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Google’s Gemini AI Predicts the Price of XRP, Dogecoin and Shiba Inu by the end of 2026

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Google's Gemini AI Predicts the Price of XRP, Dogecoin and Shiba Inu by the end of 2026

Google’s Gemini AI leverages its parent company’s vast data sets whenever forming conclusions.

It’s somewhat surprising, given months of red candles, that Gemini is pretty bullish XRP, Dogecoin, and Shiba Inu, and thinks all of them will hit towering new all-time highs (ATHs) over the next ten months.

But how realistic are Gemini’s projections?

XRP ($XRP): Gemini AI Prophesies 9x Surge To $13 by Christmas

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In a recent update, Ripple reiterated that XRP ($XRP) remains a core pillar of its long-term vision to establish the XRP Ledger as a global, enterprise-ready payments network.

Google's Gemini AI Predicts the Price of XRP, Dogecoin and Shiba Inu by the end of 2026
Source: Google Gemini

With fast settlement times and minimal transaction costs, the XRP Ledger is in a great position to capitalize on two rapidly expanding areas: stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets.

Currently trading around $1.44, Gemini’s long-term forecasting points to a 2026 high of $13, implying gains of 9x for current HODLers.

Technical indicators asupport this scenario. XRP’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a neutral 43 and the price has converged with the 30-day moving average, hinting that the prolonged and painful consolidation phase might be over.

Additional price drivers could include institutional demand following the rollout of U.S. listed XRP ETFs, Ripple’s growing network of global partnerships, and improved regulatory clarity if the U.S. passes the CLARITY bill this year.

Dogecoin (DOGE): Is the $1 Milestone Finally on the Horizon?

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Launched in 2013 as a parody, Dogecoin ($DOGE) is now one of the most recognized digital assets, with a market capitalization of almost $15 billion, nearly half of the $35 billion meme coin sector.

DOGE last peaked at $0.7316 during the retail-fueled crypto rally of 2021.

For much of its history, the Dogecoin community has rallied around the goal of reaching $1. According to Gemini AI, under strong bullish conditions DOGE could comfortably overshoot that target this year, after clearing sticky resistance at $0.20 and $0.40.

With the token currently trading just below $0.10, a move toward $1.50 would net an explosive 15x for current holders.

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Real-world adoption continues apace. Tesla accepts DOGE for select merchandise, while PayPal and Revolut now support Dogecoin transactions.

Shiba Inu (SHIB): Gemini AI Thinks a 1,500% SHIB Rally is Incoming

Shiba Inu ($SHIB), introduced in 2020 as a tongue-in-cheek rival to Dogecoin, has since grown into an ecosystem with a market capitalization of over $3.5 billion.

At its current price near $0.000006, Gemini’s analysis suggests that a decisive breakout above the $0.000025–$0.00003 resistance range could trigger strong upside momentum, potentially pushing SHIB toward $0.0001 before year-end.

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That move would equate to gains of roughly 17x, placing it just above SHIB’s October 2021 ATH of $0.00008616.

The project offers much more than just meme coin speculation. Shiba Inu’s Ethereum Layer-2 network, Shibarium, delivers faster transaction speeds, reduced fees, enhanced privacy features, and a more robust environment for developers.

Maxi Doge: Early-Stage Meme Coin Targets Outsized Growth

While Gemini’s outlook suggests Dogecoin and Shiba Inu could still post significant gains, their already sizable market caps limits extreme upside in a bull run compared with smaller, newer, canine coins.

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Maxi Doge ($MAXI) is coming for them. The project has raised $4.6 million in its ongoing presale as traders pile in to snap up the next biggest Doge-themed coin before the CLARITY Act passes.

Maxi Doge is a loud, degenerate, gym bro and alpha doge. He claims to be both a rival and an envious distant cousin to Dogecoin in a viral marketing campaign that embraces the fun and irreverent tone that defined the 2021 meme coin boom.

MAXI is issued as an ERC-20 token on the Ethereum proof-of-stake network, resulting in a smaller environmental footprint compared with Dogecoin’s proof-of-work model.

Early presale buyers can currently stake MAXI for returns of up to 67% APY, with yields gradually decreasing as the staking pool expands.

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The token is $0.0002806 in the current presale stage, with automatic price increases scheduled at each funding milestone. Purchases are supported via wallets such as MetaMask and Best Wallet.

Stay updated through Maxi Doge’s official X and Telegram pages.

Visit the Official Website Here.

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Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT alleges Axiom employee conducted insider trading

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Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT alleges Axiom employee conducted insider trading

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AXIOM EMPLOYEE ACCUSED OF ALLEGEDLY INSIDER TRAINING BY ZACHXBT: Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT said a senior employee at onchain trading platform Axiom Exchange allegedly abused internal access to user data to track private wallets and potentially trade memecoins using inside information. In a thread posted to X, ZachXBT said Broox Bauer, a New York-based senior business development employee at Axiom, used internal dashboards to look up sensitive user information — including linked wallet addresses — and shared that data with a small group that mapped trades of prominent crypto influencers. Axiom, founded in 2024 by Mist and Cal and a member of Y Combinator’s Winter 2025 cohort, has generated more than $390 million in revenue to date, according to the investigator. ZachXBT said he was retained to investigate allegations that internal tools were being misused. He did not say who retained him. In audio clips shared in the thread, a person said to be Bauer allegedly claims he can track “any Axiom user” by referral code, wallet address or UID and “find out anything to do with that person.” In the same recording, he describes initially researching 10–20 wallets and gradually increasing activity “so it does not look that suspicious.” — Oliver Knight Read more.

EF ‘STRAWMAP’ ROADMAP RELEASED: Ethereum Foundation published a roadmap that reads like it’s building for the next decade, not surviving the current quarter. The document, called the “strawmap” and released Wednesday by EF researcher Justin Drake, lays out a plan for seven hard forks through 2029. Hard forks are network-wide software upgrades that every node must implement or get left behind, making them the highest-stakes type of change Ethereum can make. The plan is organized around five goals described as “north stars.” These include a faster layer 1 with transaction finality in seconds; dramatically higher layer-1 throughput capable of around 10,000 transactions per second (referred to as “gigagas” scale); Layer-2 networks reaching “teragas” levels of throughput, or roughly 10 million TPS; post-quantum cryptography and built-in privacy through shielded ETH transfers. — Shaurya Malwa Read more.

ROBINHOOD CHAIN TESTNET UPDATE: Robinhood’s (HOOD) testnet logged 4 million transactions in the first week its testnet chain went live, the investment platform’s CEO Vlad Tenev said on X. The Robinhood Chain, which focuses on tokenization and trading, comes as centralized exchanges are looking to build their own blockchain infrastructure even as the broader Ethereum ecosystem debates its future. “Developers are already building on our L2, designed for tokenized real world assets and onchain financial services,” Tenev wrote. Testnets are risk-free environments for developers to test code and experimental features before the mainnet goes live. The two stages of a network’s development can be compared to a flight simulator and a commercial flight. The Robinhood Chain’s testnet has arrived against the backdrop of a larger reckoning in the Ethereum world. Earlier this month, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin declared that the protocol’s long-held layer-2 (L2) rollup-centric roadmap “no longer makes sense,” arguing that many rollups have fallen short of full decentralization and that Ethereum’s base layer is scaling faster than expected. — Margaux Nijkerk Read more.

OPENAI DIPS ITS TOES INTO SMART CONTRACTS: OpenAI is stepping deeper into crypto security with the debut of EVMbench, a testing framework designed to measure how well artificial intelligence can understand and potentially secure smart contracts on Ethereum and similar blockchains. Smart contracts, the self-executing code deployed on blockchains like Ethereum, underpin decentralized exchanges, lending protocols and a wide range of onchain financial applications. Because these contracts are typically immutable once deployed, vulnerabilities can be serious. EVMbench is OpenAI’s attempt to see whether modern AI systems are up to the task of helping prevent those issues. Built in collaboration with crypto investment firm Paradigm, the benchmark draws on real-world smart contract vulnerabilities already uncovered through audits and security competitions. The system measures performance across three core abilities: identifying security bugs, exploiting those bugs in a controlled environment and fixing the vulnerable code without breaking the contracts. OpenAI says the goal is to establish a clear standard for evaluating AI systems in blockchain security, especially as decentralized finance continues to secure billions of dollars in user funds. The stakes for smart contracts are only rising. — Margaux Nijkerk Read more.

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In Other News

  • Meta, the U.S. tech giant helmed by Facebook creator Mark Zuckerberg, aims to enter the stablecoin space later this year, pending successful integration with a third-party firm to facilitate payments using the dollar-pegged token technology, according to three people familiar with the plans. The tech giant, which owns Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram and has more than 3 billion users, wants to begin its stablecoin integration early in the second half of this year, said one of the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the plans are not public. Meta is planning to integrate a vendor to help administer stablecoin-backed payments and implement a new wallet, the person said. A second person said that Meta has sent out a request for product (RFP) to third-party firms and mentioned Stripe as a likely candidate for piloting the stablecoin. Introducing stablecoins would let Meta open payment rails to its massive user base while bypassing expensive traditional banking fees, and potentially position it as a global leader in “social commerce” and cross-border remittances. — Ian Allison Read more.
  • American Bitcoin (ABTC), the bitcoin mining company backed by the family of President Donald Trump, said it lost $59 million in the fourth quarter as the plummeting price of the largest cryptocurrency eroded the value of its holdings. The company, which went public in September, less than a month before the largest cryptocurrency hit a record high, is pursuing a dual strategy of mining and purchases, with roughly one-third of its BTC coming from mining operations. The rest comes from open-market purchases and strategic transactions, funded in large part by selling stock. The company, which is 20% owned by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr, generated $150.5 million through an at-the-market stock offering during the quarter. The capital allowed it to boost its per-share bitcoin exposure by nearly 50%. It now holds more than 6,000 BTC, it said. During the quarter, it mined bitcoin at a 53% gross margin, suggesting production costs were significantly below spot prices even as the price of the cryptocurrency fell. Revenue rose 22% from the third quarter. — Francesco Rodrigues & James Van Straten Read more.

Regulatory and Policy

  • The Indiana state legislature authorized public retirement and savings plans to gain exposure to digital assets and spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), while affirming residents’ access to crypto investments. Governor Mike Braun is expected to sign HB 1042 into law within the next 10 days. Indiana joins at least seven other states, including Wyoming, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona, that have moved to integrate crypto-linked products into public investment frameworks. Almost half of the state governments in the U.S. are either on a path toward putting some of their money into crypto or already have, with much of this trend developing since President Donald Trump directed his administration to establish a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. — Olivier Acuna Read more.
  • The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned a Russian company, Operation Zero, and the individuals behind it, including Sergey Sergeyevich Zelenyuk, after accusing them of buying stolen cyber tools for millions in cryptocurrency and reselling those technologies, which were created for U.S. government use. The tools were said to be originally stolen by an Australian national, Peter Williams, who once worked at the defense contractor that made the national-security focused software “for the exclusive use of the U.S. government and select allies.” Williams pleaded guilty last year to selling trade secrets. “Treasury will continue to work alongside the rest of the Trump Administration to protect sensitive American intellectual property and safeguard our national security,” said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent in a statement. Zelenyuk and the others are said to be the first people to be sanctioned under the Protecting American Intellectual Property Act. — Jesse Hamilton Read more.

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World Liberty Financial ties voting power to staking as USD1 supply tops $4.7 Billion

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House probe targets World Liberty Financial after report of $500 Million UAE stake

World Liberty Financial is moving to lock up governance power, requiring token holders to stake their WLFI for six months before they can vote on the protocol’s future.

A new proposal would require holders of unlocked WLFI tokens to stake for at least 180 days to vote, while creating “Node” and “Super Node” tiers that grant large stakers access to subsidized 1:1 conversions into its USD1 stablecoin and direct partnership discussions with the team.

Under the framework, holders who stake at least 10 million WLFI, roughly $1 Million at current prices, would qualify as “Nodes,” gaining access to over-the-counter stablecoin conversion channels facilitated by licensed market makers. World Liberty Financial said it would subsidize those market makers to maintain parity, effectively passing arbitrage opportunities that previously generated 10 to 15 basis points per cycle to qualifying stakers.

Participants who stake 50 million WLFI, about $5 Million, would qualify as “Super Nodes,” receiving guaranteed access to the team for partnership discussions and potential eligibility for additional economic incentives, subject to commercial agreements.

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Stakers would earn an estimated 2% annual reward in WLFI, funded by the project’s treasury and contingent on participating in governance votes. The proposal comes as USD1’s circulating supply has grown to roughly $4.7 Billion, making it one of the largest stablecoins in the market.

A date for voting has not yet been determined.

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Bitcoin slides Friday after Nvidia’s earning pullback

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Bitcoin slides Friday after Nvidia's earning pullback

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market headed into Friday on the back foot, with most major tokens posting losses over the last 24 hours as traders continued to de-risk alongside equities following Nvidia’s earnings-driven pullback.

Bitcoin was trading around $67,766 at the time of writing, down 1.5% on the day but still clinging to a 0.6% gain on the week. Ethereum mirrored the move, off 1.5% in 24 hours to trade just above $2,047. Both remain stuck in a narrow range that has defined price action since the Feb. 5 crash, with Wednesday’s push toward $70,000 marking the upper boundary and this week’s lows testing the middle.

The selling pressure, however, looks more like a leverage flush than a structural breakdown. Hourly returns across the board were green Friday morning, meaning the bulk of the drawdown happened overnight and buyers have quietly stepped back in at these levels.

“What you’re seeing right now is Bitcoin trading with the broader risk market,” said Daniel Reis-Faria, CEO of ZeroStack. “Nasdaq fell after Nvidia earnings, and crypto followed. Bitcoin pushed closer to $70,000 pretty quickly, and when momentum in equities stalls, that fast money comes off just as quickly in Bitcoin.”

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Reis-Faria sees the move as positioning cleanup rather than a trend reversal. “A lot of leverage came back into the system on that push higher, and when stocks start selling, crypto is usually the first place people de-risk. Volatility is elevated because liquidity is tight across the board.”

Zoom out to the weekly chart and the picture looks considerably healthier. Cardano led major assets with a 7% gain over seven days. Solana added 5.5%, Ethereum 4.8%, and BNB 4.3%, all outpacing Bitcoin’s comparatively modest weekly return and suggesting altcoin appetite remains intact beneath the surface noise.

XRP was the notable exception, down 3.7% in 24 hours and the only top asset in the red on a 7-day basis at -0.1%. The underperformance stands out given that most altcoins absorbed the same macro headwinds without giving back weekly gains.

The broader macro backdrop adds context. Asian equities are on track for their best February since 1998, led by South Korean tech names up roughly 20% this month as investors rotated into AI infrastructure plays.

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That rally has drawn capital away from U.S. markets, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index set to outperform the S&P 500 for a third consecutive month.

For crypto, the throughline is the same one it has been for weeks. “We’re still in the same range we’ve been in,” Reis-Faria said. “Until we see consistent new demand, these moves are going to keep happening. Bitcoin trades like a macro asset. When equities pull back, Bitcoin pulls back.”

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Protocol Codebase Improvements & $20M+ Funding

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Protocol Codebase Improvements & $20M+ Funding

Mutuum Finance (MUTM) is a decentralized lending and borrowing protocol currently operating on the Sepolia testnet, where its core features are being tested ahead of a planned mainnet launch. The team has reported ongoing improvements to the protocol’s codebase, while total funds raised have surpassed $20.65 million, according to project disclosures.

Mutuum Finance (MUTM)

Recently on X, the team published a “weekly update” outlining ongoing improvements to the protocol. The update stated: “The team has been working on a few upcoming features, while also improving key parts of the codebase, including optimizations to the Stability Factor.” The post also noted, “Next week, we’re rolling out a new feature. Stay tuned.”

A few days earlier, the team reported that more than $20.6 million had been raised and highlighted current participation metrics, including over $150 million in testnet total value locked (TVL). While the MUTM token is currently priced at $0.04, with more than 850 million tokens sold to over 19,000 holders.

How to Lend and Borrow with Mutuum Finance?

Ahead of its planned mainnet release, users can test the core features of the protocol on the Sepolia testnet. In the current beta application, users can connect a wallet and mint testnet assets such as WBTC, ETH, LINK, and USDT. These assets can be supplied to the protocol, with mtTokens issued in return as proof of deposit, allowing users to observe how the lending and borrowing mechanics function within the platform.

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For example, supplying WBTC results in the issuance of mtWBTC. These mtTokens can also be staked, allowing users to observe how MUTM token dividends would be distributed within the system.

Beside mtTokens and liquidity pools, the team has also outlined additional core features currently integrated into the testnet version of the platform.

Debt Token – When a user borrows assets, a corresponding debt token is minted. This token represents the borrowed amount and tracks the principal plus accumulated interest over time.

Liquidator Bot – An automated mechanism that monitors borrowing positions and triggers liquidations if collateral levels fall below required thresholds, helping maintain protocol solvency.

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Stability Factor – A risk indicator that measures how safe a borrowing position is by comparing the value of collateral to the borrowed amount. A higher stability factor reflects a more secure position.

The smart contract for the lending and borrowing protocol underwent a security audit conducted by Halborn prior to its testnet release. Halborn is a blockchain security firm that has also performed audits for major projects, including Coinbase, according to the firm’s public disclosures.

While the current focus remains on improving the core protocol, the whitepaper outlines additional long-term development plans. These include multichain expansion to broaden network compatibility and ecosystem reach.

The document also references the introduction of a native overcollateralized stablecoin in the future. The proposed stablecoin is intended to maintain a 1:1 alignment with the U.S. dollar and would be minted against collateral supplied within the protocol.

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Mutuum Finance continues to develop its lending and borrowing protocol while reporting funding and participation milestones during the testnet phase. With core mechanics live on Sepolia and additional upgrades in progress, the project remains focused on refining infrastructure ahead of a planned mainnet launch.

Future expansion plans, including multichain integration and a native stablecoin, indicate a broader roadmap, with further progress expected as development advances toward planned mainnet deployment.

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Vitalik Buterin Details Ethereum Quantum Defense Roadmap

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR

  • Vitalik Buterin introduced a roadmap to protect Ethereum from future quantum computing risks.
  • He identified validator signatures, data availability, wallet signatures, and zero-knowledge proofs as key risk areas.
  • Buterin proposed replacing BLS validator signatures with hash-based signatures to improve quantum resistance.
  • He said Ethereum may replace KZG commitments with quantum-safe alternatives through protocol upgrades.
  • The planned EIP-8141 upgrade would allow wallets to adopt new signature schemes in the future.

Vitalik Buterin has presented a structured plan to shield Ethereum from future quantum computing risks. He outlined technical upgrades that would protect digital signatures, data systems, and cryptographic proofs. The proposal follows the Ethereum Foundation’s creation of a dedicated post-quantum research team.

He shared the roadmap in a post on X on Thursday and identified four core risk areas. He said quantum computers could eventually break current cryptographic systems. Although such machines do not yet exist, he urged early preparation.

Buterin listed validator signatures, data availability, wallet signatures, and zero-knowledge proofs as exposure points. He explained that Ethereum must update these components before quantum systems mature. He also described both short-term and long-term technical paths.

Vitalik Buterin targets validator signatures and Ethereum consensus

Buterin focused on validator signatures used in Ethereum’s consensus process. He explained that validators currently rely on BLS digital signatures to confirm blocks. He warned that quantum computers could break BLS signatures in the future.

He proposed replacing BLS with hash-based signatures that resist quantum attacks. He stated that hash-based systems offer stronger protection against quantum algorithms. He added that developers must redesign validator workflows to support the transition.

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He also addressed Ethereum’s data availability system that stores transaction batches. He said the network relies on KZG commitments to verify large data sets. He explained that engineers could replace KZG with quantum-safe alternatives, although the change would require deep protocol updates.

He noted that such updates would increase engineering complexity. He said developers must handle performance trade-offs carefully. He stressed that the network can execute these changes with coordinated upgrades.

Ethereum wallets, EIP-8141, and zero-knowledge proofs

Buterin linked wallet security to a planned upgrade called EIP-8141. He explained that most wallets now depend on one signature standard for transaction approval. He said EIP-8141 would allow accounts to adopt new signature schemes in the future.

He described EIP-8141 as a flexibility upgrade for Ethereum accounts. He stated that users could migrate to quantum-safe signatures when required. He added that this approach avoids forced network-wide signature changes.

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He also discussed risks tied to zero-knowledge proofs used by privacy tools and layer-2 networks. He said current quantum-safe proofs cost more to verify on Ethereum. He acknowledged that higher verification costs create technical challenges.

Buterin proposed a longer-term mechanism called validation frames within EIP-8141. He said validation frames would bundle multiple signatures and proofs into one compressed proof. He explained that Ethereum would verify one combined proof instead of many individual checks.

He stated that this compression method would lower on-chain verification work. He said the system would help manage costs while adopting quantum-safe cryptography. The Ethereum Foundation established its post-quantum research team shortly before it released this roadmap.

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Senate Pushes Back on Bankman-Fried’s Clarity Act Endorsement

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR

  • Sam Bankman-Fried publicly endorsed the Clarity Act while serving a 25-year prison sentence.
  • Republican and Democratic senators rejected his support for the crypto legislation.
  • Senator Cynthia Lummis said her bill differs from the proposal Bankman-Fried backed in 2022.
  • Senator Elizabeth Warren said his endorsement should raise concerns about the legislation.
  • The Senate continues to debate crypto market structure and stablecoin oversight rules.

Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried publicly backed the Clarity Act while serving a 25-year prison sentence. Lawmakers from both parties rejected his support and questioned his motives. His comments arrive as the Senate continues work on broader cryptocurrency legislation.

Clarity Act Draws Bipartisan Rejection

Bankman-Fried endorsed the Clarity Act in a post on X on Wednesday.

He wrote, “The CLARITY Act will be a huge milestone for crypto and a huge achievement for @realDonaldTrump.” He also claimed he supported similar reforms before his arrest.

He said he sought to remove crypto oversight from former SEC Chair Gary Gensler. He added that Gensler “helped Biden’s DOJ put me behind bars.” His remarks quickly triggered responses from lawmakers involved in drafting legislation.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis rejected his endorsement in a direct reply.

She wrote, “My legislation couldn’t be more different than the bill you tried to buy from Congress.” She added, “We do not need nor want your support.”

Lummis leads Republican efforts to advance digital asset legislation in the Senate. She said her framework would have imposed tougher penalties. She also stated that broader legislation could have extended his prison sentence.

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Sen. Elizabeth Warren also criticized Bankman-Fried’s comments. She said his support “should set off alarm bells.” Warren added that any crypto bill must protect investors and taxpayers.

The Senate Banking Committee continues negotiations on market structure rules. Lawmakers aim to define oversight roles for the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. However, disagreements remain over stablecoin yield provisions.

Past Legislative Efforts and Political Context

In 2022, Bankman-Fried supported the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act, known as DCCPA. He urged lawmakers to pass the bill shortly before authorities arrested him. His arrest later stalled momentum for that proposal.

A federal court convicted Bankman-Fried on multiple fraud and conspiracy charges. Prosecutors said he misused billions in customer funds from FTX. The court sentenced him to 25 years in prison.

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Bankman-Fried now appeals his conviction in federal court. At the same time, he posts frequently on X about policy and politics. Many posts express support for President Donald Trump.

A White House official told The Block that Trump has no plans to pardon him. Bankman-Fried’s recent posts appear to address current policy debates. His endorsement of the Clarity Act fits within that pattern.

The House passed its version of the Clarity Act over the summer. Senate lawmakers continue drafting related measures. They also debate how to address conflicts of interest tied to the Trump family’s crypto ventures.

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$8.72B Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry: Pain Trade Looms?

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Bitcoin Expiring Options

Over $8.72 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today, marking February’s largest derivatives event.

The expiring options place the crypto market at a critical inflection point, with volatility elevated and sentiment fragile.

February’s $8.72 Billion Expiry Crossroads: Will Bitcoin and Ethereum Face the Pain Trade?

Bitcoin accounts for the lion’s share of the exposure, with 114,705 contracts representing $7.74 billion in notional value heading into settlement.

Bitcoin Expiring Options
Bitcoin Expiring Options. Source: Deribit

Ethereum follows with 478,992 contracts worth approximately $975 million. Combined, the expiries account for roughly 20% of total open interest, suggesting their potential market impact.

At current prices, both assets sit notably below their respective “max pain” levels or the strike price at which the greatest number of options expire worthless.

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Bitcoin was trading for $68,052, compared to a max pain level of $75,000. Ethereum changes hands near $2,035, below its $2,200 max pain threshold.

Call open interest (OI) dominates across both assets. Bitcoin shows 66,300 call contracts versus 48,405 puts, giving a put-to-call ratio of 0.73. Ethereum’s ratio stands at 0.78, with 268,642 calls and 210,350 puts outstanding.

Ethereum Expiring Options
Ethereum Expiring Options. Source: Deribit

Analysts at Deribit note that call OI leads across both majors, with Bitcoin carrying the significantly larger notional weight into settlement. This factor could amplify spot sensitivity if hedging flows intensify.

Volatility Divergence Signals Unease

Meanwhile, volatility metrics reveal a nuanced picture. According to Deribit data, Bitcoin’s DVOL index sits at 53, with an implied volatility (IV) percentile of 87.7, which is elevated relative to its historical range.

BTC Volatility Index showing elevated implied volatility
BTC DVOL at 53.05 with IV percentile of 87.7, showing high volatility ahead of February expiry (Source: Deribit)

Ethereum’s DVOL is higher in absolute terms at 70, but its IV percentile of 55.7 suggests it is less extreme than its historical behavior.

Still, Ethereum volatility is running approximately 15–20 points above Bitcoin across the curve. It indicates traders are pricing in materially higher uncertainty across ETH maturities.

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Term structure remains in contango for both assets, with a front-end volatility premium concentrated around the February expiry.

Fear Unwinds, But Conviction Lags

Earlier this month, 25-delta skew for both Bitcoin and Ethereum plunged toward -30, reflecting intense demand for downside protection as prices slid sharply.

Since then, skew has steadily recovered to around -8 to -9, signaling that panic hedging has eased. However, skew remains negative, indicating the market has not fully shaken off its defensive posture. Against this backdrop, analysts at Greeks.live describe the broader market as sluggish.

In early February, Bitcoin briefly tested the $60,000 psychological threshold and has since oscillated weakly above it.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

While a recent two-day rebound lifted implied volatility (with BTC main-term IV at 47% and ETH at 65%) confidence remains thin.

“The downward price trend has eased, but market confidence remains insufficient,” Greeks.live noted, adding that large-block call options have dominated recent trading activity, particularly in medium- to long-term maturities.

Skew metrics rebounding indicates emerging bottom-fishing activity, but the firm cautions that the market remains firmly in bear territory.

Crucially, analysts argue that the crypto market lacks fresh capital inflows and clear catalysts, with pessimistic narratives still dominating social channels. Despite signs that extreme fear is unwinding, conviction behind the rebound appears tentative.

With both Bitcoin and Ethereum trading well below their max pain levels, spot prices could gravitate higher heading into today’s options expiry. Such an outcome could intensify a potential “pain trade.”

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However, subdued demand could allow volatility to compress after expiry, with derivatives markets pricing less panic, but not yet a return of confidence.

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Block’s retreat to 2019 scale could be a hint of deeper shifts in payments economics

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(Citrini Research)

Fintech company Block is shrinking back toward its pre-pandemic size, cutting staff to about 6,000 from a Covid-era peak of over 10,000, compared with just 3,800 in 2019.

CEO Jack Dorsey says AI allows smaller teams to move faster. While that’s certainly true, the reset may reflect a tougher reality: stablecoin rails are likely beginning to compress the card-based fees that fueled the company’s expansion.

Block built its business on a payments system that charges merchants a percentage of every swipe. Stablecoins threaten to turn that percentage into pennies, shrinking the economic pie that acquirers and card-linked fintechs divide. That shift, more than headcount discipline, may define the company’s next chapter.

A recent note from Citrini Research titled “When Friction Went to Zero” argues that the rise of agentic shopping — where AI assistants autonomously compare prices, optimize payment routes, and execute transactions on behalf of users — could accelerate the shift away from card networks and toward stablecoin rails.

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(Citrini Research)

In that environment, settlement happens in seconds at near-zero cost, and machines prioritize price and speed over brand loyalty or checkout design.

The 2% to 3% merchant fee that sustains the traditional payments stack becomes harder to justify when an AI agent can route the same transaction for pennies, leaving companies like Block exposed to structural margin compression rather than temporary competitive pressure.

This is not Block’s first attempt at resizing. In early 2024, the company began cutting staff under a previously disclosed plan to reduce headcount by as much as 10%, capping its workforce at 12,000 after ballooning to roughly 13,000 in 2023.

At the time, Dorsey acknowledged that “the growth of our company has far outpaced the growth of our business and revenue,” framing the move as a correction to pandemic-era over expansion.

The latest reduction, far deeper at nearly 40%, suggests the recalibration is no longer just about aligning costs with revenue, but about adjusting to a payments landscape where fee compression could be structural.

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Investors cheered the move, sending Block shares up more than 23% in after-hours trading as the market rewarded the aggressive cost reset. Even so, the stock remains roughly 80% below its pandemic-era peak, underscoring how far expectations have reset since the hiring boom.

Stablecoins already existed during that expansion, but they were largely viewed as crypto trading instruments rather than a credible payments threat.

Only recently, with regulatory clarity advancing through measures like the GENIUS Act and Circle’s IPO elevating stablecoins into the mainstream financial system, have dollar-backed tokens begun to look like a plausible alternative to the card-based rails that underpin Block’s business.

“Maybe Block laying off a ton of employees is a sign that AI is gonna destroy everything,” financial analyst Ben Carlson, director at Ritholtz Wealth Management, posted on X.

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“Or maybe the stock is down 80% from the highs and they overhired and AI is a convenient excuse,” he wrote.

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Catapult: Fixing Fair Launches – Smart Liquidity Research

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Catapult: Fixing Fair Launches - Smart Liquidity Research

Crypto loves the word “fair.”
Fair distribution. Fair pricing. Fair access.

But let’s be honest—most token launches are anything but.

Enter Catapult, a launchpad designed to eliminate early sell pressure, slash launch costs, and automate liquidity in a way that aligns creators, traders, and the protocol itself. It replaces chaotic day-zero market mechanics with something far more deliberate: algorithmic price action, volume-based graduation, and built-in revenue sharing.

This is not another “launch and pray” platform.
It’s a structured proving ground.

The Core Thesis: Volume Before Liquidity

Traditional launches start with liquidity.

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That’s the mistake.

Liquidity pools on day zero invite:

  • Snipers

  • MEV extraction

  • Presale dumps

  • Rugpull vectors

  • High overhead costs

Catapult flips the sequence:

Volume first. Liquidity later.

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Instead of throwing a token into an on-chain pool and hoping for the best, Catapult begins in a simulated high-fidelity environment called Turbo, where tokens can build mindshare and trading volume without ever touching a liquidity pool.

Only when a token proves demand does it graduate into a real, on-chain market via Hyper.

This single design decision changes everything.

Catapult Turbo: The Sandbox That Solves Day Zero

Catapult Turbo is a gamified trading environment that replaces traditional on-chain mechanics with a deterministic mathematical price engine.

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There is:

  • No order book

  • No initial LP

  • No slippage

  • No liquidity to drain

Instead, Turbo streams hyper-volatile, realistic price action generated by a mathematical engine. Traders buy and sell exactly like on a spot exchange—but execution is instant and slippage-free.

Every trade settles directly against the protocol vault.

Why This Matters

Because price movement is decoupled from liquidity:

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Creators simply choose a volatility tier, pay a flat fee, and let the session run.

The Turbo Mechanic: Controlled Chaos

Each Turbo session runs inside a fixed time window.

When creating a token, a creator selects a volatility mode that defines:

Type Speed Multiplier Lifetime Daily Sigma
Slow 6x 4 hours 0.5
Fast 24x 1 hour 1.0
Flash 96x 15 min 1.25
Crack 480x 3 min 1.5
Mayhem 1440x 1 min 1.25

All tiers use a daily drift of zero, ensuring a mathematically neutral starting point.

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The result?
Pure volatility. No bias.

Turbo is not gambling disguised as trading. It’s a structured, deterministic price evolution with unpredictable outcomes—verified through cryptographic commitment.

Path Generation & Commitment: Provably Untampered Markets

When a creator launches a Turbo session:

  1. The engine generates a random seed.

  2. It pre-calculates the entire price path.

  3. A secret salt is created.

  4. The seed, salt, and tick parameters are hashed.

  5. The hash is published before trading begins.

This hash becomes an immutable anchor.

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As the session unfolds, ticks stream to the UI.
The underlying seed and salt remain hidden.

When the session expires, the engine reveals everything.

Anyone can recompute the hash.
If it matches, the chart wasn’t altered.

The path is deterministic—but unknowable until complete.
Even the development team cannot alter it.

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That’s not “trust us.”
That’s mathematical finality.

Public vs Private Tokens: Controlled Attention

Catapult separates tokens into two categories:

Public Tokens

  • Indexed in the discovery feed

  • Generate a 0.5% fee on all trade volume

  • Fee paid directly to the creator

  • Subject to a global cap on concurrent sessions

This cap prevents fragmentation and keeps the trader’s attention dense.

Private Tokens

It’s a clever balance between open competition and personal experimentation.

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From Simulation to Reality

Turbo is not the endgame.

It’s the proving ground.

A Turbo token must hit a predefined volume milestone to graduate.

When that threshold is reached, the token transitions into the on-chain ecosystem.

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And here’s the key difference:

  • There are no presale allocations.

  • No early insiders waiting to dump.

  • No liquidity seeded by a fragile team wallet.

Instead:

The entire supply is minted directly into the pool.
Liquidity is sourced from the volume generated during Turbo.

The community that built the volume becomes the on-chain market.

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Graduation is handled through a time-windowed launch mechanic that prevents sniping and ensures equitable access.

This is what automated fair launches actually look like.

Catapult Hyper: Production-Grade Infrastructure

Once graduated, tokens move into Catapult Hyper, the on-chain infrastructure layer built on:

Hyperliquid provides the L1 trading environment.
LayerZero enables seamless multichain interoperability.

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Together, they eliminate liquidity fragmentation.

Multichain Without the Mess

Tokens launched via Hyper are deployed as OFTs (Omnichain Fungible Tokens).

This means:

  • Unified supply across chains

  • No risky third-party bridges

  • No wrapped fragmentation

  • Seamless multichain liquidity

The Hyper terminal becomes a discovery engine—connecting creators, traders, and the broader ecosystem in a compounding value loop.

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The Bonding Mechanism: Liquidity That Scales With Conviction

Hyper replaces static fundraising with a dynamic liquidity bootstrap model.

Capital requirements scale with market cap.

As mindshare grows, liquidity requirements grow.

Every launch follows strict 48-hour windows:

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Initial Phase
48 hours to hit the primary goal.

Reactivation
If missed, a second round opens with increased contribution requirements.

Retirement
Failure in the second round permanently ends the campaign.

No zombie tokens.
No endless relaunches.
Only velocity survives.

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Automated Liquidity & Real Yield

Once bonding completes:

  • Liquidity pools initialise automatically.

  • LP deployment is non-custodial.

  • No manual management required.

Rewards are funded by actual platform activity—trading volume and engagement—rather than inflationary emissions.

Participants earn a real yield derived from protocol usage.

That’s a subtle but important difference.

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Emission-based systems inflate.
Activity-based systems compound

Revenue Sharing: Incentives Aligned by Design

Catapult does not rely on extractive fee models.

Instead, it distributes value across four roles:

  • Traders

  • Creators

  • Referrers

  • Mindshare contributors

Rewards are epoch-based:

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The Mindshare system tracks social visibility using an exponential decay model:

user_score += twitter_scout_score × k^(n−1)
Where k = 0.8

Recent activity matters more.
Sustained contribution wins.

And only the Top 100 qualify for mindshare rewards.

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It’s competitive.
It’s measurable.
It’s performance-driven.

The Bigger Picture

Catapult is transitioning from a Solana-centric origin into a full multichain discovery terminal. A lightweight Hyper terminal is already live, enabling trading of graduated tokens ahead of the full LayerZero-native launchpad.

The architecture reflects a clear philosophy:

  • Simulate before you tokenise.

  • Prove demand before you deploy liquidity.

  • Align incentives before you scale.

Most launchpads optimise for speed.

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Catapult optimises for survivability.

And in crypto, survivability is alpha.

In Summary

The industry doesn’t need another place to launch tokens.

It needs infrastructure that filters noise, protects participants, and rewards real engagement.

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Catapult’s Turbo-to-Hyper pipeline does exactly that.

Volume becomes proof.
Graduation becomes merit.
Liquidity becomes earned.

That’s not hype.
That’s architecture.

CATAPULT OFFICIALS

Website | X(Twitter) | Telegram

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Strategy Eyes More Bitcoin as Saylor Teases Bigger Bag

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR

  • Michael Saylor hinted at more Bitcoin purchases as the asset traded near $67000.
  • Strategy currently holds 718722 BTC valued at about $48 billion.
  • The company bought its Bitcoin at an average price of around $76000.
  • Strategy faces an unrealized loss of about 12% on its holdings.
  • Saylor said Bitcoin allows $1 billion to move globally with ease.

Bitcoin traded near $67,000 as Michael Saylor signaled continued accumulation through a new social media post. He shared an image showing himself carrying a large orange bag covered with Bitcoin logos. He added the caption, “Maybe I need a bigger one,” and implied further purchases.

Bitcoin Holdings and Accumulation Strategy

Saylor posted the image on X as Bitcoin attempted to stabilize around $67,000. He used the visual to reinforce the strategy’s ongoing acquisition plan. The caption suggested that the company may expand its holdings further.

Strategy currently holds 718,722 BTC worth about $48 billion at current prices. The company acquired its holdings at an average price of $76,000. Therefore, Strategy holds an unrealized loss of roughly 12% on its position.

Despite the paper loss, Strategy reports an mNAV ratio near 1. The company also lists an adjusted enterprise value multiple of 1.256. These figures reflect the firm’s market valuation relative to its Bitcoin reserves.

Saylor has maintained a consistent position on long-term holding periods. He has stated that investors should prepare to hold Bitcoin for seven to ten years. He continues to frame corrections as part of the asset’s normal cycle.

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Strategy reports its Bitcoin transactions weekly when activity occurs. Market participants expect the next update in the coming days. The company has not disclosed any new purchases this week.

Strategy World 2026 and Market Performance

Strategy hosted Strategy World 2026 earlier this week. During the event, Saylor repeated his view that Bitcoin represents digital capital. He said, “Bitcoin’s value lies in its ability to move one billion dollars anywhere in the world.”

He contrasted Bitcoin transfers with traditional asset transfers. He said moving large sums in traditional systems involves greater complexity. He emphasized practical capital mobility rather than abstract narratives.

Saylor also addressed Bitcoin’s price volatility during the event. He stated that volatility limits large capital inflows. He argued that fluctuations, not structural flaws, remain the main challenge.

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Meanwhile, Strategy’s stock MSTR trades at $132.8. The shares have fallen 12.6% year-to-date in 2026. The stock remains 75.8% below its all-time high of $542.

Goldman Sachs has identified MSTR as the most shorted stock in the market. The company continues to tie its equity performance closely to Bitcoin holdings. Strategy plans to release further updates on Bitcoin activity next week.

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