Good morning. Donald Trump has a significant lead in the still-incomplete results of the US presidential election, and global financial markets are pricing in his return to the White House. Below, I bring you the latest from across the Atlantic and how Brussels and EU capitals are preparing for a result.

Plus, our Berlin correspondent reports on the elected official from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) who has been arrested in a German police swoop on a far-right terror cell.

Trump 2.0 looms

European capitals are waking up to the realisation that Donald Trump is more likely than not to return as US president, after the Republican candidate was predicted to have won the important states of North Carolina and Georgia overnight and built early leads in the counts of almost all other key swing states.

Context: Trump is a Nato-sceptic who has vowed to force Ukraine to sue for peace and impose blanket tariffs of up to 20 per cent on European imports.

At 7.00am CET, North Carolina and Georgia had been called for Trump by media outlets. He held small leads in the crucial swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as counting continued. Global currency markets suggested traders were anticipating his victory over vice-president Kamala Harris. His Republican party also won back control of the Senate.

You can find all our US election coverage here.

EU officials who traded hours of sleep for a first look at these preliminary first results stressed that a Brussels response would wait until the final outcome was clear. The result will dominate a two-day meeting of EU and European leaders in Budapest that begins tomorrow.

“We are not in 2016 where [Trump] was a big surprise . . . We are more confident, we have a clear line on what is our agenda and what to expect [from either candidate],” said a senior EU official involved in discussions among capitals about the result. “We are not panicking.”

EU officials said that regardless of the eventual winner, Brussels would seek to stress both the importance of the transatlantic relationship and a desire to expand it, while making clear the European agenda to be less dependent on the US, defend multilateralism and defend open trade. Overarching all this would be a commitment to ongoing support to Kyiv.

“We should be careful, and keep calm,” the official said. “The lines we are working on will work for both candidates . . . it will be the same: support to Ukraine.”

“I expect leaders to continue on this path,” they added. “Whether there will be 27 [leaders] to continue expressing this position is another question.”

Chart du jour: CO2 car crash

The European car industry is in the middle of a mass pile-up including sluggish demand, faltering electric vehicle sales, fierce competition from China and enduring overcapacity. Having to pay billions of euros in fines for carbon dioxide emissions would only increase the pain, writes Lex.

Plotting in the dark

Another day, another scandal at Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany.

Hours after prosecutors announced that they had arrested eight young men on suspicion of forming a Nazi-inspired group with plans for racist violence, German media revealed that one of them was an elected official with the AfD, writes Laura Pitel.

Among those detained during a vast police operation yesterday was Kurt Hättasch, an AfD member of the local council in Grimma, a town in the eastern state of Saxony.

Context: The case is not the first example of bizarre but alarming alleged plots by right-wing extremists in Germany. In late 2022, two dozen people — including former and active members of the police and armed forces — were arrested for allegedly planning a coup d’état.

Federal prosecutors yesterday said the arrested men had “racist, antisemitic and partially apocalyptic ideas” that were driven by Nazi ideology and the belief that Germany was nearing collapse. They are accused of planning to seize parts of the country’s east and carry out ethnic cleansing against “unwanted” groups.

Thomas Haldenwang, head of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, said the arrests demonstrated “the persistently high danger” posed by rightwing extremism to the country’s security.

Still, members of Olaf Scholz’s teetering coalition can hold little hope that the latest arrests will dent support for the AfD. The party, which performed strongly in this year’s European elections as well as in a trio of votes in east German states in September, has largely shrugged off other revelations including investigations into links to Russia and China.

A spokesman for the AfD’s division in Saxony, which itself has been classified by German intelligence as an extremist organisation, said it supported democracy and that Hättasch would be expelled if the allegations against him were confirmed.

What to watch today

1. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala meets Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić in Belgrade.

2. European parliament hearing for EU defence commissioner-nominee Andrius Kubilius.

Now read these

• Boomers vs Gen Z: A proposed cut to French pension benefits has sparked a fierce debate on intergenerational inequity.

• Chocolate rebellion: Nestlé, Ferrero and more than 50 other companies have said the delay to the EU’s landmark deforestation law puts investments at risk.

• Dangerously vulnerable: Europe’s critical infrastructure is at risk and governments must learn lessons from Ukraine, writes Anders Fogh Rasmussen.

This is an audio transcript of the FT News Briefing podcast episode: ‘How election day unfolded in the US’

Sonja Hutson
Good morning from the Financial Times. Today is Wednesday, November 6th, and this is your FT News Briefing.

Americans closed out a hard-fought election yesterday. And I’ll take you through the numbers of what has been the most expensive presidential contest in US history. Plus, Germany is racing against the clock to pass a new budget. 

Guy Chazan
The problem is that the government has submitted a draft budget to the German parliament, but there is an enormous hole in it. 

Sonja Hutson
I’m Sonja Hutson, and here’s the news you need to start your day.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Voters across the US yesterday raced to cast their ballots in what has been billed as the most consequential election in decades. 

Jen Eldridge
A lot of different emotions, a lot of different opinions to the point where I can’t talk about it with my friends or family or co-workers. 

Sonja Hutson
And it has been a political rollercoaster, to say the least. 

Xander Dunn
It’s just such a divisive time. And to be honest, I’m looking forward to everything just being over. 

Sonja Hutson
People in battleground states have faced the most pressure from this election. My colleague Steff Chávez was out talking to voters in Wisconsin yesterday, and she joins me now to tell me what she saw and heard. Hi, Steff. 

Steff Chávez
Hi, Sonja. 

Sonja Hutson
So how were people feeling about the election in Wisconsin? 

Steff Chávez
I think there were all sorts of emotions and it ranged from, you know, real hope and confidence in, you know, people’s specific candidates, but also genuine anxiety and fear. 

And so how has the vibe been this election? 

Jen Eldridge
Really intense. 

Steff Chávez
So I went to one polling place in downtown Milwaukee, which is a Democratic stronghold. I met Jen Eldridge, a 44-year-old woman who was casting her ballot for Kamala Harris, and she identified herself as an independent voter. 

Jen Eldridge
So I’m one of those voters that you want on your side because I can go either way. I vote for the candidate that closely represents my values. 

Steff Chávez
She said the most important thing to her in making her choice was reproductive freedom. 

Jen Eldridge
Women’s issues and women’s rights. My reproductive rights are very important to me. 

Steff Chávez
Which is really getting at a major theme of this election. It is one of the Democrats’ strongest issue, and Harris is counting on women in particular to turn out to vote and maybe even flip their votes to try and get some of their reproductive rights back. 

Sonja Hutson
So, you know, you mentioned that Milwaukee is a Democratic stronghold. Where else did you go in the area to talk to voters who maybe leaned a little bit more Republican? 

Steff Chávez
So I went out to Waukesha county, which is one of the Milwaukee suburbs. While I was there, I met Jeff Powell, a life-long Republican, who had such a hard time deciding who to vote for, that he made a game-time decision in the voting booth. 

Jeff Powell
I kept mulling it back and forth, but I finally voted. 

Steff Chávez
He said that he really didn’t like either candidate. 

Jeff Powell
For a nation that’s as prosperous and educated as our nation is, we got two delinquents that are running for president. 

Steff Chávez
He wouldn’t tell me who he voted for, but he said that the most important factor in his decision was immigration, but also things like the growing budget deficit and education. 

Jeff Powell
This election is probably the most divisive election. I’ve been voting since I was 21. 

Steff Chávez
I also met a couple, Drew and Mike, who had their eight-day-old baby with them at the polling place.

They both voted for Trump. They said the most important reasons were the economy and immigration. 

Drew and Mike
Just putting our country first. We got a lot of issues outside of our country that are important, and we need security here first. 

Steff Chávez
The economy and immigration are two of the Republicans’ strongest issues. Despite the fact that Trump has struggled on the abortion topic, Republicans are hoping that can propel him to victory. 

Sonja Hutson
Now, Steff, one big concern leading up to this day has been acts of political violence. You know, I’m in downtown DC and there are tons of buildings that have been boarded up over the past couple of days. Have we seen reports of violence or intimidation at polling locations around the country? 

Steff Chávez
Yes, there have been. Multiple polling stations in the swing state of Georgia had to close temporarily yesterday while police investigated bomb threats. And the FBI warned of similar threats from Russian email domains to voting sites across the US. And as you said, Washington, DC has also been on high alert. Police arrested a man at the US Capitol who they said was in possession of a torch and a flare gun. 

Sonja Hutson
And, you know, this also makes me wonder how confident people feel in this election process in general. Did you get a sense of that in talking to people in Wisconsin? 

Steff Chávez
Nobody that I talked to really voiced concerns about the safety of their own ballot. However, the concept of election integrity has definitely been a really important issue throughout the country. Randy Marquardt, who is the Republican chair of the Washington County Republicans here in Wisconsin, told me recently that he has had to spend a lot of time reassuring Republican voters in his county that the election system is safe. And also both Democrats and Republicans pushed early-vote campaigns really hard, particularly in Wisconsin. And so a lot of people from both parties voted early here. 

Sonja Hutson
Steff Chávez is the FT’s Washington reporter. Thanks Steff. 

Steff Chávez
Thanks, Sonja. 

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Sonja Hutson
A record amount of money was spent in this year’s presidential election. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have burnt through more than $3.5bn combined in the race. That’s according to the FT’s analysis of campaign filings. So, where did all this money go? Well, almost half was spent on ads in seven swing states. The campaigns have flooded Pennsylvania the most. They put over $400mn to work there. To put that into perspective, that is more than all of the non-swing states combined. Filings also show Trump’s campaign groups spent $100mn on the former president’s recent and ongoing court cases. That’s 14 per cent of his total spending. And Harris outspent Trump on media and ad buys by roughly 25 per cent.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is in the middle of a rock and a hard place. He needs to pass a budget by next week. But an argument between his coalition partners over how to do that has threatened to bring down the entire government. My colleague, Guy Chazan, has been following all the drama and he joins me now. Hey, Guy. 

Guy Chazan
Hi. 

Sonja Hutson
All right. So tell me where the budget discussions stand at the moment and what the major sticking points are. 

Guy Chazan
Well, the problem is that the government has submitted a draft budget to the Bundestag, to the German parliament, but there is an enormous hole in it, because what happened recently is that the government downgraded its economic forecasts for this year and also for next. And that meant that it now expects less tax revenue than it did before when it actually came up with this draft budget. So there’s a big financing gap which no one knows how to plug. Basically, we have three parties in this government — Social Democrats, Greens and liberals. All three have different remedies for how to close this gap, and they’re kind of mutually incompatible. But that’s not the only problem. 

Sonja Hutson
Yeah. Tell me a little bit more about the political landscape here. 

Guy Chazan
Well, what’s happened is that these three parties, they were always sort of uncomfortable, awkward bedfellows. And what we’ve seen in the last couple of days is the rather unedifying spectacle of all three parties presenting their own proposals for how to get Germany out of this current mess. And it’s creating a lot of chaos and a lot of angst in the German political system, but also in German business. And people are just like shaking their heads in disbelief that there can be so much disunity within this government. 

Sonja Hutson
Well, what’s at risk then, if the coalition parties can’t come together ahead of the budget deadline next week? 

Guy Chazan
Well, I think what will happen is that the coalition will break down if there’s no breakthrough on the budget. Scholz, the chancellor, has been saying, look, we’ve all got to put our heads together and come up with a solution here. We owe it to the country. The economy minister said something very similar. He said, you know, this is really the worst possible time to break up the coalition, with all the insecurity, all the instability in the world right now. But the smaller partner in the coalition, the liberals — it’s a party called the Free Democrats, the FDP — they are really at the end of their tether. And there’s a very, very strong likelihood that the FDP could just abandon the coalition, and then that could trigger the dissolution of the Bundestag, the parliament, and new elections. 

Sonja Hutson
OK. Wow. So there’s definitely a lot of uncertainty right now in Germany, which makes me wonder, what is the wider impact of this instability on the European Union more broadly? 

Guy Chazan
Well, I mean, it has enormous impact because, you know, people have always looked to Germany for leadership in Europe. You know, it’s the biggest economy in the Eurozone. It’s the kind of industrial behemoth of Europe. And what’s happened now is that that anchor of stability has gone. Germany is just now wracked by political instability. And there’s real fear that the country that is so indispensable could be without a government within weeks. 

Sonja Hutson
Guy Chazan is the FT’s Berlin bureau chief. Thanks, Guy. 

Guy Chazan
Thank you. 

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Sonja Hutson
You can read more on all these stories for free when you click the links in our show notes. This has been your daily FT News Briefing. Check back tomorrow for the latest business news. 

THE chairman of Wetherspoons has issued a warning regarding impending price increases following Rachel Reeves’ Autumn Budget.

Tim Martin revealed that the pub chain’s tax bill is projected to rise by two-thirds next year.

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Martin said: “Cost inflation, which had surged to high levels in 2022, gradually diminished over the subsequent two years.

“However, it has now significantly increased again following the budget.

“All hospitality businesses, we believe, plan to increase prices, as a result.

“Wetherspoon will, as always, make every attempt to stay as competitive as possible.”

Wetherspoons anticipates that tax and business costs will increase by approximately £60 million over the next fiscal year, including an estimated 67% rise in national insurance contributions.

Last week, Rachel Reeves said she was raising the headline employer rate of National Insurance (NI) from 13.8% to 15%.

She also announced a reduction to the threshold at which businesses start paying NI contributions from £9,100 to £5,000.

The group, which runs nearly 800 pubs across the UK, said its sales grew by about 6% in the 14 weeks to November 3, compared with the same period last year.

One of the government’s most important visions of Amrit Kaal 2047 is to develop world class next generation ports, and the government of India through various documents such as the Maritime India vision that was launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has realised that maritime is a long term assignment aimed at the larger vision of making India a developed nation by 2047. A road map has been put out for all the participants of the maritime sector—government and private— including different areas such as shipping, inland waterways etc. These were some of the observations by Sunil Paliwal, Chairperson, Chennai Port Trust during a panel discussion on Navigating Future Directions: Growth, Connectivity, Sustainability and the Roadmap at the THE WEEK Maritime Conclave 2024 in Chennai. 

Paliwal pointed out that both the Chennai port and the Kamarajar port align with this and have a long term road map. “We have to see what we will do in the next 25 years in terms of infrastructure, connectivity and digitisation. At the same time we are aware of the implications of climate change. These things are not static—as to when Kamarajar port started its operations in June 2001 it was a cold port and now it is a multi cargo port. Kamarajar port is situated outside the city and it is a new port and only 25 years old. We are now handling our cargo handling capacities and we should be able to reach around 178 million tonnes per annum by 2047 from the current 58 million tonnes,” remarked Paliwal. 

He informed that at Chennai port they are aiming to handle the biggest vessels of the world. They would also focus on increasing port connectivity to the Chennai port. He said that they were already in the heart of the city and in association with the NHAI they are putting up an elevated corridor and the work is already on and even if cargo cannot be brought easily inside the port then there is a multi modal logistics park that is being developed at Mappedu. They also have a train shed at Jollarpettai where cargo can be assembled and re-assembled. On the other hand, Kamarajar port is also looking at connectivity. “We are also working on soft solutions and in Chennai port we are also rolling out Enterprise Business Solution (EBS). Kamarajar port has also developed its own port handling solution,” added Paliwal. 

During the panel discussion, Malini Shankar, Vice Chancellor, Indian Maritime University empahsised that it is high time that all the stakeholders of the Maritime sector jumped into the pool of research. “The Cochin Ship Yard for instance is leading in R&D and are now building ships for international clients. The Maritime University is a very nascent and is only 13-14 years old.  We urge the industry to partner in research. We had this convention to understand the needs and issues of the industry (shipping, waterways and logistics) and what needs to be done. We got ideas from it,” remarked Shankar. 

She also informed that recently a patent was filed by the IMU Kolkata campus jointly done with private corporation. “We are now building the capacity to do research. Ship building requires trained manpower as it is not available. An ITI can be identified and could be upskilled for ship building. At the same time we also need to have clusters for ports and ship building ship yards as there is non availability of parts, spare parts and smaller things that can be made locally. We have had for instance a discussion with the government of Tamil Nadu for a cluster in Coimbatore. Our university has also started an incubation centre as well,” said Shankar. 

Paliwal, meanwhile, added that maritime sector had shown excellent coordination between academia and the industry. “For instance earlier when we use to put in a berth or a terminal in a port we in case we required simulation studies we had to go to countries such as the Netherlands but now we can use the the same thing at IIT Madras,” said Paliwal. 

Another panelist Jayant Singh, Project Director (Infrastructure) NITI Aayog felt that whatever the maritime sector provides is a service which has to be cheap and efficient. He said that the problem with a country like India is that over last few decades it had not looked at its infrastructure very seriously and a lot of catching up needed to be done. “The quantum of FDI in the port sector has come up and but there is a lot of scope for improvement. One thing we need to address is the multi modality seamless integration and connectivity between the shipping and the hinterland. There is also a logistics challenge which needs to be addressed is the empty return ratio –one way loaded one way empty. At the same time there should be better synergy between the central and the state government in the maritime sector. There is however immense opportunity as the maritime sector is the fastest growing part in GDP the world over,” pointed out Singh.

With the cost-of-living crisis still hitting families hard, many people are picking up side hustles to make a bit of extra cash for Christmas.

Single mum Kate Propert, who lives in Bristol with her daughter, is one savvy saver who has done just that – and now she’s earning hundreds of pounds from her sofa.

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The 39-year-old, who works as a surgical care practitioner, has raked in £1,200 in the past year by selling old clothes on eBay.

She told The Sun: “This is the perfect way to help save for Christmas. I put some of my earnings from the marketplace into savings across the year, and this means I build up a pot to help fund the festive period.”

Having a little more money on top of her monthly salary helps take a bit of pressure off her squeezed family budget.

“My energy bills went up again from the start of October, and my weekly food shop has gone up too,” said Kate.

“That’s why selling on eBay is so great – as it means I can make some extra cash. As a single parent, every little helps.”

The entrepreneurial mum is a long time eBay lover. For almost a decade, she has been boosting her bank balance by selling stuff, but on a smaller scale.

She told The Sun: “I began my eBay journey back in 2015. My earliest sales were items from my wedding, including my dress, veil, shoes – as well as some bridesmaid dresses.”

In the beginning, Kate’s motivation was the desire to declutter and free up more space at home, but now she’s earning around £100 extra a month selling old bits and bobs.

“All the items I list are things from around the house that we longer use or need,” she said.

“Over the years, I’ve listed a huge variety of bits and pieces including home-ware, garden tools and children’s stuff.

“Recent sales include an unused professional make-up kit for £135, a Zeta Citi stroller pushchair for £80, an IKEA desk for £35, a Golf Wang ‘save the bees’ hoody for £35, and a riding helmet for £25,” she added.

“I’ve also just sold a Frozen puzzle and a wooden spelling game. The run-up to Christmas is a great time for selling kids clothes and toys.”

The resourceful mum is always willing to have a go at finding a buyer for things she no longer uses.

“I’ve even listed dog bowls, mudguards and artificial plants,” she said. “I’ve found new homes for all these things – and they’ve all helped me make some extra cash.

“You really can sell anything on eBay. One really unexpected profit was getting £5 for a bulk of old hair pins.”

The busy mum is able to do her listings from her sofa and they take just minutes each.

“I often put the time in when I’m sitting in front of the TV in the evening,” she said.

Recent changes by eBay

eBay recently announced (October 1), that it is now free for people to sell across all categories on the platform (with the exclusion of motor listings, including the sale of cars, motorcycles and vehicles.)

Prior to this, private sellers have had to pay a fee of more than 13%. Read more with ‘Massive change to eBay selling fees could save you serious cash – how does it compare to Depop and Vinted?’

“This has been a game-changer for me,” said Kate.

“I’ve already sold so much on the platform, but this makes me even more keen to do so. I’m really excited to see how the new features will help improve my sales – and boost my selling journey.”

The savvy mum has been sorting through every room in the house to see what else she can list and sell including a custom-made opal ring made, which cost Kate around £200.

“I’m planning to list this in the next few weeks – and will look to price it at around £180,” she said.

“This would free up a nice extra bit of cash for Christmas – plus the ring will make a fantastic gift for someone else. November is a great time to list items you know will make for great presents.”

Kate says eBay’s change to ‘free listings’ for sellers might see more individuals give eBay a try.

“This change could encourage others to do what I do – and sell unused items they have in their homes.”

Kate’s top tips for selling on eBay

Kate has urged sellers to take care to list your item accurately using relevant keywords. This will increase the chances of buyers finding your items.

Be sure to communicate clearly and responsively with the buyers throughout the process, she added.

“Try selecting the ‘Use AI description’ option for a helping hand when writing descriptions for your listings,” she explained.

“The tool automatically creates attention-grabbing captions which can make it easier for buyers to make a decision. 

“Remember that there are protections in place when using eBay, such as the Money Back Guarantee. With this program, if a buyer has any issue with their purchase, eBay will support them to get a refund.”