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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world

America has spoken — and emphatically. The history of its democracy is studded with “hinge” elections where voters decisively repudiate the philosophy and record of the outgoing administration and opt for something new. Every now and then, however, there is a result that goes far further and presages inordinate and tumultuous consequences not just for the nation but the world. The 2024 presidential election is one of these.

In voting Donald Trump back into the White House the electorate appears to have concluded that his record as a convicted felon, his unpredictability and his reputation for disdaining the norms of democracy matter less to them than his crisp “America First” prescriptions on the economy, national security and the world. Many of his policies may sound glib, hubristic if not foolhardy to his opponents. Indeed many of them are.

Yet unlike in his first term when Trump took office without a clear plan and was hemmed in by seasoned public servants, this time he knows exactly what he wants to do. He will also be flanked by true believers. For the global economy, America’s allies and the post-1945 international order, this poses huge risks — and, possibly, a calamity.

It is an extraordinary resurrection which speaks to a broader fraying of the appeal of liberal democratic values across the western world. The Democrats will rue their campaign and Kamala Harris’s failure to cut through. But Trump’s victory also points to an overall malaise, to the over-reach of the left’s progressive agenda, and to voters’ questioning the very purpose of democracy if it fails to deliver for them. Europe’s centrist leaders would do well to consider these sentiments as they too face off against the populist right. 

What is in no doubt is that Trump will bestride Washington as a colossus. For months the world has been transfixed by opinion polls suggesting the race was too close to call. Yet the so-called 50-50 nation broke decisively for Trump. He gained ground on the Democrats in 48 of the 50 states in the union. The Republicans may end up controlling both houses of Congress and the White House. This will give Trump far more latitude than in his first term. He will benefit, too, from a sympathetic Supreme Court. Fears of a lurch to American autocracy may be alarmist, but the temptation for him to abuse his power will be acute.

So how to prepare for the return of “Make America Great Again” populism to the seat of world power? At home, Trump’s demoralised opponents will have to do battle in the courts if he tries to force through his more draconian proposed policies. The two most egregious are the threatened mass deportation of illegal immigrants, and a purge of government agencies. America’s institutions emerged intact — just — from Trump’s first term. This time, they will be even more sternly tested.

Trump’s Wall Street backers also face a test. They should not overlook the darker side of his agenda. Beyond the short-term enticement of his proposed tax cuts, they should consider the long-term inflationary implications of his threatened fresh wave of tariffs and the potentially cataclysmic consequences of a trade war. Trump is obsessed not just with raising tariffs on America’s strategic competitor, China, but also penalising countries that have a trade surplus with America.

For America’s allies, there are difficult days ahead. It has long been clear that Americans are tiring of their post-1945 role in policing the world. But it will be far harder now for America’s allies to anticipate the stance of their traditional security guarantor. Trump promises to be quixotic and transactional. The networks of alliances that Joe Biden continued to nurture are less important to him than bilateral ties. Knowing this, east Asian and European allies will court him individually. But the regional alliances, not least Nato, have to be sustained. If not, the winners will surely be Russia and China. Also, a waning of the US-led alliance networks could lead to nuclear proliferation as states long under the American umbrella might deem it prudent to look to their long-term defence.

This election throws so much into the air — and Trump likes it that way. For Ukraine, the uncertainties are especially acute. Trump has insisted he will end the war, but this would surely be on Moscow’s terms. The great fear for Kyiv and Nato is that Trump strikes an overhasty deal that leaves Ukraine without security guarantees and splits Europe. Taiwan, too, will be uneasy given Trump has mused openly over whether America should defend it against China — though his aides suggest this is mere strategic ambiguity. In the Middle East, Trump claims he will bring peace but has not defined what that means, and whether it involves deploying American power alongside Israel and against Iran.

Much will depend on who Trump picks for the big national security roles. But whoever he chooses, it is clear that for the next four years at least the nature of US leadership will change. Multilateral bodies will be disdained, and multilateral treaties all but discarded. Such an approach threatens dire consequences for the green energy transition and efforts to combat global warming. 

One possible silver lining to Trump’s vaunted unpredictability is that it will keep autocrats in Moscow and Beijing guessing too. But his election will also have given succour to authoritarian leaders around the world, many of whom he openly admires. The US may be an imperfect world leader. But there have always been certainties about its leadership, regardless of which party occupies the White House. Sadly, as the Trump world order takes shape, those certainties will be no more.

GREGGS has revealed a new secret menu item which has been branded “the best” by the customers who’ve been lucky enough to try it.

The bakery chain has unveiled two new hot pasta boxes at certain locations, the Sun can reveal.

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The boxes come in two flavours – Mac & Cheese and Meatball Pasta Bake.

The items are advertised as part of deal with one hot pasta box and any drink costing from £5.75.

Greggs told The Sun that the new menu items are only available for now in certain stores in one area of the country.

Those near stores selling the dish have shared their delight at the addition – while others are hoping it soon arrives where they are.

Posting in the Snack Reviews Facebook group, one social media user shared photos of the food alongside the caption: “Seen in Manchester Greggs not sure if they do them in other areas.”

Commenting on the post, one person wrote: “Not in north east yet. I would love those.”

Another branded it “my dream pasta in a box” while another said they were “sorted” if they arrive in Glasgow.

One excited customer claimed “this is not a drill” while someone else said it was “even more reason to love Greggs”.

One lucky Greggs fan even claimed: “I feel like my life’s been changed.”

A Greggs spokesperson told The Sun: “We’re always listening to what our customers want us to offer and adapting based on their tastes and habits, which is why we’re trialling two new hot pasta boxes.

“The Macaroni Cheese and Meatball Pasta will be available in selected shops across the Northwest.”

Greggs has “secret menu’” items that are unique products that you will only find in certain Greggs shops around the UK.

Typically they’r products which take you back to childhood, or remind you of a special place or sweet taste of home.

The items aren’t available on the Greggs website or main menu, they’re only available to buy in store.

For example Tottenham cake is available in London stores while in Glasgow shoppers can get Pineapple cake.

You can see more secret menu items below.

Where can I buy Greggs’ new pasta dishes?

The Macroni Cheese and Meatball pasta boxes are currently available to buy from the following shops:

• Bolton Gate Retail Park
• Manchester Ashton New Road
• Rochdale Riverside Walk
• Manchester Victoria Concourse Kiosk
• Salford Media City
• Manchester Piccadilly
• Blackpool Squires Gate Retail Park
• Manchester St Mary’s Gate
• Fulwood Eastway Retail Park
• Preston Tulketh Mill Retail Park

It’s not clear yet if the pasta dishes will remain a regional secret menu item, or could be rolled out more widely if they prove a hit.

What other secret menu items are available?

According to the Gregg’s website, the following items feature on the secret menu in different reagions.

Pineapple Cake

This tropical little number is exclusive to Greggs shops in Glasgow. Made from a sweet pastry shell, it’s filled with pineapple flavour jam and a sweetened filling, coated in vibrant yellow fondant.

Tottenham Cake

The name is a bit of a giveaway when it comes to where you can find this delicacy. A delicious sponge cake topped with pink fondant icing. Available in our London shops.

Haggis Pie

As the name might suggest, this tasty little snack is Scotland’s most famous dish. A lightly baked pie shell filled with haggis, swede and mashed potato. Available only in our Scotland shops.

Peach Melba

This classic dessert which dates back to the 1800’s is only available in Greggs shops in the North East. Made from a sweet pastry shell, it’s filled with pieces of peach in a light syrup and sweetened cream, finished perfectly with colourful fondant.

Stottie

Ahh the Stottie man! You can’t go far in the North East without hearing about the famous ol’ Stottie.

It may not look like much, but this delicious dough can do no wrong. A delicious, flat-shaped white loaf, covered in a dusting of flour for extra flavour.

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The UK will bring in legislation to safeguard against the risks of artificial intelligence in the next year, technology secretary Peter Kyle has said, as he pledged to invest in the infrastructure that will underpin the sector’s growth.

Kyle told the Financial Times’ Future of AI summit on Wednesday that Britain’s voluntary agreement on AI testing was “working, it’s a good code” but that the long-awaited AI bill would be focused on making such accords with leading developers legally binding.

The legislation, which Kyle said would be presented to MPs in the current parliament, will also turn the UK’s AI Safety Institute into an arms-length government body, giving it “the independence to act fully in the interests of British citizens”. At present, the body is a directorate of the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology.

At the UK-organised AI safety summit last November, companies including OpenAI, Google DeepMind and Anthropic signed a “landmark” but non-binding agreement allowing partner governments to test their forthcoming large language models for risks and vulnerabilities before they were released to consumers.

Kyle said that while he was “not fatalistic” about advancements in AI, “citizens need to know that we are mitigating the potential risks”.

The legislation will focus exclusively on ChatGPT-style “frontier” models: the most-advanced systems, made by just a small cluster of companies, which are capable of generating text, images, and video.

Kyle also pledged to invest in the advanced computing power needed to enable Britain to train its own sovereign AI models and LLMs, after ministers came under fire in August for scrapping funding for an “exascale” supercomputer project at Edinburgh university. It had been promised £800mn by the previous Conservative government.

Exascale supercomputing — defined as the ability to produce a billion billion operations a second — is widely seen as a crucial step to unlocking the widespread adoption of AI.

There are two known fully functional exascale computers in the world, both in the US. Experts believe that China also has at least one, although it has not submitted to international leader boards on compute capacity.

Kyle said the decision to scrap the existing Edinburgh exascale project was a “painful” consequence of Labour’s fiscal inheritance from the Tories.

“I didn’t cut anything because you can’t cut something that doesn’t exist,” he said of the previous government’s failure to hand over any money to the programme despite promises to do so.

While the government would not be able to stump up £100bn to invest in compute infrastructure by itself, it would partner with private companies and investors to “unlock that kind of money going forward”, he said.

Kyle also suggested that the commitments inherited from the previous government were not adequately suited to the needs of the LLM sector today, saying: “If we’d planned for this two years ago, we would have got it wrong.”

“I will make statements specifically on compute, relating to sovereign compute capacity, but also general compute capacity that’s needed right across the economy and society for researchers and businesses alike,” he said. “But when I make an announcement . . . it will be funded, it will be costed and it will be delivered.”

Separately Sarah Cardell, chief executive of the Competition and Markets Authority, said the UK could become a leader in AI innovation and that the antitrust watchdog’s “unique” approach to digital regulation, through its new Digital Markets Unit, would enable a “very targeted, proportionate” approach to Big Tech.

The CMA’s proposed regulation was not “going to deter or chill investment”, Cardell told the FT summit. “There’s a huge opportunity here for this to be a platform for growth for the UK tech sector.”

Close Brothers Asset Management (CBAM) and SEI have agreed a platform technology partnership.

The deal includes the adoption of SEI Wealth Platform and SEI Data Cloud, a fully integrated technology, data and operational outsourcing solution.

CBAM says the partnership with SEI marks a move to deliver its strategic objectives and to be the best place in the UK for wealth management professionals and their clients.

It adds that SEI was selected following a comprehensive, multi-stage selection process involving several providers.

SEI is a wealth platform technology provider and currently has contracts with several wealth companies including Benchmark Capital, Brewin Dolphin and Evelyn Partners.

CBAM also announced that it will also adopt Objectway’s Portfolio Management Solution and outsource order execution activities to Winterflood Business Services (WBS).

A number of CBAM employees will join SEI’s SWP operations team as part of the agreement. SEI and CBAM will work closely to ensure a smooth and successful transition.

CBAM’s chief operating officer Gregg Clarke said: “Our new partnership with SEI marks an important moment for CBAM. The adoption of the SEI Wealth Platform enables us to deliver on our growth strategy, and expand upon our proposition whilst having complete confidence that high-quality service levels will be maintained for our clients.

“After a thorough selection process, it was clear that CBAM and SEI are both culturally and technologically aligned. SEI understands our business and is committed to partnering with us, alongside our new WBS and Objectway partnerships, to help us achieve our strategic objectives.”

Jim London, chief executive of SEI Investments Europe Limited, added: “We’re thrilled to partner with CBAM and to provide access to the full breadth of SEI’s integrated technology, data and operations solutions that can help them achieve their growth aspirations.”

SITTING in the English Channel, just off the western coast of France, Jersey is known for its sandy beaches and rich history.

While the Channel Island is popular with Brits in the summer, it’s been tipped as a top winter destination thanks to the mild temperatures.

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As the most southerly of the Channel Islands, Jersey benefits from mild weather in the winter, making it slightly warmer than the UK mainland.

According to the island’s tourism board, temperatures in Jersey rarely drop below freezing, ranging between 5C to 8C in the winter instead.

Because of its warmer winters, the Channel Island has been tipped as a top winter destination by a team of travel experts from the travel booking site, Omio.

The travel booking website researched the best locations where holidaymakers could experience a Euro Winter, with St Helier, the capital of Jersey topping the list.

Google searches of St Helier as a winter holiday destination rose 171 per cent compared to last year.

As the island’s capital, there are plenty of activities to do in St Helier – especially if there’s a chill in the air.

One of those is Chocolate Bar Jersey – an independent shop where holidaymakers can purchase handmade chocolate.

Other places to shop include the Liberty Wharf Shopping Centre, a restored Victorian shopping centre that’s home to top brands and cafes, and Voisins Department Store.

Mont Orgueil Castle is another popular attraction to visit in Jersey in the winter.

Bird watching is another popular pastime in the winter, with the best months for bird watching between October and March.

This is because plenty of birds migrate to the island for the winter.

Jersey is also said to be home to a year-round dolphin population, meaning holidaymakers may be able to spot the aquatic creatures in the winter.

Earlier this year, Jersey was named one of the world’s best islands in the Condé Nast Traveller’s 2024 Readers’ Choice Awards.

Jersey is known for its wide variety of beaches, with its coastline often being compared to more exotic locations like the Caribbean.

Beauport Beach, which is close to St Brelade’s Bay, is described as a hidden gem.

Arriving at the beach is an adventure, with a steep pathway of steps tumbling down from the cliff face from a small car park.

The south side of the beach is surrounded by granite cliffs and is a well-known sun trap, making it an ideal place for a walk.

Plenty of Jersey’s beaches are surrounded by palm trees, giving the island a tropical feel.

The harbour town of St Aubin’s, located on the southwest side of the island between Portelet Bay and St Helier, is another popular destination on the island.

Originally a fishing village, St Aubin’s used to be the island’s economic centre, with the harbour being central to the town’s history.

Its fort is another highlight, with holidaymakers able to reach the structure at low tide.  

Jersey is a paradise for food lovers – with the island making the most of its local produce like Jersey royal potatoes, Jersey milk, and seafood.

Jersey milk is used to make butter and ice-cream, which is available from many of the island’s cafes and beaches.

The Michelin-starred restaurant – Bohemia Bar & Restaurant at The Club Hotel & Spa in St Helier is one of Jersey’s top offerings.

With its chic atmosphere, bright linen-clad tables, dark wood walls, and modern European cuisine made with local, seasonal, and fresh ingredients, the restaurant has held on to a Michelin star for 20 consecutive years.

Other awards under its belt include four AA Rosettes and a place in the top 1,000 restaurants in the world by LA LISTE in 2022.

The island can be a budget-friendly holiday destination depending on the type of accommodation and activities you choose.

There’s a variety of budget-friendly accommodation options, including guesthouses, B&Bs, and Airbnbs.

Holidaymakers can save money by exploring Jersey on foot thanks to the compact size of the island.

The easiest way to reach Jersey is via ferry or plane, depending on where you live on the UK mainland.

Condor Voyager is a high-speed ferry from Poole to St Helier that takes about four hours. A standard car trip for two can cost from £75 per person each way.

Commodore Clipper is a conventional ferry from Portsmouth to St. Helier that takes about 10 hours and 20 minutes. The average price for a foot passenger is £206, and the average price for a car is £436.

And EasyJet offers cheap flights to Jersey starting from £26.99 in November.

Meanwhile, these are six secret holiday spots in Europe.

And this French holiday spot has been described as “unfairly overlooked”.

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Donald Trump’s election victory has sent a shudder through Europe and Asia as policymakers and executives digested the implications of a US-led lurch towards protectionism.

Europe’s export-oriented countries — led by the region’s largest economy, Germany — are heavily exposed to the US president-elect’s claims that he would tighten trade restrictions and loosen security ties with the US’s allies.

Moritz Schularick, president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, described a second Trump presidential term as “the most difficult economic moment” in Germany’s postwar history.

Berlin was “not prepared” to deal with the challenges both in foreign trade and security policy that it will soon face, he said, adding that it would now need to “invest massively” in defence capabilities.

The repercussions for the global economy are neither immediate nor straightforward, however.

Many analysts expect the next president’s vow to make his 2017 tax cuts on corporates and the wealthy permanent to initially boost growth. “Fiscal stimulus might dominate and be a small positive” in the near term, said Innes McFee at Oxford Economics.

US equity markets surged to an intraday high after Trump’s decisive victory, as investors focused on the prospect for lower corporate taxes and deregulation.

If Trump carries through his plans for higher tariffs — 20 per cent for exporters outside China, where a 60 per cent levy could be imposed — it would raise the prospect of tit-for-tat trade measures that would derail trade. But it will be many months before the details of Trump’s trade policy comes into view.

“The rest-of-world impact is dominated by what the eventual tariff regime is going to look like,” McFee said.

Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said he expected shipping rates to soar as companies rush to send goods to the US ahead of the president-elect’s inauguration on January 20.

“The knee-jerk reaction from US shippers will be to front-load imports before Trump is able to impose his new tariffs,” Sand said. “If you have warehouse space and the goods to ship, front-loading imports is the simplest way to manage this risk in the short term — but it will bring its own problems.”

In a sign of the longer-term pressures a US lurch towards protectionism augurs, stocks in global shipping companies dipped on Wednesday.

Shares in Maersk, the world’s second-largest container shipping group, fell 7.6 per cent while Hapag-Lloyd was down by 5.8 per cent by noon.

Modelling from the IMF points to a wider economic hit if Trump’s threatened tariffs target a “sizeable swath” of global trade.

The tariffs — alongside the rest of his economic agenda of tighter migration rules, extended US tax cuts and higher global borrowing costs — would erase 0.8 per cent from economic output next year and 1.3 per cent in 2026, the fund said last month. 

Krishna Guha, vice-chair at Evercore ISI, said he expected the Trump “macro shock” would have sharply diverging implications for the global economy, with the US experiencing higher prices and growth while other countries suffered disinflation and a dip in output.

Hildegard Müller, head of a trade body representing Germany’s struggling car sector, said the pressure on manufacturers to relocate production from Europe to the US would be “enormous”.

Michael Hüther, president of the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, said German companies should “brace for a costly trade war as of today”.

Ireland, home to the European headquarters or large operations of major US tech and pharma companies, also has an outsized trading relationship with the US. 

“This is a really big issue for the Irish economy,” said Dan O’Brien, chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs. He added that the imposition of across the board tariffs was “the biggest near-term risk” for the Irish economy. 

Europe as a whole appears acutely vulnerable, with the US accounting for a fifth of the bloc’s total exports last year, according to Eurostat data. At €502bn, EU exports were 46 per cent larger than the region’s imports of US goods.

Trump’s tariffs would hit an “already fragile Eurozone economy”, ABN Amro economists warned, with “the downside risks” to growth and inflation having significantly increased.

The outcome would be lower interest rates in the region — and a bigger gap between borrowing costs in the currency bloc and the US.

While most European shares lost ground, Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International, which remains the largest western lender still operating in Russia, was the best performer on the Euro Stoxx banks index, up more than 6 per cent. During the campaign Trump repeatedly claimed he could quickly end the war in Ukraine.

The implications elsewhere will depend on how far Trump goes in pursuing his anti-globalisation agenda.

Asian exporters are exposed to higher trade barriers, with China’s already-weak economy set to suffer acutely if Trump goes ahead with plans to impose a 60 per cent levy on all Chinese exports to the US.

Analysts at Citigroup argued that the 60 per cent China threat feels more like a “bargaining chip” than a real risk.

Mexico, which has overtaken China as the biggest exporter to the US, is also vulnerable despite a free trade deal inked with the US and Canada during Trump’s first term.

He has vowed to impose tariffs — including a 200 per cent levy on cars imported from Mexico — unless its southern neighbour curbs the flow of migrants across its border.

Japanese automaker Honda warned on Wednesday of an “extremely big impact” on its exports to the US from Mexican plants should Trump follow through on that pledge.

For America’s trading partners, the immediate prospect is an extended spell of heightened uncertainty, as the world’s most important economy undergoes a historic regime shift. 

“Trump remains unpredictable and erratic,” said Holger Schmieding, economist at Berenberg Bank. “We thus cannot really gauge which of his often grandiose and not always consistent campaign promises he would actually implement.”

Additional reporting by Laura Pitel in Berlin, Jude Webber in Dublin and Kana Inagaki, Daria Mosolova and Mari Novik in London

Data visualisation by Patrick Mathurin and Janina Conboye