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Trump and the lure of strongman leadership

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Donald Trump will go down in history as a truly historic president. That is not a moral judgment. It is simply an acknowledgment of the scale of his achievement in completely remaking American politics.

Like Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan, Trump has not merely won re-election. He has also brought about fundamental shifts in policy, ideology and the political landscape. Unfortunately, he has also brought about a profound change in political norms, by embracing conspiracy theories and refusing to accept that he lost the 2020 presidential election.

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The accusation that Trump is a threat to democracy turned out not to be the clinching argument that the Democrats imagined. That could be because Americans simply did not buy the argument. But there is also evidence that there is an appetite for strongman leadership in the US.

A Pew poll taken earlier this year showed that 32 per cent of Americans believe it would be a good idea to have a strong leader who can govern without being constrained by the courts or legislature. Another poll, taken last year, found 38 per cent of Americans and 48 per cent of Republicans thought the country needed a leader who is willing to “break some rules if that’s what it takes to set things right”. 

The political instincts that told Trump many Americans might want a strongman leader also emboldened him to break with decades of Republican and Reaganite orthodoxy on a range of issues — from free trade to the defence of democracy around the world. Until Trump came on the scene, it was conventional wisdom that protectionism was an electoral liability — championed only by maverick losers such as Pat Buchanan. Trump, who says tariff is his favourite word, demonstrated that Americans were ready to embrace protectionist policies. The proof of his success in reversing decades of orthodoxy is that the Biden administration did not scrap Trump’s tariffs.

Trump has also broken with the neoconservatives who worshipped the memory of Reagan and championed the promotion of democracy around the world. After decades of war in Afghanistan and Iraq this, too, proved to be a shrewd political call. Academic research has shown that parts of the country where military casualties were higher than average were significantly more likely to back Trump.

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During the Bush years, it was conventional wisdom that Republicans would lose Hispanic voters if they sounded too hostile to immigration. Trump has demonstrated that this is not true. 

Trump’s ideology is, in some respects, Reaganism in reverse. Whereas Reagan argued for free trade and confrontation with the Soviet Union, Trump stands for protectionism and accommodation with Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Reagan’s sunny optimism about the US contrasts with Trump’s bleak pessimism about US decline. And whereas Reagan was correct and courteous in his manners; Trump is vulgar and threatening.

The one Reaganite policy that Trump has consistently championed is a commitment to low taxes and deregulation. Perhaps not coincidentally, this is the element of Reaganism that is most highly prized by the tech and finance grandees who fund political campaigns. 

From his first declaration as a candidate in 2015, Trump defied the norms of political behaviour in ways that led to frequent erroneous predictions that his political career was doomed. He ridiculed and bullied fellow Republicans, mocked the disabled, made gross comments about women and attempted to overturn the result of a presidential election. But none of it was enough to finish him off. In fact, Trump’s taboo-smashing comments may have worked in his favour.

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Over the past eight years, Trump has taken over the Grand Old Party — as the Republicans like to style themselves — and turned it into his personal instrument. Those Republicans who could not stomach his policies or his style — people such as Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan and Liz Cheney — have left politics or been marginalised. Other Republicans who once opposed him have apologised. JD Vance, who will be Trump’s vice-president, once tweeted, “Fellow Christians, everyone is watching us when we apologise for this man. Lord help us.” He has since apologised — not to the Lord but to Trump. 

Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris will be taken as proof that his Maga agenda has been embraced not just by the Republican party but by the US as a whole. His followers are likely to demand rapid progress on the full slate of Maga policies — whether it is mass deportation of illegal immigrants, tax cuts or the purging of the “deep state”.

Yet while Trump’s political success is undeniable, it would be a mistake to over-interpret his mandate. There is currently a strong mood of anti-incumbency across the west as voters struggle with inflation, immigration and cultural change. That anti-incumbency mood has seen the Conservative party swept out of power in Britain, Emmanuel Macron lose his majority in France and now the collapse of the German government, This is also the third successive US presidential election in which the incumbent party has lost the vote.

Disillusioned American voters have now put their faith in a self-styled strongman leader. Over the next four years, they will discover whether Trump is the answer to their prayers — or a living nightmare.

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gideon.rachman@ft.com

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Travel

Best winter sun destinations that are less than six hours from the UK

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We've found the best winter sun that is both affordable, and nearby

SOMETIMES you just want to be somewhere hotter than the UK without having to hop on a long-haul flight.

Thankfully, there are some great destinations that aren’t too far away, and also won’t cost too much even if booking last minute.

We've found the best winter sun that is both affordable, and nearby

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We’ve found the best winter sun that is both affordable, and nearbyCredit: Alamy

Using our many years of holiday experience, the Sun Travel Team has revealed their favourite winter sun destinations that are affordable – and all less than six hours from the UK.

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Cape Verde – 5hr45 flight time

Cape Verde was my first foreign holiday after the dreaded 2021 winter lockdown. As soon as restrictions lifted, my then three-year-old, boyfriend and I jumped on a TUI plane for some much-needed sunshine.

At just under six hours, the flight time was probably the longest I’d
do with a pre-schooler but enough to find guaranteed winter sunshine – and Cape Verde pretty much guarantees sunshine.

Even in bleak midwinter, 25C is the average maximum temperature and the sun is strong, although you never get too hot because it’s also windy.

It’s also just one hour behind the UK, so there was no jet lag to contend with.

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We stayed at the all-inclusive Riu Palace Santa Maria, on the south
west coast of the island of Sal.

The nearby seaside town of Santa Maria had a strip of lively bars and
cafes and a number of seafood restaurants offering the catch of the
day, as well as a great beach bar where you could enjoy excellent
cocktails with your feet in the sand for just £2.50.

Attractions are fairly sparse on Sal, but there was more than enough
to keep us busy for a week.

We paddled with baby sharks, took a catamaran cruise and explored the island on dune buggies, but there were plenty of watersports for the more adventurous too.

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Caroline McGuire, Head of Travel

Cape Verde is perfect for a winter sun island break

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Cape Verde is perfect for a winter sun island break
It's also just one hour behind the UK, so there was no jet lag to contend with

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It’s also just one hour behind the UK, so there was no jet lag to contend withCredit: Alamy
The new winter sun destination 5 hours from UK & 27C in November – that TUI is launching ‘great value’ hols to this week

Marrakech – 3hr35 flight time

A place guaranteed to be warm in winter is Marrakech with temperatures above 20C – and it’s one of the most affordable to.

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A visit to Marrakech comes with beautiful riad hotels, lined with multicoloured tiles and ornate decor and even pools in the middle – and can be found for just £35 a night.

Sure, the Moroccan coastline might temp you away for a winter beach break.

But the bustling city is the best to go pre-Christmas to stock up one some cheap presents.

Go empty suitcased and you’ll find hand blown glass cups, embroidered cushions and leather handbags often spotted on the UK high street in places like Anthropology and Accessorize but for so much less.

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And with £16.49 flights thanks to easyJet, it’s cheaper than a train into London.

Kara Godfrey, Deputy Travel Editor

Marrakech is a great entry into Africa and one of the warmest to visit in winter without a long flight

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Marrakech is a great entry into Africa and one of the warmest to visit in winter without a long flight
It's bustling but cheap with some amazing pre-Christmas shopping

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It’s bustling but cheap with some amazing pre-Christmas shoppingCredit: Alamy

Lanzarote – 4hr flight time

I on my first winter sun holiday earlier this year and even though I’m late to the party, I’m a total convert after falling in love with Lanzarote.

I stepped off the plane in January and was met by a 20C heat – the ideal January pick me up, especially when flights are as little as £16.

And I was even happier when I went for a dip at the heated infinity pool at my hotel, the newly-opened Barcelo Playa Blanca.

The 180m-long main pool was also heated, which meant I could get my lengths in without getting chilly. 

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The temperature was perfect for excursions too with four-hour boat cruises around the island, stopping near Playa de Papagayo, a golden sandy beach before a dip in the dip in the water and fresh paella.

Topped off off with evening drinks on a balcony looking out towards Fuerteventura, I didn’t once have to take out my big winter coat – which was exactly the plan.

Hope Brotherton, Travel Reporter

Lanzarote is still warm enough for a UK escape

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Lanzarote is still warm enough for a UK escapeCredit: Alamy
The best way to catch some sun? An island boat trip

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The best way to catch some sun? An island boat trip

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How Scholz broke character. And the German coalition

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For years, German chancellor Olaf Scholz was blamed for his seeming inability to instil discipline in his warring cabinet, for his gnomic silence in the face of constant ministerial feuding.

This week, the sphinx finally spoke. And in a few words he brought down the government. 

Scholz appeared before reporters on Wednesday evening to announce he had sacked his finance minister Christian Lindner, in effect pulling the plug on his coalition. 

He described Lindner in ways that drew gasps of astonishment from those present: “selfish”, “irresponsible” and caring “only about the short-term survival of his own party”.

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The question on many people’s lips was — what took him so long?

“He should have issued Lindner an ultimatum a long time ago,” said Wolfgang Schroeder, a political scientist at Kassel University. “Either you work with us constructively or we go our separate ways.”

Scholz’s coalition was never a particularly stable construct. It was a political experiment — the first three-way coalition comprised of the chancellor’s Social Democrats (SPD), Lindner’s liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens — parties that were awkward bedfellows from the very start.

The alliance was unveiled to much fanfare after elections in late 2021 and immediately launched a progressive programme that marked a fresh start after the inertia of the Angela Merkel era.

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But its plans were quickly upended by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Scholz had predicted that Germany’s green transition would bring about a new “economic miracle”, with growth rates not seen since the boom years of the 1950s. Instead he found himself trying to figure out how to get Germany through the winter without Russian gas.

He and his ministers rose to the challenge, largely overcoming the energy crisis. They also reoriented German defence and foreign policy, in what Scholz dubbed a Zeitenwende, or turning point, agreeing massive supplies of weapons to Ukraine and a huge rearmament programme for the Bundeswehr. 

But the outward unity masked deep ideological fissures. The SPD wanted to shore up the welfare state, the Greens wanted action on climate change, and the FDP was obsessed with making sure Germany did not take on too much public debt.

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“Our many political differences were papered over by all the money we had available,” Lindner said on Thursday. “That allowed us to reconcile political ideas that were essentially incompatible.”

Last year, that whole construct came crashing down.

In a bombshell judgment in November 2023, Germany’s constitutional court struck down Scholz’s budget on the grounds that it had violated the “debt brake”, the country’s constitution-enshrined cap on new borrowing. That opened up a massive fiscal hole that the coalition parties have struggled to fill.

Suddenly, the three parties were squabbling publicly over what to do. The SPD and the Greens wanted to suspend the debt rule to allow the state to borrow more money for Ukraine, and invest in infrastructure. Lindner, as head of the FDP, resolutely resisted those demands.

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The tensions only increased as Germany’s economic prospects darkened. The country was grappling with falling output in its auto, chemicals and engineering industries. This autumn ministers downgraded their growth forecasts, admitting that Germany was now stuck in its first two-year recession since the start of the 2000s.

That played havoc with the government’s spending plans, forcing Lindner to lower his estimate for next year’s revenues. A €13.5bn hole opened up in the budget for next year. The bickering over how to bridge that gap became ever more feverish.

Lindner said on Thursday the parties had “always hoped” they could make progress through compromising with each other. But “the way the economy was and the way the public finances were heading, this limbo, this policy of the lowest common denominator, was no longer possible”.

Scholz tried for months to mediate between the feuding parties and steady the ship of state. On Wednesday he admitted how hard it had been to reach compromises. “Sometimes I went hard up against the limits of my political convictions,” he said.

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“It’s hard to bang the table in such a disparate coalition — you end up smashing a lot of porcelain,” said Ursula Münch, director of the Academy for Political Education in Tutzing, Bavaria. “But he could have been a bit clearer about what he wanted to achieve, and communicated it better.”

At a town-hall meeting in Berlin in September Scholz was assailed by a kindergarten teacher who accused ministers of behaving like a “bunch of kids”. With a look of helplessness the chancellor asked him what his remedy was, adding with a smile: “I’m asking for a friend.”

As the economy worsened and the squabbling intensified, the coalition parties’ approval ratings slumped. All three performed disastrously in elections in eastern Germany in September that saw strong gains for populist parties of the right and left. A poll from late last month showed the combined ratings of the SPD, Greens and FDP were now less than that of the opposition Christian Democratic Union — Merkel’s conservative party.

Scholz’s aides routinely defended his style of government. His was a “steady hand on the tiller”, he was imperturbable and level-headed, and flexible enough to find solutions when his cabinet colleagues fell out. 

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On Ukraine he had pursued what he himself called a “prudent” course, navigating between pacifists in his own party who craved a swift end to the war and the more gung-ho pro-Kyiv faction in the Greens and FDP that wanted a big increase in weapons supplies.

He has defended his consensual style. “There are some people, they’re amazing, they always say ‘onwards! Let’s man the barricades! Everyone after me!’” Scholz told a business meeting on Thursday morning, hours after sacking Lindner. “But the world isn’t like that, it’s never just one or two people leading. We all have to get along with each other.”

Robert Habeck, the Green economy minister, said on Thursday that anyone who thought the next coalition would be easier to manage was fooling themselves. “It’s not enough to have a parliamentary majority,” he told reporters. “You don’t have to be a clairvoyant to see that in future, even after the next election, it’s not automatically going to be easier.”

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However, others think Scholz could have done more to ensure cabinet unity. “He was like a moderator on a panel, not a chancellor, and he just let things slide,” said Schroeder. “He was too reactive, mainly focused on keeping the show on the road.”

After his dismissal, Lindner also criticised Scholz’s leadership style. The chancellor lacked “the strength to enable a fresh start for our country”, he said, and his proposals for economic reform were “dull, unambitious”.

Scholz, who will now go down in the annals as one of the shortest-serving chancellors in Germany’s postwar history, once said that “whoever wants leadership from me will get it”: it was a pledge his critics say he never fulfilled.

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SNG secures £100m AIB funding to boost affordable homes pipeline

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SNG secures £100m AIB funding to boost affordable homes pipeline

SNG aims to develop 25,000 affordable homes over the next decade.

The post SNG secures £100m AIB funding to boost affordable homes pipeline appeared first on Property Week.

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More capital is not the answer

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More capital is not the answer

An interview with Yale’s Steven Kelly

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Pair convicted over £1.5m crypto investment fraud

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Pair convicted over £1.5m crypto investment fraud

Two individuals have been convicted for their roles in a £1.5m investment fraud.

Raymondip Bedi, 35, and Patrick Mavanga, 40, pleaded guilty to fraud, money laundering and carrying out regulated activity without authorisation.

Mavanga also pleaded guilty to possession of false identification documents and perverting the course of justice.

The duo was part of a group that defrauded at least 65 investors out of £1,541,799.

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Between February 2017 and June 2019, the group cold-called consumers, directing them to a professional-looking website where they were offered high returns for fake investments in crypto.

The jury at Southwark Crown Court were unable to reach a verdict on a third defendant, and they will face a retrial in September 2025.

A fourth defendant, Rowena Bedi, was acquitted of money laundering. A further individual, Minas Filippidis, is wanted in relation to the same offences.

Bedi and Mavanga will be sentenced at a later date.

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The criminal proceeding was brought by the Financial Conduct Authority after the defendants were arrested last April.

The Financial Conduct Authority’s joint executive director of enforcement and market oversight, Steve Smart, said: “Bedi and Mavanga lured investors with promises of high returns on crypto investments, but their schemes were nothing but a callous scam.

“If you’re contacted out of the blue about an investment opportunity that sounds too good to be true, then it probably is. If you’re in any doubt – don’t invest.”

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Big Tech’s shift on Trump

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Big Tech’s shift on Trump

Outrage over his 2016 election victory has given way to wariness but also anticipation of opportunities

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