Crypto World
Circle stock price target slashed as bank labels it ‘Switzerland of stablecoins’
Circle stock price popped by over 35% on Wednesday, its best day since going public, after publishing stronger revenue and USDC stablecoin growth than expected.
Summary
- Circle stock price soared after publishing strong financial results on Wednesday.
- Canaccord Genuity analysts maintained a bullish outlook for the stock.
- They slashed their CRCL stock target to $160, a 93% upside from the current level.
Circle Internet Group jumped to $83, its highest level since January 15, and 66% above its lowest level this year. This surge boosted its market capitalization to nearly $20 billion.
Canaccord Genuity slashes Circle stock forecast
Analysts at Canaccord Genuity, a firm with more than $110 billion in assets under management, maintained the bullish view on the company, even as they reduced the price target. They slashed their Circle stock forecast by 35% from $247 to $160.
In a note, the analysts praised Circle for another solid quarter in which its stablecoin holdings and revenue jumped. Its stablecoins in circulation rose by over 100% to $75 billion, a figure that Circle expects to have a CAGR of over 40%.
Canaccord Genuity also identified other potential catalysts. The most notable one is Circle Payment Network, which aims to disrupt how money moves globally.
Instead of using the expensive and time-consuming Swift network, banks and other fintech companies can use its stablecoin-powered platform. CPN costs are negligible, while transactions are completed in seconds. Its annualized volume has jumped to over $5.7 billion, with 55 institutions in the network.
Most notably, Circle is building Arc, its layer-1 network, which has attracted hundreds of developers. Canaccord believes that CPN will ultimately run on Arc, leading to higher revenues in the future.
Circle named the “Switzerland of stablecoins”
Additionally, Canaccord believes that Circle is the “Switzerland of Stablecoins” since stablecoins are its only business, and that USDC is the biggest GENIUS-Act compliant coin. As such, it can gain more adoption from companies seeking to leverage stablecoins to cut transaction costs. The report added:
“The launch of competitive stablecoins from eCommerce or financial services giants could be more problematic in terms of their widespread adoption. For example, would Amazon really want to accept WalMart’s stablecoin?”
Meanwhile, John Todaro, a top Needham analyst, slashed Circle’s target from $190 to $130, while William Blair reiterated its outperform rating on the stock. The consensus estimate among Wall Street analysts is $131, up by about 57% above the current level.
XRP Ledger Foundation has confirmed it has patched a critical vulnerability found in an yet-to-be-enabled amendment of Ripple’s XRP Ledger, averting a potentially major exploit.
On February 19, a security engineer at cybersecurity firm Cantina, Pranamya Keshkamat, and the Cantina AI security bot identified a “critical logic flaw” in the signature-validation logic of Ripple’s blockchain, XRP Ledger, reported the XRP Ledger Foundation on Thursday.
The vulnerability in the signature validation code batch amendment would have allowed an attacker to execute transactions from victim accounts, including draining funds, without ever having the victim’s private keys.
“The amendment was in its voting phase and had not been activated on mainnet; no funds were at risk,” stated the XRPLF.
Exploitation may have destabilized the ecosystem
In addition to the potential theft of funds and modification of the ledger state, the vulnerability could have “destabilized the ecosystem,” the XRPLF said.
“A successful large-scale exploit could have caused substantial loss of confidence in XRPL, with potentially significant disruption for the broader ecosystem.”
Related: Cybersecurity stocks fall after Anthropic unveils Claude Code Security
Cantina and Spearbit CEO Hari Mulackal said, “our autonomous bug hunter, Apex, found this critical bug.”
“Had this been exploited, it would have been the largest security hack by dollar value in the world, with nearly $80 billion at direct risk,” he added, possibly referring to XRP (XRP) market capitalization.
Emergence of AI cybersecurity scanners
The autonomous AI security tool developed by Cantina AI identified the vulnerability via “static analysis of the rippled codebase,” and submitted a disclosure report allowing the Ripple engineering teams to validate it and begin patching the code.
Validators were advised to vote against the amendment, and an emergency release (rippled 3.1.1) was published on Feb. 23 to block the amendment from activating, stated the XRPLF.
AI is increasingly being deployed for cybersecurity purposes to sniff out code bugs that may be overlooked by human eyes.
Anthropic released Claude Code Security, its AI cybersecurity vulnerability scanner, which it claims “can reason like a skilled security researcher” on Feb. 20, causing a slide in public IT security company shares.
Magazine: AI won’t make you rich but crypto games might, Axie founder steps down: Web3 Gamer
Editor’s note: Splunk’s new CISO Report highlights a shifting security landscape where CISOs are expanding AI governance and risk management as a core mandate. The study surveys 650 CISOs globally and underscores AI’s role in speeding threat detection, improving data correlation, and shaping security strategy—while leaders weigh social engineering risks and deployment pace in an era of rising threat sophistication. The findings emphasize that AI is a business enablement tool and that talent remains essential to translating technology into resilient outcomes.
Key points
- 95% cite threat actor sophistication as the greatest risk; 92% prioritize threat detection and response; 78% strengthen identity and access management; 68% invest in AI cybersecurity capabilities.
- 92% say AI enables reviewing more security events.
- 89% report improved data correlation with AI.
- 39% of CISOs who have partially or fully adopted agentic AI say it has increased their teams’ reporting speed by more than double.
- 82% believe agentic AI will increase the amount of data reviewed and speed up correlation and response.
Why this matters
AI is a strategic driver of resilience as CISOs take broader AI governance and risk duties while balancing speed and security. Talent, collaboration, and business-focused metrics will shape outcomes in an AI-enabled era.
What to watch next
- Adoption of agentic AI and its impact on detection speed and decision-making.
- Expansion of AI governance and DevSecOps responsibilities within security leadership.
- Ongoing concerns about social engineering and the need for robust threat models.
- Workforce burnout and data-sharing challenges as CISOs consolidate data and seek cross-department insights.
Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.
Splunk Report: Agentic AI Takes Center Stage in CISOs’ Path to Digital Resilience
- Nearly all CISOs Report They Are Now Responsible for AI Governance and Risk Management, Cite the Growing Sophistication of Threat Actor Capabilities as Their Greatest Risk
- Vast Majority Say AI Enables More Security Events to be Reviewed
SAN JOSE, Calif. – February 25, 2026 – Cisco today announced the release of Splunk’s annual report, The CISO Report: From Risk to Resilience in the AI Era, surveying 650 global Chief Information Security Officers (CISOs). The report highlights CISOs’ rapidly expanding role, their strategic approach to AI adoption, and a steadfast commitment to human talent as they confront an increasingly complex landscape.
“CISOs operate in the eye of the storm, at the center of constant transformation. Role responsibilities expand, threats evolve, and AI accelerates everything,” said Michael Fanning, CISO, Splunk. “This expanded mandate brings an exceptional level of pressure and personal accountability. We are not just managing technology. We are managing risk, talent, and the digital resilience that drives critical business outcomes.”
The AI Imperative
AI is recognized as a powerful business imperative and productivity powerhouse for security teams, including agentic AI. The survey highlights:
- 95% of CISOs cite the growing sophistication of threat actor capabilities as their greatest risk. Ninety-two percent of CISOs say that improving threat detection and response capabilities is a top priority, followed by strengthening identity and access management (78%), and investing in AI cybersecurity capabilities (68%).
- 92% of CISOs say AI enables their teams to review more security events.
- 89% report improved data correlation with AI.
- 39% of CISOs who have partially or fully adopted agentic AI strongly agree it has increased their teams’ reporting speed by more than double the rate of those who are still exploring (18%).
- 82% of CISOs believe agentic AI will increase the amount of data reviewed and 82% say it will increase correlation and response speeds.
While CISOs’ approach AI with cautious optimism, 86% fear agentic AI will increase the sophistication of social engineering attacks, and 82% worry it will increase deployment speed and complexity of persistence mechanisms. Ultimately, AI is seen as essential for combating advanced threats and delivering significant business advantages.
Expanded Mandate and Personal Stakes
CISOs are operating at the leading edge of digital transformation, with nearly four out of five reporting their role has become significantly more complex. More than three quarters of CISOs are now worried about personal liability for security incidents, a sharp jump from last year, when just over half expressed similar fears, underscoring the high stakes involved. Nearly all respondents now report that CISOs responsibilities include AI governance and risk management, with more than four out of five also overseeing secure software development (DevSecOps).
Talent Over Tech in Closing Gaps
Despite the rise of AI, CISOs are prioritizing human capital to address critical skills gaps. Their main strategies include upskilling current workforces, hiring new full-time employees, and engaging contractors. This reflects a belief that human intelligence and creativity remain security’s most powerful tools, especially for nuanced tasks like threat hunting.
Security is a Team Sport
Shared ownership is proving critical for stronger cybersecurity outcomes. Joint accountability drives the most value for key security initiatives (62%), security budget and funding (55%), and access to security-relevant data (49%), indicating that collaboration across the C-suite is a force multiplier for resilience.
Burnout and the Quest for Clarity
The report reveals a significant challenge in workforce retention, with nearly two-thirds of security teams experiencing moderate to significant burnout. Leading stressors include:
- High alert volumes (98%)
- False alerts (94%)
- Tool fatigue (79%)
To address these issues, CISOs are consolidating security data into a single view and using data-driven narratives to translate technical nuances into clear business imperatives for non-technical leadership. However, challenges to improving cross-departmental data sharing persist, such as:
- Data privacy concerns (91%)
- High storage costs (76%)
- Lack of shared data views (70%)
Reframing Security as a Business Enabler
CISOs are increasingly focused on translating cybersecurity’s value into clear business outcomes. Incident reduction, improved Mean Time to Detect (MTTD), and Mean Time to Respond (MTTR) are the top metrics used to communicate ROI to leadership. Collaboration with C-suite peers, especially on budgeting and key initiatives, is crucial for success.
The CISO Report highlights the transformation of the CISO role into a strategic leader. The report demonstrates how these executives are effectively navigating complex challenges by championing data-driven strategies, fostering human-centric leadership, and thoughtfully integrating AI. Through these approaches, CISOs are strengthening digital resilience and empowering their organizations to thrive in an ever-evolving threat landscape.
To download the 2026 CISO Report, please visit the Splunk website.
Methodology
Oxford Economics researchers surveyed 650 Chief Information Security Officers (CISOs) in July and August of 2025. Respondents resided in Australia, France, Germany, India, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and the United States. They represented nine industry groups: manufacturing, telecommunications, media and communications, financial services, public sector, energy and utilities, transportation and logistics, retail and consumer goods, healthcare and life sciences, and information services and technology.
About Cisco
Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) is the worldwide technology leader that is revolutionizing the way organizations connect and protect in the AI era. For more than 40 years, Cisco has securely connected the world. With its industry leading AI-powered solutions and services, Cisco enables its customers, partners and communities to unlock innovation, enhance productivity and strengthen digital resilience. With purpose at its core, Cisco remains committed to creating a more connected and inclusive future for all.
Cisco and the Cisco logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of Cisco and/or its affiliates in the U.S. and other countries. A listing of Cisco’s trademarks can be found at http://www.cisco.com/go/trademarks“>http://www.cisco.com/go/trademarks. Third-party trademarks mentioned are the property of their respective owners. The use of the word ‘partner’ does not imply a partnership relationship between Cisco and any other company.
Media Contact
Gabrielle Jasinski
Splunk LLC
Another week has ended, and it is also the end of the month, which means a bigger batch of Bitcoin and Ether options contracts are expiring while spot markets cool off again.
Around 115,500 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, Feb. 27, with a notional value of roughly $7.8 billion. This event is much larger than usual because it is the end of the month, so there could be a little volatility on spot markets.
Crypto markets have seen a little daylight with a mid-week lift, but total capitalization has remained the same as gains are starting to erode again, and zooming out shows they’re still in a downtrend.
Bitcoin Options Expiry
This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.76, meaning that there are more expiring calls (longs) than puts (shorts). Max pain is around $75,000, according to Coinglass, which is way above current spot prices, so many will be out of the money on expiry.
Open interest (OI), or the value or number of Bitcoin options contracts yet to expire, remains highest at $60,000 with $1.5 billion and $1.1 billion at $50,000 strike prices on Deribit as bearish bets increase. Total BTC options OI across all exchanges has been climbing this month and has reached $37 billion.
“In a continuous downtrend in the existing range, it’s not a surprise to see ongoing downside plays (protection and bearish) on BTC,” said Deribit this week.
“Call OI dominates across both assets, with BTC carrying the significantly larger notional weight into settlement.”
🚨 Options Expiry Alert 🚨
At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, over $8.8B in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit.$BTC: ~$7.8B notional | Put/Call: 0.76 | Max Pain: $75K $ETH: ~$961M notional | Put/Call: 0.77 | Max Pain: $2,200Call OI dominates across both assets, with BTC carrying… pic.twitter.com/5r8MjeQtJ9
— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) February 26, 2026
Derivatives provider Greeks Live said the expiration of options accounts for 20% of total open interest, totaling nearly $9 billion, with Bitcoin’s position share reaching a multi-year peak.
“The market remains firmly in bear territory. Currently, the crypto space lacks both fresh capital inflows and clear catalysts, with pessimistic narratives dominating social media. The market bottom likely remains elusive.”
In addition to today’s oversized batch of Bitcoin options, around 477,000 Ethereum contracts are also expiring, with a notional value of $963 million, max pain at $2,200, and a put/call ratio of 0.77. Total ETH options OI across all exchanges is around $6.6 billion. This brings the total notional value of crypto options expiries to around $9 billion.
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Spot Market Outlook
Markets are back in the red again today with total cap dropping 1.3% below $2.4 trillion. Bitcoin failed to hold above $68,000 and dipped back below $67,000 during early trading in Asia on Friday morning.
Ethereum is teetering around the $2,000 level and is likely to fall below it again as any hopes of a relief rally dwindle.
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CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.
The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 1999.16, down 1.4% (-28.56) since 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
None of the 20 assets are trading higher.
Leaders: ETH (-0.2%) and BNB (-0.8%).
Laggards: APT (-11.0%) and AAVE (-6.6%).
The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.
Crypto World
Why a Solana infrastructure firm is moving its servers to win the global crypto trading war
DoubleZero, a crypto infrastructure startup co-founded by former Solana Foundation executive Austin Federa, is rolling out a major update aimed at spreading Solana’s network more evenly around the world, and making it faster in the process.
On Mar. 9, the company will launch “Phase II” of its DoubleZero Delegation Program, redirecting 2.4 million SOL from its 13 million pool to validators operating in underrepresented regions such as São Paulo, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Tokyo. Each region will receive up to 600,000 SOL in additional delegated stake incentives.
DoubleZero runs a dedicated high-speed internet network that helps Solana’s computers talk to each other faster and more reliably. In 2025, the company behind the network raised $28 million at a $400 million valuation.
DoubleZero’s goal in rolling out the incentive is simple: reduce Solana’s growing geographic concentration in Europe and introduce “multicast functionality,” a data distribution method widely used in traditional finance.
Geographic cluster
One of the main goals of Federa is to reduce the geographic concentration of validators.
“One of the unintended consequences of blockchains getting faster is there’s more incentive to co-locate next to one another,” Federa said in an interview. He compared it to early high-frequency trading wars on Wall Street, when firms scrambled to place servers physically closer to the New York Stock Exchange to shave milliseconds off trades.
Read more: ‘Crypto’s Flash Boys’: A Q&A With Austin Federa on DoubleZero
Today, much of Solana’s staked tokens, which secure the network, sit in Central Europe — largely for historical and economic reasons. “There were a lot of really good, really cheap bare-metal data centers in Europe,” Federa said. “Solana was optimized for that kind of hosting early on, and the infrastructure just built up there.”
But geographic clustering creates trade-offs: If most validators are in Europe, users farther away may be at a disadvantage.
“If I’m sitting in South America trying to execute a trade on Solana, I can hit send first,” Federa said. “But someone who’s got a computer in Germany might actually win that trade.”
To address that imbalance, DoubleZero is offering 2.4 million SOL and aims to make it economically viable for validators to operate outside traditional hubs.
‘More dependable’
The next problem DoubleZero is trying to solve through the new initiative is data transmission latency.
The main barrier to expanding into those areas isn’t technical, Federa said — it’s economic. “Because you’re further away, everything takes longer to get there. It’s like Amazon Prime — in New York you get it same day. In Montana, it’s four or five days.”
DoubleZero says its private fiber network helps address connectivity issues, while the new delegation incentives aim to offset the economic penalty of being outside traditional hubs.
This is why, alongside the geographic push, DoubleZero is introducing the multicast functionality to Solana.
Federa compared it to watching the Super Bowl via satellite versus streaming. With satellite, “an infinite number of people can be watching that radio wave… and it’s no additional tax.” Streaming, by contrast, requires a separate data stream for each viewer.
Blockchain networks today largely operate like streaming services — sending duplicate data over and over. Multicast, he said, changes that.
“In a pre-multicast world, if I’m sending data to 1,000 nodes, I’m handing out 1,000 copies,” he said. “With multicast, I send one copy, and the network hardware replicates it closer to where it needs to go.”
That reduces bandwidth costs, improves fairness in how quickly participants receive data, and creates more room for future upgrades. It also makes blockchain infrastructure behave more like traditional exchanges, which rely heavily on multicast.
“Traditional finance isn’t just faster than blockchain — it’s more dependable,” Federa said. “If we can bring more determinism to blockchain networking, it makes it a much more attractive place for market makers and traders.”
Ultimately, DoubleZero is betting that financial incentives like this will help Solana’s infrastructure spread globally, moving it closer to functioning like a truly real-time market.
Read more: DoubleZero Mainnet Goes Live With 22% of Staked SOL on Board
TLDR
- Nvidia stock fell as much as 5% in early trading on February 26 despite strong fourth quarter results.
- The company reported fiscal Q4 revenue of $68.1 billion, marking a 73% increase year over year.
- Data Center revenue reached $62.3 billion, driven by continued demand for advanced chips.
- Non-GAAP earnings per share rose to $1.62, reflecting an 82% annual increase.
- Gaming and Automotive revenue came in below analyst expectations during the quarter.
Nvidia (NVDA) shares fell in early trading on February 26 despite strong quarterly results. The stock dropped as much as 5% after the company released its fiscal fourth quarter earnings. Traders shifted focus from headline growth to demand durability and capital spending trends.
Nvidia Stock Drops After Earnings Beat
Nvidia stock declined in early market activity even after the company beat revenue and profit estimates. The pullback followed a rally that had priced in strong data center demand. As a result, the earnings report failed to drive further upside momentum.
The company reported total revenue of $68.1 billion for fiscal Q4 2026, rising 73% year over year. Data Center revenue reached $62.3 billion, climbing 75% from the prior year. Non-GAAP earnings per share increased to $1.62, reflecting 82% annual growth.
However, Gaming revenue reached $3.73 billion and fell short of analyst expectations. Automotive revenue totaled $604 million and also missed consensus estimates. Consequently, investors questioned revenue concentration within the data center segment.
Management issued revenue guidance of $78.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, for fiscal Q1 2027. Wall Street had expected about $72.6 billion for the same period. Therefore, the outlook exceeded projections despite the stock decline.
CEO Jensen Huang said, “Demand for Blackwell remains strong across hyperscale customers.” He also confirmed that the company has started shipping samples of the Rubin platform. These updates reinforced continued product development and deployment.
Investors Focus on AI Spending Sustainability
Investors reacted with a sell-the-news move after recent gains in Nvidia stock. In recent weeks, Meta and Amazon signaled higher capital expenditure plans. Those updates had already supported expectations for strong chip demand.
As a result, the earnings beat did not materially alter the broader outlook. Traders shifted attention toward long-term returns on infrastructure investments. They questioned whether enterprise monetization would match hardware spending levels.
The data center division accounted for most of the company’s revenue growth. That concentration raised questions about balance across segments. Gaming and automotive performance failed to match the strength of data center sales.
Gross margin expanded to 75.2%, improving by 1.7% points year over year. The margin gain reflected pricing strength and product mix. However, supply constraints in memory components continued to affect certain segments.
As the U.S. Senate Banking Committee opened its routine hearing on oversight of the bank regulators on Thursday, a flurry of crypto topics had already dominated the conversation, including a significant stablecoin policy proposal from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
On the eve of the U.S. banking watchdogs’ testimony to lawmakers, the OCC issued a proposal to address most of its rulemaking requirements under the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, the stablecoin law signed last year. The package of policies would institute standards for U.S. stablecoin issuers, such as their reserve requirements, how the firms will maintain custody of assets, how customers will redeem their tokens and the process by which businesses will seek registration.
“The OCC has given thoughtful consideration to a proposed regulatory framework in which the stablecoin industry can flourish in a safe and sound manner,” said OCC chief Jonathan Gould in a statement. His agency noted that it still has some other rules on money-laundering and sanctions protections to work out with the wider Treasury Department.
While Gould and other regulators were set to testify before the senators, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman had already posted her testimony, which opened with discussion of the GENIUS Act and digital assets.
She said the Fed is “working with the other banking regulators to develop regulations that include capital and liquidity for stablecoin issuers as required by the GENIUS Act.”
Bowman, who leads banking regulation for the Fed, said it’s trying to “provide clarity regarding the treatment of digital assets to ensure that the banking system is well placed to support digital asset activities.” That includes, she said, “clarity on the permissibility of activities and willingness to provide regulatory feedback on proposed new use cases.”
The crypto-supporting sentiments from the OCC and Fed follow years in which the U.S. banking agencies maintained a more hesitant posture about this emerging corner of the financial sector, seeking to keep banks from leaping in without close approval from their government watchdogs.
But the banking panel’s ranking Democrat, Senator Elizabeth Warren, maintained her sharp criticism of that new friendliness on Thursday, saying she’s demanding answers about the rapid approval of Erebor Bank for chartering by the OCC, according to a letter sent to regulators.
The backers of that bank, which is to be a tech-focused institution that offers digital asset products and services, “have been major donors to President Donald Trump, Vice President Vance, and the GOP,” Warren noted.
“Erebor would serve as the financial hub for an interrelated set of Silicon Valley firms owned by these billionaires and their friends,” she wrote in the letter, noting that the lawyer who submitted the bank’s charter application was soon hired by the OCC as a senior deputy comptroller. “If my inquiry reveals that Erebor’s national bank charter was not granted in accordance with law and regulation, and instead represented a corrupt political favor to the President’s billionaire supporters in Silicon Valley, it would have to be terminated.”
At the hearing, Warren also called for Gould to share details about the application for a banking license tied to World Liberty Financial, the crypto firm for which Trump and his family maintain some ownership.
“Consistent with my statutory obligations, we will process that application as we process all applications, and I would note that the only political pressure I have felt from any part of the United States government, senator, is from you,” Gould said.
Warren, who had also noted reporting on WLFI’s potential ownership ties in the United Arab Emirates, said that the OCC should reject the application.
“As soon as you approve that application — and we all know you’re going to approve it — you go from being a cheerleader for President Trump to an accomplice in his corruption,” she said.
In further questioning on this point from another Democratic lawmaker, Gould said, “If you’re suggesting that the president would do anything inappropriate or illegal, then I reject that assertion.”
“Oh, I am suggesting that, actually” said Senator Chris Van Hollen.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Travis Hill also testified on Thursday. Under his watch, his agency was the first to begin advancing GENIUS Act proposals.
Senator Bernie Moreno, an Ohio Republican who has favored friendly crypto policies, asked him if the emerging stablecoin industry has posed any threat to bank deposits, as bankers have warned in their pushback against the industry’s Digital Asset Market Clarity Act legislation.
“Banks continue to be performing quite well,” Hill said, though he said he’s hesitant to jump into the legislative debate.
“The fear of deposit flight does not seem to be realized, whatsoever,” committee Chairman Tim Scott noted, citing recent increases in U.S. banking deposits.
UPDATE (February 26, 2026, 16:19 UTC): Adds hearing discussion on World Liberty Financial and stablecoins.
UPDATE (February 26, 2026, 16:34 UTC): Adds comment from Chairman Tim Scott on stablecoins’ effect on bank deposits.
UPDATE (February 26, 2026, 16:58 UTC): Adds further discussion on WLFI.
Wikipedia co-founder Jimmy Wales has delivered a stark forecast for Bitcoin, saying the pioneer crypto will likely survive as a network but is far from succeeding as money or a store of value.
The remark aligns with sentiment from multiple analysts, who highlight Bitcoin’s failure to hold as a hedge against currency debasement.
Wikipedia Co-Founder Is Confident About Bitcoin — But His 2050 Price Prediction Will Shock You
Wales warned that Bitcoin could decline to “hobbyist levels,” potentially falling below $10,000 in today’s dollars by 2050.
“People who think that Bitcoin is going to zero are likely mistaken,” Wales said. “The design is robust enough that it will continue to exist in perpetuity, barring some currently unforeseen breakdown in cryptography or a surprise 51% attack. Even then, a fork would carry it on. What it can do, though, is decline to a price consistent with hobbyist tinkering. Because it is a complete failure as a currency, as a store of value, etc., it isn’t going to become the dominant money of the future.”
Bitcoin was trading for $67,736 as of this writing. If Wales’ Bitcoin price prediction is any guide, then the pioneer crypto could fall by over 80% in the next 24 years.
The Wikipedia executive described Bitcoin as “speculative at best,” noting that adoption by AI systems is negligible.
He also pushed back against arguments that institutional accumulation or ETFs guarantee price stability.
“There’s very little reason to think increased accumulation is likely to happen… enthusiasts had best be prepared for the price to decline to hobbyist levels,” he wrote.
Even in scenarios where authoritarian governments push digital escape alternatives, Wales remains skeptical.
“Hard to use, volatile, not accepted as currency anywhere. It’s fine for hobbyists/enthusiasts, but I think gold, silver, jewelry, real estate, and fine art will remain dominant as safe-haven stores of value,” he added.
Analysts Highlight Bitcoin’s Ongoing Struggles
Jimmy Wales’ critique reflects a broader skepticism amid Bitcoin’s recent pullback. Some users argue that the king of crypto has repeatedly failed to fulfill its original promises.
“Bitcoin started as P2P cash. When BTC failed that mission, they pushed Lightning; when that failed, they pushed store of value. Now that’s failed too, and BTC is stuck in limbo,” one user remarked.
Others see Bitcoin as a means of speculation between gamblers, not a store of value. Meanwhile, SwanDesk’s Jacob Kinge warns that the Bitcoin bubble is over.
Even meme-driven posts alluding to Bitcoin’s imminent “death” have garnered significant engagement, highlighting the persistence of negative narratives.
Elsewhere, technical analysts also echo some of this caution, although estimates are not as extreme as Wikipedia’s $10,000 price target.
Nevertheless, not all voices are bearish. Some caution against overreacting to temporary price dips.
“They see volatility and immediately think Bitcoin has failed… These people are tourists,” commented CFA Rajat Soni.
Wales’ long-term perspective sits between these extremes. He sees Bitcoin as technically resilient but fundamentally limited in adoption, utility, and as a store of value.
The broader takeaway is that while Bitcoin may survive as a network for decades, its role as money, a safe haven, or a mainstream asset remains deeply uncertain.
Do you think investors and enthusiasts should prepare for a scenario in which the world’s first cryptocurrency persists primarily as a hobbyist pursuit rather than a cornerstone of global finance?
Give your feedback on BeInCrypto’s social media handles, including X (Twitter), LinkedIn, or follow our newsletters for more updates.
Crypto World
Polymarket bettors appear to have insider-traded on a market designed to catch insider traders
Can you insider-trade on an investigation into your own insider trading? Polymarket just turned that question from philosophical to practical.
Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT published findings Thursday morning naming Axiom, a crypto trading platform, as the company whose employees he believed had used non-public information to place profitable trades.
The investigation had been teased for days, and Polymarket had created a contract allowing users to bet on which company would be named, pulling in roughly $40 million in volume since Monday.
The problem is that someone clearly knew the answer before it dropped.
Lookonchain identified 12 wallets that bet heavily on Axiom before the reveal, netting a combined profit of over $1 million.
A separate analysis by Polysights, a data terminal that tracks suspicious activity on Polymarket’s public ledger, flagged five wallets that collectively wagered around $50,000 and walked away with $266,000.
More on-chain data analyzed by CoinDesk tells the full story. The largest Yes holder on the Axiom market, an account called predictorxyz, accumulated 477,415 shares at an average price of $0.14 and is now sitting on $411,000 in profit.
That’s roughly a 7x return on a bet placed before the answer was public. The second-largest holder, an anonymous wallet, bought 109,450 shares at $0.33. The concentration is notable. This wasn’t a broad market full of informed guesses. A handful of wallets dominated the Axiom side of the book.
For most of the week, another platform called Meteora had been the market’s frontrunner at over 50% odds, as CoinDesk reported.
The odds swung to Axiom on late Wednesday, which peaked at 46.2%. Anyone buying Axiom shares in the window between that denial and ZachXBT’s Thursday morning publication was either reading the room extremely well or already knew what was coming.
ZachXBT acknowledged on social media that he had contacted Axiom for comment and conducted several interviews before publishing, making a leak “probably inevitable.”
That means multiple people at the company knew the report was coming before it went live. Any of them could have placed bets directly or tipped someone who did.
Polymarket’s offshore platform doesn’t conduct identity checks, making attribution difficult without cooperation from the exchange itself.
Axiom said it was “shocked and disappointed” by the findings and would continue to investigate. It didn’t respond to questions about whether it was aware of any employees trading on the Polymarket wager.
The structural irony here is that the mechanism worked exactly as designed. It just happened to reward the people who were the subject of the investigation rather than the ones conducting it.
Bitcoin has found itself at a crossroads after a sustained period of selling pressure, with observers noting that the selling might be losing steam. Over the past three weeks, the flagship cryptocurrency has traded in a relatively narrow band between $60,000 and $70,000, with a brief dip below $67,000 during late-session trading on Thursday. Several analysts argue the market is transitioning from a pullback phase into a period of sideways consolidation rather than an immediate rebound. The coming weeks could reveal whether buyers regain control or if the market continues to digest recent liquidity shocks, leaving traders with a watchful stance as macro dynamics and liquidity conditions evolve.
Key takeaways
- Investor selling pressure appears to have exhausted itself, according to analyst Willy Woo, potentially opening a window for a month of sideways price action and a possible rebound that may still face resistance near the mid-$70,000s.
- Bitcoin has traded in a $60,000–$70,000 range for roughly three weeks, dipping briefly under $67,000 in late trading on Thursday, underscoring a broad consolidation phase.
- Analysts project the fourth quarter could mark a turning point away from the current bear trend, with momentum potentially reasserting in Q1 or Q2 2027 if macro conditions cooperate.
- Liquidity remains a limiting factor; both spot and futures markets show deterioration, making a rapid upside breakout less likely in the near term.
- RSI and on-chain observations point to exhaustion of selling pressure, with some strategists suggesting the bottoming process is underway even as markets stay range-bound for weeks to months.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Neutral
Price impact: Neutral. Easing selling pressure hints at a potential pause, but prices remain within a broad range without a clear breakout.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The market shows signs of exhaustion but lacks a decisive catalyst for a sustained rally.
Market context: The narrative sits within a broader crypto environment characterized by cautious risk sentiment and liquidity constraints. While some observers note improving spot ETF inflows, the overarching backdrop remains orderly rather than exuberant, keeping upside catalysts on a tight leash until macro conditions brighten or liquidity improves decisively.
Why it matters
The dynamics surrounding Bitcoin’s price action matter for a wide range of market participants—from retail traders to institutional allocators and developers building on top of the ecosystem. If the bear-phase momentum truly abates and a longer period of consolidation sets in, risk appetite could gradually stabilize, providing a platform for price discovery to occur at a steadier pace. The idea of a bottoming process matters because it reframes expectations for liquidity cycles and the timing of potential demand shocks that historically accompany macro shifts or policy developments.
Several credible voices emphasize that the timing of a new up-leg will hinge on both micro-market signals—like on-chain activity, liquidity dynamics, and ETF inflows—and the broader macro environment. Analysts caution that even with an easing of selling pressure, a sharp rally may require a confluence of favorable conditions, including renewed enthusiasm for risk assets, improved liquidity conditions, and potentially new catalysts from regulatory clarity or product launches. The consensus leans toward a multi-quarter horizon where patience and risk management become paramount for participants trying to navigate a crypto market that has shown a stubborn penchant for extended consolidation after big drawdowns.
“They are mostly done selling, and we are in the process of bottoming. We will set new all-time highs in the future. This is a classic crypto winter, and there will be a classic crypto spring.”
Market observers also point to macro-driven risk factors as a key determinant of the near-term trajectory. A dovish tilt in global liquidity or a swift improvement in risk-on sentiment could lift prices from key support levels, but until that shift materializes, the market may remain hostage to the same cooling dynamics that have dominated for months. Some strategists stress that a sustained rally is unlikely without a meaningful reacceleration in demand and a corresponding uptick in liquidity across spot and derivatives markets.
Beyond price action, a separate line of inquiry focuses on the depth of the current retracement relative to historical cycles. A number of veteran observers view the recent sell-off as a function of tactical rotations—investors trimming exposure to Bitcoin to redeploy capital into AI-related ventures and other growth areas—rather than a fundamental shift in the asset’s long-term case. The four-year cycle narrative, in particular, remains a talking point among serious market watchers who argue that the period ahead could see a transitional phase before renewed bullish momentum takes hold in subsequent quarters.
What to watch next
- Monitor liquidity metrics in both spot and futures markets for signs of a sustained pickup or further deterioration.
- Track spot ETF inflows and any official regulatory or product developments that might unlock additional demand channels for Bitcoin.
- Observe price tests around the $62,000–$65,000 support zone and the potential for a test of the $70,000 barrier as catalysts emerge.
- Watch macro risk sentiment and potential shifts in risk assets that could spell a broader appetite for crypto exposure.
- Keep an eye on Q4 and early 2027 macro narratives, including potential catalysts identified by market observers for a shift in momentum.
SOURCES & verification
- Willy Woo’s observation on market exhaustion via his X post: https://x.com/willywoo/status/2027202273525592298
- Bitcoin price context and recent range behavior noted in market reporting: https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price
- Bitrue research lead Andri Fauzan Adziima on RSI exhaustion and its implications for consolidation: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-adoption-is-booming-even-if-its-price-isn-t-river
- Matt Hougan (Bitwise) comments on selling pressure and the four-year cycle in market action: https://x.com/Matt_Hougan/status/2027107215036059861
- CoinEx analyst Jeff Ko on ETF inflows and the likelihood of prolonged consolidation: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bounces-66k-rumors-swirl-jane-street-selling-algorithm
Bitcoin eyes a pause in capitulation as consolidation takes hold
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has drifted in a sideways rhythm after a protracted run of selling, with market observers noting that the pace of declines has cooled enough to allow a broader pause. The asset’s price has hovered within a broad corridor from roughly $60,000 to $70,000 for several weeks, punctuated by a fleeting dip below the $67,000 mark during late-session trading. This combination of a paused sell-off and a lack of fresh demand has created an environment where price discovery proceeds in a largely horizontal fashion rather than a decisive move higher or lower.
Analysts have pointed to a convergence of factors that could underpin a more stable baseline for prices. One prominent view comes from Willy Woo, who suggested that the “bearish sell-down by investors seems to have exhausted,” providing the market with a chance to “consolidate sideways for maybe a month,” with a potential rebound toward the mid-$70,000s that would likely be rebuffed if momentum fails to strengthen. Woo’s assessment rests on a blend of on-chain indicators and market psychology, and it was echoed in a subsequent discussion about the broader liquidity backdrop facing the market. The current environment is characterized by limited liquidity in both spot and futures markets, which complicates the path to a sustained rally even as selling pressure wanes.
In other voices, Bitwise’s Matt Hougan argued that the recent depreciation of prices stems in part from a shift in investment priorities, as funds rotated into AI ventures or rebalanced across asset classes. He contended that the selling pressure may be close to exhausted, supported by a mix of four-year cycle dynamics and concerns about quantum computing, which have historically reframed risk appetite in crypto markets. Hougan’s commentary aligns with a chorus of analysts who view the current phase as a classic crypto winter, followed by the expectation of a crypto spring as sentiment improves and long-term holders slowly test new highs again.
Within the market’s current cadence, multiple observers have highlighted that the most convincing signal will be a tangible improvement in liquidity signals in both the spot and futures arenas. Some have noted that recent ETF inflows—specifically in the spot market—have offered a glimmer of support for buyers seeking a firmer footing, though they stop short of signaling a rapid, V-shaped recovery. Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, cautioned that a sharp recovery remains unlikely after a steep drawdown, underscoring the probability of a prolonged consolidation phase as investors reassess risk and sentiment adapts to evolving macro conditions. A recurring theme across analyses is the potential for a prolonged period of sideways movement, as sentiment repairs itself gradually in a market that has endured a series of shocks and regulatory debates.
Looking ahead, several market participants anticipate a convergence toward a more constructive regime in early 2027, particularly if macro environments improve and liquidity flows normalize. The forecast rests on the premise that a significant portion of the selling pressure has run its course and that the market will begin to price in a new cycle of demand now tempered by a more robust risk-appetite backdrop. Yet, even with the groundwork for a potential uptick, the path to all-time highs remains uncertain, and the near term is likely to be defined by tests of support in the $62,000–$65,000 zone and resistance around $70,000. The next phase will hinge on whether external catalysts—ranging from macro stimuli to ETF-driven liquidity—arrive in a manner that can sustain gains beyond a shallow relief rally.
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