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U.S. regulator’s GENIUS pitch puts dark cloud over crypto sector’s stablecoin model

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U.S. regulator's GENIUS pitch puts dark cloud over crypto sector's stablecoin model

The crypto industry’s stablecoin operations, such as the arrangement between issuer Circle and leading exchange Coinbase, could be under serious pressure in the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s newly proposed set of stablecoin rules.

Even as OCC chief Jonathan Gould testified in the U.S. Senate on issues that included crypto oversight on Thursday, people in the industry said they’ve been trying to understand his agency’s 376-page proposal to regulate domestic issuers under the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act that became law last year. The allowance of stablecoin yield and reward has not only been central to the GENIUS Act, but it’s also been a chief negotiation point in the more important follow-up legislation known as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.

Close financial ties between issuers and crypto platforms that handle their tokens “would make it highly likely that the issuer’s payments of yield or interest would be made to the holder through an intermediary or an attempt the evade the GENIUS Act’s prohibition on interest and yield payments,” the OCC proposal suggested.

The firms can rebut that presumption, the OCC said, “given the issuer provides sufficient evidence to the contrary.”

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On the controversial point of rewards, the industry has worked under an assumption that the GENIUS Act’s ban on yield or rewards offered by stablecoin issuers doesn’t extend to third parties that can offer their own rewards programs on those issuers’ tokens, such as at Coinbase. But the OCC’s proposed language assumes that the law’s prohibition would be improperly evaded under certain third-party relationships, though the details are still being studied by crypto lobbyists and lawyers.

Industry insiders who requested anonymity acknowledged this opening effort looks bad, and they’ll line up to try to get it changed, but some suggest the agency’s wording may leave enough room that continued rewards could be manageable.

Todd Phillips, a former lawyer at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and business professor in Georgia who tracks digital assets policy, agreed the proposed language doesn’t seem like a hard no.

“I think there’s some play in the joints of what the OCC has proposed,” Phillips told CoinDesk on Thursday. He said the opening language seems uncertain on whether it means to “shut down all permutations of stablecoin rewards.”

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“The OCC has clearly gone beyond what the statute requires,” Phillips said, adding that the extent of the restriction “is open to debate.”

The agency didn’t immediately respond to questions from CoinDesk.

The crypto industry’s primary policy aim in Washington is to advance the Clarity Act’s regulations for the overall U.S. digital asset markets. In that legislative negotiation, this issue of stablecoin yield has become one of the leading points of contention, with U.S. bankers arguing that such yield threatens their foundational dependence on customer deposits. During those talks, the crypto side has repeatedly argued that the GENIUS Act, as it stands, allows third party crypto firms to offer rewards on stablecoin holdings and activities.

One of the insiders in the negotiation told CoinDesk on Thursday that the OCC’s action should undermine the banks’ lobbying, because what’s the point of hashing out stablecoin yield in further legislation when the banking regulator has already taken it up as a proposed rule? Despite that, they also said the OCC overreached, and the industry will likely fight the proposed rulemaking even as the Clarity Act continues its way through Congress.

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Meanwhile, the proposals advanced by Gould — a former chief legal officer at Bitfury who has otherwise been strongly supportive of the crypto industry — casts some doubt on industry confidence that GENIUS will protect stablecoin rewards programs, which represents a significant business at Coinbase. The U.S. crypto exchange hasn’t yet made any public statements, and a company spokesperson declined to comment.

The proposed rulemaking from the OCC, which charters and oversees national banks and trusts in the U.S., is preliminary, opening the ideas to a public comment period that would later have to be followed up with a final rulemaking process. With controversial rules, this process usually requires months of discussion and review.

If the OCC does cut off the ability of crypto platforms to extend stablecoin yield to customers, it may eliminate one of the Clarity Act sticking points, though other matters are also still standing in the way of the bill. Democratic lawmakers have insisted — for instance — that the legislation address potential conflicts of interest posed by senior government officials, such as President Donald Trump, personally profiting from the crypto industry.

At a Thursday hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, stablecoin rewards came up often as a business that scares the banking industry. Regulators suggested they haven’t yet seen a flight of deposits from banks.

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“We have to take these concerns, the concerns of community banks, especially seriously,” said Senator Angela Alsobrooks, a Democrat who sought to negotiate a compromise in the Clarity Act to ban the crypto industry from rewards on stablecoin holdings in a way that resembles a deposit account. So far, negotiations among the political parties, the banks, the crypto industry and the White House haven’t yet advanced to a compromise that can get to a vote in the Senate.

Read More: OCC pitches stablecoin rules as U.S. Senate holds banking hearing in which crypto stars

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Crypto World

Ethereum Data Backs the ETH Price Recovery

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Ethereum Data Backs the ETH Price Recovery

Ether (ETH) price is up 18% since plunging below the $1,800 mark on Feb. 6, reclaiming the $2,000 support level. Surging price volatility and a low MVRV Z-score value are also signaling a local bottom forming.

Key takeaways:

  • Ether realized volatility on Binance has risen to its highest level since March 2025, hinting at a potential recovery.

  • Ether’s MVRV Z-Score has dropped into the accumulation zone, suggesting that ETH has bottomed. 

  • Ether’s multiyear trend line around $1,800-$1,900 holds as support. 

Ether’s volatility hits 12-month highs

Ether’s volatility has seen a sudden spike, suggesting that the market is entering a period of intense activity and strong repricing, according to data from CryptoQuant.

Volatility is a metric used to determine how much and how quickly Ether’s price fluctuates over a given period. 

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Related: ETH options turn bearish as traders prepare for extended Ether price downside

The chart below shows that the realized volatility (30-day) indicator on Binance rose sharply to 0.97 on Thursday from 0.37 in mid-January. 

A spike in realized volatility to such high levels indicates that the “market has emerged from a period of relative calm and entered a highly volatile environment,” CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain said in a Quicktake analysis, adding:

“Past experience has shown that such readings have often preceded a significant upward move in Ethereum’s price.”

Ether price volatility on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

The last time the volatility was this high was late March to early April 2025 as ETH price formed a bottom range of $1,500 to $1,700.

After that, the ETH/USD pair rallied 77% to $2,700 in less than 30 days. A similar spike in Q4/2024 preceded a 74% rally in Ether’s price.

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If history repeats itself, this spike in volatility could mark the end of the downtrend, setting up ETH for a multimonth rally once volatility normalizes and conviction builds.

MVRV Z-Score suggests Ether bottomed below $1,800

Ether’s MVRV Z-Score, one of the most popular onchain metrics used to identify market tops and bottoms, has dropped into the historical accumulation zone (the green line in the chart below), strengthening the argument that ETH may have found its bottom.

Ether MVRV Z-score. Source: Capriole Investments

The last time Ether’s MVRV Z-Score dipped to the current level around -0.31 was in April 2025, after a 66% price drawdown. This coincided with a price bottom at $1,400 and preceded a multi-month rally, with ETH price rising 258% to its $4,950 all-time high

This indicates that, from an onchain perspective, Ether is oversold and may continue the ongoing recovery, potentially rising toward liquidity clusters between $2,200 and $2,500 in the short term.

Ether’s 2020 fractal projects an “explosive climb” for ETH price

Ether’s current technical structure closely mirrors the setup that sparked its 2020-2021 price rally. 

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The monthly chart below suggests that the price is currently holding a multi-year trend line, much like the one that supported the price from December 2018 to April 2020. 

“Every time price holds above this ascending support trend line, it launches into a parabolic rally,” as seen in 2020, analyst Trader Tardigrade said in an X post on Thursday, adding:

”Now $ETH is testing the trendline again. If it holds here, history says we’re gearing up for another explosive climb.”

ETH/USD monthly chart. Source: Trader Tardigrade

This trend line lies within the $1,900 to $1,800 support zone, where investors recently acquired 2.9 million ETH, Glassnode’s cost basis distribution heatmap shows.

As Cointelegraph reported, ETH could continue its recovery to retest the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2,540 if bulls manage to push the price above $2,100.