Donald Trump’s election victory on Wednesday sparked a palpable sense of dismay among the climate community, with two key architects of the landmark Paris Agreement warning that the result will make it harder to slash planet-heating greenhouse gas emissions.

Trump will defeat his Democratic rival Kamala Harris and return to the White House for a second four-year term, according to an NBC News projection.

It marks a historic and somewhat improbable comeback for one of the most polarizing figures in modern American politics.

The 78-year-old, who has called the climate crisis “one of the great scams,” has pledged to ramp-up fossil fuel production, pare back outgoing President Joe Biden’s emissions-limiting regulations and pull the country out of the Paris climate accord — again.

The 2015 Paris Agreement is a critically important framework designed to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. It aims to “limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels” over the long term.

Laurence Tubiana, a key architect of the Paris Agreement, said Trump’s election victory “is a setback for global climate action, but the Paris Agreement has proven resilient and is stronger than any single country’s policies.”

Tubiana, a French economist and diplomat who now serves as CEO of the European Climate Foundation, said the context today is “very different” to Trump’s first election victory in 2016.

“There is powerful economic momentum behind the global transition, which the US has led and gained from, but now risks forfeiting. The devastating toll of recent hurricanes was a grim reminder that all Americans are affected by worsening climate change,” Tubiana said.

“Responding to the demands of their citizens, cities and states across the US are taking bold action,” she added.

“Europe now has the responsibility and opportunity to step up and lead. By pushing forward with a fair and balanced transition, in close partnership with others, it can show that ambitious climate action protects people, strengthens economies, and builds resilience.”

Solar stocks sold off overnight as investors see Donald Trump leading in the U.S. presidential election.

Solar stocks are falling on fears that a possible Trump victory would spell trouble for the Inflation Reduction Act, which has fueled a clean energy boom in the U.S. through tax credits to expand solar energy.

The benchmark Invesco Solar ETF was down 7% in overnight trading on brokerage Robinhood. The solar panel manufacturer First Solar tumbled 8% overnight. Residential solar stocks Sunrun and Sunnova fell 6% and 2.6%, respectively. Inverter manufacturer Enphase tumbled 5% and Nextracker was down nearly 5%.

Trump’s campaign platform calls for the termination of the IRA, which he refers to as the “Socialist Green New Deal.” The IRA is one of President Joe Biden’s signature achievements. The law passed on party-line vote in 2022 without any Republican support.

Trump is leading in the electoral college and is projected to win the key swing state of North Carolina, according to NBC News. The future of the IRA, however, will depend not only on whether Trump wins the White House, but whether Republicans also secure control of Congress.

Kamala Harris’ campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon told staff in an email Tuesday that the clearest path to victory for the vice president lies in the so-called Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

LAS VEGAS — In Nevada’s 4th Congressional District, a crypto PAC spent nearly $2 million on ads this cycle to support the reelection of Steven Horsford, a Democratic congressman who’s voted in favor of some major pro-crypto bills.

But watching the ads, you’d learn nothing about that agenda.

“He’s leading on jobs, bringing good paying union jobs to Nevada and rebuilding our infrastructure,” one 30-second commercial says. “He capped insulin prices at $35 a month,” and “worked multiple jobs to support his hard working single mother and siblings in Congress.”

The ad wraps up with the disclosure, “Fairshake is responsible for the content of this ad.”

Fairshake was the largest crypto-aligned super PAC in the 2024 election cycle, spending piles of cash to support crypto allies and vote out antagonists across the country. The group brought in $170 million, accounting for a huge chunk of the amount raised by crypto-related PACs and other groups, which totaled more than $245 million, according to Federal Election Commission data.

Crypto has accounted for nearly half of all corporate money flowing into the election, according to a report from nonprofit watchdog Public Citizen. No other sector is close. That includes oil companies and banks, which have historically been big political contributors. Crypto even outpaced Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, who spent tens of millions of dollars to try and get Republican nominee Donald Trump back in the White House in his contest against Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.

A big part of the crypto industry’s strategy when it came to distributing cash was to identify key races and then flood the zone.

Industry advocacy group Stand With Crypto Alliance, launched by Coinbase last year, developed a grading system for the presidential race and for House and Senate candidates across the country, helping it determine where to spend.

Horsford received an A grade based on his public comments and his voting history while in office. His campaign received money from Fairshake as well as individual donations from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen, venture capitalist and longtime crypto investor Reid Hoffman and billionaire twins Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss.

Nevada is home to two of the thirteen “critical elections” singled out by Stand with Crypto, a designation the group defines as races that are “critical to the future of crypto in America.” In addition to Horsford’s election, the other Nevada race is the Senate contest between Democratic incumbent Jackie Rosen and Republican challenger Sam Brown. Both candidates received an A grade.

According to data shared by Stand with Crypto, 385,000 Nevadans are crypto owners, and more than 16,000 people in the state have signed up to be advocates for the group, which made a stop in Las Vegas in September as part of a multi-state tour.

The other races deemed critical were for Senate in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Massachusetts, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maryland, and for specific House contests in Colorado, Iowa and Oregon.

To reach potential voters, Fairshake isn’t talking a lot about crypto. Nor are its affiliate PACs, which have names like Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress. They’ve collectively spent more than $135 million this cycle, mostly on ads.

“Not mentioning crypto assets explicitly is probably a savvy move to avoid alienating voters who prefer traditional currencies and might be put off by connections to crypto,” said David Nickerson, an associate professor of political science at Temple University who worked in the analytics department for President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign in 2012.

The biggest single target of crypto money this cycle was Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic chair of the Senate Banking Committee. Brown backed Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., in holding hearings on whether digital tokens were tied to terrorism.

In December, Brown told journalists that he wasn’t concerned about the crypto industry’s rumblings against him.

“Bring em’ on,” Politico quoted Brown as saying to a crowd of reporters.

Some $40 million of crypto money has been directed at defeating Brown, and one PAC has paid for five ads designed to boost awareness of Republican rival Bernie Moreno, a blockchain entrepreneur. The race is crucial in determining which party will control the Senate.

Protect Progress, a PAC affiliated with Fairshake, has given more than $10 million apiece to Senate candidates in Arizona and Michigan. In Arizona, the group favors Democrat Ruben Gallego, who is vying for the seat being vacated by Kyrsten Sinema. In Michigan, the preferred choice is Elissa Slotkin, who is currently a Democratic House member.

Democratic Rep. Katie Porter lost in the primary for the California Senate after Fairshake spent over $10 million in ads against her. Defend American Jobs spent more than $3 million to support Republican Jim Justice in West Virginia, who has been declared the winner in West Virginia, replacing exiting Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin.

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WASHINGTON — In the first few years after founding Coinbase, CEO Brian Armstrong shied away from Washington, D.C. But as his ambitions for his crypto exchange scaled, so too did his need to curry favor on Capitol Hill.

“About five or six years ago, we realized that crypto was getting big enough that we needed to go really engage actively in a policy effort, so I started coming out to D.C.,” Armstrong, who started Coinbase in 2012, told CNBC in September, following a day of meetings with political leaders.

Now, it’s practically Armstrong’s full-time job, and Coinbase’s money is all over the nation’s capital. The company was one of the top corporate donors this election cycle, giving more than $75 million to a group called Fairshake and its affiliate PACs, including a fresh pledge of $25 million to support the pro-crypto super PAC in the 2026 midterms. Armstrong personally contributed over $1.3 million to a mix of candidates up and down the ballot.

The tech industry’s biggest names have dotted Washington for years to try and push their agendas as their market caps have expanded, but for Coinbase, the matter is potentially existential.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler sued the firm last year over claims that it sells unregistered securities. A judge has since ruled that the case should be heard by a jury. Coinbase has fought back vociferously, and has also said that it wants to work with regulators to come up with a proper set of laws governing the nascent industry.

Meanwhile, Coinbase faces a growing list of competitors.

In the company’s latest quarterly earnings report last week, Coinbase missed on the top and bottom lines due to lower transaction revenues and a drop in subscription and services revenues. The shares plummeted 15%.

Data from CCData shows the exchange is losing spot market share to industry rivals like Crypto.com. And investors have many new options for accessing bitcoin and ethereum since the SEC greenlit spot funds this year. BlackRock’s ETF chief Samara Cohen told CNBC that 75% of its bitcoin buyers are crypto investors who are new to Wall Street.

Washington can’t save Coinbase from the competition, but the company is betting that, with favorable lawmakers in place, it can be the leader in a thriving industry rather than under the constant threat of lawsuits and Wells notices.

Armstrong said his D.C. visits normally took place once or twice a year. Then it got to be at least a quarterly occasion. And the pace has only increased.

“In the beginning, a lot of people didn’t know what crypto was,” Armstrong said of his earlier trips. Now, “the discussion has advanced, really, to, how do we pass clear rules, create legislation in the United States?”

Paul Grewal, Coinbase’s chief legal officer, attended a fundraiser in San Francisco in June that raised $12 million for former President Donald Trump. It was hosted by venture capitalist David Sacks, a former Trump critic who became an outspoken supporter when he became the Republican nominee.

Grewal later joined a fundraiser in Nashville in July for the former president.

Trump has never shown much of an aptitude for the nuances of crypto, but he’s welcomed the industry’s financial support. He was applauded in the summer, when he vowed to fire Gensler as head of the SEC if he wins.

Grewal told CNBC that he’s had “many conversations” behind closed doors with both the Trump camp as well as Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign. Heading into Election Day on Tuesday, the candidates were in a virtual dead-heat.

“What I think we’re hearing from both campaigns is they get it,” Grewal said. “They understand that in swing state after swing state, there are enough voters who care about crypto that the candidate and their campaigns need to give voice to the concerns of those voters in supporting sensible rules for crypto, sensible legislation coming out of Congress, and that’s very encouraging.”

Grewal said that Trump “came earlier to this pro-crypto view,” but said that Harris recognizes the need for “an agenda focused on promoting sensible rules for crypto as much as any other technology.”

But Coinbase’s political interests as an organization have been focused exclusively on Congressional races, as the company looks to help assemble a group of lawmakers with favorable views of the industry.

The Stand With Crypto Alliance, launched by Coinbase last year, has developed a grading system for House and Senate candidates across the country.

In the Ohio Senate race, for example, the organization gives Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown, who chairs the banking committee, an “F” grade, versus an “A” grade for his Republican rival Bernie Moreno, a blockchain entrepreneur. Some $40 million of crypto money has been directed at defeating Brown, and one PAC has paid for five ads designed to boost awareness of Moreno. The race is very close and is crucial in determining which party will control the Senate.

Stand with Crypto, which has enrolled 1.4 million advocates across the country, is also working to mobilize digital asset owners living in swing states. This effort involved a cross-country bus tour through battlegrounds focused on getting these residents registered to vote.

“It’s really extraordinary, given how razor-thin the margin of victory was in the 2020 election, to see crypto not only be an issue, but potentially a determinative issue in terms of the presidential cycle,” Faryar Shirzad, Coinbase’s chief policy officer, said in an interview.

Shirzad said that last year, he and his team concluded that the only way to get politics out of crypto was “to build our own political operation.” He said the goal is to “neutralization the politicization of the crypto issue and talk about it on the merits.”

Coinbase is far from alone. Nearly half of all corporate money raised this election comes from crypto firms.

Fairshake, one of the top spending PACs this cycle, told CNBC it’s raised around $170 million this election and disbursed approximately $135 million.

Ripple Labs is another one of Fairshake’s top political donors.

The company, which has spent more than $100 million battling Gensler, has given around $50 million to Fairshake. Several executives have also contributed to a mix of Democratic and Republican candidates in races across the country.

Ripple’s head of U.S. public policy, Lauren Belive, told CNBC at a fintech conference in Las Vegas that the company was motivated by the SEC’s overreach.

“We really wanted to put people into office that could learn about this technology and understand this technology, because we need Congress to act and to create federal statutes and not have this enforcement regime,” said Belive. She added the regulator has issued over 100 enforcement actions against crypto-aligned companies.

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