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How did the polls in the US fare over the past week? This may sound like a simple question, but depending on what you’re actually asking, your chosen yardstick and possibly even your fundamental beliefs about the human psyche, there are half a dozen equally legitimate answers.

Let’s start with the basics. At the national level, the polling average on election eve had vice-president Kamala Harris winning the popular vote by around one and a half percentage points. At the time of writing, Donald Trump is on course to win by that same margin, for a combined miss of around three points. This is a smaller error than four years ago, and almost bang on the long-term average.

At the state level, the polls were on average closer to the outcome this year than in either 2016 or 2020. However, for the first time in 50 years of public polling, the average survey in every single state underestimated the same candidate — Trump.

But the thing is, these same statistics provoke wildly different reactions in different people. For the average left-leaning American who had spent weeks staring at a blue number that was marginally higher than a red number, Tuesday’s results were earth shattering proof that polling is broken. The three-point miss might as well have been 20 points.

But from the perspective of pollsters, political scientists and statisticians, the polls performed relatively well. The misses, both at national and state level, were all well within the margin of error, and the fact that the polls were no worse at capturing the views of Trump states than of deep blue ones — a marked contrast to 2016 and 2020 — suggests the methodological refinements of recent years have worked.

If your temptation is to scoff at that last paragraph, let me offer you this: Google searches in the US for terms like “why were the polls wrong” peaked far higher last week and in 2016 than they did in 2020, despite the fact that the polls underestimated Trump by even more in 2020.

The reason is fairly obvious, but it has nothing to do with statistics or polling methodology. The human brain is much more comfortable with binaries than probabilities, so a close miss that upturns the viewer’s world stings much more than a wider miss that doesn’t.

But I don’t mean to let the industry completely off the hook, and to that end there are two separate issues that need to be addressed.

The most obvious is that although the polls fared slightly better this year, this was still the third successive underestimation of Trump. The methodological tweaks that pollsters have made since 2016 have clearly helped, but the basic problem remains. Whether due to new sources of bias introduced by these tweaks, or to further shifts in the rates at which different types of people answer surveys, pollsters appear to be walking down the up escalator.

The second is a more fundamental issue with how the numbers are presented. It’s true that pollsters and polling aggregators have been giving loud and clear warnings for weeks about how a very narrow margin in the polls not only could, but quite likely, would still see one side or the other win decisively. But such a proliferation of health warnings raises the question of whether polls, polling averages and their coverage in the media are doing more harm than good.

Let’s say that you the pollster and I the journalist know that the true margin of error in a poll is at best plus-or-minus three points per candidate — that is, a poll with candidate A leading by two points is not inconsistent with that candidate losing by four on election day even if the poll was perfect. And suppose that we also know that humans instinctively dislike uncertainty and will fixate on any concrete information. Then who is served when we highlight only a single number?

If we want to minimise the risk of nasty shocks for large portions of society, and we want pollsters to get a fair hearing when the results are in, both sides need to accept that polls deal in fuzzy ranges, not hard numbers.

john.burn-murdoch@ft.com, @jburnmurdoch

THERE’S a new favourite chocolate tub and it has sent shoppers into frenzy – with one declaring it would replace Quality Streets.

Shoppers have flocked to M&S to pick up a giant festive tub branded better than all of the Christmas faves.

With Christmas just around the corner, M&S has mixed its iconic Mini Bites into a family sharer for the first time ever.

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The epic mix is three times the size of the classic tubs, and includes the bestselling double chocolate mini rolls, caramel crispies, and new festive flavour, cranberry and yoghurt clusters.

An M&S icon since 2001, there are 14 tubs in the range, plus three new tubs for the festive season.

The new tub is set to fly off the shelves, after the brand announced the new festive treats on Instagram, sending shoppers in a frenzy.

On person said: “This will definitely replace Quality Streets this Christmas.”

A second person commented: “This is the best idea EVER. Totally obsessed!.”

While a third summed up the delicious treat with a simple: “Yum”.

M&S is also launching two new festive Mini Bites flavours tMint Choc Chip Mini Bites (£3.75, 215g) and Extremely Chocolatey Yule Log Bites (£3.75, 295g).

The family sized mini bites selection is £10 for a 700g tin and can be found in the M&S food hall and online on Ocado.

Christmas Treats

Everyone loves a sweet treat during the festive season and whether your preference is for Cadbury Heroes, Celebrations or a classic tub of Quality Street these are the cheapest prices.

If you’re partial to a tub of Quality Street, both Aldi and Lidl are selling 600g tubs for £4.49 – making them the cheapest out there.

In comparison Sainsbury’s and Tesco are selling the chocolates for £4.50 for Nectar and Clubcard holders, while Asda has priced them at £6 individually, or £9 for two.

Morrisons is also pricing the tubs at £6, while Ocado is charging £5.

Quality Street was launched in 1936 and has been a favourite with families since.

The selection includes ‘the purple one’ which brings together hazelnut and caramel, the toffee finger, orange chocolate crunch, strawberry delight and ‘the green triangle’.

Cadbury Heroes lovers can also pick up 550g tubs for £4.50 from Sainsbury’s and Tesco if they are Nectar or Clubcard members.

Asda has Heroes tubs included in its two for £9 deal, meaning if you’re happy to double up you can pick them up at the supermarket for the same price as Tesco and Sainsbury’s shoppers.

Meanwhile, Aldi is selling the tubs for £4.99 and Morrisons for £6.

The Heroes selection includes Cadbury Dairy Milk, Twirl and Crunchie.

Celebrations are also available for £4.50 from Tesco for Clubcard members, or as part of Asda’s two for £9 deal.

Aldi is selling the tubs for £4.99, Sainsbury’s for £6 and Morrisons for £6.

The Celebrations selection includes Mars, Snickers, Twix, Bounty and Galaxy.

If you’re sharing chocolates with family this year and want to pick up a selection of tubs Asda’s two for £9 deal, which includes Quality Street, Cadbury Heroes, Celebrations, Cadbury Roses and a Swizzels assortment, may be the way to go.

The UK could face a £22bn hit to its exports if Donald Trump imposes a blanket 20% tariff on all imports into the US, according to a new analysis.

UK exports to the world could fall more than 2.6% due to lower trade with the US and knock-on effects globally, economists at the University of Sussex’s Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP) said.

This fall could happen if the President-elect went through with his repeated campaign promise to levy a 20% tax on all imports, and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.

The decline in trade would be the equivalent of an annual hit to UK economic output of 0.8%.

Although Trump’s aggressive pledges could be a negotiating tactic, the “possibility of these tariffs being imposed is certainly there”, researcher Nicolo Tamberi said in a blog post.

The main UK sectors likely to be hit would be fishing, petroleum, and mining, which could see exports fall by around a fifth.

The pharmaceutical and electrical sectors would also be hit.

Even businesses that are not exporters themselves could be affected.

For example, firms supplying transportation services, which rely on strong trade flows, would take a hit.

Insurance and finance services also support the underlying goods trade.

However, some sectors could benefit from reduced China exports to the US.

Textiles and clothing could see gains due to reduced competition, if Chinese exports were hit by much higher Trump tariffs.

Just how sharp the increase in border taxes under Donald Trump might be remains unclear. Some diplomats have pointed to more pragmatic suggestions about lighter tariffs for US allies.

But Trump’s top adviser on trade, former Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, is a strong supporter of the tactic.

The Foreign Secretary David Lammy recently told the BBC’s Newscast podcast: “We will seek to ensure and to get across to the United States – and I believe that they would understand this – that hurting your closest allies cannot be in your medium or long-term interests, whatever the pursuit of public policy in relation to some of the problems posed by China.”

But the British ambassador in the US under Trump’s previous administration, Lord Darroch, has warned the UK should not underestimate the risks.

“I’m a pessimist,” he told BBC Newsnight on Thursday. “Trump did tariffs in his first term on steel and aluminium. He wants to go much bigger this time. He believes in it – it’s not a bluff. I think he will do it.”

Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey have both said they will continue to make the argument for free trade.

The UK might be in a position to have to choose whether to try to cut a side deal with the Trump White House to avoid tariffs.

Alternatively the UK could join with other Western and European allies to send a clear message to Trump and the US Congress that American exporters would also be badly hit by such policies.

The CITP numbers only assume that the US sets tariffs on the world, and do not assume a likely trade retaliation from Europe or Asia.

The IMF recently warned that a large scale trade war would drive up inflation and lead to the world economy shrinking 7%, effectively the size of the French and German economies combined.

THE best holiday park in the UK has been named – and it has a heated swimming pool, adventure trails for kids and an indoor soft play area.

Located in Holywell, Cornwall, Trevornick Holiday Park has been named the AA Holiday Park of the Year at the AA Caravan & Camping Awards.

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The awards celebrated 12 sites across the country, with a team of experts choosing the winners based on their quality and customer satisfaction.

Simon Numphud, Managing Director at AA Media, said, “As local travel continues to grow and sustainable tourism gains momentum, we are excited to announce the best camping and caravanning destinations for the upcoming year.

“This year’s winners have demonstrated outstanding quality along with a strong dedication to eco-friendly practices and customer satisfaction, making them excellent options for UK travellers.”

It’s easy to see why the Cornish holiday park has won favour with industry experts.

Family-run Trevornick Holiday Park has an on-site heated swimming pool with a poolside terrace.

For younger guests, there’s also a smaller, shallower pool and a splash zone with tipping buckets, jets and fountains.

There’s also a jacuzzi and a spa for adults.

It’s also a short walk from Holywell Bay Beach – a National Trust site boasting a mile-long stretch of sand.

The beach is popular with surfers and bodyboarders, with one two-hour surf lesson at a local school available for Trevornick Holiday Park guests.

There are plenty of on-site activities for kids too, including a kids’ club called Wild Tribe.

Kids can take part in craft activities and a talent show.

There’s also the Bear Den – an indoor soft play area – and an on-site arcade with amusement games.

Outside, there’s a sports field, a playground with swings, slides and climbing ropes, and a forest trail with climbing frames, a balance beam and climbing nets.

There’s also an 18-hole golf course

The evening entertainment includes singers, magicians and comedians.

Other facilities include a washroom, a laundrette, WiFi and an on-site hire shop where guests can rent surfboards and bodyboards.

There is one on-site restaurant, Woody’s Bar and Restaurant, with guests also able to order takeaway grub like fish and chips and pizzas from the Courtyard Takeaway.

The Farm Club and the Lounge Bar are the two on-site bars at the Cornish holiday park.

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An on-site farm shop sells a range of local produce

There are a range of overnight accommodation options to choose from, including static caravans, luxury lodges, holiday cottages and touring pitches.

Sun Online Travel have found three-night stays in a static caravan from £153 per night for four people.

Guests who want to stay during the winter months will need to book overnight accommodation in either the luxury lodges or the holiday cottages, with other options re-opening for the summer season in April.

Trevornick Holiday Park has been praised by visitors, with a 4/5 star rating on TripAdvisor.

One person wrote: “Brilliant campsite with the most friendly and helpful staff”.

Another added: “We’ve enjoyed holidaying at Trevornick so much, we don’t look anywhere else”.

Last week, Robbie revealed England’s top three underrated holiday parks – with private beaches, indoor water parks and jet skis for kids.

And here are the other lesser-known holiday parks named among the best in the UK.

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The Department of Justice is investigating potential price-fixing in the market for PVC pipes, which follows allegations of a conspiracy in the $4bn market for municipal water pipes and so-called electrical conduit pipes made in a recent short seller report and civil class action lawsuits.

The probe was disclosed in a filing by manufacturer Otter Tail, which said on Thursday it had received a grand jury subpoena “for production of documents regarding the manufacturing, selling, and pricing of PVC pipe”.

Plaintiffs in civil lawsuits had alleged that manufacturers, including Otter Tail, used a specialist News Corp-owned trade journal to facilitate price fixing by signalling and coordinating price rises following the Covid pandemic. 

One complaint filed in an Illinois court in August alleged that PVC & Pipe Weekly, published by News Corp’s Opis division, was “the proverbial smoke-filled backroom that enabled the defendants to discuss and signal their pricing activities”.

Otter Tail, a listed power utility that owns manufacturer Northern Pipe, said it fully intended to comply with its obligations and that it was too early to assess the potential impact of the investigation and civil litigation. 

It warned investors that an antitrust violation could have a “material impact” on its financial condition, and said it “believes that there are factual and legal defences to the allegations in the complaints and intends to defend itself accordingly”.

The DoJ declined to comment.

Municipal water pipes and conduit pipes used to house electrical cables are commodity products typically sold in a variety of dimensions by distributors.

The DoJ investigation follows a report in July by the pseudonymous short seller firm ManBear, which said prices “defy economic logic” and that price inflation had pushed “profits to never-before-seen levels” that were unsustainable. 

ManBear disclosed short positions in Otter Tail, manufacturers Westlake and Atkore, and also Core & Main, a water pipe distributor, which the report alleged had “benefited materially from pipe inflation”.

ManBear is a low-profile activist that has previously focused on antitrust questions, alleging price fixing in the chicken industry in a 2016 report. Chicken producer Pilgrims Pride subsequently agreed a $110.5mn settlement with the DoJ, while three of its executives and two at a rival were acquitted at trial on antitrust charges.

Otter Tail’s share price has dropped 14 per cent since the ManBear report, to $81.34 on Friday morning.

Core & Main is not a defendant to the civil suits. A spokesperson said it was unaware of any price fixing, that any suggestion of its involvement was baseless and that “honesty and integrity are part of our core principles”.  

Westlake previously declined to comment on pending litigation. Atkore did not respond to requests for comment.

The civil suits also named News Corp as a defendant. The company said its product “provides newsworthy information to a wide variety of subscribers” and that it intended to fight the lawsuits, which it said were “entirely without merit”.

THOSE concerned about their bills this winter can pick up a simple £7.99 gadget that could slash energy costs by hundreds of pounds.

With Brits facing high energy prices and millions of pensioners missing out on the winter fuel payment, many are looking for help with managing costs this year.

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Lidl may have the answer thanks to a plug-in power meter that measures how much energy your appliances are really using.

The £7.99 power meter will measure usage and calculate costs according to your energy tariff and is available in store from Sunday November 10.

It works like a second plug – you slot it into your socket, and then plug your appliance into it.

You can use it for any appliance you plug in, including televisions, freezers, washing machines and dryers.

The information it provides can help households identify which devices are guzzling energy allowing them to change habits to cut their bills.

To take a read simply plug the monitor into the socket, set the unit price and plug in your appliance before using it as normal to see how much energy it uses in a typical day.

Consumer champion Which? said: “Using an energy monitor is one of the best ways to clearly ascertain how much electricity you’re using on individual appliances  — hopefully helping you to work out where money can be saved in the long run.”

Low Energy Supermarket estimates that a plug-in power monitor will help you to discover savings of £200 per year.

When selecting a power meter always remember to compare statistics and prices, to ensure you’re getting the best deal.

This can be done using comparison tools such as trolley.co.uk.

A quick internet search showed that Screwfix has a similar model for £18.99 and Amazon is selling a range of devices available for around £10.

Power meters will only measure the energy used from one plug socket, so if you want to know the total amount of energy you’re using around the house you may want to install a smart meter.

But, the benefit of a power meter is that it can help you quickly identify which appliances are using the most power.

A dad-of-two went around every room in his house using the device to see how much his appliances cost to run – and was shocked by the results.

The biggest cost drain was his old freezer, which was costing him around 68p a day to run – amounting to a whopping £250 a year.

With everything he learned he was able to make some changes and save a whopping £750 a year.

It is worth remembering that the energy price cap was considerably higher at that time, so savings are unlikely to be as high now.

The energy price cap is currently £1,568, the lowest figure in two years.

The cap is calculated based on the wholesale price of gas and electricity and what Ofgem thinks an average household will use.

Other ways to monitor energy usage

Smart plugs aren’t the only way to keep track of your energy usage.

Getting a smart meter installed can also help track how much you’re spending on gas and electricity.

These are different to smart plugs as they look at energy usage around the whole home rather than for each device.

The actual smart meter sends the readings to your supplier so you don’t have to, while the in-home display screen shows you how much you’re spending.

Most energy suppliers provide smart meters and displays for free. However, some users have reported issues with their devices, for example when changing providers.

Your supplier should be able to answer any questions you have.

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories