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Iran-Israel war, crude oil, FII flows among 9 factors that may steer markets this week

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Iran-Israel war, crude oil, FII flows among 9 factors that may steer markets this week
Benchmark indices closed sharply lower on Friday amid broad-based selling, with auto, financials and FMCG stocks bearing the brunt. As domestic markets reopen on Monday, a packed calendar of global and domestic triggers is expected to shape investor sentiment.

The 50-stock Nifty declined 317.90 points, or 1.25%, to settle at 25,178.65.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the index has fallen steeply after spending three sessions below its key short-term moving average. It has also slipped beneath the 200-day moving average (DMA), signalling continued weakness in the near term.

“The RSI indicator has turned sharply bearish. In the short term, the index may remain under selling pressure, with any rally likely to face resistance. Immediate support is seen at 25,000 and 24,750 levels, while resistance is placed at 25,370,” De said.

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1) Iran-Israel war

By the time global markets open on Monday, the Iran-Israel conflict could escalate further, heightening uncertainty across financial markets. Investor sentiment will likely remain fragile as long as hostilities persist, with reports suggesting the conflict may last for weeks.

On Saturday, Israel launched pre-emptive strikes on Iran after the United States and Iran failed to reach an agreement on a nuclear deal.
US President Donald Trump described the development as “major combat operations in Iran” in a social media video following the strikes, which were reported near the offices of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Iran retaliated by firing missiles at targets in Israel as well as at US bases located in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait.
Also read: Iran-Israel tensions likely to trigger choppy trade on Monday. What should investors do?

2) US markets

Domestic equities are likely to take cues from the action on Wall Street. Major US indices ended lower on Friday amid risk-off sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 521.28 points, or 1%, to close at 48,977.90. The Nasdaq Composite declined 210 points, or 1%, to settle at 22,668.20, while the S&P 500 also finished in the red, though with a relatively smaller loss of 0.43%.

3) Crude oil

Crude oil prices will remain a key monitorable. Both Brent and US WTI benchmarks surged more than 3% in the previous session and could extend gains when trading resumes on Monday.

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US WTI crude futures settled at $67.29 per barrel, up $2.08 or 3.19% in a single session. Brent crude rose 3.4%, or $2.37, to close at $72.87 per barrel. Both benchmarks are currently trading at their highest levels since July and August.

The trajectory of inflation is closely tied to crude oil prices. As India meets nearly 80% of its crude requirement through imports, any sustained spike in oil prices could exert pressure on domestic inflation and weigh on market sentiment.

Also read: Iran-Israel war: Up 20% in 2026, crude oil stares at $80 a barrel

4) FII / DII action

Friday data shows Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold Indian equities worth Rs 7,536.36 crore. The domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers at Rs 2,292.81 crore.

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FIIs turned net buyers in February, picking up Indian equities worth Rs 22,615 crore during the month but Friday’s sharp sell-off has cast doubt on the sustainability of that trend reversal. With the Iran-Israel conflict escalating over the weekend, risk appetite could take a back seat, prompting foreign investors to adopt a wait-and-watch approach before committing fresh flows to emerging markets.

Also read: FIIs pour Rs 22,615 crore into Indian equities in February. Can Iran-Israel conflict flip the trend?

5) AI threat

Analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, said the IT sector remains under sustained pressure on both fundamental and technical fronts. “Momentum indicators reinforce the weakness. The RSI is deeply oversold around 22, ADX is rising—signalling a strengthening downtrend—and MACD remains well below the zero line. Unless the index reclaims 31,000–31,300, the outlook stays negative, with any recovery likely to be slow rather than swift,” Shah said.

6) Sector watch

The Iran-Israel/US war may directly impact many sectors. Oil marketing companies (OMC) are likely to be adversely affected if oil prices rise sharply. Their margins could get hit, hitting their profitability. On the other hand, explorers like ONGC could benefit. Paint and tyre companies which use crude oil as a raw material may also be adversely impacted.

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Airline and tourism stocks are also expected to react on Monday.

7) Technical triggers

Nilesh Jain, Vice President- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse said Nifty has slipped below its crucial 200-DMA placed at 25,350, which is now expected to act as an immediate resistance zone. The index continues to exhibit a lower top and lower bottom formation on the daily chart, reflecting a weakening trend, he said.

“Momentum indicators remain cautious, with the MACD signalling a sell crossover and the RSI gradually drifting lower. Meanwhile, India VIX moved up by 5% to around 13.50, and any further rise in volatility could intensify downside risks. The key psychological support is now seen at the 25,000 mark, and the overall structure points towards continued weakness, with pullbacks likely to face selling pressure,” he added.

8) Rupee Vs dollar

Rupee movement against the US dollar will be closely tracked. The rupee declined 17 paise to settle at 91.08 against the US dollar on Friday, weighed down by a massive outflow of foreign funds and a sharp rise in global crude oil prices amid geopolitical uncertainties.

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At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 90.91 and moved in a narrow range of 90.91-91.08 before settling at 91.08, down 17 paise from its previous close.

The rupee settled on a flat note at 90.91 against the US dollar on Thursday.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias on the weak tone in the domestic equities and geopolitical risks between the US and Iran. $INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 90.70 to Rs 91.20,” Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst, Mirae Asset ShareKhan, said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.05 per cent lower at 97.74.

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9) IPO watch

The primary market will see limited action this week with just one company launching its public offer for subscription. The only new issue opening next week is the Rs 1,087 crore IPO of Sedemac Mechatronics. The offer, which is entirely an offer for sale, will open on March 4 and close on March 6. The price band is set at Rs 1,287-1,352 per share.

Meanwhile, nine companies are scheduled to list across the mainboard and SME platforms. Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions, Shree Ram Twistex and PNGS Reva Diamond Jewellery will be among the mainboard listings. On the SME side, Yaap Digital, Accord Transformer, Mobilise App, Kaisa Retail and Striders Impex will make their debuts.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

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In polarised Iran, Khamenei’s death triggers celebrations and grief

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In polarised Iran, Khamenei’s death triggers celebrations and grief


In polarised Iran, Khamenei’s death triggers celebrations and grief

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Congress should repeal Section 230 to end Big Tech legal immunity

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Congress should repeal Section 230 to end Big Tech legal immunity

Thirty years ago, Congress passed Section 230 to help fragile internet start-ups survive litigation attempts on multiple fronts. In 1996, Americans logged on with dial-up modems and gathered on message boards. Lawmakers wanted to protect burgeoning companies from crushing defamation, copyright, and other lawsuits over something a random user posted. Congress aimed to nurture innovation, protect free speech, and let a competitive marketplace flourish.

That may have made sense then. Today it does not.

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What Congress framed as a narrow free-speech shield became a permanent amnesty program for trillion-dollar Silicon Valley monopolists. Section 230 no longer protects speech. It protects power.

Instead of scrappy start-ups, Americans now answer to online oligarchs. Google. Facebook. Amazon. Apple. These companies do not merely host content. They control search, social media, online commerce, app distribution, and digital advertising. They shape what Americans see, read, buy, and believe. And they invoke Section 230 to shield themselves while they censor, silence, and cancel their political opponents.

UNDER OATH, META’S ZUCKERBERG SHOWED WHY BIG TECH CAN’T POLICE ITSELF

Congress granted platforms immunity for content users post, and Congress allowed them to moderate content in “good faith.” Lawmakers assumed competition would discipline abuse. If one platform censored too aggressively, users could leave for another.

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A technology executive stands on stage presenting new hardware during a company event.

Mark Zuckerberg, chief executive officer of Meta Platforms Inc., appears during the Meta Connect event in Menlo Park, California, on Sept. 17, 2025. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

That competition never materialized. Big Tech executives bought rivals, crushed start-ups, and leveraged network effects to lock in dominance. They turned platforms into monopolies. They used scale to entrench power. Even conservatives who distrust these companies must still use their platforms to reach voters, customers, and each other.

Meanwhile, courts expanded Section 230 far beyond its original purpose. Judges stretched the statute to cover conduct Congress never contemplated. Silicon Valley lawyers pushed aggressive interpretations, and courts accepted them. As a result, trillion-dollar monopolists now decide what Americans may say online while they coordinate with politicians and bureaucrats who demand crackdowns on so-called “misinformation.”

GOOGLE’S DECISION TO WALK BACK BIDEN-ERA YOUTUBE ACCOUNT BANS HAILED AS ‘HUGE DEVELOPMENT’ FOR FREE SPEECH

That is not a free market. That is government-enabled censorship.

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Conservatives paid the price. Big Tech companies hunted down, censored, and canceled voices that challenge the Ruling Class. They deplatformed doctors and scientists who questioned COVID orthodoxy. They censored Hunter Biden’s criminal activity under the guise of “content moderation.” Americans would rather call it viewpoint discrimination. They deplatformed the sitting President of the United States of America.

Hunter Biden

Hunter Biden, son of U.S. President Joe Biden, arrives to the J. Caleb Boggs Federal Building on June 06, 2024 in Wilmington, Delaware. The trial for Hunter Biden’s felony gun charges continues today with additional witnesses. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images / Getty Images)

At the same time, these companies insist they need blanket immunity to avoid liability for horrific content – human trafficking, terrorism, drug trafficking – content they monetize through ads and engagement. They profit from the system at every step. But when harm follows, they point to Section 230 and deny responsibility.

JILLIAN MICHAELS: BIG TECH BUILT A DIGITAL DRUG — AND OUR KIDS ARE HOOKED

That is not neutrality. That is corporate welfare.

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Section 230 does not appear in the Constitution. Congress created it in 1996, and Congress can reform or repeal it. No company possesses a constitutional right to government-granted immunity. When lawmakers grant special protections to powerful corporations, those corporations use that protection to accumulate even more power.

Washington made that choice. Washington can reverse it.

JOSEPH GORDON-LEVITT SLAMS BIG TECH FOR SEXTORTION, THREATS TO CHILDREN WHILE CALLING FOR KEY INTERNET REFORM

If Meta had competed against Instagram instead of acquiring it, Americans might enjoy more choices and less centralized control. If YouTube had competed with Google instead of merging into it, creators might not depend on a single gatekeeper. Consolidation strengthened censorship power. Immunity protected consolidation.

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For three decades, Congress and federal regulators coddled Silicon Valley. They tolerated consolidation. They defended immunity. They ignored warning signs. Now, Americans live under digital gatekeepers who answer to no one.

Conservatives do not want bureaucrats to police speech. But we must refuse to let trillion-dollar corporations wield government-granted immunity while they silence half the country. We must reject permanent amnesty for politically biased monopolists.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Thirty years is long enough. Congress should strip Big Tech of its Section 230 immunity. Lawmakers should restore competition, enforce antitrust laws, and hold platforms accountable under the same legal standards that govern everyone else.

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Stop the amnesty. End the sweetheart deal. Repeal Section 230.

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Gold, silver prices likely to soar tomorrow amid escalating Middle East war; what lies ahead?

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Gold, silver prices likely to soar tomorrow amid escalating Middle East war; what lies ahead?
The prices of gold and silver will remain in focus tomorrow after US-Israel’s strikes on Iran killed the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Analysts expect high volatility as elevated geopolitical tensions can push investors towards safe-haven assets like precious metals.

Khamenei’s death, which was confirmed by Iranian state media earlier today, triggered warnings about sharp retaliation from Tehran. US President Donald Trump announced that the 86-year-old leader had been killed on the first day of what he described as massive joint airstrikes.

Geopolitical tensions trigger risk-off sentiment, shifting investors away from equity markets and towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver. The precious metals had seen a record bull run in the beginning of this year, strongly rallying amid Trump’s tariff flip flops and other uncertainties, before seeing some correction.

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Expect volatility in precious metals

Gold and silver prices are set to remain highly volatile with a gap up in the opening session tomorrow as the Middle East conflict involving renewed US and Israeli military action against Iran continues to dominate global risk sentiment, said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.

“A sharp escalation in hostilities, with coordinated strikes and retaliatory moves is fueling uncertainty and diminishing hopes of a quick diplomatic resolution. This elevated geopolitical risk can drive investors toward traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver, and widely expect a gap-up opening for bullion markets,” he said.


As global equities and risk assets come under pressure, capital tends to shift into precious metals, which act as a hedge against uncertainty, the analyst explained. “Earlier moves have already pushed gold and silver prices higher in recent sessions, and this momentum could continue if the conflict intensifies further. Energy markets are also responding, with crude oil prices rising on fears of supply disruption through key routes like the Strait of Hormuz, which further adds to risk-off sentiment and supports bullion interest,” he further said.
Also read: Crude oil prices to cross $100? What experts predict after US, Israel attack on Iran

Profit booking to follow?

However, the impact may not be uniform. If there are any signs of diplomatic developments or indications of de-escalation, precious metals could see profit-taking after an initial spike of 3-6%, Trivedi said.

“We would expect the ongoing rally in US treasuries, oil, gold, and silver to extend. For India, the impact is typically magnified: higher crude oil prices widen the current account deficit, stoke domestic inflation, pressure the rupee, and could lead to FII outflows as global investors reduce risk exposure,” said Nachiketa Sawrikar, Fund Manager at Artha Bharat Global Multiplier Fund.

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Gold rose to near a one-month high on Friday, trading at $5,230.56 per ounce. US gold futures for April delivery settled at $5,247.90. The increase marked a 7.6% gain for February this year.

Silver also climbed, with spot prices rising 4.8% to $92.60 per ounce, recording a 9.7% monthly gain. Platinum increased to $2,350.34 per ounce, while palladium fell slightly to $1,775.31.

Bears likely to take control of Dalal Street

Indian capital markets are expected to see a gap-down opening tomorrow amid the rising uncertainties. Ashish Anand, Partner at Fortuna Asset Managers, said that financial markets will probably experience risk-off behaviour together with foreign FIIs possibly selling holdings while market prices experience intense and fast price changes during the day.
Will Sensex, Nifty react amid escalating Middle East war after Khamenei’s killing?

“Our advice to investors is simple: avoid panic-led decisions. Businesses need to implement volatility as a strategic tool, which should be handled with care. People who want to invest for the long term should keep their Systematic Investment Plans (SIP) running and distribute their money between reliable, strong, and fundamentally strong companies. A person needs to follow asset allocation rules, which include stocks, gold, and bonds, because these guidelines help through unpredictable market times. We believe wealth is built through discipline, not reaction and the key theme would be “patience over pace,” said Ashish Anand, Partner, Fortuna Asset Managers.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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China’s Wang Yi says attacks on Iran ’unacceptable’, urges ceasefire and talks

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China’s Wang Yi says attacks on Iran ’unacceptable’, urges ceasefire and talks


China’s Wang Yi says attacks on Iran ’unacceptable’, urges ceasefire and talks

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SunOpta surges 63% after InvestingPro Fair Value signal

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There is now an open path to a different Iran, EU’s Kallas says

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Defence, financials, discretionary in structural sweet spot: SAMCO MF’s Viraj Gandhi

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Defence, financials, discretionary in structural sweet spot: SAMCO MF's Viraj Gandhi
Despite elevated headline valuations, select sectors continue to offer compelling structural growth visibility. Viraj Gandhi, CEO of SAMCO Mutual Fund, believes defence, financials and pockets of consumer discretionary are positioned to benefit from policy support, balance sheet strength and evolving demand dynamics. He advocates a momentum-led, risk-calibrated approach in navigating the current market cycle.

Edited excerpts from a chat:

What is your assessment of the current market cycle, and where do you believe we stand in terms of valuations versus earnings visibility?

The Indian markets continue to appear expensive on a headline basis as they are trading above their median valuations. However, there are pockets of opportunities across sectors and market caps that could benefit from strong domestic demand and policy support. Earnings visibility has been improving for sectors such as financials, industrial products, auto, and select consumer categories, while pockets like defense, and infrastructure continue to offer long-term growth potential. External factors such as global trade tensions, tariff concerns and India being viewed as an Anti AI trade has weighed on the sentiment of the market. India’s pursuit of signing free trade agreements (FTAs) with different countries like the EU and New Zealand is creating new avenues for trade, investment, and market diversification, which could support earnings growth over the medium term. We believe that the market is currently in a phase where broad valuations may appear rich, but earnings visibility is improving, and pockets of opportunities continue to exist for investors who focus on quality, growth potential, and sectors positioned to benefit from both domestic and global trends.

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What stood out for you in the Q3 earnings season? Are you more hopeful of broad-based growth than before?

What stood out this Q3 earnings season was the divergence between underlying operating performance and the direction of earnings revisions. Corporate Earnings this quarter were broadly in line with expectations. Several consumption-linked and cyclical sector companies witnessed a growth in top-line with operating margins broadly stabilized or expanded and profit growth remained healthy. Banks and NBFCs showed signs of stability in asset quality and profitability metrics and industrial and defence names continued to benefit from execution momentum and policy tailwinds. Earnings downgrades in a couple of sectors were not driven purely by weak quarterly performance but due to a confluence of external factors such as currency volatility, commodity price swings, competitive intensity in certain segments, and global volatility. Management commentary indicated that domestic demand showed early signs of improvement following policy support, with autos and select consumer categories reflecting better business commentary. However, competitive intensity remains elevated in some sectors such as paints, consumer durables and telecom. IT services delivered a steady quarter with management commentary highlighting the concerns around AI related disruptions. Overall, the quarter reinforced a cautiously constructive view operationally, corporate India appears to be on a firmer footing as compared to previous quarters, but forward earnings expectations are still adjusting to a complex mix of macro, regulatory and competitive factors.

Which sectors appear structurally well-positioned over the next three to five years, and why?

Sectors that are beneficiary of secular trends and policy support given by the government appear structurally well positioned over the next three to five years. One prominent theme is defence. There is a multi-year potential for businesses in this sector due to rising government spending on defense equipment modernization, local manufacture, and indigenization. Strategic Partnerships with global players are improving technological access.


Furthermore, companies that are involved in the manufacturing of advanced electronics, aerospace components, and systems integration are well positioned to benefit from these structural tailwinds.
Pockets of consumer discretionary is another structurally attractive sector, reflecting changing preferences of the consumers as per capita income improves, urbanization and digital adoption encourages consumers to spend more on upgrading and preimmunizing their lifestyles.Banks and NBFCs are improving on asset quality, healthy credit growth, and increasing penetration across retail and corporate segments. The combination of robust balance sheets, policy support, and innovation in digital lending and payments provides a structural tailwind for earnings.

What is your outlook on financials, particularly in the context of credit growth, asset quality and margin sustainability?

The outlook on the financial sector remains constructive given improvement of credit growth and stable operating conditions. There are early signs that corporate lending is picking up which is expected to continue. Deposit growth continues to remain a challenge, and a higher reliance on bulk deposits could keep the cost of funds slightly elevated. Banks should be able to maintain their stable margins given the repricing of MCLR linked loans. Increased collection effectiveness and stress level mitigation, especially in unsecured portfolios, ensure that asset quality and credit costs continue to be controlled. Management commentary suggests that the second half of the year should be better, as growth is expected in both lending and controlled credit costs, which will improve their profitability. This creates a favorable backdrop for banks, balancing growth opportunities with prudent risk management.

How should investors approach the IT and digital ecosystem amid AI-led disruption and shifting global tech spending?

Investors should adopt a wait and watch approach in this space. AI is changing business models of traditional IT companies. The pace of AI-driven change is unprecedented in nature. Global hyperscalers are committing capex more than $600 billion towards AI related infrastructure, including data centers. As a result of these developments within the field of AI, companies are now investing more in automation and artificial intelligence as compared to traditional IT services. Companies who successfully implement AI stand to benefit from these changes, while others could lag, thereby impacting their revenue and profit margins. For Indian IT, the structural shift presents a dual challenge. Traditional service models face pressure as automation and generative AI reduce demand for conventional software maintenance. At the same time, India’s deep talent base and growing digital capabilities provide opportunities to support global clients in AI adoption.

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How are you currently positioning portfolios in terms of sector allocation, cash levels and market-cap bias?

We use momentum as a factor across our funds and allocate capital to sectors and companies based on relative price strength, growth in revenue, and accelerating earnings, while using absolute momentum to manage risk and protect capital. From a market-cap bias, positioning depends on the mandate of the scheme. In categories such as Flexicap, ELSS and Special Opportunities where the fund managers have flexibility to allocate across market caps, we have a slight bias towards mid and small caps. Sector-wise, we are positioned in BFSI, Autos, Pharma and Industrial Products where we believe the balance between growth prospects and risk is favourable. These sectors offer a mix of cyclical recovery, structural tailwinds and improving profitability dynamics. On the risk management side, we actively use hedging to reduce downside risk particularly during phases where markets remain sideways or uncertain. In addition, we maintain cash in certain portfolios where near-term risk-reward warrant a more cautious stance. Overall, our approach seeks to participate in momentum-led opportunities while maintaining flexibility and prudent risk control.

Do you think that the sell-off in smallcaps we saw in last 1.5 years is done and that we will see gradual recovery in next 2 quarters?

Given the results in Q3FY26, there are encouraging signs that the extended weakness in small-caps could be stabilizing. Across a broad set of companies, revenue and profitability growth is accelerating, with smaller companies showing stronger momentum. Earnings downgrades appear to be moderating, and we expect upgrades to gradually emerge as macro conditions stabilize and companies benefit from policy tailwinds. Supportive monetary conditions due to the rate cuts done by the Reserve Bank of India should improve corporate earnings and investor sentiment. While valuations are above median levels at the broader index level, there continue to be selective pockets within this space with solid fundamentals and clear growth drivers. The combination of the above-mentioned factors suggests that small-caps could see a gradual recovery in the coming quarters.

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Global reaction to the killing of Iran’s Khamenei

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Global reaction to the killing of Iran’s Khamenei


Global reaction to the killing of Iran’s Khamenei

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BTS to Stage One-Hour Free Comeback Performance at Gwanghwamun Square in Seoul on March 21

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Bands like BTS have helped transform K-pop into a truly global phenomenon

K-pop supergroup BTS will make a highly anticipated return to the stage with a free, one-hour comeback performance at Gwanghwamun Square in central Seoul on March 21, 2026, featuring premiere tracks from their upcoming fifth full-length album “Arirang” alongside beloved hits, their agency HYBE confirmed.

Titled “BTS The Comeback Live: Arirang,” the outdoor event at 8 p.m. KST will mark the septet’s first full-group live appearance in three years and nine months, following individual activities and military service commitments. The performance will stream live exclusively on Netflix to viewers in approximately 190 countries, directed by acclaimed Super Bowl halftime show producer Hamish Hamilton, amplifying its global reach.

Bands like BTS have helped transform K-pop into a truly global phenomenon
Bands like BTS have helped transform K-pop into a truly global phenomenon

HYBE emphasized that the approximately one-hour duration was a deliberate choice by the organizers to prioritize audience safety, crowd control, stage management, public transportation convenience and noise considerations in the bustling downtown location. “The performance time has been set at an appropriate duration to ensure safe and smooth operations,” HYBE stated in a release addressing online speculation.

Rumors had circulated suggesting the Seoul Metropolitan Government imposed the time limit, but both HYBE and city officials swiftly clarified that the decision originated with the agency. “The Seoul Metropolitan Government has never limited the Gwanghwamun Square concert to one hour,” HYBE said, adding that discussions from December 2025 onward included the one-hour request from HYBE. City authorities echoed this, noting they handle non-performance logistics like safety while the concert structure falls under the organizer’s responsibility.

The event has generated massive excitement since its announcement. Tickets for seated sections—limited and requiring registration via NOL Ticket—sold out almost instantly when sales opened, with systems crashing under the surge of over 100,000 simultaneous users at peak times. A special standing zone near the extended stage was allocated to 2,000 fans selected through a draw from those who preordered “Arirang.” Authorities expect up to 260,000 people to gather in and around the area, treating Gwanghwamun Square as a “virtual stadium” with 29 designated entry points, heavy police presence and traffic controls.

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To manage crowds, Seoul city is hosting separate fan events nearby for about 30,000 additional attendees. Gyeongbokgung Palace, adjacent to the square, will close entirely on March 21—a rare weekend shutdown for the historic Joseon Dynasty site—to facilitate security and flow.

The concert coincides with the March 20 release of “Arirang,” BTS’s first full-group album since 2022. The title draws from the traditional Korean folk song symbolizing resilience and longing, reflecting themes of reunion and cultural pride. The setlist will include new songs from the album plus fan favorites, offering a concise yet powerful showcase of BTS’s evolution.

BTS members—RM, Jin, Suga, J-Hope, Jimin, V and Jungkook—have expressed gratitude for the opportunity to reconnect with fans in such an iconic setting. Gwanghwamun Square, framed by the statue of King Sejong and the National Museum of Korea, holds symbolic weight as a historic public space for cultural and political gatherings.

The Netflix livestream positions the event as a global cultural moment, following BTS’s history of breaking streaming records and influencing soft power diplomacy. Economic projections estimate a significant boost for Seoul, potentially in the hundreds of millions of dollars from tourism, merchandise and related activities.

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Preparation has involved close coordination between HYBE, Seoul authorities, police and emergency services. Fans worldwide are already planning trips, with travel guides and eSIM recommendations circulating online for international ARMY (BTS’s fandom name).

As March 21 approaches, anticipation builds for what promises to be a landmark in K-pop history—a free, accessible return in the heart of Seoul, bridging BTS’s past triumphs with their next chapter before launching an 82-date world tour, “BTS WORLD TOUR ARIRANG,” starting in Goyang, South Korea, in April.

For now, the focus remains on safety and celebration. HYBE urged fans to follow official channels for updates, while city officials stressed cooperation to ensure a smooth, memorable night.

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Crude oil prices to cross $100? What experts predict after US, Israel attack on Iran

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Crude oil prices to cross $100? What experts predict after US, Israel attack on Iran
Khamenei’s death, which was confirmed by Iranian state media earlier today, triggered warnings about sharp retaliation from Tehran. US President Donald Trump announced that the 86-year-old leader had been killed on the first day of what he described as massive joint airstrikes.

Notably, more than 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The heavy missile strikes around the area have raised worries about supply constraints, leading to a spike in oil prices.

US WTI surged 3.19% to $67.29 per barrel, while Brent reached $72.87 on Friday. This came ahead of the significant rise in the Middle East’s war during the weekend, with rising worries around further escalations.

Barclays sees oil prices crossing $100:

UK’s second largest bank Barclays on Saturday increased its forecast for Brent Crude oil futures to $100 per barrel. “Oil markets might have to ‌face their ⁠worst ⁠fears on Monday. As things stand right now, we think Brent could hit $100 (per barrel), as the market grapples with the threat of a potential supply disruption amid a spiraling security situation in the Middle East,” the bank said in its report.The hike in forecast came after US and Israel’s initial strikes on Iran and the latter’s retaliation. Notably, the war has escalated significantly since then, with the death of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sending shockwaves across the globe.

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Iran is located along the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes, Ali Vaez, who heads the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, said in a post on X. “Even limited disruption could spike energy prices, fuel inflation, and rattle global markets,” he added.

Oil overeacts first, then adjusts’

Equirus Securities in its latest note highlighted that oil prices have repeatedly surged 25-300% during geopolitical crises, even when physical supply losses were temporary. “Pattern is consistent: Oil overreacts first, embeds a geopolitical risk premium, and then gradually adjusts as trade flows reroute & fundamentals reassert themselves. Real forecasting challenge is not predicting the initial spike but estimating how long disruption and embedded premium will persist,” it said.The pattern is consistent – oil overreacts first, embeds a geopolitical risk premium, and then gradually adjusts as trade flows reroute and fundamentals shine through, the brokerage said, adding that the real challenge is not predicting the initial spike but how long the disruption and the resulting premium will persist.

“At the start of the Russia–Ukraine war, markets assumed a prolonged conflict would keep crude structurally above $100/bbl & push OMCs to distressed valuations. Had one known the war would still be ongoing 4 years later, triple-digit oil would have seemed inevitable. Instead, what happened in reality, after briefly spiking above $120/bbl, prices retraced as flows adjusted, Russian barrels were rerouted, & fundamentals reasserted themselves. Today, crude trades closer to fundamentals & OMCs are roughly triple their crisis-implied lows,” Equirus Securities further said.

If escalation threatens the key Strait of Hormuz, premium becomes structural rather than proportional, the brokerage said. “Even partial disruption risk could embed a $20–$40/bbl geopolitical premium, reopening a pathway toward $95–$110+, well beyond mechanical impact of Iran’s barrels alone,” it added.

For India, which relies heavily on imported crude oil, the immediate consequence has been rising inflationary pressure triggered by higher energy prices, said Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist at Infomerics Ratings. “Elevated import costs are likely to widen the current account deficit and further strain the fiscal deficit through increased subsidy obligations,” he added.

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Rising Middle East tensions raise risks of shipping disruptions, higher global freight and insurance costs, even without a full blockade, said Madhavi Arora, Chief Economist at Emkay Global Institutional Equities. “As per our preliminary checks, India’s crude and LNG supplies are largely intact, and India has buffers in the form of diversified imports, strategic reserves and operational stocks, helping absorb short-term shocks,” the analyst added.

“In the event of tensions in the Middle East continuing, higher oil prices will directly feed into the input costs and macro indicators. If however the situation normalizes with OPEC+ also indicating a sharp output increase (0.4mb/d), and oil doesn’t spike and fall below $70/bbl, the macro impact could be contained,” Arora further said.

Back on Dalal Street…

The shares of oil marketing companies (OMC) will remain in focus tomorrow, amid the expected rise in crude oil prices. The shares of oil refineries will likely see an uptick, mirroring the rise in oil prices.

Tyre and paint stocks will also be a key monitorable tomorrow, as crude oil is a key raw material source for both paint and tyre companies because many of their inputs are petroleum-based derivatives.
Also read: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/will-sensex-nifty-react-amid-escalating-middle-east-war-after-khameneis-killing/articleshow/128909536.cms

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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