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UK braces for policy flashpoints with Trump’s US

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Sir Keir Starmer may have sent his “hearty” congratulations to Donald Trump on his victory in the US presidential election this week, but there are a number of policy areas where the UK government is poised to clash with the incoming Republican administration.

The prime minister will need to strike a balancing act: maintaining goodwill with the next White House to work together on thorny global issues, while ensuring he does not alienate domestic voters who largely take a dim view of the president-elect.

Whitehall insiders are also bracing for personality clashes, particularly with Elon Musk, who is tipped for a prominent role in Trump’s team and has revelled in using his social media platform to goad Starmer and criticise the UK.

Tariffs

Economists have warned Trump’s threat to impose 10-20 per cent tariffs on all imports into the US — and 60 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods — would hit UK trade and investment.

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A sector-by-sector analysis by the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy at Sussex University forecast Trump tariffs could cause a £22bn annual hit to UK exports, with key sectors such as fishing and petroleum facing sharp declines.

“Most UK industries . . . will face steep challenges if the US goes ahead with the proposed tariffs,” said UKTPO economist Nicolò Tamberi, though he added textiles “may see gains from trade shifts due to reduced Chinese competition in the US market”.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research said tariffs of 10 per cent would cut forecast GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points next year, and cause a 1.4 percentage point reduction in 2026.

Ahmet Kaya, principal economist at Niesr, said higher prices would hit lower-income households hardest. “Trump’s proposed tariffs would be yet another shock to the UK economy,” he added.

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The prospect has sent shockwaves through Whitehall. “This has the potential to be as problematic for us as Brexit,” said one British government figure.

Foreign and defence

Trump has pledged to “end wars”, a noble ambition that poses problems for a world currently enmeshed in multiple conflicts.

The UK’s steadfast support for Ukraine under successive Tory and Labour administrations could be severely undermined by the president-elect, who has indicated his desire for Kyiv to agree a swift deal with Moscow, triggering anxiety about the prospect of him pressing Ukraine to accept terms.

While Starmer has promised the UK will raise defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP — compared with 2.3 per cent currently — there are questions over whether European states could provide plug the military and financial gap if the US, which has provided a major proportion, pulls back.

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Trump’s position will also have a bearing on Israel’s conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and Hizbollah in Lebanon, although it remains to be seen how much leverage he will have over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The UK government has increasingly stepped up pressure on Israel to ease the humanitarian crisis in the region and to show restraint towards Iran to avoid spiralling conflict in the region.

Dr Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow at the Rusi think-tank, said: “If the election results indicate, at least partially, American voters’ repudiation of the Democratic party’s policies in Gaza and the failure to negotiate a ceasefire deal, it is difficult to see how a Trump administration will pivot to improve the situation.”

Nato

Trump has previously expressed ambivalence about Nato. Any move by him that cast doubt on Article 5 — the principle of collective defence that lies at its heart — could force Britain and Europe to shoulder far more of the burden of securing their own region, above and beyond current planned increases.

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While the prime minister would like to focus expenditure on vote-winning areas like the NHS and education, he may yet be forced to pour even more cash into Britain’s armed forces.

Strategic rivalry between the US and China is meanwhile likely to intensify under Trump, which could have consequences for London.

During his first term, Trump pressured Britain to fall into line on Beijing, such as banning technology manufactured by Chinese company Huawei from the UK’s 5G rollout.

Technology

Governments around the world are drawing up rules to govern how AI is developed and used, making the next few years key to the safe rollout of the rapidly-evolving technology.

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Trump has said he plans to scrap the Biden administration’s Executive Order on AI — which was tied closely to the UK’s AI Safety Summit last year.

The move would put the US on a collision course with the UK government on regulation, one UK-based technology lobbyist warned. “To me, the downsides are quite significant” for the UK’s role in tech, they added.

Big Tech companies are likely to be emboldened by Trump to fight against European-style regulation of the industry, such as the UK’s Online Safety act and new Digital Markets Unit regulator.

Policing of online activities is an area where Musk, Trump’s top tech industry ally, has already clashed with the UK. The X owner repeatedly likened the UK to the Soviet Union for its policing of offensive speech after far-right riots spread across the country in August.

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Climate

An avowed climate change sceptic, Trump promised while campaigning to increase drilling for fossil fuels in the US and vowed to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, Joe Biden’s flagship legislation to encourage investment in clean energy.

Labour ministers are privately aghast at Trump’s approach to climate change but some believe that Europe could become a relatively more attractive place for low-carbon investment in the coming months.

The Starmer government will pitch Britain as one of the most politically stable countries in the world with a more interventionist approach to green energy than the previous Tory administration.

Trump’s victory will also overshadow the UN COP29 climate talks in petrostate Azerbaijan next week, given the president-elect’s promise to withdraw from the 2015 Paris agreement — as he did during his first term in the White House.

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Starmer is attending the COP talks in Baku but other major political figures such as French President Emmanuel Macron and EU president Ursula von der Leyen had already dropped out even before the US election.

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Trump chooses Susie Wiles as White House chief of staff

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Trump chooses Susie Wiles as White House chief of staff

President-elect selects his 2024 campaign manager in first appointment to a major role in his administration

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Nissan to lay off thousands of workers as sales drop

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Nissan to lay off thousands of workers as sales drop

Nissan has said it will lay off thousands of workers as it slashes global production to tackle a drop in sales in China and the US.

The Japanese car making giant says it will cut 9,000 jobs around the world in a cost saving effort that will see its global production reduced by a fifth.

Nissan did not immediately respond to a request from BBC News for details on where the job cuts will be made.

The company employs more than 6,000 people at its manufacturing plant in Sunderland, North East England.

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The company also cut its operating profit forecasts for 2024 by 70%. It was the second time this year that the firm has lowered its outlook.

“These turnaround measures do not imply that the company is shrinking,” said Nissan’s chief executive Makoto Uchida.

“Nissan will restructure its business to become leaner and more resilient.”

Nissan’s shares were trading more than 6% lower on Friday morning in Tokyo.

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Growing competition in China has led to falling prices, which has left many foreign car makers there struggling to compete with local firms like BYD.

In November last year, Nissan and its partners announced a £2bn ($2.6bn) plan to build three electric car models at its Sunderland factory.

The firm said it will build electric Qashqai and Juke models at the plant alongside the next generation of the electric Leaf, which is already produced there.

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Oberoi to open hotel in London’s Mayfair

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Oberoi to open hotel in London’s Mayfair

The hotel will be housed within a restored listed building on the corner or Brook Street, as part of the wider South Molton development

Continue reading Oberoi to open hotel in London’s Mayfair at Business Traveller.

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Japan is having a moment but will it survive Trump?

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Within a few hours of Donald Trump securing his victory in the US, Japanese media was using the term matatora — the third Trump-related entry in Japan’s dictionary of escalating disquiet at his possible return.

The first word in the sequence, moshitora (“what if Trump”), was current in the latter months of 2023 and set a tone of background nervousness in government, corporate and market circles. The second, hobotora (“most likely Trump”), has been in widespread use this year, demanding more serious fretting around geopolitics, inflation and trade risk. Matatora (“Trump is back”) grants a general licence to gasp. 

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For some, though, the word has unleashed a bullish snort and an argument that — absent embroilment in regional conflict or some other unforeseen calamity — Japan may be better placed than almost any other developed market outside the US to flourish over the next few years. 

Tokyo stocks, declares Neil Newman, a strategist who has been covering Japan since the 1980s, have rarely been so primed for ignition. If anything, he says, the political paralysis to emerge from Japan’s messy general election last month, and the implied guarantee of no bad policymaking, should only make the market more attractive to big global funds.

It is a beguiling argument, given an extra sparkle by the various volatile knee-jerk market moves in Tokyo that accompanied Wednesday’s news: gains for exporters (on assumptions of an even weaker yen), defence industry stocks (Trump will demand allies spend more on their militaries), banks (inflation will rise and so will interest rates) and companies that stand to benefit from the (probably accelerated while Trump is in power) reshoring of Japan’s semiconductor industry.

Nicholas Smith, a strategist at CLSA, also sees the prospect of a six-month boost for Japan as animal spirits lift the financial sector. Global capital spending, frozen in the run-up to the US election, should now thaw quickly, favouring Japan.

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The longer-term case for Japanese equities under Trump, though, depends on two main lines of reasoning. The first is that Shanghai and Hong Kong’s loss will be Tokyo’s gain. US-China relations under the Biden administration have not been good, and there is reason to expect them to worsen under Trump. US pension funds have already come under pressure to stop or withdraw investment, while China-based dealmaking led by US private equity has all but fallen silent. Some US pension money may have returned to Hong Kong and China in recent months, but that could quickly reverse under Trump. Critically, the flows may well divert to Japan by default as the only developed market in Asia with the breadth and depth to absorb them. 

A second argument is that Japan’s recent descent into political stasis — the ruling Liberal Democratic party and its leader, Shigeru Ishiba, have yet to pull together a working government — is not, for the stock market, a big problem. Ishiba and his party are too weak to disturb the economy’s momentum, or unravel the progress on corporate governance reform and restructuring that appeals so strongly to foreign investors. 

There are clearly powerful counter-cases to all this, not least the chance that the Trump administration is associated with such elevated levels of geopolitical uncertainty that investors retreat to the sort of trading patterns that flee risk and tend to reduce exposure to Japan.

And though Japan may indeed be geared to global growth, a significant chunk of that is exposure to China. Even if Japanese companies can navigate their way through higher tariffs and intensified “pick-a-side” rhetoric from Washington, China itself could be far less rewarding than in the past.

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On the political front, the risks around Ishiba’s dismal gamble on a general election could prove much greater than Newman and other bulls suppose. The price paid for the prime minister’s weakness — an inability to communicate Japan’s importance to Trump, or present himself as likely to be around long enough to be worth Trump caring about — will be high.

Since early 2024, when the Nikkei 225 Average finally surpassed the record set in 1989, the brokers’ mantra has been that Japan is Back. A succession of big US and European long-only funds have come to Tokyo to check for themselves that the sales pitch holds true. A growing number appear to have returned convinced but without the sort of comfort levels needed for a really big reallocation to Japan. They had in any case been holding fire until after the US election. 

Trump is Back may ensure that Japan stays Back. It may also set Japan way, way back.

leo.lewis@ft.com

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FT Crossword: Number 17,889

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FT Crossword: Number 17,889

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How to switch to an underrated career in youth work as demand rapidly rises

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How to switch to an underrated career in youth work as demand rapidly rises

IT’S a service used by more than four million people nationally that radically changes lives, but youth work remains one of the UK’s most underrated careers.

The sector currently employs around 70,000 people in 8,500 organisations, helped by an army of 180,000 volunteers.

Harry Wills knows how important youth workers can be for young people because they gave him the support he needed as a teenager

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Harry Wills knows how important youth workers can be for young people because they gave him the support he needed as a teenagerCredit: Supplied

Taking place in youth clubs and other community settings, youth workers provide support, guidance, life and employability skills for young people aged eight to 19, and young adults up to the age of 25 with additional needs.

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Despite demand for youth work services rapidly rising — with two-thirds of organisations reporting more young people turning to them – most are struggling to attract new staff.

Budget cuts mean 4,500 jobs have been lost and 760 centres closed in the last ten years because of lack of local authority investment.

However, the new Government has pledged to rollout a “young futures programme”, which will need an influx of new workers to help young people.

This week is National Youth Work Week, which aims to raise awareness of the life-changing difference youth workers make to young people.

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Jamie Masraff is CEO of national youth charity OnSide, which builds multimillion-pound “youth zones” in disadvantaged areas.

He explains: “With so many young people facing anxiety, loneliness and isolation, youth workers have never been more important.

“Youth Work Week celebrates the crucial role youth workers play and highlights how rewarding a career it can be.”

Harry Wills knows how important youth workers can be for young people because they gave him the support he needed as a teenager.

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The 31-year-old from West London is now a manager at OnSide’s WEST Youth Zone, based in White City, London, which has more than 2,500 members.

Relocate to Spectacular Scots Island

Harry said: “When I was 13, I was getting in trouble at school and was placed in foster care. I felt overwhelmed and worried that my carers might stop looking after me.

“My local youth club was a safe, consistent space in my life and the youth workers were the trusted adults I needed.

“I tried a few different jobs until my social worker suggested a youth work apprenticeship.

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“On my first day in the job everything clicked into place. I love helping to build young people’s confidence, helping them on their way to finding out who they want to be, there’s nothing more rewarding.”

There are three main ways to become a youth worker.

Most people begin by volunteering with a local organisation.

To become a youth support worker, you need a Level 2 or 3 certificate, or a Diploma in Youth Work Practice.

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These qualifications are great for people already working in a youth setting.

To be a professional youth worker, you’ll need to study for a Level 6 qualification, including the newly launched Level 6 Youth Worker Apprenticeship.

As well as changing lives for the better, youth work can also provide a long-term career.

A recent study by the National Youth Agency, the national body for the profession in England, found that more than half of youth workers have worked in the sector for ten or more years, while 37 per cent are highly qualified professional youth workers.

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NYA boss Leigh Middleton said: “There have been some huge challenges, but we are beginning to see a step-change in how youth work is perceived and valued.”

Youth work remains one of the UK’s most underrated careers

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Youth work remains one of the UK’s most underrated careersCredit: Getty

Festive jobs galore

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NEED some extra cash for Christmas? There’s still time to bag a festive job.

Frasers Group –  owner of top brands including Sports Direct, Frasers, Flannels and Game –  is taking on 4,000 staff nationwide.

A spokesperson, said: “These seasonal retail roles offer an amazing opportunity to kickstart careers in retail.

“We seek high energy and customer service-obsessed people, and they are rewarded with a great workplace and benefits.”

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Find out more – and apply – at frasers.group/careers/jobs.

easyJet proves a force for good

IT’S Remembrance Sunday this week, when we honour the sacrifices made by our Armed Forces.

Around 20,000 people leave the forces each year, equipped with highly transferable skills.

easyJet has teamed up with ex-forces employment platform weServed to appoint veterans to the airline

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easyJet has teamed up with ex-forces employment platform weServed to appoint veterans to the airlineCredit: SWNS

To support these service leavers, easyJet has now teamed up with ex-forces employment platform weServed to hire morte veterans.

Hugh Andree, of weServed, said: “We’re proud to help create a pathway for UK veterans to explore new job opportunities, from aircraft engineers to cabin crew.”

The campaign is backed by former SAS hero, turned novelist, Andy McNab, who said: “We know it can be a challenge for veterans to find the right career fit.

“But easyJet understands the value of their skill sets and can support them with new and rewarding career journeys.

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Time for serious payback

A THIRD of people are seeking to switch to a career with more purpose, with helping others to improve their lives the most popular route.

Careers expert John Lees is working with the Probation Service to promote the role of Community Payback supervisors, who support offenders to improve their communities.

Careers expert John Lees gives his advice on switching to a career with more purpose

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Careers expert John Lees gives his advice on switching to a career with more purposeCredit: Supplied

Here are John’s tips to find a more purposeful career.

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1. Find your passion: Understanding what gets you out of bed in the morning is crucial if you’re looking for a career with more purpose.

2. Take some time to list things you’re passionate about and you can find a career that fits almost any passion.

3. Identify transferable skills: Your previous experience can be of use in a totally different industry. For example, if you’ve worked in customer service it is likely that you have the skills to diffuse situations and communicate with empathy.

4. Be creative: Your next role might not be obvious, and you’ll need to think creatively about how you can pair your passion with your career. If you love the outdoors, why not consider a role in Community Payback, where you’ll be able to spend time in nature while you give back to your community.

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5. Become your own biggest advocate: Be confident in selling yourself. Note three key skills you have and practise discussing these, then, look through the job description and pick out three requirements for the role that you have experience in. Being able to discuss these with confidence will give you a great chance in any interview.

6. Take your time: The biggest mistake people make when changing careers is making a rushed decision. Take time to consider your options and lean on people close to you who can act as a sounding board.

  • Search Community Payback jobs online to find out more

Job spot

PET specialist Jollyes is hiring sales assistants, supervisors and store managers nationwide.

See careers.jollyes.co.uk

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