Science & Environment
Why did the UK’s first satellite end up thousands of miles from where it should have been?
BBC/Gerry FletcherSomeone moved the UK’s oldest satellite and there appears to be no record of exactly who, when or why.
Launched in 1969, just a few months after humans first set foot on the Moon, Skynet-1A was put high above Africa’s east coast to relay communications for British forces.
When the spacecraft ceased working a few years later, gravity might have been expected to pull it even further to the east, out over the Indian Ocean.
But today, curiously, Skynet-1A is actually half a planet away, in a position 22,369 miles (36,000km) above the Americas.
Orbital mechanics mean it’s unlikely the half-tonne military spacecraft simply drifted to its current location.
Almost certainly, it was commanded to fire its thrusters in the mid-1970s to take it westwards. The question is who that was and with what authority and purpose?
It’s intriguing that key information about a once vital national security asset can just evaporate. But, fascination aside, you might also reasonably ask why it still matters. After all, we’re talking about some discarded space junk from 50 years ago.
“It’s still relevant because whoever did move Skynet-1A did us few favours,” says space consultant Dr Stuart Eves.
“It’s now in what we call a ‘gravity well’ at 105 degrees West longitude, wandering backwards and forwards like a marble at the bottom of a bowl. And unfortunately this brings it close to other satellite traffic on a regular basis.
“Because it’s dead, the risk is it might bump into something, and because it’s ‘our’ satellite we’re still responsible for it,” he explains.
BBC/Gerry FletcherDr Eves has looked through old satellite catalogues, the National Archives and spoken to satellite experts worldwide, but he can find no clues to the end-of-life behaviour of Britain’s oldest spacecraft.
It might be tempting to reach for a conspiracy theory or two, not least because it’s hard to hear the name “Skynet” without thinking of the malevolent, self-aware artificial intelligence (AI) system in The Terminator movie franchise.
But there’s no connection other than the name and, in any case, real life is always more prosaic.
What we do know is that Skynet-1A was manufactured in the US by the now defunct Philco Ford aerospace company and put in space by a US Air Force Delta rocket.
“The first Skynet satellite revolutionised UK telecommunications capacity, permitting London to securely communicate with British forces as far away as Singapore. However, from a technological standpoint, Skynet-1A was more American than British since the United States both built and launched it,” remarked Dr Aaron Bateman in a recent paper on the history of the Skynet programme, which is now on its fifth generation.
This view is confirmed by Graham Davison who flew Skynet-1A in the early 70s from its UK operations centre at RAF Oakhanger in Hampshire.
“The Americans originally controlled the satellite in orbit. They tested all of our software against theirs, before then eventually handing over control to the RAF,” the long-retired engineer told me.
“In essence, there was dual control, but when or why Skynet-1A might have been handed back to the Americans, which seems likely – I’m afraid I can’t remember,” says Mr Davison, who is now in his 80s.
Sunnyvale Heritage Park MuseumRachel Hill, a PhD student from University College London, has also been scouring the National Archives.
Her readings have led her to one very reasonable possibility.
“A Skynet team from Oakhanger would go to the USAF satellite facility in Sunnyvale (colloquially known as the Blue Cube) and operate Skynet during ‘Oakout’. This was when control was temporarily transferred to the US while Oakhanger was down for essential maintenance. Perhaps the move could have happened then?” Ms Hill speculated.
The official, though incomplete, logs of Skynet-1A’s status suggest final commanding was left in the hands of the Americans when Oakhanger lost sight of the satellite in June 1977.
But however Skynet-1A then got shifted to its present position, it was ultimately allowed to die in an awkward place when really it should have been put in an “orbital graveyard”.
This refers to a region even higher in the sky where old space junk runs zero risk of running into active telecommunications satellites.
Graveyarding is now standard practice, but back in the 1970s no-one gave much thought to space sustainability.
AstroscaleAttitudes have since changed because the space domain is getting congested.
At 105 degrees West longitude, an active satellite might see a piece of junk come within 50km of its position up to four times a day.
That might sound like they’re nowhere near each other, but at the velocities these defunct objects move it’s starting to get a little too close for comfort.
The Ministry of Defence said Skynet-1A was constantly monitored by the UK’s National Space Operations Centre. Other satellite operators are informed if there’s likely to be a particularly close conjunction, in case they need to take evasive action.
Northrop GrummanUltimately, though, the British government may have to think about removing the old satellite to a safer location.
Technologies are being developed to grab junk left in space.
Already, the UK Space Agency is funding efforts to do this at lower altitudes, and the Americans and the Chinese have shown it’s possible to snare ageing hardware even in the kind of high orbit occupied by Skynet-1A.
“Pieces of space junk are like ticking time bombs,” observed Moriba Jah, a professor of aerospace engineering at the University of Texas at Austin.
“We need to avoid what I call super-spreader events. When these things explode or something collides with them, it generates thousands of pieces of debris that then become a hazard to something else that we care about.”
Science & Environment
Our lone oil-and-gas stock strikes 2 smart deals — plus, AMD sharpens its AI focus
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street.
Buy now, pay later firms like Klarna and Block’s Afterpay could be about to face tougher rules in the U.K.
Nikolas Kokovlis | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Klarna, which is known for its popular “buy now, pay later” business, announced Wednesday it has filed initial public offering documents with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The Swedish payments company said in a statement that the number of shares to be offered and the price range for the proposed offering have not yet been determined. The timing of the listing is also subject to market conditions.
Analysts recently valued the company in the $15 billion range. At its peak during the pandemic-led surge in fintech stocks, the company had a valuation of $46 billion in a funding round led by SoftBank’s Vision Fund 2.
But Klarna took an 85% haircut in its most recent primary fundraising round, in 2022, when the firm raised money on a valuation of $6.7 billion.
Next to SoftBank, Klarna’s roster of shareholders also includes major names in venture capital, including Sequoia Capital and London-based firm Atomico.
Klarna’s CEO, Sebastian Siemiatkowski, previously told CNBC in an interview that unfavorable rules in Europe on employee stock options could risk the company losing talent to other U.S. tech giants such as Google, Apple and Meta.
“When we looked at the risks of the IPO, which is a number one risk in my opinion? Our compensation,” Siemiatkowski, who is approaching his 20th year as CEO of the financial technology firm, told CNBC. He was referring to company risk factors, which are a common element of IPO prospectus filings.
Plans for an IPO have been in the works for some time. In a February interview with CNBC’s “Closing Bell” in February, Siemiatkowski said an IPO in 2024 was “not impossible.”
In August, Klarna said it posted a profit in the first half of the year, swinging into the black from a loss last year as the firm edged closer toward its hotly anticipated stock market debut.
Klarna’s decision to go for a stock market listing in New York represents a major blow to European stock exchanges, which have been trying to encourage local tech giants to list at home.
The London Stock Exchange, for example, has made reforms to make the U.K. a more attractive market for tech companies to list, including the ability for founders to issue dual-class shares that enable entrepreneurs to maintain control over a company’s strategy and direction.
Siemiatkowski hadn’t previously committed to listing in one market over another, and London was among the markets he was considering for Klarna’s IPO.
However, in 2021 he said that the firm was more likely to list in the U.S. than the U.K., given America is a high-growth area for the firm where it is seeking to gain more brand visibility.
Digital render of NEOM’s The Line project in Saudi Arabia
The Line, NEOM
Saudi Arabia’s massive Neom megaproject, a multi-trillion dollar plan to develop a swathe of land the size of Massachusetts, has replaced its CEO in a significant reshuffling as the kingdom faces questions over the economic viability of its ambitions.
Neom’s board of directors announced Tuesday the appointment of Aiman Al-Mudaifer as acting CEO of the company following the unexpected departure of Nadhmi Al-Nasr, who was put in charge of the project in 2018.
“As NEOM enters a new phase of delivery, this new leadership will ensure operational continuity, agility and efficiency to match the overall vision and objectives of the project,” a Neom statement said. It did not disclose the reason for the departure of Al-Nasr.
The region, as envisioned by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is set to host hyper-futuristic cityscapes and structures including The Line — two parallel skyscrapers measuring at more than 100 miles long — and Trojena, a mountain ski resort capable of hosting the 2029 Asian Winter Games. The projects have faced skepticism and criticism from environmentalists and engineers in other parts of the world.
Neom’s leadership reshuffle comes at a period of changing financial pressures on the kingdom, as oil prices and demand forecasts remain subdued, and Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widens. Budgets are facing cutbacks and projects are seeing delays, three people with knowledge of the matter told CNBC, speaking anonymously due to lack of authorization to speak to the press.
NEOM map of the 500 billion dollar megacity project in Saudi Arabia along the Red Sea coast.
Peterhermesfurian | Istock | Getty Images
The Line, for instance, has been reportedly scaled back from an initial planned length of 106 miles to just 1.5 miles — which would still make it the world’s longest building. Neom executives have vocally denied these reports, calling them “false” and saying that work was continuing as planned.
“NEOM is a fundamental pillar of Saudi Vision 2030 and progress continues on all operations as planned, as we deliver the next phase of our vast portfolio of projects including THE LINE, Oxagon, Trojena, Magna and The Islands of NEOM,” the Tuesday statement from the organization said.
Saudi real GDP is expected to grow 0.8% this year, in a dramatic drop from a previous estimate of 4.4%, according to an October pre-budget report published by the Ministry of Finance. Saudi authorities also expect that the budget will remain in deficit for the next several years, as the kingdom prioritizes spending to achieve the targets of the Vision 2030 economic diversification program.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven oil price — what it needs a barrel of crude to cost in order to balance its government budget — was estimated by the International Monetary Fund to be $96.20 for 2024; a roughly 19% increase on the year before. It’s also 33% higher than the current price of a barrel of Brent crude, which was trading at around $72 as of Wednesday afternoon.
Norwegian Orca SurveyThe mystery as to why a beluga whale appeared off the coast of Norway wearing a harness may finally have been solved.
The tame white whale, which locals named Hvaldimir, made headlines five years ago amidst widespread speculation that it was a Russian spy.
Now an expert in the species says she believes the whale did indeed belong to the military and escaped from a naval base in the Arctic Circle.
But Dr Olga Shpak does not believe it was a spy. She believes the beluga was being trained to guard the base and fled because it was a “hooligan”.
Russia has always refused to confirm or deny that the beluga whale was trained by its military.
But Dr Shpak, who worked in Russia researching marine mammals from the 1990s until she returned to her native Ukraine in 2022, told BBC News: “For me it’s 100% (certain).”
Dr Shpak, whose account is based on conversations with friends and former colleagues in Russia, features in a BBC documentary, Secrets of the Spy Whale, which is now on BBC iPlayer and being shown on BBC Two on Wednesday at 21:00 GMT.
Jørgen Ree WiiigThe mysterious whale first came to public attention five years ago when it approached fishermen off the northern coast of Norway.
“The whale starts rubbing against the boat,” Joar Hesten, one of the fishermen, says. “I heard about animals in distress that instinctively knew that they need help from humans. I was thinking that this is one smart whale.”
The sighting was unusual because the beluga was so tame and they’re rarely seen as far south. It was also wearing a harness, which had a mount for a camera, and bore the words, in English, “Equipment St Petersburg”.
Mr Hesten helped to remove the harness from the whale, which then swam to the nearby port of Hammerfest, where it lived for several months.
Oxford Scientific FilmsSeemingly unable to catch live fish to eat, it charmed visitors by nudging at their cameras and even on one occasion returning a mobile phone.
“It was very obvious that this particular whale had been conditioned to be putting his nose on anything that looked like a target because he was doing it each time,” says Eve Jourdain, a researcher from the Norwegian Orca Survey.
“But we have no idea what kind of facility he was in, so we don’t know what he was trained for.”
Captivated by the whale’s story Norway made arrangements for the beluga to be monitored and fed. The name it was given – Hvaldimir – is a nod to hval which is Norwegian for whale, and the name of Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin.
Oxford Scientific FilmsDr Shpak did not want to name her sources in Russia for their own safety but said she had been told that when the beluga surfaced in Norway, the Russian marine mammal community immediately identified it as one of theirs.
“Through the chain of vets and trainers the message came back – that they were missing a beluga called Andruha,” she says.
According to Dr Shpak, Andruha/Hvaldimir had first been captured in 2013 in the Sea of Okhotsk in Russia’s Far East. A year later it was moved from a facility owned by a dolphinarium in St Petersburg to the military programme in the Russian Arctic, where his trainers and vets remained in contact.
“I believe that when they started to work in open water, trusting this animal (not to swim away), the animal just gave up on them,” she says.
“What I’ve heard from the guys at the commercial dolphinarium who used to have him was that Andruha was smart, so a good choice to be trained. But at the same time, he was kind of like a hooligan – an active beluga – so they were not surprised that he gave up on (following) the boat and went where he wanted to.”
GoogleSatellite images from near the Russian naval base in Murmansk show what could have been Hvaldimir/Andruha’s old home. Pens can clearly be seen in the water with what appear to be white whales inside.
“The location of the beluga whales very close to the submarines and the surface vessels might tell us that they are actually part of a guarding system,” says Thomas Nilsen, from Norwegian online newspaper The Barents Observer.
Russia, for its part, has never officially addressed the claim that Hvaldimir/Andruha was trained by its army. But it does have a long history of training marine mammals for military purposes.
Speaking in 2019, a Russian reserve colonel, Viktor Baranets, said: “If we were using this animal for spying, do you really think we’d attach a mobile phone number with the message ‘Please call this number’?”
Sadly, Hvaldimir/Andruha’s incredible story does not have a happy ending.
Having learned to feed himself, it spent several years travelling south along Norway’s coast and in May 2023 was even spotted off the coast of Sweden.
Then on September 1 2024 its body was found floating at sea, near the town of Risavika, on Norway’s south-western coast.
Had the long arm of Putin’s Russia caught up with the reluctant beluga?
It appears not. Despite some activist groups suggesting that the whale had been shot, that explanation has been dismissed by the Norwegian police.
They say there was nothing to suggest that human activity directly caused the beluga’s death. A post-mortem examination revealed that Hvaldimir/Andruha died after a stick became lodged in his mouth.
Science & Environment
Oil could plunge to $40 in 2025 if OPEC unwinds voluntary production cuts, analysts say
A pump jack in Midland, Texas, US, on Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024.
Anthony Prieto | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Oil prices may see a drastic fall in the event that oil alliance OPEC+ unwinds its existing output cuts, said market watchers who are predicting a bearish year ahead for crude.
“There is more fear about 2025’s oil prices than there has been since years — any year I can remember, since the Arab Spring,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, an oil price reporting agency.
“You could get down to $30 or $40 a barrel if OPEC unwound and didn’t have any kind of real agreement to rein in production. They’ve seen their market share really dwindle through the years,” Kloza added.
A decline to $40 a barrel would mean around a 40% erasure of current crude prices. Global benchmark Brent is currently trading at $72 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures are around $68 per barrel.
Oil prices year-to-date
Given that oil demand growth next year probably won’t be much more than 1 million barrels a day, a full unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts in 2025 would “undoubtedly see a very steep slide in crude prices, possibly toward $40 a barrel,” Henning Gloystein, head of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, told CNBC.
Similarly, MST Marquee’s senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic posited that should OPEC+ unwind cuts without regard to demand, it would “effectively amount to a price war over market share that could send oil to lows not seen since Covid.”
However, the alliance is more likely to opt for a gradual unwinding early next year, compared to a full scale and immediate one, the analysts said.
Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double.
Martoccia Francesco
Energy strategist at Citi
The oil cartel has been exercising discipline in maintaining its voluntary output cuts, to the point of extending them.
In September, OPEC+ postponed plans to begin gradually rolling back on the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts by two months in an effort to stem the slide of oil prices. The 2.2 million bpd cut, which was implemented over the second and third quarters, had been due to expire at the end of September.
At the start of this month, the oil cartel again decided to delay the planned oil output increase by another month to the end of December.
Oil prices have been weighed by a sluggish post-Covid recovery in demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy and leading crude oil importer. In its monthly report released Tuesday, OPEC lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.6 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day.
The pressured prices were also conflagrated by a perceivably oversupplied market, especially as key oil producers outside the OPEC alliance like the U.S., Canada, Guyana and Brazil are also planning to add supply, Gloystein highlighted.
Bearish year ahead for oil
The market consensus is that there’ll be a “substantial” oil stock build next year, said Citibank energy strategist Martoccia Francesco.
“Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double… reaching as much as 1.6 million barrels per day,” said Francesco.
Even if OPEC+ doesn’t unwind the cuts, the future ofl prices is still looking break. Citi analysts expect Brent price to average $60 per barrel next year.
Further fueling the bearish outlook is the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whose return is associated by some with a potential trade war, said analysts who spoke to CNBC.
“If we do get a trade war — and a lot of economists think that a trade war is possible, and particularly against China — we could see much, much lower prices,” said OPIS’ Kloza.
Trump has also touted a “drill baby drill” policy for U.S. producers, vowing to cut energy prices in half.
For that to happen to retail gasoline prices, oil would need to drop to “below $40” per barrel, said Matt Smith, Kpler’s lead oil analyst.
Right now, retail gasoline prices are at a “sweet spot” at $3 per gallon, where consumers do not feel the pinch and input prices are still sufficiently high for producers, Smith added.
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