U.S. oil producers are looking forward to less regulations on crude production under a Donald Trump presidency, meaning higher oil supply and consequently lower prices.

But it’s not that straightforward: Trump who was announced Wednesday as the winner of the 2024 election, has also vowed to put more sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan barrels, meaning the global market could become tighter, potentially boosting prices.

At the same time, the increased likelihood of trade wars under Trump could dampen global economic growth and slow oil demand. So the picture for the market’s longer-term outlook is, well, decidedly mixed.

“Conceptually, the impact of a potential second Trump term on oil prices is ambiguous, with some short-term downside risk to Iran oil supply … and thus upside price risk,” Goldman Sachs commodities analysts wrote in a research note Monday. “But medium-term downside risk to oil demand and thus oil prices from downside risk to global GDP from a potential escalation in trade tensions.”

Trump expressed his enthusiasm for increased U.S. oil production while giving a speech from the Republican campaign headquarters in Florida on Wednesday, just hours before his victory was confirmed. He made a reference to Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., the independent candidate who he said would become a part of his team.

“Bobby, stay away from the oil, stay away from the liquid gold!” Trump said in a joking tone. “We have more than Saudi Arabia and Russia.” Kennedy is known for his history of environmental activism.

U.S. oil and gas production hit record highs under the Biden administration, which gradually changed its approach to the industry despite campaigning on pledges of environmental stewardship.

U.S. crude futures — both West Texas Intermediate and international benchmark Brent crude — are currently trading in the $70 to $75 per barrel range, which is lower than what many oil producers seek to balance their costs and budgets amid slowed global demand for oil and growing supply.

But a further push to open drilling projects, putting more supply on the market, would lead to lower prices, thereby decreasing revenues for American producers, said Cole Smead, president and CEO of Smead Capital.

“If the Trump administration opens up federal leases for oil and gas, Federal lands would get 25% per barrel of revenues. You will have a lot of trouble finding an oil company that can make money at $52.50 per barrel with what they have left from a $70 barrel,” Smead said in emailed notes. “The only thing that will cause drill baby drill to happen is higher oil prices based on these margins.”

“Drill baby, drill is going to run into the energy vigilantes,” he added. “Now that equity investors in the energy business know what free cash flow looks like they won’t give it up. They will allow capital expenditures to go up over their dead body.”

The U.S. is the world’s largest oil producer, accounting for 22% of the global total, according to the Energy Information Administration, with Saudi Arabia next, producing 11%. The vast majority of U.S. crude is consumed within the country, which is also the world’s largest oil consumer.

The CEO of French oil major TotalEnergies told CNBC over the weekend that whoever wins the presidency should ensure that the U.S. doesn’t lose its energy advantage.

“U.S. energy has been unleashed … since the last two, three years, production of oil has never been so high,” in the country, Patrick Pouyanne told CNBC in Abu Dhabi.

“For me, today, the U.S. has a clear competitive advantage on energy compared to many [in the] rest of the world,” he said. “So I will be surprised to see whoever is elected lose the competitive advantage.”

Many in the market forecast lower crude prices due to Trump’s encouragement of domestic oil production and greater supply. Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at London-based Energy Aspects, sees it differently due to the specter of sanctions.

“Every hedge fund I’ve spoken to thinks bearish, because [Trump has] tended to tweet about low oil prices … I actually think it’s the opposite,” she said. “There’s an enormous amount of sanctioned barrels right now in the market, especially Iranian volumes.” Iran is currently producing 3.5 million barrels per day of crude or more, Sen said, with 1.8 million of those being exported, as sanctions and their enforcement loosened under the Biden administration.

“You could lose a million barrels per day of that … when Trump was in power, Iranian exports were just 400,000 barrels per day,” Sen said. “Now I’m not saying it’s going to go down all the way, because smuggling networks are bigger and better probably now, but you could lose a million there,” she said, adding that some Venezuelan barrels could go off the market as well.

For Smead, the outlook is bearish, as he predicts lower prices putting many producers — particularly those with higher production costs — in a less-than-ideal situation.

“The price of goods that are produced is the number one factor in America’s policies,” he said. “If you are not the low-cost producer, you should be scared.”

As Donald Trump celebrated his prospective victory on Election Night at Mar-a-Lago, he was joined by a roster of high-profile supporters. Among them were Elon Musk, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick.

One thing those three people have in common: crypto.

It’s an industry that Trump talked little about until recently but has counted on for large amounts of cash for his campaign and related PACs. Getting that money required him to make big promises pertaining to the crypto industry.

Digital asset markets surged on Election Night, with bitcoin hitting a record of over $75,000, as his victory began looking likely. Crypto-linked stocks like Coinbase and MicroStrategy moved higher as well in after-hours trading Tuesday.

With a Republican-controlled Senate on the horizon, Trump has few roadblocks to putting in place a more pro-crypto platform. Here are some of the things he’s pledged to do:

In Nashville in July, Trump headlined the biggest bitcoin conference of the year. In his keynote address, the former president said that if he returned to the White House, he would ensure the federal government never sells off its bitcoin holdings. However, he stopped short of proposing a formal federal reserve of digital currency.

“For too long our government has violated the cardinal rule that every bitcoiner knows by heart: Never sell your bitcoin,” Trump said during his keynote speech.

Trump pledged to maintain the current level of bitcoin holdings that the U.S. has amassed from seizing assets from financial criminals.

“If I am elected, it will be the policy of my administration, United States of America, to keep 100% of all the bitcoin the U.S. government currently holds or acquires into the future,” he said.

Currently, the U.S. Marshals Service regularly auctions off bitcoin as well as other cryptocurrencies held in the country’s coffers such as ether and litecoin. These sales can sometimes trigger drops in crypto prices, like earlier this year when Germany began to liquidate hundreds of millions of dollars worth of bitcoin it had seized.

In public remarks for months, Trump has promised to unseat U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler.

“On day one, I will fire Gary Gensler,” Trump said, referencing the Joe Biden-appointed SEC chairman who has taken an aggressive approach to crypto regulation.

The president does not have the power to fire the SEC chair. Even if Trump were to appoint a new chairman, Gensler would remain a commissioner on the independent agency.

Gensler has brought more than 100 actions against crypto firms during his tenure at the helm of the commission. In multiple interviews, the SEC chair has said he believes much of the industry already belongs under its jurisdiction, and its lawsuits are simply bringing the sector under compliance.

Crypto firms argue that the recent legal battles haven’t given the regulatory clarity the industry has been seeking, and they instead reflect a gross overreach by the commission.

Trump also vowed to create a “bitcoin and crypto presidential advisory council.”

“The rules will be written by people who love your industry, not hate your industry,” he said.

Trump has expressly spoken out about his qualms with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who is widely viewed by the crypto community as an existential threat.

In June in Palm Beach, Florida, about a dozen bitcoin mining executives and experts sat down with Trump for an hour and a half in a small tea room at the Mar-a-Lago Club. The closed-door session marked the first time the former president took a meeting with the technologists securing the $1.5 trillion bitcoin network by running large banks of high-powered machines.

The intimate gathering brought together a coalition of some of the biggest private and public American miners in the business, including representatives from Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital Holdings, Terawulf, CleanSpark and Core Scientific.

Less than four hours after Trump’s roundtable wrapped, the former president took to social media to extol the virtues of the bitcoin mining business.

“Biden’s hatred of Bitcoin only helps China, Russia, and the Radical Communist Left. We want all the remaining Bitcoin to be MADE IN THE USA!!! It will help us be ENERGY DOMINANT!!!” Trump posted on Truth Social shortly after his meeting.

Since then, Trump has on multiple occasions reiterated the sentiment.

“If crypto is going to define the future, I want it to be mined, minted and made in the USA,” Trump declared in Nashville.

“We will be creating so much electricity that you’ll be saying, ‘Please, please, President, we don’t want any more electricity. We can’t stand it!’” he added.

In August, Trump said that, if elected, he would lower interest rates.

The Federal Reserve, which guides the country’s monetary policy, sets the benchmark rate. It also, by design, operates independently from the White House.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell in September decided to slash rates by a half point in its first easing campaign in four years.

Rate cuts and the easing of monetary policy historically dovetails with a surge in crypto prices since it makes it cheaper to borrow money.

Solar stocks sold off overnight as investors see Donald Trump leading in the U.S. presidential election.

Solar stocks are falling on fears that a possible Trump victory would spell trouble for the Inflation Reduction Act, which has fueled a clean energy boom in the U.S. through tax credits to expand solar energy.

The benchmark Invesco Solar ETF was down 7% in overnight trading on brokerage Robinhood. The solar panel manufacturer First Solar tumbled 8% overnight. Residential solar stocks Sunrun and Sunnova fell 6% and 2.6%, respectively. Inverter manufacturer Enphase tumbled 5% and Nextracker was down nearly 5%.

Trump’s campaign platform calls for the termination of the IRA, which he refers to as the “Socialist Green New Deal.” The IRA is one of President Joe Biden’s signature achievements. The law passed on party-line vote in 2022 without any Republican support.

Trump is leading in the electoral college and is projected to win the key swing state of North Carolina, according to NBC News. The future of the IRA, however, will depend not only on whether Trump wins the White House, but whether Republicans also secure control of Congress.

Kamala Harris’ campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon told staff in an email Tuesday that the clearest path to victory for the vice president lies in the so-called Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

LAS VEGAS — In Nevada’s 4th Congressional District, a crypto PAC spent nearly $2 million on ads this cycle to support the reelection of Steven Horsford, a Democratic congressman who’s voted in favor of some major pro-crypto bills.

But watching the ads, you’d learn nothing about that agenda.

“He’s leading on jobs, bringing good paying union jobs to Nevada and rebuilding our infrastructure,” one 30-second commercial says. “He capped insulin prices at $35 a month,” and “worked multiple jobs to support his hard working single mother and siblings in Congress.”

The ad wraps up with the disclosure, “Fairshake is responsible for the content of this ad.”

Fairshake was the largest crypto-aligned super PAC in the 2024 election cycle, spending piles of cash to support crypto allies and vote out antagonists across the country. The group brought in $170 million, accounting for a huge chunk of the amount raised by crypto-related PACs and other groups, which totaled more than $245 million, according to Federal Election Commission data.

Crypto has accounted for nearly half of all corporate money flowing into the election, according to a report from nonprofit watchdog Public Citizen. No other sector is close. That includes oil companies and banks, which have historically been big political contributors. Crypto even outpaced Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, who spent tens of millions of dollars to try and get Republican nominee Donald Trump back in the White House in his contest against Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.

A big part of the crypto industry’s strategy when it came to distributing cash was to identify key races and then flood the zone.

Industry advocacy group Stand With Crypto Alliance, launched by Coinbase last year, developed a grading system for the presidential race and for House and Senate candidates across the country, helping it determine where to spend.

Horsford received an A grade based on his public comments and his voting history while in office. His campaign received money from Fairshake as well as individual donations from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen, venture capitalist and longtime crypto investor Reid Hoffman and billionaire twins Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss.

Nevada is home to two of the thirteen “critical elections” singled out by Stand with Crypto, a designation the group defines as races that are “critical to the future of crypto in America.” In addition to Horsford’s election, the other Nevada race is the Senate contest between Democratic incumbent Jackie Rosen and Republican challenger Sam Brown. Both candidates received an A grade.

According to data shared by Stand with Crypto, 385,000 Nevadans are crypto owners, and more than 16,000 people in the state have signed up to be advocates for the group, which made a stop in Las Vegas in September as part of a multi-state tour.

The other races deemed critical were for Senate in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Massachusetts, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maryland, and for specific House contests in Colorado, Iowa and Oregon.

To reach potential voters, Fairshake isn’t talking a lot about crypto. Nor are its affiliate PACs, which have names like Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress. They’ve collectively spent more than $135 million this cycle, mostly on ads.

“Not mentioning crypto assets explicitly is probably a savvy move to avoid alienating voters who prefer traditional currencies and might be put off by connections to crypto,” said David Nickerson, an associate professor of political science at Temple University who worked in the analytics department for President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign in 2012.

The biggest single target of crypto money this cycle was Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic chair of the Senate Banking Committee. Brown backed Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., in holding hearings on whether digital tokens were tied to terrorism.

In December, Brown told journalists that he wasn’t concerned about the crypto industry’s rumblings against him.

“Bring em’ on,” Politico quoted Brown as saying to a crowd of reporters.

Some $40 million of crypto money has been directed at defeating Brown, and one PAC has paid for five ads designed to boost awareness of Republican rival Bernie Moreno, a blockchain entrepreneur. The race is crucial in determining which party will control the Senate.

Protect Progress, a PAC affiliated with Fairshake, has given more than $10 million apiece to Senate candidates in Arizona and Michigan. In Arizona, the group favors Democrat Ruben Gallego, who is vying for the seat being vacated by Kyrsten Sinema. In Michigan, the preferred choice is Elissa Slotkin, who is currently a Democratic House member.

Democratic Rep. Katie Porter lost in the primary for the California Senate after Fairshake spent over $10 million in ads against her. Defend American Jobs spent more than $3 million to support Republican Jim Justice in West Virginia, who has been declared the winner in West Virginia, replacing exiting Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin.

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