As the cognoscenti of the Democratic party emerge dazed and confused from the rubble of Tuesday’s election, many have latched on to the theory, expressed in John Burn-Murdoch’s recent column (“Democrats join 2024’s graveyard of incumbents”, Opinion, November 7), that there is “no set of policies or personas that can overcome the current global anti-incumbent wave”.
The allure of this theory among Democratic elites is understandable, as it allows them to throw up their hands and say that their party lost due to forces beyond their control. Just like the feverish “Russiagate” fantasies that flourished in the wake of the defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016, the Burn-Murdoch theory will do more harm than good, as it strips the Democratic party of agency and lets it off the hook for misreading the mood of the US electorate and running a weak candidate whose muddled message was exceptionally ill-suited for the moment.
While 2024 was certainly a tough year for incumbents, the Burn-Murdoch narrative is by no means universal. Consider, for example, Mexico, where leftist president Andrés Manuel López Obrador — whose popularity never dipped below 60 per cent during a six-year term that overlapped with both Donald Trump and Joe Biden — was recently replaced by his close ally, Claudia Sheinbaum, who won Mexico’s presidential election in a landslide, becoming Mexico’s first “presidents” in the process. Are Mexican voters immune to the “anti-incumbency wave”? Or could it be that the wave is a mirage, and that the truth is less mystical. Voters reward politicians who speak to their needs and pursue policies that make a difference in their lives, and they punish those who don’t.
Tuesday’s result was not “locked-in” as Burn-Murdoch suggests. Nothing in politics is, even in this age of populist fury. Pretending that Trump’s victory was a fait accompli may be cathartic, but it will prevent the type of deep introspection that is desperately necessary to stop and reverse the Democratic party’s descent into irrelevance.
In the first week of November, launching a month of campaigns around the risks of karoshi, or death by overwork, Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) opened a confidential hotline that encouraged the nation’s workers to complain about their bosses.
The hotline operators were braced, as they have been every November for the past few years, for a wide range of accounts of workplace miseries — from unpaid wages and harassment to poor conditions and failure to protect mental health.
But the central aim, as always, was to survey the problem of excessive working hours — an issue that has, for decades, lived at the heart of Japan’s worker-employer relationship and entrenched the idea that Japanese workplaces thrive on unpaid overtime, presenteeism, and coercion.
The situation is changing, with average working hours now looking like they are coming down. However, academics say that hidden factors complicate the picture. Excessive overtime can be masked by the country’s army of part-time employees. Other strategies, such as giving staff “name only” management roles that allow them to work hours far beyond official time-stamped limits, also obscure reality.
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But the bigger question, which the same academics say becomes more pressing with each passing year, is whether that other great challenge confronted by Japan — the rapid ageing and shrinking of its population — is making the overwork problem better, or worse. For example, is it is forcing through long-overdue productivity boosters, such as digitisation and automation, quickly enough to make any difference?
In many sectors of the economy, labour is in increasingly tight supply — partly because of demographics, but also because of low labour market liquidity, and limited movement of the workforce between areas of low and high demand.
In some areas, such as pay, these labour shortages are strengthening workers’ hands. Keisuke Nakamura, a researcher on labour issues, says workers’ scarcity value, and the ever more pressing need for companies to attract and retain them, means bosses will come under increasing pressure to compromise on working hours. However, he also warns that labour shortages can pile pressure on workers to “fill in” the gaps which, in many cases, can mean working longer hours of undeclared overtime.
It is now 10 years since Japan brought into force a law to prevent death and injury from overwork. The legislation was pushed through parliament in recognition of the fact that the situation had deteriorated and had, it noted, “grown into a significant societal concern in Japan”.
In terms of some of the most recent headline figures, broader progress looks mixed. According to the MHLW’s 2024 nationwide survey of more than 26,000 businesses, employees reported that they had worked illegal overtime at 44.5 per cent of those organisations — a 1.9 percentage point increase from the previous year’s survey.
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At the same time, though, the overall trend of average working hours shows a steady decline for both men and women. In a government report tracking working patterns since 1973, the average hours worked per week fell from 50 hours for men to below 45 and from about 45 for women to below 35 — close to the average for all non-farm employees in the US.
The annual karoshi prevention campaign, and the obligation on the government to conduct the accompanying surveys, are explicitly built into the 2014 act. More powerful than that law, however, were the 2018 Work Style reforms — a series of measures phased in over several years, which, among other changes, capped the overtime that companies can require staff to work at 100 hours in any given month. Critically, the rules were extended to the vast realm of small and medium-sized businesses, which employ roughly 70 per cent of the Japanese workforce.
The impact of the reforms, along with their implications for the wider Japanese economy, has been most visible in the transportation sector, where strict limits on the number of hours of overtime that truck drivers could work came into effect in April.
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Dubbed the “2024 problem”, the change has prompted grave warnings of what shorter hours will mean to a consumer society that has come to depend on 24-hour convenience stores, just-in-time delivery, and a logistics system built when labour was plentiful and massive overtime was the norm.
In a study published in July, the Nomura Research Institute projected that Japan would have 36 per cent fewer truck drivers than needed by 2030 because of the curbs on hours. In part, this reflects the demographics of an industry where 20 per cent of drivers are currently over 60 years old and only 10 per cent are under 30.
The many ideas discussed around how to offset the 2024 problem — reserved lanes for self-driving trucks, incentives to customers for less prompt delivery, and switching some logistics functions from the roads to the bullet train network — are instructive.
Labour shortages appear to be inspiring productivity innovations that seemed less urgent in an era when labour was in ready supply.
Corporate Japan, says a recent report by the Daiwa Institute of Research, is increasingly thinking along the same lines in terms of the productivity gains it must rush through in order to keep businesses going. Companies have been forced to streamline working processes and to reduce the number of low-priority tasks, the think-tank says.
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Still, until such measures take full effect, it warns, large companies are tending to compensate for the tighter caps on working hours by hiring more aggressively.
Japan may be on the road to solving its long hours problems, but is still moving slowly. A positive milestone would be deciding it no longer needed the karoshi hotline.
MORE than 100 Post Office branches and some 1,000 jobs are at risk under a sweeping overhaul.
The Post Office revealed it is looking to offload 115 directly owned branches within its 11,500 network, which could see them transferred to retail partners or postmasters or potentially closed.
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Around 1,000 workers are employed across the branches, while the Post Office also confirmed that hundreds of further roles are under threat at its headquarters as it looks to streamline back-office operations.
The move is part of the Post Office’s strategy to transition to a fully franchised model.
Franchising is a business model where a company (the franchisor) grants permission to an individual or group (the franchisee) to operate a business using its brand, products, and processes in exchange for a fee.
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Approximately 99% of Post Office branches are now operated by franchisees, with only 1% of sites being directly managed.
The Post Office has stated that it does not plan to reduce its approximately 8,500 branches, which independent postmasters and local businesses operate.
Additionally, there are 2,000 Post Offices managed by retailers, such as WHSmith and the Co-op, which will remain unaffected.
FULL LIST OF POST OFFICE BRANCHES AT RISK
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THE full list of branches at risk of closure include:
Royal Mail plans to cut 2nd-class deliveries to save £300m a year
Martin Quinn from Campaign for Cash said: “This is another nail in the coffin for communities who rely on the Post Office network for access to cash services.
“The government must immediately demand that this closure programme be stopped and treat the Post Office network as national infrastructure.”
The Post Office has also called for handing ownership of the network to thousands of subpostmasters nationwide.
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Mr Railton said: “The Post Office has a 360-year history of public service, and today, we want to secure that service for the future.”
He added the overhaul also “begins a new phase of partnership during which we will strengthen the postmaster voice in the day-to-day running and operations of the business, so they are represented from the frontline to the boardroom”.
The number of Post Offices in operation across the UK has significantly declined since the 1960s, when there were approximately 25,000 branches.
This decline is partly due to more people receiving benefits and pensions directly into their bank accounts, reducing their need for the Post Office’s services.
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Post Offices were once the sole providers of postage stamps, but now stamps can be purchased from supermarkets and petrol stations.
Over the past decade, the number of branches has stabilised at around 11,500.
Despite these changes, the 364-year-old institution remains wholly owned by the state and continues to be Britain’s largest retail network.
A spokesman for the Post Office said: “The plan intends to create a new operating model for the business that means ensuring the Post Office has the right organisational design.”
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But the Communication Workers Union (CWU) union called on the Post Office to halt the plans and for the Government to intervene.
CWU general secretary Dave Ward said: “For the company to announce the closure of hundreds of Post Offices hot on the heels of the Horizon scandal is as tone deaf as it is immoral.
“CWU members are victims of the Horizon scandal – and for them to now fear for their jobs ahead of Christmas is yet another cruel attack.”
TROUBLED TIMES
It comes after it was revealed that government ministers are exploring plans to transfer ownership to employees, similar to the model used by the John Lewis Partnership.
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It is based on the idea that its workers are each part-owners of the company and receive a share of annual profits.
Whitehall insiders admitted that the Post Office is in a lot of trouble and is only financially viable because of an annual subsidy it receives from the government.
Highlighted by the ITV drama Mr Bates vs The Post Office, it has been labelled Britain’s biggest miscarriage of justice after they were accused of stealing cash from their branches.
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Many had their lives destroyed, were imprisoned, and some even passed away or committed suicide before finally being exonerated.
Former sub-postmaster Sir Alan Bates, who tirelessly campaigned for justice, is still waiting to agree on a compensation settlement and has called on the government to consider suing former directors of the company.
Why are retailers closing stores?
RETAILERS have been feeling the squeeze since the pandemic, while shoppers are cutting back on spending due to the soaring cost of living crisis.
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High energy costs and a move to shopping online after the pandemic are also taking a toll, and many high street shops have struggled to keep going.
The high street has seen a whole raft of closures over the past year, and more are coming.
The number of jobs lost in British retail dropped last year, but 120,000 people still lost their employment, figures have suggested.
Figures from the Centre for Retail Research revealed that 10,494 shops closed for the last time during 2023, and 119,405 jobs were lost in the sector.
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It was fewer shops than had been lost for several years, and a reduction from 151,641 jobs lost in 2022.
The centre’s director, Professor Joshua Bamfield, said the improvement is “less bad” than good.
Although there were some big-name losses from the high street, including Wilko, many large companies had already gone bust before 2022, the centre said, such as Topshop owner Arcadia, Jessops and Debenhams.
“The cost-of-living crisis, inflation and increases in interest rates have led many consumers to tighten their belts, reducing retail spend,” Prof Bamfield said.
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“Retailers themselves have suffered increasing energy and occupancy costs, staff shortages and falling demand that have made rebuilding profits after extensive store closures during the pandemic exceptionally difficult.”
Alongside Wilko, which employed around 12,000 people when it collapsed, 2023’s biggest failures included Paperchase, Cath Kidston, Planet Organic and Tile Giant.
The Centre for Retail Research said most stores were closed because companies were trying to reorganise and cut costs rather than the business failing.
However, experts have warned there will likely be more failures this year as consumers keep their belts tight and borrowing costs soar for businesses.
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The Body Shop and Ted Baker are the biggest names to have already collapsed into administration this year.
MORTGAGE borrowers are being hammered with higher costs as major lenders hike rates and pull top deals despite a recent cut to the Bank of England base rate.
In a blow to buyers, HSBC, Barclays, Santander and Nationwide are among the big lenders that have upped prices this week.
Over the past month around 200 deals have disappeared from the market, in the biggest month-on-month reduction since July 2023, according to analysis from data site moneyfactscompare.co.uk.
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In a blizzard of price increases this week, Nationwide has pushed up rates putting an end to its sub 4% products.
HSBC has now hiked rates twice within as many weeks.
At the same time, Santander has also raised for new and existing customers by up to 0.31%.
A reduction in central interest rates usually marks a fall in borrowing costs.
Yet, in an unexpected and unwelcome twist, mortgage borrowers are now seeing costs rise.
The average two-year fixed mortgage rate today is 5.44%, pushed up from 5.39% shortly before the Bank of England base rate reduction, according to data from moneyfactscompare.co.uk.
At the same time, the average five-year fix now sits at 5.17%, up from 5.09%.
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Experts said the lenders are pulling back from the market to avoid being overwhelmed by demand in the wake of the cut.
What is the Bank of England base rate and how does it affect me?
Nicholas Mendes, technical director at broker John Charcol, said: “While many lenders have opted to maintain their existing rates to preserve business volumes and service standards, those offering competitive pricing have been forced to adjust likely due to applications levels.
“These influxes often stretch service levels, prompting rapid rate changes to manage demand effectively.”
Market rates typically used by lenders to price mortgages have also been increasing.
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John Fraser-Tucker, head of mortgages at online broker Mojo Mortgages, said: “While the Bank of England’s decision to lower the Bank Rate last week might lead some to expect across-the-board reductions in mortgage rates, it’s important to understand that the mortgage market doesn’t always move in perfect sync with the Bank of England’s base rate decision.
“Fixed-rate mortgages, in particular, are influenced by a complex array of factors beyond just the Bank Rate. These can include the lender’s own funding costs, their view on future economic conditions, competitive positioning in the market, and even their internal goals for new business.”
Here is the full list of major lenders that have hiked rates this week…
BARCLAYS
From tomorrow (November 14) Barclays is increasing rates across purchase, remortgage and reward ranges.
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Among other increases, the change will see a two-year 5.15% fee-free fix at 90% loan to value, jump to 5.49%
HSBC
In the second increase to rates in two weeks, HSBC has today raised the cost on selected two, three, five and 10-year deals.
The rise hits first-time buyer, home mover and existing customers switching deals.
COVENTRY BUILDING SOCIETY
The lender is tomorrow (November 14) raising tracker mortgage rates for buy-to-let borrowers, as well as closing applications to new borrowers.
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NATIONWIDE
This week’s increases from the lender means that most of its sub-4% rates will also go above 4%.
For example, its five-year fixed rate deal with a £999 fee has jumped from 3.94% to 4.14%.
SANTANDER
Santander has upped rates by 0.29% on residential fixed rates for purchase, remortgage, and green products.
TSB is upping rates up to 0.3% on selected two- and five-year deals. This includes first-time buyer and homemover deals, as well as remortgage products.
Rates now start from 4.32% for new customers.
It comes after the lender also increased selected rates by 0.10% two weeks ago.
VIRGIN MONEY
The lender has raised selected two and five-year rates by up to 0.15% this week.
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Products now start from 4.29%.
RATE CUT
One smaller lender that has bucked the trend and reduced rates is MPowered Mortgages.
All of its two and three-year fixed rate mortgages have fallen by as much 0.28% for new purchase and remortgage customers.
For new purchase customers, the lender’s two-year fixed rates now start at 4.21% for 60% LTV with a £999 fee and three-year fixed rates start at 4.19% at 60% LTV with a £999 fee.
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Should borrowers fix now or wait?
The volatile market could be a worry for anyone looking to move home or fix their mortgage in the coming months.
Most mortgage offers have a shelf life of up to six months, meaning that if you apply for a deal now the lender will honour the rate even if you don’t need it until early next year.
This is a good way to lock in rates and avoid added costs if prices keep rising.
If rates happen to fall in the mean time, you can then apply for another deal further down the line.
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Nicholas Mendes said: “For clients nearing the end of their fixed-rate terms, it’s essential not to delay in the hope that rates will revert to levels seen weeks ago.
“Securing a deal now provides certainty in an uncertain market. There is always the option to review and adjust if circumstances change but acting promptly minimises exposure to further rate increases.”
How to get the best deal on your mortgage
IF you’re looking for a traditional type of mortgage, getting the best rates depends entirely on what’s available at any given time.
If you’re remortgaging and your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) has changed, you’ll get access to better rates than before.
Your LTV will go down if your outstanding mortgage is lower and/or your home’s value is higher.
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A change to your credit score or a better salary could also help you access better rates.
And if you’re nearing the end of a fixed deal soon it’s worth looking for new deals now.
You can lock in current deals sometimes up to six months before your current deal ends.
Leaving a fixed deal early will usually come with an early exit fee, so you want to avoid this extra cost.
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But depending on the cost and how much you could save by switching versus sticking, it could be worth paying to leave the deal – but compare the costs first.
You can also go to a mortgage broker who can compare a much larger range of deals for you.
Some will charge an extra fee but there are plenty who give advice for free and get paid only on commission from the lender.
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You’ll also need to factor in fees for the mortgage, though some have no fees at all.
You can add the fee – sometimes more than £1,000 – to the cost of the mortgage, but be aware that means you’ll pay interest on it and so will cost more in the long term.
The headquarters of Netmarble, one of South Korea’s leading mobile game producers, used to be called the “lighthouse of Gurodong”, the industrial district in western Seoul, because its engineers often stayed up all night to meet the deadline for game launches.
But Netmarble’s stressful work environment came under the spotlight following a series of worker deaths in 2016, sparking public criticism of so-called “crunch mode” — when developers in the IT industry put in long periods of overtime to finish a project.
And Netmarble was not alone. Naver, South Korea’s biggest search engine, came under fire in 2021, when a developer in his forties died by suicide, leaving a note indicating extreme stress from relentless overtime and workplace bullying.
Now, though, after these cases exposed apparent failures to care for employees’ mental health, a cultural change is afoot in Asia’s fourth-largest economy — albeit slowly. South Korea’s government has promised to overhaul the country’s mental health system, while big companies are providing mental health programmes for their staff.
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“Following the tragic incidents in 2016, we have been actively working over the past eight years to encourage a healthier work-life balance for our employees,” says Seijin Park, Netmarble’s spokesperson.
The company has eliminated the so-called “blanket wage system”, under which employees were forced to do overtime for free. It has also set up an on-site healthcare centre staffed with professional counsellors.
Naver, meanwhile, has established an internal human rights committee and says it regularly assesses its corporate culture. It also runs a counselling centre for employees and offers a free annual mental health check-up.
“Employees’ [personal] growth and wellbeing are directly related to corporate competitiveness,” Naver says. “We are trying to ensure that our employees can exert their best ability in their best condition.”
Experts say Korea’s wider work environment has improved since the country limited the maximum working week to 52 hours in 2018 and enacted a law in 2019 to crack down on workplace bullying.
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“Productivity has become much more important for Korean companies as the work hours get shorter,” says Jeon Sang-won, who heads a workplace mental health institute at Kangbuk Samsung Hospital in Seoul. “Big IT companies are actively investing in employees’ mental care as they are increasingly aware of the seriousness of presenteeism as well as absenteeism.”
However, many workers still complain of frequent overtime and a hierarchical corporate culture. The country has among the longest working hours in the OECD, and accusations of bullying continue due to the rigid, top-down management style.
“I have to work overtime almost every day when it gets busy,” says a 34-year-old office worker in one of Samsung’s units. “I am exhausted because of high performance pressure. I really wanted to quit when an executive recently cursed at me.”
Like many other big Korean companies, Samsung — whose electronics subsidiary is ranked 49th on the Best Employers Asia-Pacific list — offers free mental health counselling.
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The employee says he never used this because of fears that the information could be shared by his managers, but the company insists that the service is strictly confidential.
Young employees are frustrated with corporate culture lagging behind generational change
Samsung says it abides by legal working hours and supports its employees’ work-life balance. It also runs various programmes for their mental health and deals firmly with any reported verbal abuse.
Jeon estimates that 60 per cent of Korean employees’ occupational stress comes from relationship conflict, and attributes it to the value put on team work in Confucian culture.
“They suffer from all kinds of conflict stemming from generational, gender and rank differences,” he says. “Especially, young employees are frustrated with the country’s corporate culture lagging behind generational change, while working mothers show higher occupational stress due to prevalent gender discrimination.”
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DH Kim, a communications manager at one of the country’s biggest conglomerates, recently received external counselling for insomnia because of her heavy workload and conflict with her colleagues.
“It is so stressful to adjust to the collective culture,” she says. “For example, you have to attend a company dinner even if you don’t want to.”
Like Kim, many Koreans remain unhappy despite the country’s fast economic growth. South Korea’s suicide rate, at 27.3 per 100,000 people last year, is the highest in the OECD. And, according to the Ministry of Health and Welfare, the number of South Koreans seeking treatment for mental illness increased from 3.2mm in 2017 to 4.3mn in 2022 — a 35 per cent rise.
Last year, President Yoon Suk Yeol set up a committee to oversee new mental health initiatives. He also promised to offer free counselling services for 1mn people and to increase the number of mental healthcare facilities by the time his term ends in 2027.
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But Jay Kwon, a senior counsellor at MindGym, which provides corporate wellbeing services, says companies are still too focused on performance to give mental health the attention it deserves.
“Employees in cutting-edge industries are more stressed because of stronger performance pressure, but these companies tend to care more about growth and profits than their employees’ mental wellbeing,” he observes.
Jeon believes Korean companies need to make a systematic effort to overhaul toxic cultures — but reckons most see money spent on conventional management consultancy and facilities as a better way to boost productivity than investments in mental health.
“Most top managers still shun consulting on corporate culture because they don’t want to reveal the dark side of their company,” he says.
However, he adds: “When a fish struggles to breathe, you need to change the water in the fish tank.”
MILLIONS of consumers with a mental or physical disability feel excluded from products due to accessibility issues from food packaging to clothing design and store layouts.
A poll of 1,000 adults with invisible and visible disabilities revealed over two-thirds (68%) have felt ignored by retailers and manufacturers.
And 55% believe mainstream brands simply aren’t interested in making products that cater to their individual needs.
With some of the top issues being food packaging, which is hard to open, clothes which have poor sizing or awkward fastenings and stores with high shelves and poor lighting.
As a result, 76% are loyal to companies who offer a good range of accessible option.
While 80% claim brands could be missing out on millions of pounds worth of sales by not considering disabled consumers.
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The spending power of disabled people and their households, known as the purple pound, is estimated to be worth a staggering £274 billion a year.
It also emerged that while 32% don’t expect to see a change from those in the fashion or transport sectors anytime soon – technology has made pace.
With the top tech innovations for people with a disability named as virtual assistants, smart home devices and wearable devices for health monitoring.
Katharina Mayer, head of LifeStyle Lab Europe at Samsung, which commissioned the research, said: “This research has highlighted the huge opportunity for brands to better understand the accessibility needs of consumers to provide greater access for people with disabilities in the UK.
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“Companies are rarely able to test their ideas with diverse people with different needs, but this is a must”.
It also emerged 72% of those surveyed have had to abandon a purchase due to a product’s lack of accessibility.
But 56% would be willing to pay more for a product or service that fully met their accessibility needs.
When it comes to online shopping, 80% struggle with websites that are not optimised for accessibility.
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While 30% battle through a poorly designed checkout process, and 22% bemoan a lack of text descriptions for images.
Samsung’s spokesperson added: “It’s time to re-write this narrative.
“When designers consider varied needs from the beginning, they don’t just serve people with disabilities – they create solutions that benefit everyone and that is the approach we take to inclusive design at Samsung.”
Full list of benefits you can claim if you’re disabled
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Statutory Sick Pay
Disability Living Allowance
Personal Independence Payment
Disability Premiums
Access to work grant
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit
Universal Credit
New-style Employment and Support Allowance
Council tax Support
Attendance Allowance
Disabled Facilities Grant
Exemption from vehicle tax
Disabled persons railcard
Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.
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