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Analysts Rebuke Jane Street 10am Dump; Bitcoin Not Easily Manipulated

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In online crypto circles, a persistent debate has emerged around whether a quantitative trading firm could nudge Bitcoin’s price at the moment U.S. markets open. Proponents point to a recognizable 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time pattern as potential evidence of coordinated selling, while critics caution that such a signal is not definitive proof of manipulation and may reflect broader market mechanics. The discussion intensified a day after a court-appointed administrator overseeing Terraform Labs’ affairs filed a suit against Jane Street, alleging insider trading tied to Terra’s May 2022 collapse. The intersection of high-speed trading, ETF liquidity, and opaque hedging strategies has kept traders watching the clock as BTC moves through daily cycles.

Key takeaways

  • Allegations focus on a recurring 10:00 a.m. ET window at the market open, but analysts say this does not constitute conclusive manipulation or a sole driver of BTC’s price trajectory.
  • Public filings show Jane Street’s exposure to BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, alongside stakes in Bitcoin mining firms, suggesting hedging and liquidity strategies rather than a simple directional bet.
  • Industry voices argue that a single institution cannot control a global, liquid market as fragmented as Bitcoin, even if some trading strategies amplify volatility around open hours.
  • Delta-neutral approaches—holding spot exposure while selling futures—are cited as a common method for capturing spreads rather than betting on direction, according to market observers.
  • The discourse features a mix of on-chain data, trading analytics, and public posts from market observers, underscoring the complexity of disclosures and how net exposure can be obscured.
  • Contextual factors such as geopolitical risk and competition for investor attention from AI-related equities are cited as broader drivers of BTC price moves beyond any single firm’s activity.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $IBIT

Sentiment: Neutral

Market context: The dialogue unfolds amid a broader crypto environment characterized by liquidity fluctuations, evolving ETF dynamics, and ongoing regulatory and macro influences shaping how traders price risk and opportunities.

Why it matters

The debate touches on the core questions facing crypto markets: how liquidity, disclosure, and algorithmic trading intersect with real-world price discovery. If a large player can influence the clock at which liquidity sweeps occur or how efficiently a spot market absorbs ETF-related flows, that could have implications for price integrity and market education. Yet the consensus among many analysts is that Bitcoin’s price formation remains a product of multiple forces, including macro risk appetite, capital allocation shifts, and competitive attention toward AI-driven tech and growth narratives.

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At stake is trust in market transparency. For traders, the issue highlights the importance of understanding how publicly reported positions, hedges, and complex derivatives can mask net exposure. For regulators and exchanges, it underscores the need for clear, timely disclosures that help market participants distinguish legitimate liquidity activity from attempts to edge the price. For investors, the episode reinforces a prudent approach: interpret open-hour moves in the context of the broader market regime rather than attributing them to a single actor.

The discourse also intersects with ongoing legal and regulatory developments. The Terraform administrator’s lawsuit against Jane Street and the ongoing scrutiny of ETF structures like IBIT keep the conversation anchored in concrete questions about governance, disclosure requirements, and the boundaries of high-frequency market making in a frontier asset class. While proponents of a conspiracy narrative may highlight specific posts or data points, skeptics point to a broader pattern: markets are influenced by a constellation of participants with diverse strategies, and attribution to one firm oversimplifies the dynamics at play.

What to watch next

  • Updates in the Terraform-related litigation against Jane Street, including any new filings or court rulings that may illuminate insider-trading claims.
  • New or amended 13-F filings from Jane Street that shed light on hedging strategies, including positions in IBIT and mining-related equities, and any disclosed derivatives that could affect net Bitcoin exposure.
  • On-chain and market data around the 10:00–10:30 a.m. ET window to assess whether any statistically significant patterns persist in the near term.
  • Regulatory or industry guidance on disclosure practices for large ETF components and liquidity providers that could affect how market participants interpret “hidden” exposure.
  • Monitoring broader market signals—geopolitical developments, liquidity conditions, and AI-sector performance—that could influence Bitcoin independently of any singular trading desk.

Sources & verification

  • Court-appointed administrator filing related to Terra/Labs and Jane Street, alleging insider trading tied to the May 2022 collapse.
  • Jane Street’s 13-F filings showing holdings in BlackRock’s IBIT ETF and stakes in Bitcoin mining companies such as Bitfarms, Cipher Mining, and Hut 8.
  • Public posts and commentary from market observers, including Bechler’s discussions on 10:00 a.m. ET moves and the contention that IBIT-related hedging could conceal net exposure.
  • CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno’s analysis on whether the described activity is unique to a single firm or part of delta-neutral trading patterns commonly used to capture spreads.
  • Industry analysts’ assessments of whether a single actor can meaningfully drive BTC price given the structure and depth of the market, including critiques of the “10 a.m. dump” narrative by researchers such as Alex Krüger.

Market reaction and key details

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has long been a magnet for debate over who moves the market and when. In recent weeks, observers have spotlighted a recurring pattern that some traders interpret as a 10:00 a.m. ET “dump” coinciding with the U.S. market open. Proponents of the theory argue that a firm with deep liquidity, such as Jane Street, could deploy algorithmic sales to reap benefits from ETF inflows and to acquire spot Bitcoin at a discount on the open. A prominent critic of the narrative, however, notes that a single actor is unlikely to set the tone for a market as diffuse as Bitcoin’s, where liquidity is drawn from a wide array of exchanges and participants across multiple jurisdictions.

One thread of the debate centers on Jane Street’s disclosed exposure to the IBIT ETF, alongside positions in mining-related equities. Bechler, a crypto influencer, suggested that if Jane Street carries roughly $790 million in IBIT, the actual net Bitcoin exposure could be largely hedged away, masked by options and futures combinations rather than a straightforward long or short bet. This line of reasoning emphasizes that public filings reveal only a fragment of a much larger, more complex risk posture, where hedges might offset or even invert visible positions.

Yet others push back on the idea that the activity is unique to Jane Street. CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno cautioned that many funds employ delta-neutral strategies—buying spot exposure while selling futures—to capture spreads without committing to a directional bet. In practice, these maneuvers can appear as divergent price actions around the open while serving to maintain neutral exposure in volatile markets. Moreno’s observations underscore a broader point: the mechanics of hedging frequently blend with price movement in ways that are not easily ascribed to a single firm’s choice of timing or size.

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In the eyes of some researchers, even a credible pattern around the open does not translate into a bear-market engine powered by one institution. Nick Puckrin of Coin Bureau argued that Bitcoin’s price dynamics are inherently multifactorial, and a solitary actor—even one as large as Jane Street—cannot unilaterally dictate longer-term moves. He framed the conversation as part of a more nuanced reality: price action is shaped by geopolitical risk, global liquidity conditions, and the ongoing competition for attention among high-growth tech sectors, including AI.

As the market digests these viewpoints, the intersection of legality, disclosure, and market structure remains a live area of inquiry. The Terra-related lawsuit and the ongoing discourse about ETF flows highlight the need for transparency in how large players interact with both spot markets and derivative instruments. The broader takeaway is not a verdict on manipulation, but a reminder that the Bitcoin market’s depth and fragmentation make it resistant to easy explanations or simple villains.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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ZachXBT Accuses Axiom Staff of Insider Trading Using Wallet Data

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Fees generated by Axiom. Source: Token Terminal

Recordings and screenshots reviewed by the blockchain investigator show internal tools that surfaced users’ private wallets and trade histories.

Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT has accused employees at crypto trading platform Axiom of abusing internal tools to spy on users and trade using private wallet data, according to a detailed investigation posted on X today.

The alleged activity dates back to early 2025 and involves a senior business development employee based in New York.

According to ZachXBT, the employee, Broox Bauer, is heard on recordings claiming he could track “any Axiom user via ref code, wallet, or UID” and could “find out anything to do with that person.” In one clip cited by ZachXBT, Bauer also describes gradually increasing the number of wallets he monitored “so it does not look that suspicious.”

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Fees generated by Axiom. Source: Token Terminal
Fees generated by Axiom. Source: Token Terminal

Axiom was founded by Henry Zhang — also known as Mist — and Preston Ellis — also known as Cal — in 2024 and later went through Y Combinator before quickly becoming one of the most profitable crypto platforms. The web-based trading terminal pulled in tens of millions of dollars in fees just months after launching in late January 2025, The Defiant reported earlier.

‘No Monitoring or Access Controls’

Screenshots shared in the X thread also show internal dashboards listing users’ private wallets, linked accounts, and transaction history, data that sources contacted by ZachXBT said appeared accurate.

The group also allegedly maintained shared spreadsheets mapping wallets tied to well-known traders and memecoin promoters. In another recording, Bauer lays out a plan to help a colleague make $200,000 by abusing this access, saying he would send over “the full list of wallets.”

“Regardless of whether Cal or Mist were aware, there was little to no monitoring or access controls in place to mitigate this abuse from happening in the first place,” ZachXBT wrote.

Because Bauer is based in New York, he added that the case could fall under the Southern District of New York, even if no criminal charges are ultimately filed.

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It’s unclear, however, how much profit, if any, was made using the alleged insider information.

‘Shocked and Disappointed’

As the details came out, Axiom said in an X post, “We are shocked and disappointed to hear that someone on our team abused internal customer support tools to look up user wallets.” The company added that it “removed access to these tools and will continue to investigate and hold the offending parties responsible.”

Days before ZachXBT publicly named the firm, an alleged Axiom affiliate using the alias devininsider was already pushing back on speculation around Axiom. “We are simply a terminal that allows people to trade open market memecoins, what could we be possibly insider trading lol,” they said.

Blockchain tracker Lookonchain noted in an X post that just hours before ZachXBT named Axiom as the company accused of insider trading, two new anonymous wallets bet $59,800 on Axiom on Polymarket, and within three hours, turned it into $109,000.

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AI rout hits software stocks, but Grayscale says blockchains stand to benefit

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Why machine-to-machine payments are the new electricity for the digital age

Blockchains and artificial intelligence are complementary technologies, according to crypto asset manager Grayscale, even as markets have recently treated them as part of the same trade.

Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, said that while disruptive technologies tend to produce clear winners and losers, the relationship between AI and blockchain is more symbiotic than competitive. Rapid AI adoption is expected to reward some industries, such as chipmakers, while pressuring others, including segments of professional services.

“Although crypto valuations have been tightly correlated with the drawdown in software stocks, we think blockchains and AI are complementary from a fundamental standpoint,” he said in the Wednesday blog post.

U.S. equity markets have lately focused on the downside. The S&P 500 software index has fallen roughly 20% year to date, and crypto valuations have moved closely with the selloff. But Pandl maintains that the parallel drawdown obscures a more constructive long-term dynamic between the two technologies.

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Investor anxiety about artificial intelligence’s disruptive potential has sparked a broad sell-off in tech and software stocks, erasing significant market value as traders reassess long-held valuations.

U.S. software and services shares have plunged sharply, wiping out roughly $1 trillion in market capitalization, as fears mount that fast-advancing AI tools could upend traditional business models and revenue streams.

The S&P 500 software index has slumped as investors rotate out of high-flight tech names amid heightened volatility and skepticism over how quickly and profitably AI adoption will play out.

Pandl contends that blockchains are likely to become the financial rails for AI agents. Today’s chatbots operate largely outside the financial system. But if AI agents are equipped with digital wallets, he expects them to transact over blockchains rather than traditional bank infrastructure.

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Blockchains offer transparency, near-instant settlement, 24/7 availability and global reach with an internet connection, he said. While opening a bank account requires a human intermediary, any user, including a bot, can create a blockchain address. Pandl said rising volumes of low-value stablecoin transactions would be an early signal that this thesis is playing out.

At the same time, he argued that blockchain technology could help mitigate some of AI’s risks. As large language models proliferate, concerns around data provenance, deepfakes and the concentration of control over resources and decision-making are likely to intensify. Public blockchains, Pandl said, can provide verifiable records and more decentralized infrastructure to counterbalance those trends.

The report acknowledged AI may also introduce new challenges for crypto networks. Advanced tools could make blockchain surveillance more effective, potentially eroding user privacy. AI agents may also uncover new vulnerabilities in smart contracts; OpenAI recently launched EVMbench, an initiative aimed at using AI to identify and patch such risks.

Read more: Crypto isn’t losing to AI, its just ‘capitalism doing its job,’ says Dragonfly

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Bitcoin Hovers Near $67K as Crypto Markets Consolidate

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BTC 24-hour price chart. Source: CoinGecko

Leading altcoins retraced some of their gains from Wednesday.

Crypto markets dipped slightly on Thursday, with the total market cap dropping by about 2% over the past day to around $2.39 trillion.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $67,000, down 2% over the past day but up 1% for the week, slightly below Wednesday’s peak.

BTC 24-hour price chart. Source: CoinGecko
BTC 24-hour price chart. Source: CoinGecko

Ethereum (ETH) slipped to $1,992, posting a 3% daily loss. Among other Top 10 assets, Solana (SOL) dropped 3.5%, XRP plunged 5%, and BNB fell 1.5%.

‘Constructive Return of Liquidity’

Analysts at glassnode noted in an X post today that “profit-taking continues to absorb momentum at the $70K threshold,” implying that this is consistent with a thin liquidity regime where even modest realization events are sufficient to suppress recovery attempts.

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BTC realized profit/loss ratio. Source: glassnode
BTC realized profit/loss ratio. Source: glassnode

“Historically, breaks below 1 have persisted for 6+ months before reclaiming it, a recovery that typically signals a constructive return of liquidity to the market,” they added.

Paul Howard, senior director at crypto trading firm Wincent, said in commentary for The Defiant that stronger-than-expected earnings overnight had lifted tech stocks and risk assets more broadly.

He noted that “the short squeeze on Circle was notable, alongside the significant short interest in MSTR and the earnings beat from NVDA,” adding that these moves contributed to Bitcoin’s rally over the past 24 hours.

Howard added that the market is still looking for a clear catalyst that could push cryptocurrencies significantly higher, rather than just supporting them as a hedge trade.

Big Movers and Liquidations

Among the Top 100 assets by market cap, Pippin (PIPPIN) led gains with an 18.4% jump, followed by Internet Computer (ICP), which is up 8.5%.

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On the downside, Cosmos Hub (ATOM) fell 7.9%, and Morpho (MORPHO) declined 3.6%.

CoinGlass reports that more than 157,000 traders were liquidated over the past 24 hours for a total of $560 million.

Shorts dominated with around $420 million liquidated, compared with nearly $148 million in long positions.

ETFs and Macro Conditions

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $506 million on Wednesday, Feb. 25, the largest single-day inflow since Jan. 5, bringing total net assets to $87.6 billion. On that same day, spot Ethereum ETFs added $157 million, bringing cumulative net assets to $11.8 billion.

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On the macro front, U.S. Treasury yields were mostly flat. The 10-year note slipped slightly to 4.042%, the 30-year bond yield edged down to 4.687%, and the 2-year note ticked higher to 3.473%.

Thursday’s Labor Department report showed initial unemployment claims for the week ended Feb. 21 at 212,000, slightly above the prior week’s revised 208,000 but below the 215,000 forecast, CNBC reported.

On the geopolitical side, Iran’s foreign ministry said today’s nuclear talks in Geneva produced “very constructive” proposals, but didn’t give any details, according to the Associated Press. The U.S. and Iran are negotiating indirectly, with Oman’s foreign minister and the UN’s nuclear watchdog also present.

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AI, Bitcoin Mining Firms Tap High-Yield Bonds for Data Centers

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AI, Bitcoin Mining Firms Tap High-Yield Bonds for Data Centers

The AI and data center boom partly driven by Bitcoin miners is increasingly being financed through high-yield bond issuance, underscoring how lenders are pricing both risk and opportunity in the sector.

According to TheEnergyMag’s latest newsletter, companies tied to AI data center development have raised about $33 billion in long-term senior notes over the past 12 months, excluding convertible debt — bonds that can later be converted into equity and typically carry different risk dynamics.

The interest rate spread is notable: While regulated utilities and traditional energy companies generally borrow at 4% to 5%, AI- and crypto-linked issuers pay closer to 7% to 9%.

The average coupon on newly issued US dollar high-yield debt has was close to 7.2% in late 2025, from 8% to 9% in 2023, according to Janus Henderson Investors, citing BofA Global Research, average coupon, as of Nov. 30.

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Those at the higher end of the spectrum are largely current or former digital asset mining companies that have pivoted into AI infrastructure, suggesting capital remains comparatively expensive for the group. 

TheEnergyMag cited recent raises, including CoreWeave at 9.25% and 9% in May and July 2025, Applied Digital at 9.2% in November, TeraWulf at 7.75% and Cipher Mining at 7.125% and 6.125%.

Credit ratings and perceived risks drive interest rate spreads in AI infrastructure development. Source: TheEnergyMag

“The message from lenders is clear,” TheEnergyMag wrote. “Regulated load and contracted generation still get treated as infrastructure. AI and bitcoin, even when attached to long-term offtake agreements, are still treated as growth credit.”

Related: Canaan buys 49% stake in three Texas mining sites for $40M

AI infrastructure boom intensifies 

Despite concerns about overspending and potential overcapacity, the AI data center build-out remains one of the most visible trends in the economy, and a major driver of demand on Wall Street.

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The scale of that momentum was underscored on Wednesday when chipmaker Nvidia posted blockbuster fourth-quarter results, with profit rising 94% and revenue climbing 73% year-on- year. The chipmaker reported $43 billion in net income and $68.1 billion in revenue.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining companies are planning about 30 gigawatts of new power capacity aimed at AI workloads, nearly triple the capacity they currently operate. Much of it remains in development pipelines or early-stage planning, but the industry has made clear that AI infrastructure is a strategic priority.

Related: The real ‘supercycle’ isn’t crypto, it’s AI infrastructure: Analyst

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