economic nukes

• Governance tokens directing treasury decisions

What doesn’t it have?

Adequate, scalable risk markets.

Insurance in DeFi today is niche. Optional. Afterthought-level.
But if capital markets teach us anything, it’s this:

Markets don’t mature without mechanisms to price risk.

Right now, DeFi prices yield far better than it prices fail.

That’s backwards.

Why Risk Pricing Markets Matter More Than DEXs

Yes, decentralized exchanges unlocked permissionless liquidity.
Yes, AMMs were revolutionary.

But over the long term, risk markets determine capital efficiency.

In traditional finance, insurance, and derivatives:

In crypto, we built leverage first… and safety second.

That’s like inventing jet engines before seatbelts.

What Is an On-Chain Insurance Market?

An on-chain insurance market is a protocol layer where:

• Smart contract risk is priced dynamically

• Coverage can be bought or sold permissionlessly

• Premiums adjust based on real-time demand and risk signals

• Claims are resolved via transparent mechanisms

Think of it as a prediction market for failure — except with capital backing it.

Risk becomes tradable.

Failure becomes priced.
Security becomes economically measurable.

The Bear Market Stress Test

Bull markets hide structural weakness.

TVL is up. Tokens pump. Hacks feel like isolated incidents.

Bear markets are different.

Liquidity dries up.

Confidence collapses.
Treasuries get tested.
Governance becomes brittle.

And here’s the thesis:

Protocols without native insurance primitives won’t survive the next real bear cycle.

Why?

Because when volatility spikes:

• LPs withdraw if the downside is unprotected

• Institutions avoid uninsured smart contract exposure

• Retail panics faster when risk is opaque

Without insurance, capital becomes fragile.

With insurance, capital becomes sticky.

Native Insurance vs. Third-Party Coverage

Most DeFi insurance today is external.

Protocols like:

offers coverage marketplaces.

That’s a start. But it’s not enough.

The future isn’t external add-ons.

The future is:

• Embedded coverage at the deposit

• Automated coverage ratios

• Insurance pools funded by protocol revenue

• Dynamic risk premiums are visible in UI

Insurance must be default, not optional.

The Capital Efficiency Argument

Insurance unlocks:

1. Lower Cost of Capital

If LPs are insured, they demand lower yield premiums.
Risk compression = deeper liquidity.

2. Institutional Participation

Institutions require hedged exposure.
No insurance = no serious capital.

3. Governance Discipline

If risk is priced, governance decisions become economically accountable.

Risk markets are truth machines.

They expose weakness before hacks do.

Insurance as a Signal Layer

On-chain insurance markets can function as:

• Early warning systems

• Governance credibility scores

• Smart contract risk dashboards

• Protocol health indicators

If premiums spike, something’s wrong.

Markets don’t lie — especially when capital backs the signal.

DEX volume can be gamed.
TVL can be mercenary.
Insurance pricing? Much harder to fake.

The Inevitable Convergence

Over time, we’ll see convergence between:

• Lending markets

• Perpetuals

• Options

• Insurance

All of them are risk-transfer systems.

The line between hedging and insurance will blur.

Smart contracts will self-insure.

Treasuries will auto-allocate to coverage pools.
Risk will be tokenized.

And the protocols that integrate this layer early?

They’ll survive volatility cycles with stronger balance sheets and higher trust.

The Real Competitive Moat

Most protocols compete on:

• APY

• Incentives

• UX

• Tokenomics

The next cycle will reward:

• Resilience

• Risk transparency

• Embedded protection

Yield attracts capital.

Insurance retains it.

Final Thesis

DeFi’s first phase was about access.
The next phase is about durability.

Risk pricing markets are not a side feature.
They are foundational infrastructure.

Protocols without native insurance primitives won’t survive the next bear cycle.

And when the next liquidity crunch hits, the market won’t ask:

“How high was your APY?”

It will ask:

“How well were you insured?”

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Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are shaping how investors size risk, with safe-haven assets drawing attention as equities and crypto markets recalibrate. Fresh indicators show hedging behavior taking hold: oil flows from Iran are rising, while gold demand in key markets is climbing as traders seek ballast against potential disruption and macro volatility. At the same time, crypto markets are responding to a mix of flows that can tilt risk sentiment in either direction, underscoring why the ongoing dialogue around Iran’s nuclear policy and broader policy risk remains central to market discourse.

Key takeaways

• India’s gold ETFs are attracting record inflows, with purchases totaling about 250 billion rupees (roughly $2.7 billion), a new high that surpassed equity mutual fund inflows for the first time.
• Iran’s crude exports surged to about 20.1 million barrels in a recent window (Feb. 15 to Friday), a move analysts describe as both a preemptive supply shift and a hedge against potential disruption amid rising U.S.-Iran tensions.
• Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) continues trading in a defined range, with weak whale accumulation and persistent ETF outflows dampening conviction in the near term.
• U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs posted notable daily inflows, signaling renewed investor interest as BTC tests the $68,000 level, though the broader outflow backdrop remains a factor.
• Gold holds near $5,172 per ounce after a weekly gain of about 4.4%, reflecting robust defensive demand amid macro uncertainty.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Neutral — BTC remains in a defined range as macro signals yield mixed safe-haven and inflation hedging pressures.

Market context: The market narrative sits at the intersection of geopolitics, currency flows, and risk-on versus risk-off dynamics, with gold and Bitcoin acting as competing hedges in a volatile environment.

Why it matters

The current environment underscores how geopolitical frictions can recalibrate investor behavior across traditional and crypto assets. As oil markets reflect potential disruption, demand for physical gold and related instruments strengthens, particularly in large consumer economies where import patterns and sentiment drive flows. In this context, India’s gold ETFs—representing a major portion of the world’s gold consumption—are capturing outsized attention. The surge in inflows signals a structural tilt toward gold as a core component of portfolios, especially in a region where the metal plays a tangible role in wealth protection and risk diversification.

On the crypto side, Bitcoin’s latest price action illustrates a delicate balance between safety-seeking capital and the lure of potential upside as inflation fears wax and wane. The most recent on-chain data from Glassnode shows that the market’s short-term behavior remains cautious: BTC is oscillating within a broad band, and there is a notable absence of robust whale accumulation even as exchange-traded exposure remains a prominent factor in liquidity dynamics. A sizable portion of Bitcoin sits at a loss, suggesting that a portion of holders are still realizing losses rather than cycling profits, which can dampen near-term upside momentum but does not preclude longer-term volatility from re-emerging should macro conditions shift.

Beyond price charts, ETF activity remains a critical barometer. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs posted strong daily inflows in one session, lifting the sector after weeks of outflows and helping prices test recent resistance. While inflows can reflect renewed interest, they also mirror ongoing shifts in the broader compliance and retail adoption landscape, where regulated access remains a key driver for investor diversification. This dynamic is complemented by a growing conversation about how macro environments—whether driven by dollar strength, inflation expectations, or geopolitical risk—affect the appeal of digital assets as hedges or risk-on instruments.

Meanwhile, the gold complex continues to reflect a convex response to uncertain macro signals. The metal has traded near $5,172 per ounce, rising by roughly 219 dollars across the prior week, a move that corroborates the “risk-off” tilt some investors favor when equity markets appear stretched or geopolitical headlines intensify. The Indian market, in particular, is illuminating a broader theme: a shift from equity allocations toward defensive assets—gold and its financial proxies—as part of a broader effort to shield capital against volatility.

In a broader sense, the narrative around demand for safe-haven assets—both physical gold and regulated gold exposure in the form of ETFs—highlights a common thread: investors are seeking reserves that are less exposed to fiat dollar shocks and geopolitical flashpoints. The question for market participants is whether these hedges will crowd into digital assets as macro conditions evolve or whether traditional shields will maintain their primacy in the near term.

For context, a separate analysis has highlighted that questions about the sustainability of a megaregional shift—such as whether China will shift its foreign-exchange reserves toward gold or other hedges—continue to influence investor expectations. As markets parse these signals, the balance between risk-off assets like gold and risk-on or hedged exposure in crypto remains a focal point for traders and portfolio managers alike.

What the data say about sentiment and positioning

On-chain metrics illustrate a cautious stance among Bitcoin holders. The latest weekly perspective notes that Bitcoin has traded in a broad $60,000 to $70,000 corridor, with subdued accumulation by large holders and ongoing ETF-related outflows. In parallel, the broader market narrative remains sensitive to liquidity shifts and policy cues, making near-term price directions highly contingent on incoming macro data and geopolitical developments.

In the same vein, the Islamic-markets and Indian retail segments appear to be carving out distinct hedging behaviors, contrasting with U.S. and European flows that continue to be shaped by ETF structures and regulatory considerations. These dynamics contribute to a mosaic where gold and Bitcoin can diverge on path while still reflecting a common underpinning: a search for reliable hedges amid heightened uncertainty.

What to watch next

• Updates on Iran–U.S. policy rhetoric and potential escalations, given the sensitivity around nuclear talks and regional security, could recalibrate risk appetite for both gold and crypto markets.
• Continued momentum in India’s gold ETF inflows and any emergent shifts in other major gold markets, alongside price movements in gold and related products.
• Bitcoin price action near critical levels—whether the $64,000–$65,000 zone or the $69,000 threshold proves decisive in signaling a breakout or renewed consolidation.
• US ETF flow data for Bitcoin and other crypto products in the coming weeks, which could confirm whether recent inflows signal a durable regime shift or a temporary rebound.

Sources & verification

• Iranian crude export data and shipment volumes from Kharg Island reported in Middle East Eye coverage covering Feb 15 to the following Friday.
• India gold ETF inflows and the broader gold demand narrative as summarized by The Kobeissi Letter, with data showing 250 billion rupees in inflows and a shift away from equities.
• Glassnode weekly on-chain data detailing Bitcoin’s price range, whale activity, and the loss position of a large portion of supply, including the 90-day realized profit-to-loss metric.
• US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, including a session with about $506.5 million in daily inflows and commentary on weekly inflow patterns after a period of outflows.
• Gold price history and current trading levels cited in GoldPrice and related references, showing price movement in the recent week.

Key figures and next steps

The market narrative remains tethered to how geopolitics will influence the balance of risk assets. Gold’s outperformance in response to uncertainty underscores the appeal of traditional hedges, while BTC’s constrained range reveals the tension between caution and speculative opportunity. As policymakers and market participants absorb new data—from oil shipments and sanctions risk to ETF flows and on-chain signals—the path forward for crypto and gold will likely reflect a composite outcome rather than a single directional move.

What it means for traders and investors

For traders, the current environment emphasizes the importance of liquidity and risk controls, particularly as macro drivers can flip sentiment quickly. For investors, the experience reinforces a diversified approach that weighs both physical and financial hedges against a backdrop of evolving macro risk. For builders in the crypto space, the message is clear: regulated access and clear, transparent risk disclosures remain vital to sustaining interest as traditional hedges compete with digital assets in a shifting risk landscape.

What to watch next

• Iran–U.S. policy updates and potential escalation indicators.
• Sustained inflows into India’s gold ETFs and any corresponding price dynamics in gold markets.
• Bitcoin price activity around critical levels and any breakout signals beyond the current range.
• Regulated ETF flow trends for Bitcoin in the United States and other major markets.

Why it matters (final)

The intersection of geopolitics, macro risk, and investor hedging remains a central theme for 2026. While gold continues to be the primary safe-haven instrument in many geographies, digital assets are increasingly intertwined with mainstream investment infrastructure, aided by regulated access and institutional interest. The evolving narrative around safe havens, currency dynamics, and reserve diversification will likely shape how portfolios balance exposure to traditional assets and newer forms of collateral, even as headline risks continue to drive volatility and appetite for hedges across asset classes.