— America is continental. US GDP, unemployment and inflation data are particularly poor reflections on the economic experiences of households and businesses in different states and counties. For that, one must dig down for local and income-level statistics. — A high-growth, high-spending economy is not necessarily a sign of a healthy economy. Many Americans are spending a high proportion of their money on rent, healthcare, and food, not discretionary items — and fuelled by debt. — “Inflation falling, unemployment low=good” is too simplistic when people feel price-levels (cumulative inflation) and job security (opportunities and real wage growth) more palpably.
Frankly, none of this is new. Political fealty, culture wars, and disinformation may all play a part. But, for all those still unconvinced that people’s lived experience of the economy mattered as much as the exit polls and voxpops suggest, here are ten charts we’ve been monitoring all year.
1) A 17-22 per cent rise in the price level across swing states since January 2021 has not gone unnoticed:
2) The cheapest US products have seen the fastest increase in price level; implying lower-income households have faced even higher inflation (aka cheapflation):
3) The change in price level exceeds the change in wage level across most swing states too:
4) Debt delinquencies are also rising faster than the US average in key states:
5) A reminder of how Americans spend their money on services. The bulk of household spending is going towards non-discretionary items such as rent and healthcare:
6) Some workers have had more luck in the post-pandemic labour market than others. The visible relative performance can impact how individuals feel about whether the economy is working for them:
7) Unemployment may still be low, but those on the lowest incomes have grown most worried about losing their job since the start of the year:
8) Americans of all income levels seem to be hearing downbeat news concerning government economic policies. Outsiders may see US exceptionalism on their screens, but the realities on the ground are different, and the wealthier can shoulder it better:
9) All income groups feel worse off than they did when Biden started his term, although it is more stark for the bottom and middle thirds of earners:
10) And finally. The stock market is not the real economy. America’s asset-poor see minimal upside to soaring equity and house prices:
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
We’ve written a lot about the US election in recent days, so it’s time for some Anglocentric overcorrection.
To wit: Deutsche Bank has initiated a sell rating on Greggs, dragging shares in the UK’s vaunted sausage roll maker down 6.3 per cent to a nine-month intraday low:
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In a note published this morning, DB analysts Tim Barrett and Richard Stuber said they expect UK chancellor Rachel Reeves’ plans to raise the UK’s minimum hourly wage by 6.7 per cent to £12.21 — and increases to employer national insurance contributions — to cost Greggs about £45mn in 2025 and £50mn in 2026. That translates into a 23 per cent profit-before-tax downgrade for both years.
The pair trimmed their target price from £26 to £24, distinguishing themselves in so doing as the only analysts out of 15 tracked by Bloomberg who no longer think investors should buy or hold the stock.
How might Greggs respond to rising costs? Probably by raising prices and slashing the bonus they distribute to employees, team DB write:
Most obviously, Greggs could pass this additional cost on through price rises. With approximately £2bn of sales, this would require approximately 2.5% increase to offset this cost alone. We already had assumed 5% increase in company-managed LFL sales in FY25 and FY26. Price rises are easier to pass through if competitors either act ‘rationally’, ie all raise their prices, or if there is rising/higher general inflation.
On the former it is difficult to be confident others will price-up. In theory, Greggs should outperform (lower price point, greater scale etc) but we see this as upside risk rather than a base case. On the latter, the recent CPI prints and forecasts are actually slowing. We have seen this reflected in slowing quarterly LFLs. These slowed from +17.0% in 1Q23 to +5.5% in 3Q24 and growth was largely price driven. Management confirmed that during 2023 volume trends were relatively stable throughout the year.
Greggs distributes 10% of profits to employees, equivalent to £17.6m in FY23 (£19.6m total cost including additional NIC). This is equivalent to nearly half of the total impact and therefore management could decide to be less generous to employees.
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DB notes that Greggs had slipped 13 per cent from its September high in the lead up to its third-quarter trading update, when the food-to-go retailer announced rising sales, a flurry of new shop openings and — crucially — the rollout of a new pumpkin spice doughnut to compliment the return of its seasonal drinks range.
But neither pumpkin-flavoured pastries and lattes nor Greggs’s new all-day breakfast baguette and Mexican bean & spicy cheese flatbread seem to excite DB’s Tim and Rich. There’s no accounting for taste (which, to be fair, has worked in Greggs’s favour in the past).
IF YOU’VE got a pair of old trainers in the back of your wardrobe then now is the time to check how much they could be worth.
This year several pairs of trainers have been sold for record-breaking prices as so-called “sneaker heads” race to get their hands on the collectable shoes.
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Nike Air Max Plus 25th anniversary trainersCredit: Footlocker
A pair of rare Nike trainers fetched £68,937 on one luxury resale website.
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Meanwhile, a set of six Air Jordan trainers worn by Michael Jordan himself fetched £6.3million at auction in February.
While a pair you may have at home is unlikely to fetch that much, you could make several thousand pounds.
Trainers that have not been worn tend to increase in value the most, said Drew Haines, director of merchandising at trainer resale website StockX.
He said: “The resale value of coveted models tends to appreciate steadily over time when kept in a new and unworn condition with original packaging.
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“One thing to also remember is that a large number of people purchase trainers to wear rather than to sell.”
This means that there is a lower number of trainers in circulation which can be sold to collectors or investors.
The brand of trainers is also important as not all types increase in value at the same pace.
The top most searched for trainer brands this summer were Adidas, New Balance, Sketchers, Nike and Converse, according to eBay.
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If you have a pair from one of these brands then you could be in for a windfall.
Other lesser-known brands including On Running and HOKA have also become more popular, eBay said.
Keep an eye out for seasonal trends, which could increase how much you can sell a pair for.
For example, eBay saw running shoes gain popularity before marathon season.
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Searches on eBay globally for “mesh runners”, a type of jogging shoe, were up 75% year-on-year in February.
Most popular trainers sold in the UK
Here are the most popular trainers sold in the UK on StockX this year:
Air Jordan 1 Mid Light Smoke Grey – £99
Nike Air Force 1 Low White 07 – £68
Air Jordan 4 Retro Military Blue 2024 – £146
Nike Air Max Plus 25th Anniversary – £125
Air Jordan 4 Retro Bred Reimagined – £129
As more people want to buy this type of shoe, it could mean that you can put up your asking price.
What should I do if I have an expensive pair?
Regular maintenance is important to preserve the value of your rare shoes.
Invest in some specialised shoe cleaning products to keep them in top condition.
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It’s also important to store your shoes carefully to prevent them from deteriorating.
Proper storage and keeping them away from harsh weather conditions will preserve their quality and resale value.
Keep them in a cool, dry place and away from direct sunlight to help avoid any discolouration or material degradation.
You can store them in their original box or invest in clear shoes boxes to help them stay in mint condition.
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The shoe box itself is a large part of the resale value of a pair of trainers.
Never throw the box away and make sure that it does not get crumpled, damaged or discoloured.
How do I sell my trainers online?
First you should check to see how much similar pairs of trainers have sold for to assess how much yours could be worth.
Check several resale websites such as eBay, StockX, Depop and Vinted to see how much others have sold their pair for.
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EBay has a function which allows you to search for the item you want to sell and then filter the results by sold items.
How to look after a valuable pair
If you are planning on keeping your trainers as an investment then you need to take special care of them.
Here Drew Haines, director of merchandising at StockX, shares how to look after them:
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Do not wear them.
In order to resell them for their full value at a later date, the trainers need to remain new and unworn, along with their original packaging.
Use shrink wrap as it keeps your trainers in top condition by keeping the dust and humidity out.
Put the original box inside of a plastic box to make sure it doesn’t get damaged as this will affect any future resale price.
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Always store them in a cool, dark place so they’re not affected by sun damage.
This will allow you to view the price the item has previously sold for and get an understanding of how much other people listed it for.
StockX has a price guide which shows the full price and past sales of different models of shoe.
Once you know how much your shoes are worth you can choose to sell them online or by auction.
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If you sell your trainers through a resale website then you will need to create an account and set up a profile.
To do this you will need to go onto the website and enter a few basic details such as your name, mobile number and email.
Next you should take pictures of your trainers and their box.
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Nike Jordan 1 Mid Light Smoke GreyCredit: Footlocker
Make sure to take a photo of any damage or wear on the surface, sides and base of the shoe.
Go onto the manufacturer’s website and find a professional photo of the trainers.
This will help anyone interested in your shoes to visualise what they looked like when they were first bought.
Next upload your photos to the resale website and begin to build a listing for the shoes.
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You will need to write a description of the item and should include the make, model and name of the trainers.
If you have any proof of the authenticity of the trainers then you should say that this can be provided.
You can prove that your trainers are genuine with a receipt, bank or credit card statement.
You may also be asked to complete a few questions on the condition, size, style, colour and type of shoe.
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If you sell trainers using certain retail websites then they may need to authenticate the shoes before your buyer receives them.
For example, eBay has an authentication centre where items are physically inspected by experts before they are sent to the buyer or returned to a seller.
Items that have passed an authentication test will be marked with a blue tick.
How can I sell my trainers at auction?
If you have very valuable trainers then it could be worth selling them at auction to make sure you get as much as you can for them.
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Specialist auctioneers including Sotheby’s and London Auctions will sell your trainers by auction, marketplace or private sale.
You do not need to live near the auctioneer to sell with them.
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Nike Air Force 1 Low White 07 trainersCredit: Footlocker
To start the process contact the auctioneer and send them a photograph of your shoes.
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A specialist will then review your submission and you should be sent a free estimate of how much the trainers could be worth.
If you agree to go ahead then the auctioneer will be able to guide you through the process of selling your trainers.
They may sell them one client, list them online or include them in an upcoming auction.
Selling an item through an auctioneer may mean that you have to pay other fees such as storage, commission and buyer’s premium costs.
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Check how much the fees are before you agree to a sale.
Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.
Thousands of drivers working for ride-hailing and food delivery app Bolt have won a legal claim to be classed as workers in the UK rather than self-employed.
The ruling means drivers could be entitled to holiday pay and minimum wage, which lawyers said could lead to compensation worth more than £200m.
Bolt said it was reviewing its options, including grounds for appeal.
It pointed out that the findings of the Employment Tribunal were confined to drivers who were not on multiple ride-hailing apps.
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About 10,000 current and former Bolt drivers took legal action against the Estonian-headquartered firm at a London employment tribunal.
They argued they were formally workers under British law.
Bolt said it had “always supported” the “choice” of drivers “to remain self-employed independent contractors”.
But the tribunal found that “overwhelmingly, the power lies with Bolt”.
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“There is nothing in the relationship which demands, or even suggests, agency” on the part of the drivers, it said.
The tribunal added that “the supposed contract between the Bolt driver and the passenger is a fiction designed by Bolt – and in particular its lawyers – to defeat the argument that it has an employer/worker relationship with the driver”.
Money Marketing’s Weekly Must-Reads: Top 10 Stories
This week, Tony Wickenden explores tax planning strategies in the wake of the recent Budget, and Mattioli Woods expands with its acquisition of Stockport-based Cullen Wealth. Discover more highlights below:
In his post-Budget analysis, Tony Wickenden discusses recent tax changes affecting pensions relief, capital gains tax (CGT), and inheritance tax (IHT). The government has introduced a new £1m allowance for business and agricultural property, which applies to estate assets and lifetime transfers. This change, aimed at balancing tax revenue and taxpayer behaviour, is less severe than anticipated, suggesting a compromise approach. Wickenden also highlights the role of careful estate planning and professional advice in maximising reliefs and minimising potential IHT liabilities.
Mattioli Woods has acquired Stockport-based Cullen Wealth, enhancing its presence in the Northwest and strengthening its wealth management and employee benefits services. This acquisition aligns with Mattioli Woods’ focus on serving mass affluent clients, business owners, professionals, and corporates. Deputy CEO Michael Wright praised Cullen Wealth’s dedication to client service, seeing the acquisition as a strategic fit for Mattioli Woods’ growth. Founder Richard Cullen expressed confidence that the partnership will drive innovation and expand offerings for their clients.
In the Autumn Budget, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced an increase in employer National Insurance contributions, raising the rate by 1.2 percentage points to 15% from April 2025. The secondary threshold will be lowered to £5,000, while the Employment Allowance will double to £10,500 to aid small businesses. These changes aim to generate £25 billion annually. Employers are advised to review their benefits and consider salary sacrifice schemes to offset rising NIC costs and better manage expenses.
Close Brothers Asset Management (CBAM) has partnered with SEI to adopt the SEI Wealth Platform and SEI Data Cloud, aiming to strengthen its tech and data capabilities. This move supports CBAM’s strategic growth goals, enhancing services for wealth management professionals and clients. The partnership, chosen after a rigorous selection, also includes adopting Objectway’s Portfolio Management Solution and outsourcing order execution to Winterflood Business Services. SEI, which serves other major firms, welcomed CBAM’s commitment to integrated tech-driven expansion.
The Bank of England has cut the base rate by 0.25%, bringing it to 4.75%, with an 8:1 vote from its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Experts express mixed reactions, noting potential impacts on inflation and borrowing costs. Fidelity’s Ed Monk warns that while inflation is now below target, borrowing costs may not drop swiftly due to rising market interest rates. Hymans Robertson’s William Marshall and Hargreaves Lansdown’s Sarah Coles anticipate a cautious pace in future rate cuts due to inflation concerns.
Momodou Musa Touray, senior reporter, examines the need for a dedicated trade body for the platform sector in the UK with the newly launched Platforms Association. This group aims to unify the sector and address issues like regulatory compliance, platform requirements, and operational efficiencies. Despite support from several major platforms, the sector remains divided, with some preferring the UK Platform Group. The Platforms Association’s goal is to provide a unified voice, especially on regulatory matters, to support industry growth and stability.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced a rise in the stamp duty surcharge on second homes and investment properties from 3% to 5%, effective from 31 October 2024. The move is part of the Autumn Budget, aiming to raise revenue while supporting first-time homebuyers. Industry responses include concerns from mortgage professionals about the impact on the buy-to-let market, with Zoopla’s Richard Donnell predicting reduced demand. ARLA Propertymark urges the government to support landlords amid the growing shortage of private rented homes.
The 2024 Budget introduces a significant change to pensions, as unused pensions and death benefits will be subject to inheritance tax (IHT) from April 2027. This could shift the trend away from pension drawdown, which has been favoured for passing wealth, towards annuities. Annuities, particularly joint-life ones, offer secure, guaranteed income, and may become more appealing for those seeking to reduce pension fund values and provide peace of mind to surviving partners, helping to solve the “annuity puzzle” of low demand despite their efficiency. William Burrows runs the Annuity Project and is a financial adviser at Eadon & Co.
Lois Vallely reports on the ongoing feud between the Chartered Insurance Institute (CII) and the Personal Finance Society (PFS), which continues to stir controversy. Recently, the CII appointed several of its executives to the PFS board, raising questions about governance and transparency. This move follows a long history of attempts by the CII to exert control over the PFS and its member funds, leading some to call for the PFS to separate or form an independent body.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has announced a 40% business rates relief for the retail, hospitality, and leisure industries in 2025/26, capped at £110,000 per business. This is a reduction from the current 75% discount, which will expire in April 2025. The British Retail Consortium had called for a 20% cut, highlighting the sector’s disproportionate business tax burden. However, local councils depend heavily on business rates revenue, raising concerns about alternative funding to maintain local services. The relief is seen as a positive but insufficient solution.
K3 Advisory has completed a £2m annuity buy-in transaction with a pension scheme.
The deal, completed in July, secured the benefits of 16 pensioners and three deferred members.
The undisclosed pension scheme is within the mechanical and electrical industry.
Legal & General was the insurer to the scheme. Schroders, a strategic partner to K3, provided investment advisory services and Mills & Reeve acted as the Trustees’ legal advisors.
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K3 Advisory, founded in 2018, is a specialist independent bulk annuity and consolidator advisory business.
The business, backed by the Vestey Holdings Group, provides trustees and scheme sponsors with advice and brokering services to secure a smooth and effective transfer of liabilities to an insurer or consolidation vehicle.
K3 Advisory senior actuarial consultant, John Mayer, said: “This transaction is a great example of how swift and efficient these exercises can be if schemes are prepared, and industry relationships and collaborations work well.
“It’s always pleasing to be able to deliver security for members of small schemes and this scheme was a brilliant example of this. A fantastic result all round.”
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