Crypto World
Bitcoin Price Slump vs Gold Gains Highlights a Shifting Crypto Market
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and gold are diverging in 2026, as persistent liquidity dynamics and shifts in risk appetite reshape how each asset behaves. Gold has surged roughly 153% since the start of 2024, while Bitcoin has retraced about 30% over the same period. Analysts attribute the split to a steady expansion of global money supply, a cooling appetite for high-beta tech equities, and a drift of capital from exchanges into self-custody. Taken together, these forces help explain why gold strengthens in a liquidity-driven environment while Bitcoin struggles to keep pace in a bear-market backdrop for risk assets.
Key takeaways
- Gold has outperformed Bitcoin since early 2024, rising about 153% versus a roughly 30% decline for BTC, signaling divergent responses to the same macro backdrop.
- Longer-term BTC trends have tracked money-supply growth (M2), but the strongest rallies historically occurred when liquidity growth aligned with surges in software and SaaS equities, highlighting the role of speculative appetite in crypto cycles.
- Tokenized exposure to hard assets is gaining traction: Binance launched 24/7 gold futures trading on January 5, with cumulative volumes approaching $35 billion and peak daily volume over $4 billion, underscoring demand for crypto-native hedges.
- Exchange liquidity has shifted lower as traders move assets into self-custody, with Binance’s combined BTC, ETH, XRP and major stablecoins portfolio value dipping to around $102 billion — the lowest since April 2025, reflecting a cautious operating environment.
- Historical patterns show that BTC’s price moves amplify or dampen with shifts in speculative sentiment, suggesting that today’s liquidity abundance coexists with a bear phase for risk assets, and a concurrent rise in gold demand as a hedge.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH, $XRP
Sentiment: Bearish
Price impact: Negative. Bitcoin’s price trajectory has lagged gold’s gains amid a cautious, risk-off regime and thinning exchange liquidity.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. In a liquidity-driven regime where hard assets and tokenized hedges attract capital, patient positioning and prudent risk controls are advisable.
Market context: The 2026 environment features ample liquidity but mixed risk appetite, with money-supply growth supporting long-term upside while speculative fervor in tech equities drives volatile cycles. Tokenized gold activity on crypto venues reflects a broader search for hedges within digital assets, even as exchange balances shrink and self-custody gains traction.
Why it matters
The widening gap between gold and Bitcoin highlights a foundational question for crypto markets: where does investor value come from when macro liquidity remains supportive but risk sentiment downgrades exposure to high-beta assets? Gold’s performance, closely tied to money-supply expansion, reinforces gold’s status as a traditional hedge, even as investors explore novel ways to gain exposure to hard assets via crypto platforms.
For market participants, the move toward tokenized hedges signals a potential shift in cross-asset strategy. The crypto ecosystem is evolving from a pure beta bet on technology equities to a blended approach that seeks protection in assets with tangible, real-world demand. This may affect how liquidity pools behave in stress episodes and could influence choices around custody, settlement, and the role of exchanges in the overall ecosystem.
From a risk-management perspective, the decline in on-exchange reserves, coupled with continued demand for gold-linked products, suggests traders are recalibrating where and how they store value during periods of volatility. The dynamic also raises questions about regulatory intent and oversight as tokenized hedges gain traction, potentially shaping future liquidity provisions and market structure in crypto markets.
What to watch next
- Monitor January 2026 and subsequent data on gold futures trading on crypto venues, including cumulative volume and daily spikes, to assess whether tokenized gold remains a durable hedge amid ongoing volatility.
- Track Binance’s reserve metrics for BTC, ETH, XRP and other major assets to gauge shifts in exchange liquidity versus self-custody adoption, and what that implies for market depth.
- Follow updates to the broader money-supply indicators (M2) and related macro signals, as changes here are linked to long-horizon crypto trends and the relative performance of hard assets vs. digital assets.
- Watch commentary from macro strategists and market historians about the BTC–gold divergence, including any fresh empirical tests of liquidity-driven models and the role of speculative cycles in crypto markets.
- Observe any forthcoming data on tokenized asset products and exchange-venue innovations that could alter hedging strategies and liquidity channels within the crypto ecosystem.
Sources & verification
- Jurrien Timmer’s analysis on the relationship between gold, Bitcoin, and money-supply growth (as cited via his X post).
- CryptoQuant data on Binance gold futures volumes and the growth of tokenized gold trading activity.
- CryptoQuant data detailing Binance’s reserves for BTC, ETH, XRP and other major assets, including the trend to lower portfolio value.
- Historical references to the relationship between software/SaaS stock performance and BTC rallies in 2017–2018 and 2020–2021, contrasted with 2022 tech declines.
Liquidity, speculation, and the bitcoin-versus-gold dynamic in 2026
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and gold are presenting divergent profiles as 2026 unfolds. Gold has surged about 153% since the start of 2024, while BTC has slipped roughly 30% over the same period. Analysts attribute the split to a widening global money supply, a cooling appetite for high-growth tech equities, and a drift of capital from exchanges into self-custody. Taken together, these forces help explain why gold strengthens in a liquidity-driven environment while Bitcoin struggles to keep pace in a bear-market backdrop for risk assets.
In a post on X, Fidelity director of global macro Jurrien Timmer highlighted gold as a classic hard-money asset that has tracked money-supply expansion closely, with pullbacks that attract short-term buyers. He noted that Bitcoin’s behavior follows broader liquidity trends over time, yet the strongest rallies tend to align with periods when liquidity growth is paired with rising software and SaaS equities — proxies for speculative appetite. The historical record shows that during 2017–2018 and again in 2020–2021, software stocks climbed roughly 58% and 93% year over year, and Bitcoin benefited from those liquidity-driven surges. Conversely, 2022 saw a sharp decline in software valuations and a deep dip for BTC even with money-supply levels remaining elevated.
These patterns imply that money-supply growth undergirds Bitcoin’s long-term trend, while the direction and speed of price moves are amplified by the degree of speculative fervor in technology equities. Timmer argues that today, liquidity remains ample while investor sentiment toward risk assets has shifted into a bear phase, helping gold and base-money exposure rally while BTC lags.
To illustrate the dynamic with on-chain behavior, data from CryptoQuant shows that Binance’s total portfolio value across BTC, ETH, XRP, and major ERC20 and TRC20 stablecoins has declined to roughly $102 billion — the lowest since April 2025, down from about $140 billion in August 2025. The drop, about $38 billion, is attributed to a combination of lower asset prices and user withdrawals into self-custody during periods of bearish volatility. The effect on liquidity is nuanced: fewer assets sit on exchanges at a moment when traders typically rely on vaults and cold storage to insulate positions. The practical takeaway is that near-term liquidity on centralized venues appears to be thinning, potentially widening bid-ask spreads and complicating quick entry or exit for large players.
Meanwhile, a notable shift in demand within crypto-native venues has materialized around tokenized gold. On January 5, Binance launched 24/7 gold futures trading, a move that CryptoQuant data shows has already amassed a cumulative volume near $35 billion, with more than $4 billion traded on the most active day. Weekly volumes hover around $4.7 billion, underscoring a growing interest in instrumenting traditional hedges inside crypto markets. The development follows a two-day gold correction that rallied the demand for tokenized exposure to hard assets. As the ecosystem experiments with cross-asset hedges, investors are watching whether tokenized gold can serve as a liquidity bridge in periods of market stress.
The net takeaway from these shifts is a portrait of an asset-class tug-of-war: Bitcoin retains exposure to the expansion and contraction of the money spigot, but its price action is increasingly contingent on the risk-on or risk-off temperament of the broader market. With speculative sentiment still meandering in the bear camp, gold’s safe-haven appeal, and the allure of hard-asset exposure within crypto venues, are likely to remain central themes for 2026.
The taxman cometh. In February, the tax authorities of four countries began to reconsider how they tax crypto.
In the US, the number of crypto ATMs hit nearly 40,000, returning to 2021 levels of interest in crypto kiosks. The number of installations had dipped significantly after the crypto crash of 2022.
Japan’s inflation dipped below 2% in February, less than in the United States. Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett said earlier this year that dollar investments were looking less attractive as the yen is providing a more stable currency.
Bitcoin (BTC) was stuck below $70,000 this month. Many crypto observers have noted that US tariffs are putting pressure on the asset. US President Donald Trump’s new 10% levy has done nothing to alleviate this.
Here’s February by the numbers:
Four countries consider changes to crypto tax laws in February
The Netherlands’ House of Representatives, the lower house of the country’s parliament, advanced a tax proposal on Feb. 12. The draft law would introduce a 36% capital gains tax on unrealized gains on savings and liquid investments, including crypto.
Critics say the tax, which is supported by 93 of the 150 representatives, will chase money out of the country.
Detractors appear to have won out. The new Dutch cabinet said that it will reconsider the measure.
“There is a lot of criticism of the Actual Return Act. We are not deaf to that … The bill needs to be amended. The Minister and State Secretary will discuss this with the Senate and parliament,” a cabinet spokesperson said.
In Israel, the Israeli Crypto Blockchain & Web 3.0 Companies Forum launched a lobbying effort to reform the country’s crypto tax laws. Forum leader Nir Hirshmann-Rub said there is broad public support to relax laws on stablecoins and tokenization, as well as simplify compliance.
He noted that many Israelis already own and invest in crypto. “More than 25% of the public already has had crypto dealings in the last five years and more than 20% currently hold digital assets,” he said.
In Hong Kong, Financial Secretary Paul Chan said that the special administrative region is tweaking its tax laws. He said the Inland Revenue Ordinance will implement the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF).
The CARF is a global tax exchange standard for crypto that aims to tackle tax evasion. It requires crypto service providers to report on client activity.
Vietnam has proposed a crypto transaction tax. Crypto transfers and trading would be exempt from the usual value-added tax. But transferring crypto assets through licensed service providers would incur a 0.1% personal income tax on the transaction value.
In India, which imposes a flat 30% tax on crypto gains and doesn’t allow users to offset losses, calls to reform the law have fallen on deaf ears. Despite intense lobbying, the proposed 2026 Union Budget did nothing to reform crypto tax.
Bitcoin stays below $70,000; Trump raises tariffs 10%
Bitcoin has had a rough past couple of months, and in February, it struggled to breach the $70,000 mark.
Analysts have cited several macro pressures on Bitcoin’s price. One is the lack of progress on the CLARITY Act, the US’ proposed framework for cryptocurrency markets. Lawmakers can’t agree on ethics provisions or possible bailout provisions, and prominent lobbies, namely the crypto and banking lobbies, are at loggerheads over stablecoin interest.
Related: When will crypto’s CLARITY Act framework pass in the US Senate?
Chris Waller, a governor of the United States Federal Reserve, said, “The lack of passing of the CLARITY Act I think has kind of put people off on this.”
Another issue is tariffs. The US Supreme Court invalidated the tariffs Trump implemented using the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Trump responded by hiking global tariffs 10% using the Trade Act of 1974 as a legal foundation.
Crypto analysts and observers have noted the negative effect Bitcoin has on markets. Swan CEO Cory Klippsten said, “The biggest drag on Bitcoin price the past year has been tariffs … That’s the drag on risk assets in general, and in particular [with] Bitcoin, there’s just uncertainty around what’s gonna happen.”
Japan’s inflation dips below 2%, and Takaishi takes elections
The inflation rate of the Japanese yen has dipped below that of the dollar, falling below 2%, its lowest in three years.
The new inflation low for the yen comes after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called for snap elections. The gamble hoped to restore the majority of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to a parliamentary majority.
The gambit paid off, and now the LDP dominates the Japanese House of Representatives, the National Diet’s lower house, with a 316-member two-thirds majority.
Stock markets in Japan responded well. The Nikkei 225 (JP225) increased 10% on the month, spiking significantly after the Feb. 9 election.
[chart]
Japanese JP225 is up over 10% in February.
This could spell short-term trouble for Bitcoin, which tends to correlate with US equities, according to XWIN Research Japan. The increasing attractiveness of Japanese bonds could slow into US equity exchange-traded funds.
Related: BTC traders wait for $50K bottom: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
Buffett said that his company will increase its investments in Japanese trading houses. These include five major “sogo shosha,” or wholesale companies: Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Sumitomo.
Crypto ATMs number 40,000 as companies add new requirements
The number of cryptocurrency kiosks worldwide grew by 290 in February, bringing the total number up to nearly 40,000, according to data from Coin ATM Radar.
[graph]
290 crypto ATMs opened globally in February.
The number of cryptocurrency kiosks has fluctuated over the years. The total number dropped significantly after the crypto crash of 2022.
[graph]
Crypto ATMs globally now number nearly 40,000.
Regulators worldwide have raised concerns over crypto ATMs and the possibility of their use in money laundering, as well as scams. Some companies have taken strides to allay these concerns.
In February, the biggest Bitcoin ATM operator in the US, Bitcoin Depot, began phasing in user ID requirements for its terminals in the United States. The move followed pressure from regulators and lawmakers nationwide.
Magazine: Would Bitcoin really be at $200K if not for Jane Street? Trade Secrets
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Ripple’s latest funding push for the XRP Ledger is drawing renewed attention to XRP, with traders closely watching whether the ecosystem expansion can translate into sustained price momentum.
Summary
- Ripple boosts XRPL funding: New grants and investments aim to accelerate DeFi, tokenization, and enterprise adoption.
- XRP consolidating near $1.40: Price remains range-bound between $1.35 and $1.50 after February volatility.
- Breakout level to watch: A move above $1.50–$1.60 could signal bullish continuation, while $1.35 remains key support.
While the Ripple token (XRP) remains range-bound near $1.40, the announcement might reinforce bullish long-term sentiment around the network’s growth prospects.
In a recent blog post, Ripple detailed expanded financial backing for developers building on the XRP Ledger (XRPL), including grants and strategic investments targeting compliance-first DeFi, real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, and enterprise-grade blockchain solutions.
The initiative is designed to deepen liquidity, expand institutional participation, and strengthen core infrastructure.
By prioritizing regulated DeFi applications and tokenization frameworks, Ripple is positioning XRPL as a scalable, enterprise-ready network aligned with global financial standards. The move shows Ripple’s strategy of pairing institutional partnerships with grassroots developer growth, a combination that could enhance long-term demand for XRP as a utility asset within the ecosystem.
XRP price analysis
XRP is currently trading around $1.40, up modestly on the day, as price action consolidates following a sharp early-February decline that briefly drove the token toward $1.20 before a rebound.
Since that capitulation move, XRP has traded within a tight $1.35–$1.50 range, signaling potential accumulation. Immediate resistance stands near $1.50, with a stronger ceiling around $1.60, where prior rejection occurred.
A confirmed breakout above $1.60 could open the door toward $1.80. On the downside, key support remains at $1.35, followed by the psychological $1.20 level.
Meanwhile, the RSI (14) sits near 42, below the neutral 50 mark, indicating subdued bullish momentum but no longer oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the DMI shows the negative trend line still leading, though the gap is narrowing, suggesting bearish pressure may be weakening.
A decisive move above $1.50, particularly on rising volume, would be needed to confirm a bullish shift.
Bitcoin (BTC) sellers returned on Friday, pulling BTC price 5.5% below Wednesday’s high of $70,000 to trade at $65,950 at the time of writing. Several analysts said Bitcoin is “going much lower,” potentially reaching a bottom during the last quarter of 2026.
Key takeaways:
-
Analysts forecast BTC price to hit a bottom in Q4 based on various technical and onchain metrics.
-
Rising exchange reserves and “supply in profit” falling to 2022 lows suggest further downside pressure.
Analysts say Bitcoin price will bottom after June
According to multiple analysts, Bitcoin could extend its downtrend, possibly reaching as low as $30,000 to $45,000 during the last quarter of the year.
Related: Bitcoin’s five-month losing streak may not end in March as $70K caps price
The shortest bear market lasted 365 days, and “Bitcoin is currently about 140 days into its current bear market,” crypto trader Darky said in a Friday post on X, adding:
“We are going much lower, just a matter of time.”
Onchain data provider CryptoQuant said “bottoms take time” to form, and that Bitcoin could reach its cycle lows between “June and December,” based on previous post-halving price structures.
“Historically, the sweet spot clusters around September–November 2026.”
Fellow analyst Batman said that previous bear cycles printed their lows 365 and 396 days after the market top.
Bitcoin’s current all-time high of over $126,000 was reached on Oct. 2, 2025, and “adding 365 to 396 days puts us around October to November 2026,” Batman said, adding:
“So whatever price we get by then, I think it’s fair to say it will be a no-brainer buy.”
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin “supply in profit” metric has dropped to levels last seen at the depths of the 2022 bear market, according to data from CryptoQuant.
In 2022, the bottom phase lasted for about six months.
Overlaying the exact downward price action from that period onto the current chart, it aligns with the -70% to -75% drawdown range projected for the fifth cycle.
This suggests that Bitcoin could drop further from current levels, possibly bottoming between $31,500 and $38,000 six months from now.
On-Chain College shared a chart showing that Bitcoin broke below its Long-Term Holder True Cost Basis at $65,700 and needed to reclaim it as support.
Cost basis levels act as psychological pivots, and when the price trades below them, investors face unrealized losses and the risk of distribution increases.
A sustained position below the band tends to increase investor stress and encourages BTC capitulation.
“History would suggest that Bitcoin is due for a trip down to $42K or lower.”
As Cointelegraph reported, many analysts expect 2026 to be a bear market year, and various forecasts predict the BTC price dropping to as low as $40,000.
Bitcoin supply on exchanges keeps rising
Onchain data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin balance on exchanges has grown to 2.752 million BTC from 2.723 million in mid-January. This represents a total increase of about 28,489 BTC (+1.0%) over 45 days.
Increasing BTC supply on exchanges is a classic bearish signal that can outpace demand.
“Until the reserve turns lower and breaks back below 2.723M BTC, structural selling pressure remains intact,” analyst Axel Adler Jr. said in a recent analysis, adding:
“The key trigger for a regime change is a sustained decline in the reserve below the January lows.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
UK banking giant Barclays is reportedly exploring blockchain technology for core banking services, the latest sign that major financial institutions are evaluating digital ledger infrastructure to modernize legacy systems.
Citing people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported Friday that Barclays is seeking technology providers for a blockchain platform capable of handling payments, deposits and crypto-related applications such as stablecoins and tokenized deposits.
The lender has issued requests for information to several technology suppliers, though the companies were not identified. A vendor selection could be made as early as April, the report said.
The move would align with Barclays’ recent activity in the digital asset space. As Cointelegraph reported last month, the bank made its first stablecoin-related investment in Ubyx, a US-based stablecoin clearing platform, signaling a growing interest in tokenized payment infrastructure.
Separate reports have also suggested that Barclays may play a role in a potential initial public offering by crypto hardware company Ledger, though that involvement has not been confirmed.
Related: Wall Street’s crypto debate is over as banks go all-in on BTC, stablecoins, tokenized cash
Banks and Big Tech accelerate stablecoin push
Bloomberg framed Barclays’ reported blockchain initiative within a broader push by banks and technology companies to evaluate stablecoins, which enable faster, lower-cost and around-the-clock settlement compared to traditional payment rails.
Interest in stablecoins has accelerated as institutions explore tokenized deposits and onchain payment systems that could streamline cross-border transfers and reduce reliance on intermediaries.
The shift isn’t limited to banks. Meta Platforms is reportedly revisiting its stablecoin ambitions years after shelving its high-profile Diem project, signaling renewed Big Tech interest in blockchain-based payments.
For traditional lenders such as Barclays, stablecoins present both an opportunity and a competitive risk. If widely adopted, privately issued digital dollars could weaken banks’ control over deposits and payment flows, two pillars of their business model.
The debate is especially relevant in the United States, where lawmakers are weighing market structure and stablecoin legislation, including discussions around whether issuers should be permitted to offer rewards.
Even without yield-bearing features, however, large-scale stablecoin adoption could shift liquidity away from traditional bank deposits and into tokenized alternatives.
Related: Modern Treasury integrates stablecoin settlement alongside ACH and wires
Shares of Figure Technology Solutions, a blockchain-based consumer lending marketplace, plunged on Friday after the company reported mixed fourth-quarter results the prior day, signaling a more difficult operating environment even as revenue continued to climb.
For the quarter ended Dec. 31, the company posted revenue of $159.9 million, up from $83.9 million a year earlier, and net income of $15.1 million, compared with $5.9 million in the same period of 2024. Earnings were $0.06 per diluted share, compared to zero a year earlier.
Analysts polled by Yahoo Finance expected earnings of $0.18 per share on revenue of $157.7 million.
Growth was driven by increased lending activity. Consumer Loan Marketplace volume, which reflects total loans originated and traded on the platform, reached $2.7 billion during the quarter, up from $1.2 billion a year earlier.
For the full year, net income totaled $134.3 million, up from $19.9 million in 2024, while revenue reached $506.9 million, compared with $340.9 million a year earlier.
The company also authorized a share repurchase program allowing it to buy back up to $200 million of its stock over the next 12 months.
Shares fell about 20% to $27.12 in morning trading on Friday following the earnings release.
Related: Figure Technology unveils blockchain platform for direct stock lending: Report
Crypto stocks surged in 2025 before retracing
Figure began trading on the Nasdaq in September after pricing its initial public offering at $25 per share, raising nearly $800 million. The stock rose more than 24% on its first day of trading and climbed to a high near $74 in January, before retreating.
Figure’s post-IPO trajectory mirrors volatility seen across other crypto-linked equities, many of which rallied sharply in late 2025 before surrendering gains amid the broader crypto market pullback.
Shares of crypto exchange Gemini Space Station (GEMI) surged on its Nasdaq debut on Sept. 12 after pricing its IPO at $28 per share. The stock briefly topped $40 on its first day of trading, but has since fallen to around $5.94, at the time of writing.
Stablecoin issuer Circle also experienced a volatile debut. The company went public on June 5, after upsizing its IPO to $1.05 billion, selling 34 million shares at $31 each, above its initial target of 24 million shares priced between $24 and $26.
In its first day of trading, Circle’s shares surged 167%, opening at $69 and climbing as much as 235% intraday before closing at $82. The stock later reached an all-time high of $263.45 on May 25, then retraced nearly 70% to around $83, per Yahoo Finance data.
Magazine: Would Bitcoin really be at $200K if not for Jane Street? Trade Secrets
The White House pushed for a breakthrough on stablecoin yield negotiations for the CLARITY Act this weekend. It did not happen. Instead, fresh reports from sources close to the talks suggest the crypto market structure bill remains far from a final deal.
Banking representatives and crypto lobbyists are still divided over whether stablecoins can generate yield for users. That dispute continues to block progress in the Senate.
The CLARITY Act Nowhere Near a Resolution?
According to Eleanor Terrett, banking-side sources described the negotiations bluntly. Draft language exists, but the sides are “not close.”
Other banking trade groups pushed back on claims the talks are collapsing, saying discussions are ongoing and input on draft text continues.
The split narrative reflects how fragile the negotiations have become.
Where the Bill Stands Now
The House passed the CLARITY Act in July 2025 with bipartisan support. The bill aims to define when digital assets fall under SEC oversight and when they qualify as commodities under the CFTC. It also establishes registration rules for exchanges, brokers, and custodians.
After clearing the House, the bill moved to the Senate Banking Committee. There, it stalled.
No markup has been completed. No floor vote is scheduled.
The legislation remains stuck in committee.
Stablecoin Yield Is the Flashpoint
Originally, the bill focused on regulatory clarity between the SEC and CFTC. But in early 2026, the fight shifted to stablecoins.
Senate negotiators introduced draft language that would restrict interest or yield payments tied to stablecoin holdings. Banks support tighter limits. They argue that yield-bearing stablecoins could function like unregulated bank deposits.
Crypto firms strongly oppose that view. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has publicly argued that stablecoins can generate yield responsibly and that banning rewards would harm innovation.
That disagreement now threatens the broader market structure framework.
White House Pressure, But No Breakthrough
The White House has convened meetings between banks and crypto firms in recent weeks. Officials reportedly wanted a deal on yield before March.
However, sources say key language remains unresolved.
Bank trade groups such as the American Bankers Association and the Independent Community Bankers of America have reportedly rejected claims that negotiations are collapsing. Still, there is no finalized text.
What Is Still Unresolved
Four core issues remain:
- Whether stablecoin rewards count as prohibited interest
- How sharply to limit exchange incentives
- The final boundary between SEC and CFTC authority
- The scope of obligations for DeFi developers
Until yield language is settled, broader market structure reforms cannot move forward.
When Will the CLARITY Act Pass?
The next key step is a Senate Banking Committee markup. No date has been announced.
If negotiators narrow differences in March, a committee vote could follow later in the month. If talks drag on, the bill risks slipping deeper into election-year politics.
For now, the CLARITY Act remains alive — but stalled.
The question is no longer whether Congress wants crypto rules. It is whether banks and crypto firms can agree on who controls stablecoin economics.
ARB is trading ~96% below its 2024 ATH, with analysts framing current demand-zone compression as a potential long-term accumulation phase for a future trend reversal.
Summary
- ARB sits near historic lows, roughly 96% below its 2024 peak and at major wick support in a multi‑year descending channel.
- Price is compressing in a high‑timeframe demand block, with volume absorption signaling weakening sell pressure and possible Wyckoff‑style accumulation.
- Traders watch two key resistance levels for structure confirmation; a breakdown below invalidation would void the accumulation thesis.
Arbitrum’s (ARB) native token is trading near historic lows following a prolonged decline from its 2024 peak, with technical analysts identifying the current price level as a potential long-term entry point, according to market analysis.
The token reached its all-time high in 2024 before entering a sustained downtrend. The asset now trades at approximately 96% below its peak, positioned within what analysts describe as a high-timeframe demand block, according to technical chart analysis.
One market analyst noted the token is positioned at the bottom of a multi-year descending channel inside a high-timeframe demand block. The level holds historical significance, with prior capitulation wicks forming in the same area, according to the analysis. Price action has compressed sideways following the most recent decline.
Technical analysts are treating the current range as a structural accumulation zone. Volume absorption at this level suggests diminishing selling momentum, according to market observers. The compression in volatility supports the possibility that a price base could be forming, analysts stated.
Characteristics of a Wyckoff accumulation cycle appear to be forming on the token’s chart, according to technical analysis. Phase C, which typically marks the final shakeout before a recovery in the classical framework, appears to be in play. Demand absorption signals point to institutional-style accumulation at the current price range, analysts reported.
Two levels stand out as critical confirmation points for traders monitoring the asset. A break above initial resistance would mark the first break of structure favoring buyers, while a move above higher resistance would signal a full trend regime change, according to the technical analysis.
The analyst outlined a multi-stage target path reaching prior resistance zones and longer-term projection targets. A full cycle expansion would represent substantial gains from current levels, according to the analysis. On the downside, a defined invalidation level remains the reference point for the accumulation thesis. A sustained close below that level would void the current technical structure, analysts stated.
The setup draws attention from technically driven traders due to multiple technical confluences, including channel support, historical wick lows, volume absorption, and volatility compression converging at the same zone, according to market analysis.
Arbitrum is classified as a high-beta asset, meaning it tends to move sharply when broader cryptocurrency market conditions shift. This amplified sensitivity creates both downside risk and potential upside opportunity during recovery cycles, analysts noted.
No directional move has been confirmed, and traders are waiting on structure confirmation before taking larger positions, according to market observers.
Tensions between Washington and Tehran escalated further on February 27 after the FBI designated Iran as a State Sponsor of Wrongful Detention. The bureau said it remains committed to returning Americans held captive abroad and bringing their captors to justice.
The FBI highlighted two long-running cases. One involves Robert A. Levinson, a retired FBI special agent who disappeared in 2007 during a trip to Kish Island, Iran.
The US government continues to offer rewards totaling up to $25 million for information leading to his recovery
The second case involves Shayan Kazemi, a US citizen who went missing in Istanbul in 2011. The US government is offering up to $200,000 for information leading to his safe return.
What the FBI’s Designation Means
A “State Sponsor of Wrongful Detention” designation signals that the US government believes a country is detaining American citizens unfairly, often for political leverage. It does not automatically trigger military action.
However, it elevates diplomatic pressure and centralizes recovery efforts under the US Hostage Recovery Fusion Cell.
The move sharply increases political friction. It frames detentions not as isolated incidents but as state-backed tactics.
US Military Posture Tightens
The announcement comes amid heightened military activity in the Middle East. The US has moved advanced fighter jets and additional assets into Israel and the surrounding areas as tensions with Iran rise.
Officials describe the deployment as a deterrence. Yet markets view the buildup as preparation for a potential escalation if nuclear talks collapse or regional clashes intensify.
Cuba Pressure Adds to Global Risk
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump suggested earlier today that the US could pursue a “friendly takeover” of Cuba.
His comment follows weeks of economic pressure on Havana, including oil restrictions that triggered blackouts and fuel shortages.
The combination of Iran escalation and Cuba pressure rattled markets.
Bitcoin, which had been attempting to recover toward $70,000, fell more than 3% on the day to around $65,000. Traders appear to be reducing risk exposure as geopolitical uncertainty rises.
For now, diplomatic channels remain open. But the language from Washington suggests tensions are entering a more dangerous phase.
Morgan Stanley has applied for a de novo national trust bank charter, allowing the bank to hold digital assets on behalf of its clients — a move in rhythm with its recent crypto expansion.
A public filing with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) shows the application for a bank trust charter was received on Feb. 18 under the name “Morgan Stanley Digital Trust, National Association.”
More details of the business plan were released on Friday, according to reports from Bloomberg and Forbes, revealing that the Morgan Stanley subsidiary will custody certain digital assets and execute purchases, sales, swaps and transfers to support client investment activities, along with crypto staking.
A national bank trust charter authorizes a financial institution to engage in fiduciary activities such as trust services, custody and asset safekeeping. “De novo” is a Latin term for “anew,” meaning it is a newly created entity rather than an acquired one.
This is Morgan Stanley’s first trust charter with a specific focus on crypto and follows 14 de novo bank charter applications in 2025. There are approximately 60 national trust banks supervised by the OCC in the US.
Rush for crypto bank charters
In December, the OCC conditionally approved five applications for crypto-related national trust banks, including First National Digital Currency Bank, Ripple, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets and Paxos.
Stablecoin platform Bridge, owned by payments processor Stripe, said it received conditional approval for a national trust bank earlier this month, which was followed by Crypto.com on Monday.
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Days later, Payoneer, a global financial services firm, said it had filed for a national trust bank charter in the US, which could enable it to issue a stablecoin and provide various crypto services.
Morgan Stanley doubling down on crypto
Morgan Stanley has accelerated its moves toward crypto in recent months. In January, the Wall Street bank tapped equity markets executive Amy Oldenburg to lead its new crypto unit.
Job listings on LinkedIn show the $2 trillion investment bank is also looking to expand its crypto team, advertising positions for digital assets strategy director, digital assets strategist and digital assets product lead.
Morgan Stanley also filed to launch spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) exchange-traded funds in January, and later filed for a staked Ether (ETH) ETF.
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BTC ETFs saw ~+$507m net inflow Feb. 25 as BlackRock bought thousands of BTC from Coinbase Prime, but BTC still slipped on profit‑taking.
Summary
- BlackRock shifted multiple 300 BTC batches plus a 108.6 BTC transfer from Coinbase Prime to IBIT wallets around 5:45 PM UTC on Feb. 26.
- U.S. spot BTC ETFs booked about $507m net inflows on Feb. 25, the strongest single‑day inflow in roughly two weeks, led by IBIT’s ~$297m.
- BTC traded near recent highs but dipped on profit‑taking, with on‑chain data showing sellers capping price below key resistance despite renewed ETF demand.
BlackRock purchased a substantial amount of bitcoin during the strongest single-day inflow for U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds in two weeks, according to market data.
Data showed BlackRock transferred thousands of bitcoin to its iShares Bitcoin Trust wallets on Feb. 26, according to blockchain analytics firms. The transfers originated from Coinbase Prime hot wallets and occurred in several batches within the same hour, the data showed. Blockchain analytics firms shared logs showing multiple transfers of approximately 300 bitcoins to addresses linked to the iShares trust. The timestamp for these transfers was recorded at approximately 5:45 PM UTC.
BlackRock had purchased additional bitcoin days earlier and had transferred bitcoin to Coinbase the day before, according to transaction records. Market analysts tracked the activity as other ETFs reported outflows during the same period.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded strong net inflows on Feb. 25, marking the highest one-day inflow in two weeks, according to data from SoSoValue. Total cumulative inflows have reached tens of billions of dollars across all issuers, the data showed. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust led inflows for the day. Fidelity’s bitcoin ETF, Grayscale’s trust and Bitwise also reported inflows, according to the data. Other issuers recorded smaller inflows, while some smaller ETFs reported no net flows that day.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted the renewed inflows followed weeks of withdrawals. Balchunas stated the rise in interest was well timed for the market but that it remained unclear whether the trend would mark a sustained rebound.
Bitcoin traded near recent highs but declined that day, falling even as ETF inflows increased, according to market data. Charts showed bitcoin briefly declined during the trading session. On-chain data indicated recent profit-taking kept bitcoin below certain resistance levels, with demand slowing near that range and recovery attempts in February meeting resistance at similar levels, according to blockchain analysts.
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