It took Polymarket less than 24 hours to turn a Middle Eastern war into an active trading floor.

Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran Saturday, the prediction market has seen a flood of new contracts covering everything from ceasefire timelines to whether the Iranian regime will collapse by June.

The speed and specificity of the markets is striking. Bettors aren’t just wagering on whether the conflict escalates, but pricing the week it ends, who replaces Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and whether U.S. ground forces enter Iran by March 7.

Polymarket’s largest completed market is “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?” which resolved to 100% after Iranian state TV confirmed his death on Saturday.

The contract pulled $45 million in volume, making it one of the most-traded geopolitical markets in the past week. The top trader, an account called “Curseaaaaaaa,” made $757,000 on a “yes” bet. Four other traders each cleared six figures.

The chart on that market hovered between 25% and 50% through January and February as tensions built, then spiked vertically to 100% when confirmation came through.

The biggest market, however, is the “US strikes Iran by…?” contract, which has been live since December 22 and has now pulled $529 million in total volume, making it one of the largest single markets Polymarket has ever hosted.

That figure makes it the largest market in Polymarket’s “World” and “Geopolitics” categories by a wide margin, and the fourth-largest in the broader “Politics” category behind only Trump-related contracts from the 2024 election cycle.

The February 28 date alone attracted $89.6 million in trading. Every daily contract from February 28 through early March resolved to “yes” after the strikes began, meaning anyone who bought the specific date before the attack collected on a binary bet about when the U.S. military would bomb another country.

The market’s resolution rules were precise. It required drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil by U.S. forces, with interceptions, cyberattacks, and ground operations not counting.

Now the trading action has shifted to what comes next.

The ceasefire market gives just a 4% chance of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by March 2 and 15% by March 6, but jumps to 61% by March 31 and 78% by April 30. Bettors are pricing a resolution within weeks, not months, consistent with bitcoin’s bounce to $68,000 on the same thesis.

“Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” sits at 54%, up sharply from the low-20s where it had traded for months. The “Next Supreme Leader of Iran” market gives a 30% chance to “position abolished” entirely, meaning bettors see nearly a one-in-three shot that the theocratic structure itself doesn’t survive. Ali Larijani, a former parliament speaker, leads the named candidates at 21%.

The ground invasion contracts are pulling real volume too. “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” trades at 19% with $207,000 in volume, while “US forces enter Iran by March 7” sits at 28% with $2 million traded.

What Polymarket is doing here is something traditional markets structurally, and legally, cannot. Equity and oil futures don’t reopen until Sunday evening, but on Polymarket, anyone with a crypto wallet can take a position on Iranian regime change on a weekend and see real-time pricing from thousands of other participants doing the same thing.

But the most striking activity may have happened before the first missiles landed.

Onchain analytics firm Bubblemaps on Saturday identified six wallets that collectively netted $1.2 million in profit by betting on a U.S. strike on Iran by February 28, the exact day the strikes occurred.

Most of the wallets were funded within 24 hours of the attack, bet specifically on the February 28 contract rather than broader timeframes and purchased “yes” shares hours before the military operation began. The largest single wallet turned roughly $61,000 into over $493,000 in profit. A second netted approximately $120,000 from a $30,000 position.

The platform is aware of the optics, meanwhile.

Polymarket added a note to its Middle East markets on Sunday stating that “the promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society.” It went on to claim that after speaking with people directly affected by the attacks, it found that prediction markets “could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and X could not.”

The site also created an entire, dedicated section for Iran-focused markets.

UPDATE (March 1, 2026, 06:30 UTC): Adds additional detail.
UPDATE (March 1, 2026, 07:15 UTC): Adds that Polymarket bets set a new record for the platform.

Bitcoin prices have recovered from a dip tied to geopolitical headlines, shifting sentiment in a market that has grown increasingly sensitive to macro risk events. In early Sunday trading, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) climbed toward the upper end of a recent range after yesterday’s volatility driven by reports of U.S.-and-Israel strikes on Iran. The asset had briefly touched a floor near $63,000 before a run higher helped recoup the losses in less than a day. By Sunday morning, price data circulated by TradingView placed BTC on Coinbase at about $68,200, signaling a relief rally as traders weighed the potential implications for risk assets in the near term. The bounce comes after a weekend that saw liquidity stress and rapid re-pricing as newsflow evolved.

The market’s day-long swing was notable not just for the price spike but for the underlying fragility it exposed. In the 24-hour window, roughly 157,000 traders were liquidated, translating to about $657 million in total liquidations, with a near-even split between leveraged long and short positions. The figure, tracked by CoinGlass, underscored the extent to which risk-on and risk-off trades collide in a geopolitical backdrop that has kept many participants on edge. While the move higher drew some relief, the overall liquidity environment remains sensitive to headlines, complicating calls about sustained momentum in the weeks ahead.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin briefly surged to around $68,200 on Coinbase before a pullback left it near $67,350, continuing a three-week trading range around the $67k level.
• Over the past 24 hours, about 157,000 liquidations occurred, totaling roughly $657 million, with roughly equal shares of longs and shorts liquidated, per CoinGlass.
• Unverified but widely circulated reports of high-level leadership casualties in Iran fed sudden volatility, though the situation remained fluid as markets awaited official confirmation.
• February closed as Bitcoin’s third-worst February on record, with a decline close to 15%, marking one of the worst month-ends since 2013 and contributing to a difficult start to the year (Q1) for the asset.
• Analysts cautioned that de-escalation signs before the week’s opening could help sustain gains, though upside remains contingent on geopolitical clarity and macro risk sentiment.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Neutral. The bounce offset a steep intraday drop, but BTC remains within a tight, range-bound pattern rather than establishing a clear breakout.

Market context: The price action sits amid a broader backdrop of geopolitical risk and risk-off liquidity dynamics, with intraday moves driven by headlines as traders recalibrate exposure to macro and policy risks. Recent data show concentrated volatility around major news events, reinforcing a cautious stance among most market participants.

Why it matters

For traders, the brief rebound toward the mid-to-high $60k zone after a sharp decline emphasizes Bitcoin’s role as a potential haven within a high-risk environment, even as it remains tethered to overall risk sentiment. The rapid liquidations in a 24-hour period highlight how quickly leveraged positions can unwind when headlines shift, underscoring the importance of risk management and hedging in crypto portfolios. The episode also demonstrates that, despite episodic spikes, price action continues to reflect a balance between demand from allocators seeking a store of value and the pressure from macro and geopolitical headlines that can compress liquidity and amplify moves in either direction.

Analysts’ commentary around the potential for de-escalation to support further gains captures a common thread: Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory in this environment is highly contingent on the speed and visibility of political developments. One analyst noted that if conflict signals resolve ahead of the next market open, BTC could stabilize and potentially push higher. Others warned that any renewed escalation or uncertainty could quickly reverse the recent rebound, given the asset’s history of volatile responses to global tensions. In this context, the market’s probability distribution shifts with every fresh headline, making prudent risk management more important than ever for participants navigating this space.

Beyond geopolitics, Bitcoin’s February performance remains a cautionary signal. The asset finished the month down about 15%, marking its third-worst February in the data set and contributing to a challenging start to the year. This performance places Bitcoin on track for its worst first quarter since 2018, with losses approaching the mid-20% range year-to-date in a few scenarios. Such numbers reinforce that the cryptocurrency market is not immune to broader cyclicality and risk-off periods, even when episodic catalysts temporarily provide support. The data points to a market still digesting a period of elevated volatility, with traders weighing whether a more sustained recovery can emerge from macro normalization and improved liquidity conditions.

Against this backdrop, traders continue to monitor on-chain activity and liquidations as practical indicators of market risk appetite. The scale of recent liquidations suggests a broad reticence among highly leveraged participants, and it remains to be seen whether this sentiment translates into a more durable bid or gives way to renewed selling pressure if the geopolitical picture remains uncertain. The episode also highlights the constant tension between macro risk signals and crypto-specific fundamentals, where retail and institutional participants alike seek price discovery in a market characterized by 24/7 trading and near-instantaneous reaction to news flow.

What to watch next

• Any official statements or de-escalation signals from U.S. or allied authorities regarding Iran and the region, ahead of the next market open.
• Price action around key support and resistance levels near the current three-week range, with attention to whether BTC maintains momentum above or retreats below the mid-$60k zone.
• Changes in liquidity and funding rates on major exchange platforms as risk sentiment shifts in response to headlines and macro data releases.
• Updates on geopolitical developments, including any verification of leadership changes or military assessments, that could alter risk-on versus risk-off dynamics for crypto markets.

Sources & verification

• Bitcoin price data and range observations from Coinbase trading data and TradingView.
• Liquidation figures (157,000 traders; about $657 million total) reported by CoinGlass.
• BBC reporting on Iran’s leadership developments and attribution of events to the Iranian leadership.
• Public posts and commentary on the geopolitical situation, including statements on Truth Social by former U.S. President Donald Trump.
• Reported US-Israel air strikes on Iran as referenced in market commentary.

Bitcoin price moves amid geopolitical tensions and liquidity shifts

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) kept a close watch on news flow as markets absorbed headlines about U.S.-led strikes in the Middle East and the broader risk landscape. After a dip that briefly carried prices toward the low $60k region, BTC staged a partial recovery, briefly topping $68,200 on Coinbase before easing back. The rebound unfolded within a roughly three-week trading band centered near $67,000, illustrating the market’s struggle to establish a durable directional bias amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The intraday swing, while dramatic, did not necessarily translate into a lasting breakout, and traders remained cautious about the asset’s medium-term trajectory.

From a risk-management perspective, the latest price action coincided with large liquidation activity. In the last 24 hours, data indicated around 157,000 liquidations totaling approximately $657 million—an amount that underscores how quickly highly leveraged positions can be unwound when volatility spikes. The liquidations appeared roughly evenly split between longs and shorts, suggesting a broad spectrum of market participants faced margin pressure regardless of their directional stance. These dynamics are emblematic of a market where liquidity can be episodically thin and sentiment-sensitive, particularly in the wake of geopolitical events and shifting macro cues.

The geopolitical narrative surrounding Iran added another layer of complexity. Reports from credible sources suggested that Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, had been killed in a Saturday operation, with subsequent coverage by outlets such as the BBC. Such claims, whether confirmed or refuted, tend to catalyze rapid price revision as traders reassess risk premia and potential spillover effects on regional stability. Notably, commentary from market observers emphasized that the trajectory of Bitcoin would likely hinge on whether the conflict shows signs of de-escalation before the market opens on Monday, a scenario that could preserve or extend the current gains. As one analyst noted on social media, the possibility of a peaceful trajectory could help Bitcoin maintain momentum, while renewed hostilities could precipitate renewed volatility.

Despite the back-and-forth, February’s performance looms large in the narrative surrounding BTC. The asset closed the month with a near-15% slide, marking its third-worst February on record and continuing a pattern of weak early-year performance. The broader implication is an ongoing risk-off phase that has persisted into 2026, with the question for market participants being whether a combination of de-risking, thin liquidity, and regulatory developments can eventually pave the way for a more sustained recovery. The data point toward a volatile environment where macro and geopolitical developments can overshadow even localized bullish catalysts, compelling traders to adopt disciplined risk controls and clear exit strategies.

As the market awaits more clarity, the path forward appears to be shaped by the interplay between conflict resolution signals and the crypto market’s own liquidity dynamics. The narrative remains unsettled, and the potential for further volatility persists as new information emerges. In this context, BTC’s price action will likely reflect not only technical support and resistance but also broader shifts in risk appetite, funding costs, and investors’ willingness to allocate capital to an asset class that remains highly sensitive to global developments. For now, the market seems to be testing the resilience of Bitcoin’s bid while staying vigilant for the next headline that could swing the balance.

Bitcoin prices have recovered from their dip following the US-Israeli air strikes on Iran and reports of the death of the Iranian Supreme Leader.

Bitcoin (BTC) prices reached $68,200 in early trading on Sunday morning on Coinbase, according to TradingView.

The asset has now recovered all losses from its dip to $63,000 on Saturday, adding $5,000 in less than 24 hours following the news that the United States and Israel had commenced air strikes on Iran. 

BTC is currently trading back at Friday’s levels, around $67,350 at the time of writing, but remains within a three-week range-bound channel. 

Over the past 24 hours, around 157,000 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations coming in at $657 million, roughly evenly split between leveraged longs and shorts, according to CoinGlass. 

Iranian Supreme Leader Killed

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said Ayatollah Khamenei was killed early Saturday morning at his office, reported the BBC.

US President Donald Trump described the hardline Islamist cleric as “one of the most evil people in history” on his social media platform, Truth Social.

“This is not only justice for the people of Iran, but for all great Americans, and those people from many countries throughout the world, that have been killed or mutilated by Khamenei and his gang of bloodthirsty thugs,” he said. 

The commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mohammad Pakpour, and the secretary of Iran’s Defense Council, Ali Shamkhani, were also killed in the US-Israel strikes.

Related: Bitcoin bottom fractal calls for 130% rally, but is the model valid in 2026?

“After news of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei’s death, the market pumped because people are taking it as the end of the US-Iran war,” commented analyst Ash Crypto on Sunday. 

“If this conflict shows signs of resolution before Monday’s open, I think Bitcoin can hold its gains and move higher,” he added. 

Bitcoin’s third-worst February ever

Despite the recent gains, Bitcoin has just closed its third-worst February in history and only the fourth time since 2013 that the asset has ended the month in the red.

BTC shed just under 15% last month, but its worst February was in 2014 when it lost 31%, followed by 2025 when it fell 17.4%, according to CoinGlass.

The asset is also on track to close its worst-performing first quarter since 2018, having lost almost 23% so far since the beginning of the year.

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