U.S. oil producers are looking forward to less regulations on crude production under a Donald Trump presidency, meaning higher oil supply and consequently lower prices.

But it’s not that straightforward: Trump who was announced Wednesday as the winner of the 2024 election, has also vowed to put more sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan barrels, meaning the global market could become tighter, potentially boosting prices.

At the same time, the increased likelihood of trade wars under Trump could dampen global economic growth and slow oil demand. So the picture for the market’s longer-term outlook is, well, decidedly mixed.

“Conceptually, the impact of a potential second Trump term on oil prices is ambiguous, with some short-term downside risk to Iran oil supply … and thus upside price risk,” Goldman Sachs commodities analysts wrote in a research note Monday. “But medium-term downside risk to oil demand and thus oil prices from downside risk to global GDP from a potential escalation in trade tensions.”

Trump expressed his enthusiasm for increased U.S. oil production while giving a speech from the Republican campaign headquarters in Florida on Wednesday, just hours before his victory was confirmed. He made a reference to Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., the independent candidate who he said would become a part of his team.

“Bobby, stay away from the oil, stay away from the liquid gold!” Trump said in a joking tone. “We have more than Saudi Arabia and Russia.” Kennedy is known for his history of environmental activism.

U.S. oil and gas production hit record highs under the Biden administration, which gradually changed its approach to the industry despite campaigning on pledges of environmental stewardship.

U.S. crude futures — both West Texas Intermediate and international benchmark Brent crude — are currently trading in the $70 to $75 per barrel range, which is lower than what many oil producers seek to balance their costs and budgets amid slowed global demand for oil and growing supply.

But a further push to open drilling projects, putting more supply on the market, would lead to lower prices, thereby decreasing revenues for American producers, said Cole Smead, president and CEO of Smead Capital.

“If the Trump administration opens up federal leases for oil and gas, Federal lands would get 25% per barrel of revenues. You will have a lot of trouble finding an oil company that can make money at $52.50 per barrel with what they have left from a $70 barrel,” Smead said in emailed notes. “The only thing that will cause drill baby drill to happen is higher oil prices based on these margins.”

“Drill baby, drill is going to run into the energy vigilantes,” he added. “Now that equity investors in the energy business know what free cash flow looks like they won’t give it up. They will allow capital expenditures to go up over their dead body.”

The U.S. is the world’s largest oil producer, accounting for 22% of the global total, according to the Energy Information Administration, with Saudi Arabia next, producing 11%. The vast majority of U.S. crude is consumed within the country, which is also the world’s largest oil consumer.

The CEO of French oil major TotalEnergies told CNBC over the weekend that whoever wins the presidency should ensure that the U.S. doesn’t lose its energy advantage.

“U.S. energy has been unleashed … since the last two, three years, production of oil has never been so high,” in the country, Patrick Pouyanne told CNBC in Abu Dhabi.

“For me, today, the U.S. has a clear competitive advantage on energy compared to many [in the] rest of the world,” he said. “So I will be surprised to see whoever is elected lose the competitive advantage.”

Many in the market forecast lower crude prices due to Trump’s encouragement of domestic oil production and greater supply. Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at London-based Energy Aspects, sees it differently due to the specter of sanctions.

“Every hedge fund I’ve spoken to thinks bearish, because [Trump has] tended to tweet about low oil prices … I actually think it’s the opposite,” she said. “There’s an enormous amount of sanctioned barrels right now in the market, especially Iranian volumes.” Iran is currently producing 3.5 million barrels per day of crude or more, Sen said, with 1.8 million of those being exported, as sanctions and their enforcement loosened under the Biden administration.

“You could lose a million barrels per day of that … when Trump was in power, Iranian exports were just 400,000 barrels per day,” Sen said. “Now I’m not saying it’s going to go down all the way, because smuggling networks are bigger and better probably now, but you could lose a million there,” she said, adding that some Venezuelan barrels could go off the market as well.

For Smead, the outlook is bearish, as he predicts lower prices putting many producers — particularly those with higher production costs — in a less-than-ideal situation.

“The price of goods that are produced is the number one factor in America’s policies,” he said. “If you are not the low-cost producer, you should be scared.”

Donald Trump’s election victory on Wednesday sparked a palpable sense of dismay among the climate community, with two key architects of the landmark Paris Agreement warning that the result will make it harder to slash planet-heating greenhouse gas emissions.

Trump will defeat his Democratic rival Kamala Harris and return to the White House for a second four-year term, according to an NBC News projection.

It marks a historic and somewhat improbable comeback for one of the most polarizing figures in modern American politics.

The 78-year-old, who has called the climate crisis “one of the great scams,” has pledged to ramp-up fossil fuel production, pare back outgoing President Joe Biden’s emissions-limiting regulations and pull the country out of the Paris climate accord — again.

The 2015 Paris Agreement is a critically important framework designed to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. It aims to “limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels” over the long term.

Laurence Tubiana, a key architect of the Paris Agreement, said Trump’s election victory “is a setback for global climate action, but the Paris Agreement has proven resilient and is stronger than any single country’s policies.”

Tubiana, a French economist and diplomat who now serves as CEO of the European Climate Foundation, said the context today is “very different” to Trump’s first election victory in 2016.

“There is powerful economic momentum behind the global transition, which the US has led and gained from, but now risks forfeiting. The devastating toll of recent hurricanes was a grim reminder that all Americans are affected by worsening climate change,” Tubiana said.

“Responding to the demands of their citizens, cities and states across the US are taking bold action,” she added.

“Europe now has the responsibility and opportunity to step up and lead. By pushing forward with a fair and balanced transition, in close partnership with others, it can show that ambitious climate action protects people, strengthens economies, and builds resilience.”

As Donald Trump celebrated his prospective victory on Election Night at Mar-a-Lago, he was joined by a roster of high-profile supporters. Among them were Elon Musk, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick.

One thing those three people have in common: crypto.

It’s an industry that Trump talked little about until recently but has counted on for large amounts of cash for his campaign and related PACs. Getting that money required him to make big promises pertaining to the crypto industry.

Digital asset markets surged on Election Night, with bitcoin hitting a record of over $75,000, as his victory began looking likely. Crypto-linked stocks like Coinbase and MicroStrategy moved higher as well in after-hours trading Tuesday.

With a Republican-controlled Senate on the horizon, Trump has few roadblocks to putting in place a more pro-crypto platform. Here are some of the things he’s pledged to do:

In Nashville in July, Trump headlined the biggest bitcoin conference of the year. In his keynote address, the former president said that if he returned to the White House, he would ensure the federal government never sells off its bitcoin holdings. However, he stopped short of proposing a formal federal reserve of digital currency.

“For too long our government has violated the cardinal rule that every bitcoiner knows by heart: Never sell your bitcoin,” Trump said during his keynote speech.

Trump pledged to maintain the current level of bitcoin holdings that the U.S. has amassed from seizing assets from financial criminals.

“If I am elected, it will be the policy of my administration, United States of America, to keep 100% of all the bitcoin the U.S. government currently holds or acquires into the future,” he said.

Currently, the U.S. Marshals Service regularly auctions off bitcoin as well as other cryptocurrencies held in the country’s coffers such as ether and litecoin. These sales can sometimes trigger drops in crypto prices, like earlier this year when Germany began to liquidate hundreds of millions of dollars worth of bitcoin it had seized.

In public remarks for months, Trump has promised to unseat U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler.

“On day one, I will fire Gary Gensler,” Trump said, referencing the Joe Biden-appointed SEC chairman who has taken an aggressive approach to crypto regulation.

The president does not have the power to fire the SEC chair. Even if Trump were to appoint a new chairman, Gensler would remain a commissioner on the independent agency.

Gensler has brought more than 100 actions against crypto firms during his tenure at the helm of the commission. In multiple interviews, the SEC chair has said he believes much of the industry already belongs under its jurisdiction, and its lawsuits are simply bringing the sector under compliance.

Crypto firms argue that the recent legal battles haven’t given the regulatory clarity the industry has been seeking, and they instead reflect a gross overreach by the commission.

Trump also vowed to create a “bitcoin and crypto presidential advisory council.”

“The rules will be written by people who love your industry, not hate your industry,” he said.

Trump has expressly spoken out about his qualms with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who is widely viewed by the crypto community as an existential threat.

In June in Palm Beach, Florida, about a dozen bitcoin mining executives and experts sat down with Trump for an hour and a half in a small tea room at the Mar-a-Lago Club. The closed-door session marked the first time the former president took a meeting with the technologists securing the $1.5 trillion bitcoin network by running large banks of high-powered machines.

The intimate gathering brought together a coalition of some of the biggest private and public American miners in the business, including representatives from Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital Holdings, Terawulf, CleanSpark and Core Scientific.

Less than four hours after Trump’s roundtable wrapped, the former president took to social media to extol the virtues of the bitcoin mining business.

“Biden’s hatred of Bitcoin only helps China, Russia, and the Radical Communist Left. We want all the remaining Bitcoin to be MADE IN THE USA!!! It will help us be ENERGY DOMINANT!!!” Trump posted on Truth Social shortly after his meeting.

Since then, Trump has on multiple occasions reiterated the sentiment.

“If crypto is going to define the future, I want it to be mined, minted and made in the USA,” Trump declared in Nashville.

“We will be creating so much electricity that you’ll be saying, ‘Please, please, President, we don’t want any more electricity. We can’t stand it!’” he added.

In August, Trump said that, if elected, he would lower interest rates.

The Federal Reserve, which guides the country’s monetary policy, sets the benchmark rate. It also, by design, operates independently from the White House.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell in September decided to slash rates by a half point in its first easing campaign in four years.

Rate cuts and the easing of monetary policy historically dovetails with a surge in crypto prices since it makes it cheaper to borrow money.