Science & Environment
Vitol eyeing metals market as oil demand to peak in 10 years, CEO signals
Russell Hardy, chief executive officer of Vitol Services Ltd.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
SINGAPORE — Vitol is eyeing the metals market with global petroleum demand expected to peak in a decade, signaled Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol, the world’s largest independent energy trader.
“The petroleum, the oil business, we still think it will reach a peak at some point, about 10 years ahead from where we are today,” Hardy said on Thursday at the Financial Times Commodities Summit in Singapore.
In contrast to the eventual decline of the crude industry, metals business is going to witness a “great deal of growth through the electrification phase,” he added.
“So we quite like the idea of being involved in the bigger metal markets. And the three bigger metal markets are steel and iron ore, copper and aluminum,” he said.
In August, Vitol announced its acquisition of Noble Resources, a Hong Kong-based trader specializing in oil, coal and metallurgical coke, which is used to make iron. Vitol in April poached two metal traders from Mercuria, Reuters reported.
It’s a 10 year ambition, and I’m not going to put any pressure on ourselves to be in a particular place in three years, or five years.
Russell Hardy
CEO of Vitol
Energy trading giants, such as Gunvor and Mercuria, have in recent years been eyeing the metals space as they explore opportunities offered by the shift in favor of clean energy.
Critical minerals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium are key in the manufacturing of EV batteries, electric vehicles, power grids and solar panels — some of the components driving the energy transition ecosystem.
Copper in particular is widely expected to see an exponential demand and a potential shortage. Existing mines and projects under construction will meet only 80% of copper needs by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency.
The process of scaling a metals business to the same size as its energy arm would be a long and difficult process, acknowledged Hardy, adding that the metals market is a competitive one and the trading house will have to find its “edge” and “pathway.”
“It’s a 10 year ambition, and I’m not going to put any pressure on ourselves to be in a particular place in three years, or five years,” he said, while emphasizing that oil and gas remain “really important” business units for the trader.
Vitol saw a slew of bumper profits in recent years on the back of Europe’s energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
A senior official at COP29 climate change conference in Azerbaijan appears to have used his role to arrange a meeting to discuss potential fossil fuel deals, the BBC can report.
A secret recording shows the chief executive of Azerbaijan’s COP29 team, Elnur Soltanov, discussing “investment opportunities” in the state oil and gas company with a man posing as a potential investor.
“We have a lot of gas fields that are to be developed,” he says.
A former head of the UN body responsible for the climate talks told the BBC that Soltanov’s actions were “completely unacceptable” and a “betrayal” of the COP process.
ReutersAs well as being the chief executive of COP29, Soltanov is also the deputy energy minister of Azerbaijan and is on the board of Socar.
Azerbaijan’s COP29 team has not responded to a request for comment.
Oil and gas accounts for about half of Azerbaijan’s total economy and more than 90% of its exports, according to US figures.
COP29 will open in Baku on Monday and is the 29th annual UN climate summit, where governments discuss how to limit and prepare for climate change, and raise global ambition to tackle the issue.
However, this is the second year in a row the BBC has revealed alleged wrongdoing by the host government.
The BBC has been shown documents and secret video recordings made by the human rights organisation, Global Witness.
It is understood that one of its representatives approached the COP29 team posing as the head of a fictitious Hong Kong investment firm specialising in energy.
He said this company was interested in sponsoring the COP29 summit but wanted to discuss investment opportunities in Azerbaijan’s state energy firm, Socar, in return. An online meeting with Soltanov was arranged.
Getty ImagesDuring the meeting, Soltanov told the potential sponsor that the aim of the conference was “solving the climate crisis” and “transitioning away from hydrocarbons in a just, orderly and equitable manner”.
Anyone, he said, including oil and gas companies, “could come with solutions” because Azerbaijan’s “doors are open”.
However, he said he was open to discussions about deals too – including on oil and gas.
Initially, Soltanov suggested the potential sponsor might be interested in investing in some of the “green transitioning projects” Socar was involved in – but then spoke of opportunities related to Azerbaijan’s plans to increase gas production, including new pipeline infrastructure.
“There are a lot of joint ventures that could be established,” Soltanov says on the recording. “Socar is trading oil and gas all over the world, including in Asia.”
Soltanov then described natural gas as a “transitional fuel”, adding: “We will have a certain amount of oil and natural gas being produced, perhaps forever.”
The UN climate science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, acknowledges there will be a role for some oil and gas up to 2050 and beyond. However, it has been very clear that “developing… new oil and gas fields is incompatible with limiting warming to 1.5C”.
It also goes against the agreement the world made at the last global climate summit to transition away from fossil fuels.
Soltanov appeared eager to help get discussions going, telling the potential sponsor: “I would be happy to create a contact between your team and their team [Socar] so that they can start discussions.”
A couple of weeks later the fake Hong Kong investment company received an email – Socar wanted to follow up on the lead.
Attempting to do business deals as part of the COP process appears to be a serious breach of the standards of conduct expected of a COP official.
These events are supposed to be about reducing the world’s use of fossil fuels – the main driver of climate change – not selling more.
The standards are set by the UN body responsible for the climate negotiations, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The UN said it could not comment directly on our findings but remarked that “the same rigorous standards” are applied to whoever hosts the conference, and that those standards reflect “the importance of impartiality on the part of all presiding officers”.
Its code of conduct for COP officials states they are “expected to act without bias, prejudice, favouritism, caprice, self-interest, preference or deference, strictly based on sound, independent and fair judgement.
“They are also expected to ensure that personal views and convictions do not compromise or appear to compromise their role and functions as a UNFCCC officer.”
Getty ImagesChristiana Figueres, who oversaw the signing of the 2015 Paris agreement to limit global temperature rises to well below 2C, told the BBC that she was shocked anyone in the COP process would use their position to strike oil and gas deals.
She said such behaviour was “contrary and egregious” to the the purpose of COP and “a treason” to the process.
The BBC has also seen emails between the COP29 team and the fake investors.
In one chain, the team discusses a $600,000 (£462,000) sponsorship deal with a fake company in return for the Socar introduction and involvement in an event about “sustainable oil and gas investing” during COP29.
Officials offered five passes with full access to the summit and drafted a contract which initially required the firm to make some commitments to sustainability. Then it pushed back, one requirement was dropped and “corrections” were considered to another.
The BBC asked Azerbaijan’s COP29 team and Socar for comment. Neither responded to the requests.
The findings come a year after the BBC obtained leaked documents that revealed plans by the UAE to use its role as host of COP28 to strike oil and gas deals.
COP28 was the first time agreement was reached on the need to transition away from fossil fuels.
Affirm, the provider of buy now, pay later loans reported better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results.
Here’s how the company did, compared to analysts’ consensus estimates from LSEG.
- Loss per share: 31 cents adjusted vs. a loss of 35 cents expected
- Revenue: $698 million vs. $664 million expected
Affirm reported gross merchandise volume (GMV) of $7.6 billion, topping the average estimate of $7.28 billion, according to StreetAccount. GMV, a key metric that helps gauge the total value of transactions, increased by 35% from a year earlier.
Revenue in the fiscal first quarter rose 41% from $496.5 million a year earlier.
Revenue less transaction costs (RLTC) came in at $285 million, ahead of earlier guidance of $265 million to $280 million.
Affirm said it expects to achieve profitability on a GAAP basis in its fiscal fourth quarter of 2025. Last quarter, CEO Max Levchin said in a note to shareholders that the company had set a new goal of hitting operating profitability on a GAAP basis by the end of its fiscal year.
The company sees second-quarter revenue of between $770 million and $810 million, or $790 million in the middle of the range, versus the average estimate of $785 million, according to LSEG. Affirm is guiding to GMV in the range of $9.35 billion to $9.75 billion. Analysts polled by StreetAccount called for GMV of $9.48 billion.
Affirm shares were about flat for the year as Thursday’s close, but have been trending higher lately, up more than 70% since the end of August.
The company’s new relationship with Apple plus other partnerships with Amazon and Shopify are helping results. In June, Affirm and Apple announced plans for U.S. Apple Pay users on iPhones and iPads to be able to apply for loans directly through Affirm.
“Affirm’s growth story has continued, particularly as they add new strategic distribution partners,” Kevin Kennedy, an analyst at global research firm Third Bridge, said in an email.
Kennedy added that the quality of Affirm’s underwriting, specifically for higher-priced orders and interest-bearing BNPL purchases, sets the company apart from the growing list of competitors.
“The payments space is constantly facing commoditization risk, and BNPL, while nascent, is facing the same challenge,” he wrote. “However, large ticket interest bearing purchases, which are becoming more accessible through Affirm, are better protected” compared with offerings from peers, he added.
Square parent Block, which also reported earnings after the bell, acquired BNPL firm Afterpay for $29 billion in 2021.
Affirm’s quarterly earnings call starts at 5:00 P.M. eastern.
Block shares tumbled 11% in extended trading on Thursday after the company reported third-quarter revenue that trailed Wall Street expectations.
Here is how the company did, compared to analysts’ consensus estimates from LSEG.
- Earnings per share: 88 cents adjusted vs. 87 cents expected
- Revenue: $5.98 billion vs. $6.24 billion expected
Block, formerly known as Square, posted $2.25 billion in gross profit, up 19% from a year ago. Analysts tend to focus on gross profit as a more accurate measurement of the company’s core transactional businesses.
The company reported net income of $283.7 million, or 45 cents per share, after losing $88.7 million, or 15 cents a share, a year earlier.
The Cash App business, the company’s popular mobile payment platform and a significant contributor to overall profitability, reported $1.31 billion in gross profit, a 21% year-over-year jump. Block, run by Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, said its Cash App Card monthly active users increased 11% year over year to more than 24 million.
The company said gross profit for the fourth quarter will increase 14% to $2.31 billion.
Block’s third-quarter earnings call starts at 5 P.M. Eastern time.
Science & Environment
New DNA evidence at Pompeii reveals surprises about identities of Vesuvius eruption victims
When a volcanic eruption buried the ancient city of Pompeii, the last desperate moments of its citizens were preserved in stone for centuries.
Observers see stories in the plaster casts later made of their bodies, like a mother holding a child and two women embracing as they die.
But new DNA evidence suggests things were not as they seem — and these prevailing interpretations come from looking at the ancient world through modern eyes.
“We were able to disprove or challenge some of the previous narratives built upon how these individuals were kind of found in relation to each other,” said Alissa Mittnik of the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Germany. “It opens up different interpretations for who these people might have been.”
Mittnik and her colleagues discovered that the person thought to be a mother was actually a man unrelated to the child. And at least one of the two people locked in an embrace — long assumed to be sisters or a mother and daughter – was a man. Their research was published Thursday in the journal Current Biology.
The team, which also includes scientists from Harvard University and the University of Florence in Italy, relied on genetic material preserved for nearly two millennia. After Mount Vesuvius erupted and destroyed the Roman city in 79 A.D., bodies buried in mud and ash eventually decomposed, leaving spaces where they used to be. Casts were created from the voids in the late 1800s.
Researchers focused on 14 casts undergoing restoration, extracting DNA from the fragmented skeletal remains that mixed with them. They hoped to determine the sex, ancestry and genetic relationships between the victims.
There were several surprises in “the house of the golden bracelet,” the dwelling where the assumed mother and child were found. The adult wore an intricate piece of jewelry, for which the house was named, reinforcing the impression that the victim was a woman. Nearby were the bodies of another adult and child thought to be the rest of their nuclear family.
DNA evidence showed the four were male and not related to one another, clearly showing “the story that was long spun around these individuals” was wrong, Mittnik said.
Researchers also confirmed Pompeii citizens came from diverse backgrounds but mainly descended from eastern Mediterranean immigrants – underscoring a broad pattern of movement and cultural exchange in the Roman Empire. Pompeii is located about 150 miles (241 kilometers) from Rome.
The study builds upon research from 2022 when scientists sequenced the genome of a Pompeii victim for the first time and confirmed the possibility of retrieving ancient DNA from the human remains that still exist.
“They have a better overview of what’s happening in Pompeii because they analyzed different samples,” said Gabriele Scorrano of the University of Rome Tor Vergata, a co-author of that research who was not involved in the current study. “We actually had one genome, one sample, one shot.”
Though much remains to be learned, Scorrano said, such genetic brushstrokes are slowly painting a truer picture of how people lived in the distant past.
In August, archaeologists at Pompeii announced they had unearthed the remains of two more victims — a man and a woman discovered inside what was likely the bedroom of their home, where they’d become trapped as the rest of the structure filled with debris. The woman was found on the bed with a collection of gold, silver and bronze coins, as well as a pair of gold earrings, a pair of pearl earrings and other jewelry.
Earlier this year, three researchers won a $700,000 prize for using artificial intelligence to read a 2,000-year-old scroll that was scorched in the Vesuvius eruption.
The Herculaneum papyri consist of about 800 rolled-up Greek scrolls that were carbonized during the 79 CE volcanic eruption that buried the ancient Roman town, according to the organizers of the “Vesuvius Challenge.”
The scroll’s author was “probably Epicurean philosopher Philodemus,” writing “about music, food, and how to enjoy life’s pleasures,” wrote contest organizer Nat Friedman on social media.
The scrolls were found in a villa thought to be previously owned by Julius Caesar’s patrician father-in-law, whose mostly unexcavated property held a library that could contain thousands more manuscripts.
Caroline Ellison, former chief executive officer of Alameda Research LLC, arrives at court in New York, US, on Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Caroline Ellison, the star witness in the prosecution of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, reported to a low-security federal prison in Connecticut on Thursday, according to a spokesman for the Bureau of Prisons.
In September, Ellison was sentenced to two years in prison and ordered to forfeit $11 billion for her role in the massive fraud and conspiracy that doomed the cryptocurrency exchange once valued at $32 billion.
The federal Probation Department had recommended that Judge Lewis Kaplan sentence Ellison to three years of supervised release, with no time behind bars. Defense lawyers also had requested a punishment that didn’t include prison time.
While Kaplan praised Ellison for her extensive cooperation with prosecutors — which led to the conviction of Bankman-Fried — the judge said her criminal sentence needed to deter other potential bad actors from committing fraud.
Ellison ran Alameda Research, which was a sister hedge fund of FTX. She was also romantically involved with Bankman-Fried.
Alameda received much of the $8 billion in customer funds looted by Bankman-Fried from FTX. The stolen money was used for Alameda’s trading operation and other purposes.
Ellison reached a plea deal with prosecutors in December 2022, a month after FTX spiraled into bankruptcy. She pleaded guilty to conspiracy and financial fraud charges.
Kaplan called FTX the greatest financial fraud perpetrated in the history of the U.S., and told the court in Manhattan during the sentencing that a “literal get-out-of-jail-free card I can’t agree to.”
“I’ve seen a lot of cooperators over the years and I’ve never seen one quite like Miss Ellison,” said Kaplan, who also said he believed that Ellison was genuinely remorseful for her crimes and that her cooperation carried a steep price for her emotionally.
Late last month, Former FTX executive Nishad Singh was sentenced to time served and three years of supervised release, becoming the fourth ex-employee of the collapsed crypto exchange to be punished.
At her sentencing, Ellison read from a statement in a shaky voice while crying at times as she apologized to the people she had hurt and said she was deeply ashamed. She also said she was sorry for not being brave enough to walk away from FTX and Bankman-Fried.
Kaplan allowed Ellison to remain free on bail until surrendering to prison either on or after Nov. 7.
Bankman-Fried chose to stand trial and was convicted of all seven criminal fraud charges against him. He was sentenced to 25 years in prison in March and also was ordered to pay $11 billion in forfeiture by Kaplan.
Both Bankman-Fried and Ellison had faced the same statutory maximum sentence of about 110 years in prison for their crimes.
WATCH: FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried appeals fraud conviction
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