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Crude oil prices to cross $100? What experts predict after US, Israel attack on Iran

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Crude oil prices to cross $100? What experts predict after US, Israel attack on Iran
Khamenei’s death, which was confirmed by Iranian state media earlier today, triggered warnings about sharp retaliation from Tehran. US President Donald Trump announced that the 86-year-old leader had been killed on the first day of what he described as massive joint airstrikes.

Notably, more than 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The heavy missile strikes around the area have raised worries about supply constraints, leading to a spike in oil prices.

US WTI surged 3.19% to $67.29 per barrel, while Brent reached $72.87 on Friday. This came ahead of the significant rise in the Middle East’s war during the weekend, with rising worries around further escalations.

Barclays sees oil prices crossing $100:

UK’s second largest bank Barclays on Saturday increased its forecast for Brent Crude oil futures to $100 per barrel. “Oil markets might have to ‌face their ⁠worst ⁠fears on Monday. As things stand right now, we think Brent could hit $100 (per barrel), as the market grapples with the threat of a potential supply disruption amid a spiraling security situation in the Middle East,” the bank said in its report.The hike in forecast came after US and Israel’s initial strikes on Iran and the latter’s retaliation. Notably, the war has escalated significantly since then, with the death of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sending shockwaves across the globe.

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Iran is located along the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes, Ali Vaez, who heads the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, said in a post on X. “Even limited disruption could spike energy prices, fuel inflation, and rattle global markets,” he added.

Oil overeacts first, then adjusts’

Equirus Securities in its latest note highlighted that oil prices have repeatedly surged 25-300% during geopolitical crises, even when physical supply losses were temporary. “Pattern is consistent: Oil overreacts first, embeds a geopolitical risk premium, and then gradually adjusts as trade flows reroute & fundamentals reassert themselves. Real forecasting challenge is not predicting the initial spike but estimating how long disruption and embedded premium will persist,” it said.The pattern is consistent – oil overreacts first, embeds a geopolitical risk premium, and then gradually adjusts as trade flows reroute and fundamentals shine through, the brokerage said, adding that the real challenge is not predicting the initial spike but how long the disruption and the resulting premium will persist.

“At the start of the Russia–Ukraine war, markets assumed a prolonged conflict would keep crude structurally above $100/bbl & push OMCs to distressed valuations. Had one known the war would still be ongoing 4 years later, triple-digit oil would have seemed inevitable. Instead, what happened in reality, after briefly spiking above $120/bbl, prices retraced as flows adjusted, Russian barrels were rerouted, & fundamentals reasserted themselves. Today, crude trades closer to fundamentals & OMCs are roughly triple their crisis-implied lows,” Equirus Securities further said.

If escalation threatens the key Strait of Hormuz, premium becomes structural rather than proportional, the brokerage said. “Even partial disruption risk could embed a $20–$40/bbl geopolitical premium, reopening a pathway toward $95–$110+, well beyond mechanical impact of Iran’s barrels alone,” it added.

For India, which relies heavily on imported crude oil, the immediate consequence has been rising inflationary pressure triggered by higher energy prices, said Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist at Infomerics Ratings. “Elevated import costs are likely to widen the current account deficit and further strain the fiscal deficit through increased subsidy obligations,” he added.

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Rising Middle East tensions raise risks of shipping disruptions, higher global freight and insurance costs, even without a full blockade, said Madhavi Arora, Chief Economist at Emkay Global Institutional Equities. “As per our preliminary checks, India’s crude and LNG supplies are largely intact, and India has buffers in the form of diversified imports, strategic reserves and operational stocks, helping absorb short-term shocks,” the analyst added.

“In the event of tensions in the Middle East continuing, higher oil prices will directly feed into the input costs and macro indicators. If however the situation normalizes with OPEC+ also indicating a sharp output increase (0.4mb/d), and oil doesn’t spike and fall below $70/bbl, the macro impact could be contained,” Arora further said.

Back on Dalal Street…

The shares of oil marketing companies (OMC) will remain in focus tomorrow, amid the expected rise in crude oil prices. The shares of oil refineries will likely see an uptick, mirroring the rise in oil prices.

Tyre and paint stocks will also be a key monitorable tomorrow, as crude oil is a key raw material source for both paint and tyre companies because many of their inputs are petroleum-based derivatives.
Also read: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/will-sensex-nifty-react-amid-escalating-middle-east-war-after-khameneis-killing/articleshow/128909536.cms

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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(VIDEO) Iran Appoints Ayatollah Alireza Arafi to Leadership Following Death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

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Dubai International Airport

Iran’s political establishment moved swiftly Sunday to stabilize the regime after the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a joint U.S.-Israeli military operation, appointing senior cleric Ayatollah Alireza Arafi as the jurist member of a temporary Leadership Council tasked with fulfilling the supreme leader’s duties during the transition.

Ayatollah Alireza Arafi

The Expediency Discernment Council elected Arafi to the three-member interim body, which also includes President Masoud Pezeshkian and Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, according to state media reports from ISNA and IRNA. The council, formed under Article 111 of Iran’s constitution, will oversee state affairs until the Assembly of Experts—an 88-member clerical body—selects a permanent successor.

Khamenei, 86, who had ruled Iran since 1989, was killed late Saturday in airstrikes on Tehran as part of an ongoing U.S.-Israeli campaign targeting key regime figures and infrastructure. Iranian state television confirmed his death early Sunday, prompting 40 days of national mourning and vows of revenge from officials. President Pezeshkian condemned the strike as “a great crime” and pledged retaliation as a “legitimate right and duty.”

The appointment of Arafi, a 67-year-old cleric and close confidant of the late supreme leader, signals an emphasis on institutional continuity amid escalating conflict. Arafi serves as a member of the powerful Guardian Council, which vets legislation and election candidates, and heads Iran’s nationwide Islamic seminary system. He is also deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts and previously led Al-Mustafa International University, an institution focused on exporting revolutionary ideology through clerical training.

Analysts describe Arafi as a bureaucratic insider with strong ties to the clerical establishment rather than a hardline military figure or populist. His selection to the interim council positions him prominently in the succession process, though the final decision rests with the Assembly of Experts, which could convene in the coming days or weeks.

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The Leadership Council’s formation came hours after Khamenei’s death was announced, with expediency council spokesman Mohsen Dehnavi confirming Arafi’s election via a post on X. The body is expected to manage critical functions, including military command oversight and foreign policy decisions, while avoiding major constitutional changes during the interim period.

The strikes that killed Khamenei marked a dramatic escalation in the long-running shadow war between Iran, the United States and Israel. U.S. President Donald Trump indicated on Truth Social that the operation, supported by Israel, targeted the supreme leader as part of efforts to confront the regime’s nuclear ambitions and regional proxy activities. Israel has continued airstrikes on Tehran and other sites Sunday, with reports of renewed attacks “in the heart of the capital.”

Iranian officials have framed Khamenei’s killing as an act of “state terrorism,” with state media broadcasting images of mourning crowds in Tehran and other cities. A state television presenter was seen crying while reading the official announcement of the supreme leader’s martyrdom.

The transition occurs against a backdrop of heightened regional tensions. Iran-backed militias in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen have threatened reprisals, while Russia condemned the killing as a “cynical murder” violating international norms. Iraq announced three days of mourning in solidarity.

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Under Iran’s system, the supreme leader holds ultimate authority over the armed forces, judiciary and key policy areas, making the interim council’s role crucial for maintaining regime cohesion. The Assembly of Experts, last elected in 2024, is dominated by hardliners vetted by the Guardian Council—Arafi’s own body—raising expectations that the successor will align with the current ideological framework.

Potential long-term candidates include figures like Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader’s son, though he lacks broad clerical credentials. Other names floated in pre-crisis speculation include Arafi himself, given his institutional leverage, and judiciary head Mohseni Ejei, though the latter’s status remains unconfirmed amid conflicting reports.

Arafi’s background includes fluency in Arabic and English, along with administrative experience that experts say could help navigate the crisis. His appointment to senior roles under Khamenei demonstrated trust in his loyalty and competence, according to Middle East Institute analysis.

As fighting continues, the Leadership Council faces immediate challenges: coordinating defenses against further strikes, managing public outrage and ensuring IRGC and Basij forces remain unified. Arafi, who has headed aspects of the Basij paramilitary in past roles, may play a key part in internal security.

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The regime has emphasized stability, with security chief Ali Larijani pledging a swift transition to demonstrate resilience. Yet the unprecedented nature of a supreme leader’s assassination in wartime raises questions about long-term viability, with some analysts warning of potential factional struggles or public unrest.

For now, the focus remains on the interim council’s leadership. Arafi’s elevation positions a seasoned clerical administrator at the center of Iran’s response to what state media calls a “Zionist-American conspiracy.”

As mourning rituals begin and military exchanges persist, the world watches to see whether the Islamic Republic can weather the loss of its longest-serving leader since the 1979 revolution.

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(VIDEO) LeBron James Joins Kobe Bryant as Second Player in Lakers History to Make 1,000 3-Pointers

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Arman Tsarukyan

LeBron James etched his name deeper into Los Angeles Lakers lore Saturday night, becoming just the second player in franchise history to make 1,000 three-pointers while wearing the purple and gold, joining the late Kobe Bryant in an exclusive club during a dominant 129-101 road victory over the Golden State Warriors.

LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers talks with a teammate during a game against the Chicago Bulls at the United Center on March 12, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois.
LeBron James

The milestone came early in the first quarter at Chase Center when James drilled his second three-pointer of the game—a step-back jumper from the wing at the five-minute mark—pushing his Lakers total to 1,000. He entered the contest with 998 made threes as a Laker and finished the night with 1,002 after going 4-for-6 from beyond the arc, including his first four attempts.

The 41-year-old superstar joined Bryant, who holds the franchise record with 1,827 career three-pointers made over his 20 seasons with the team. Derek Fisher ranks third with 846, followed by Nick Van Exel (750) and Byron Scott (595), per Lakers statistics.

James’ hot start from deep set the tone for the Lakers (35-24), who snapped a three-game losing streak and improved their playoff positioning in the Western Conference. Luka Dončić led the way with 26 points, including four three-pointers, while adding six rebounds and eight assists in a commanding performance on his birthday. Austin Reaves contributed 18 points, and the bench provided depth with Luke Kennard (16) and Jake LaRavia (15).

James finished with 22 points on 7-of-13 shooting, seven rebounds, nine assists and one steal in 28 efficient minutes. Coach J.J. Redick emptied the bench in the fourth quarter as the lead ballooned to as many as 26 points in the third.

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The accomplishment underscores James’ evolution as a shooter since joining the Lakers in 2018. Known earlier in his career for driving to the rim and mid-range mastery, he has adapted his game to the modern NBA’s emphasis on spacing and perimeter shooting. His career three-point total stands at 2,618, with 1,251 made during his Cleveland Cavaliers tenure—making him the first player in NBA history to record 1,000+ threes with multiple franchises.

Saturday’s game highlighted James’ continued elite play late in his 23rd season. Despite turning 41 in December, he averages 21.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 1.1 steals per game while shooting 49.8% from the field, though his three-point percentage sits at 29.9% this season. The milestone three came amid a strong shooting night that helped the Lakers shoot 12-of-22 from deep overall.

The Warriors (31-29) struggled defensively, particularly against the Lakers’ ball movement and transition opportunities. Golden State, missing key pieces due to injuries and roster changes, never mounted a serious challenge after falling behind early.

Postgame, James reflected on the achievement in brief comments to reporters, crediting teammates for creating open looks and acknowledging Bryant’s enduring impact on the franchise.

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“It’s special to be in that conversation with Kobe,” James said. “He set the standard here, and to reach this with the Lakers means a lot after everything we’ve been through as a group.”

The feat drew widespread praise across social media and from NBA circles. Former players, analysts and fans highlighted the rarity of a player sustaining high-level production into his 40s while adding new dimensions to his game. Bryant’s widow, Vanessa Bryant, and family members were among those offering congratulations online, underscoring the respect between the two icons despite their different eras.

For the Lakers, the win provided a much-needed boost as they push toward the postseason. With 23 games remaining, the team sits firmly in playoff contention, bolstered by James’ leadership and veteran presence alongside younger talents like Dončić and Reaves.

The milestone also reignites debates about James’ place in the all-time greats conversation. While his scoring titles, championships and records abound, adding franchise-specific feats with the Lakers solidifies his legacy in Los Angeles, where he has won one championship (2020) and consistently performed at an All-NBA level.

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As the season progresses, James shows no signs of slowing. With the three-point milestone secured, attention turns to other potential records, including climbing higher on the Lakers’ all-time scoring list—he already ranks among the top in franchise history—and continuing to mentor the next generation.

Saturday’s performance was a reminder of why James remains one of the league’s most dominant forces. In a game that featured fireworks from deep, his historic three stood out as a quiet yet profound addition to an already storied career.

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President Trump is trying to throw a lifeline to coal, the once-dominant fuel source for the U.S. power grid that has been in steep decline for more than 15 years. His efforts, combined with the boom in construction of power-hungry artificial-intelligence data centers, could keep coal plants that were once slated for retirement operating years longer than expected.

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(VIDEO) Dubai International Airport Shut Down Amid Escalating US-Israel-Iran Conflict

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A picture taken on January 24, 2022 shows Abu Dhabi, capital of the UAE which has come again under attack by Yemen's Huthi rebels

Dubai International Airport (DXB), the world’s busiest hub for international passengers, remained completely closed Sunday with all flight operations suspended until further notice as the United Arab Emirates grappled with the fallout from Iranian retaliatory missile and drone strikes following joint U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Dubai International Airport

Dubai Airports, the operator of DXB and the secondary Dubai World Central–Al Maktoum International Airport (DWC), confirmed in an official statement that “all flight operations at Dubai International (DXB) and Dubai World Central – Al Maktoum International (DWC) are suspended until further notice.” Passengers were strongly advised not to travel to the airports and to contact their airlines directly for updates. The closure stemmed from UAE airspace restrictions imposed amid the rapidly escalating regional conflict.

The shutdown followed an overnight incident early Saturday that caused minor damage to a concourse at DXB, according to the Dubai Media Office. Four airport staff members sustained injuries, which were described as non-life-threatening, and received prompt medical attention. Emergency response teams quickly contained the situation, and most terminals had already been cleared of passengers under pre-existing contingency plans due to the heightened security environment.

Iranian attacks targeted multiple sites across the Gulf, including Dubai’s iconic Burj Al Arab hotel, where debris from intercepted missiles sparked a minor fire on the outer facade, and Palm Jumeirah island, where smoke plumes were visible. Similar incidents affected Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi, where one person was killed and seven injured in a drone strike. Blasts were reported in Doha, Qatar, and other Gulf locations, contributing to widespread airspace closures across the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and beyond.

Major airlines bore the brunt of the disruptions. Emirates, the flagship carrier based at DXB and one of the world’s largest long-haul operators, extended its suspension of all flights to and from Dubai until 3 p.m. UAE time (11 a.m. GMT) on Monday, March 2. The airline urged affected passengers to check emirates.com for rebooking options or refunds, with flexibility offered for travel booked through March 5. Low-cost carrier flydubai similarly halted operations until the same deadline, while Etihad Airways suspended services to and from Abu Dhabi until early Monday.

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Flight tracking data painted a stark picture of the chaos. FlightAware reported more than 19,000 global delays linked to the crisis, while Flightradar24 noted over 3,400 cancellations on Sunday alone across seven key Middle Eastern airports, including DXB, DWC, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Sharjah, Kuwait and Bahrain. The ripple effects stranded tens of thousands of travelers, with some reports estimating over 20,000 affected in Dubai alone. The UAE’s General Civil Aviation Authority activated support measures, including accelerated rescheduling, additional ground resources and welfare assistance such as hotel accommodations and meals for impacted passengers.

The crisis traces back to U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets late Friday and early Saturday, which eliminated Khamenei and several top officials, prompting Iran’s vow of revenge. Iranian missiles and drones targeted U.S. interests, Israeli sites and Gulf allies perceived as supporting the attacks. The UAE, a key U.S. partner with normalized ties to Israel, found itself in the crossfire despite efforts to maintain neutrality in public statements.

Travelers faced severe hardships. Indian badminton star PV Sindhu reported being stranded at DXB while en route to a tournament in England, highlighting the personal toll. Many passengers slept on terminal floors or sought shelter in nearby hotels as airlines scrambled to reroute or cancel services. European carriers like Lufthansa, KLM and others extended suspensions through the weekend and into the coming week, while global advisories warned against travel over the Middle East.

Dubai’s status as a premier global transit point—handling over 90 million passengers annually pre-crisis and connecting to more than 280 destinations—amplified the impact. The airport’s closure disrupted not just regional travel but long-haul routes between Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas that rely on DXB for connections.

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As of Sunday evening local time, no reopening timeline had been announced. Dubai Airports emphasized close monitoring of the situation and promised updates through official channels. Authorities urged calm and cooperation, with security forces on high alert across the emirate. High-rise residents, including those in the Burj Khalifa, were moved to underground shelters during peak threat periods.

The aviation shutdown compounds broader economic concerns for the UAE, a tourism and trade powerhouse. With Jebel Ali Port also reporting minor incidents from debris, logistics chains faced additional strain. International reactions varied, with some nations condemning the escalation while others called for de-escalation to restore stability.

For now, DXB stands eerily quiet—a stark contrast to its usual bustle of millions of travelers. As the conflict shows no immediate signs of abating, the world’s aviation networks brace for prolonged disruptions, with Dubai at the epicenter of the storm.

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