The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency published its proposed rulemaking to regulate stablecoins under the GENIUS Act, sparking questions about whether it was banning yield payouts from crypto companies.

You’re reading State of Crypto, a CoinDesk newsletter looking at the intersection of cryptocurrency and government. Click here to sign up for future editions.

The narrative

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), a federal banking regulator, published a notice of proposed rulemaking pursuant to the GENIUS Act explaining how it might oversee stablecoins. Most of it appears straightforward, but the portion addressing yield seems ambiguous, and possibly even controversial.

Why it matters

The OCC published its first take at rulemaking under the GENIUS Act, the first step toward turning the 2025 law into actual, applicable rules for crypto companies to abide by. Controversially, it seems to propose setting up new restrictions around how stablecoin issuers and their partners can offer yield payments to end users.

Breaking it down

Just to get this out of the way: Most of this 376-page proposal seems fairly straightforward. Provisions address custody controls, capital requirements and the other prosaic regulatory details that one would expect from a proposal seeking to govern the U.S. stablecoin sector. This newsletter may touch on those details in a future edition.

The most controversial part appears to be the sections addressing stablecoin yield and how issuers and affiliates can handle those. According to multiple people tracking this process, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss an active rulemaking proposal candidly, these sections also seem to be ambiguous. One individual said the OCC seemed to be claiming the authority to ban third parties from offering yield from holding stablecoins, exceeding its authority in the process. But two others said the proposal fit the language of the law defined in GENIUS, and that they had no concerns about yield being banned unilaterally.

What the provisions might do is place restrictions on how stablecoin issuers’ partner companies can pay out interest on stablecoin deposits, the yield we’ve been referring to here.

“[The] proposed [section] provides that permitted payment stablecoin issuers must not pay the holder of any payment stablecoin any form of interest or yield (whether in cash, tokens, or other consideration) solely in connection with holding, use, or retention of such payment stablecoin,” the proposal said. “The OCC understands that issuers could attempt to make prohibited payments of interest or yield to payment stablecoins holders through arrangements with third parties.”

The section went on to list some of these third-party relationships but said “it would not be possible to identify in detail all, or even most, of the potential arrangements.”

However, the proposal said that the OCC would presume these payments are solely for yield purposes if there was a contract to that effect and third parties would be defined as entities paying yield as a service.

Companies would be able to push back and “rebut the presumption” if they have evidence their contractual relationship does not meet those terms, the proposal said.

Companies like Coinbase and Circle might have to tweak the terms of their relationship to abide by the terms of the proposal, as might companies like PayPal and Paxos, the issuer of PayPal’s PYUSD stablecoin, two people said about this section.

Matthew Sigal, head of digital assets research at VanEck, also shared this view, saying on X (formerly Twitter) that companies like Coinbase would have to make their agreements look more like loyalty programs than interest payments.

One confusing part about the proposal, one individual said, is in the definition of an “affiliate.” A company could be an issuer or an affiliate, where affiliates may not be able to issue yield solely for holding deposits, but the proposal appears to create a third category based on ownership stakes. If an issuer has a 25% or greater stake in a third-party, they would not be able to offer payments on yield, which might open the door for third-parties that don’t have such ownership stake concerns.

Similarly, the wording addressing “white-label relationships” may bar yield payments, but it would depend on the terms of the contract between the issuer and the company associated with the stablecoin, the person said. This is the sort of setup PayPal and Paxos have.

To further add to the confusion, stablecoin yield is also one of the issues holding up the advancement of the market structure legislation that the crypto industry continues to hope for. Two people said the OCC proposal might mean that Congress does not need to address yield in the market structure bill at all, but others said there is zero chance Congress will skip over this portion of the bill.

Yield isn’t the only issue holding up the bill — ethics provisions concerning President Donald Trump and his family’s crypto activities, as well as anti-money laundering and know-your-customer rules, still need to be worked out — but if the market structure bill becomes law, it will again reshape how stablecoins can operate in the U.S.

As a result, it is likely that this part of the OCC proposal will not be implemented as-is.

If the market structure bill does become law before the OCC can finalize its rules, the regulator will have to issue an interim proposal to remain compliant with the new law. Otherwise, there will be a whole separate rulemaking process later down the line.

On the market structure bill itself, individuals said that there is some updated draft language circulating among lawmakers but there is no deal between the banking industry and the crypto industry yet.

This week

• There are no government hearings or meetings scheduled as of press time addressing crypto-related issues.

If you’ve got thoughts or questions on what I should discuss next week or any other feedback you’d like to share, feel free to email me at [email protected] or find me on Bluesky @nikhileshde.bsky.social.

You can also join the group conversation on Telegram.

See ya’ll next week!

Bitcoin’s path to a market bottom could come as soon as next month, if the gold-denominated bitcoin price is any indication, according to Rony Szuster, Head of Research at the largest Brazilian crypto exchange, Mercado Bitcoin.

In dollar terms, the most recent peak occurred in October 2025 at about $126,000. If the current cycle follows past patterns, the downturn could extend into late 2026, Szuster wrote in a report shared with CoinDesk.

But when priced in gold, the timeline shifts. Bitcoin reached its high against gold in January 2025. Applying the same 12- to 13-month pattern would place a potential bottom around February 2026, with a recovery possibly beginning in March.

The divergence reflects broader macro forces.

Since the start of Donald Trump’s new mandate, markets have faced aggressive trade tariffs, domestic institutional disputes in the U.S., and rising tensions with China and Iran. Rising tensions with the latter have since resulted in ongoing military conflict.

Global uncertainty, measured via the World Uncertainty Index, has exploded as a result. Gold benefited from that shift, rising more than 80% over the past year to $5,280. As capital rotated into bullion, bitcoin weakened against it sooner than it did against the dollar, Mercado Bitcoin’s analyst wrote.

Exchange-traded funds have also added pressure. Since November, about $7.8 billion has flowed out of spot bitcoin ETFs, roughly 12% of the $61.6 billion total.

However, this fear-driven sell-off only paints part of the picture.

While reactive capital is fleeing bitcoin, large-scale investors or “whales” are treating the downturn as an accumulation zone, the report adds, pointing to Abu Dhabi’s major investment firms Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments adding in spot bitcoin ETF exposure in mid-February.

Against this backdrop, Szuster calls for investors to build their positions intelligently and leverage a dollar-cost averaging strategy to take advantage of current market fear and avoid timing issues.

“Historically, buying during periods of fear has been more effective than buying during euphoria,” he wrote. “Does this mean it’s already the bottom? No. But it means that, statistically, we are in the zone where the best average prices are usually built.”

The landscape around Ethereum is even worse, with the red streak going for six months.

The positive start to 2026 was quickly erased, and bitcoin began to lose value rapidly, reaching new local lows of $60,000 in early February.

Although it recovered some ground since those 15-month lows, it still ended the month in the red with a painful double-digit decline. This made it five in a row.

February Deep in Red As Well

It was almost impossible to imagine the current situation in early October. At the time, bitcoin’s price was riding high, charting fresh peaks at over $126,000, and the community was anticipating even more records during the so-called ‘Uptober.’ The reality, though, was far different and brutal.

On October 10, the cryptocurrency market experienced its worst single-day liquidation event, with more than $19 billion wrecked as prices tumbled. As many analysts claimed after that pivotal day, something in the market’s structure broke, and it was never the same.

Bitcoin started to chart frequent losses and dumped to a five-digit price territory by the end of the year. It ended 2025 in the red, making it the first post-halving year to do so. January began on the right foot, but the rejection at $98,000 resulted in another nosedive. Thus, January saw losses of just over 10%.

Another massive crash occurred in early February, pushing bitcoin south to its lowest level since October 2024 at $60,000. Although it rebounded and finished February at around $65,000-$66,000, it still ended the month with a 15% decline. This made it the fifth consecutive month in the red for the first time since 2018.

Ethereum Goes a Step Further

Data from Cryptorank shows that the landscape around the world’s largest altcoin is even more painful. ETH has been in the red for six months in a row. Moreover, it has been in the green only three out of the past 15 months.

You may also like:

January and February were quite violent, with a 17.7% decline during the first month of the year and a whopping 19.6% drop in the second. This is the worst monthly streak for ETH since 2018, when it was in the red for seven consecutive months.

ETH is currently fighting to stay above $2,000 after dipping below that level on numerous occasions in the past month.

Another high-profile Ponzhi scheme has been brought to light, with the main character facing up to 30 years in jail.

The United States Department of Justice (DOJ) has arrested Christopher Alexander Delgado, the 34-year-old executive of the purported venture capital firm, Goliath Ventures, for allegedly perpetrating a crypto Ponzi scheme that defrauded investors of roughly $328 million.

According to a press release from the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Middle District of Florida, Delgado was the president and CEO of Goliath Ventures, formerly called Gen-Z Venture Firm.

DOJ Arrests Man Behind $328M Ponzi

The complaint filed against Delgado accused him of wire fraud and money laundering. The former CEO ran the scheme from January 2023 through January 2026, claiming to invest victims’ funds in crypto liquidity pools.

Delgado promised investors monthly returns while soliciting substantial investments. His victims came from charitable sponsorships, luxury events, professional marketing materials, and personal referrals. To make the scheme appear legitimate, the former Goliath president made some monthly payments to investors as purported returns.

While claiming to invest victims’ funds in crypto protocols, Delgado ran Goliath as a classic Ponzi scheme. He used funds contributed by new investors to pay existing clients, a method that enabled him to garner over $328 million from victims. Besides returning capital to those who requested it, Goliath also used victims’ funds to host lavish business gatherings and holiday parties and to pay for luxury travel accommodations.

Additionally, Delgado spent between $1.15 million and $8.5 million to acquire four residential properties, all of which were purchased with victims’ funds.

Delgado Still Under Investigation

While Delgado awaits trial, the U.S. government has asked Goliath victims to reach out for appropriate proceedings under the Crime Victims’ Rights Act.

You may also like:

The case is still under investigation by the Homeland Security Investigations and the Internal Revenue Service Criminal Investigation. If found guilty of all the charges, Delgado faces a maximum sentence of 30 years in federal prison.

Meanwhile, he is not the only company executive recently apprehended for running a crypto Ponzi scheme. As reported last week by CryptoPotato, a U.S. court sentenced Ramil Ventura Palafox, CEO of Praetorian Group International (PGI), to 20 years behind bars for defrauding at least 90,000 investors of $200 million through a Bitcoin-based Ponzi scheme. The 61-year-old Palafox falsely claimed PGI was involved in Bitcoin trading while defrauding investors.

The answers from the popular AI chatbot might be quite shocking to some.

The US and Israel carried out a rapid and violent military operation in Iran on February 28, which, according to reports, killed its Supreme Leader.

Iranian forces already retaliated against several countries in the region, and these developments led to significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market during the weekend.

With Trump warning that the military operation could continue further if Iran doesn’t back down, the question now is whether more fluctuations will ensue and in which direction. In this article, we focused on XRP and asked ChatGPT about its take on the matter.

Initial Shock

OpenAI’s solution also brought up the initial geopolitical shock, which is expected to harm most financial assets, especially risk-on options like altcoins, as investors tend to de-risk.

“That means moving money out of volatile assets (like cryptocurrencies) and into traditional safe havens such as gold or government bonds. This has already happened in recent responses to the US-Iran conflict. Historically, crypto markets don’t always behave like safe havens. Research on past conflicts (like Russia-Ukraine) shows cryptocurrencies often act as high-beta speculative assets, experiencing more volatility rather than absorbing risk like gold.”

Consequently, ChatGPT said the bearish pressure increases immediately for altcoins such as XRP. It added that institutional liquidity is typically withdrawn in similar uncertainty, and Ripple’s cross-border token could see new local lows of under $1.00. Recall that the asset has not traded below that level for a year and a half, but it could drop if the situation worsens in the following days.

Chances for a Rally?

Although it dismissed the chances for a quick rally given the aforementioned shock, ChatGPT noted that it’s not impossible for the mid- to long-term. To do so, though, at least one of the following three factors needs to happen.

• Demand for digital assets as a store of value is increasing
• Sharp reversal for risk-on assets, such as larger-cap altcoins.
• Major regulatory or adoption news tailored for XRP

“In other words, XRP could surge if the market’s focus shifts away from war risk toward crypto fundamentals.”

Overall, though, ChatGPT believes the short-term bias (in the first few weeks) will remain bearish, but once the shock passes or the geopolitical tensions ease, XRP could be on the verge of a breakout rally.

You may also like:

As CME gold futures pause for weekend trading, on-chain markets for tokenized gold have emerged as the dominant venue for price discovery. With traditional futures offline for roughly 25 hours, tokenized assets that live on blockchain networks are providing reference prices during the gap, according to Iggy Ioppe, the chief investment officer at Theo, a liquidity infrastructure firm. He notes that weekend price formation tends to occur in on-chain venues, and that reopenings often align with moves seen during the next trading day on the traditional exchange. The trend underscores how tokenized gold complements rather than replaces physical bullion holdings.

Key takeaways

• Weekend price discovery for gold largely shifts to on-chain markets, driven by the closure of CME futures from Friday evening through Sunday evening.
• Tokenized gold’s market capitalization expanded to about $4.4 billion, rising 177% year over year and supported by more than 115,000 wallet holders.
• 2025 tokenized-gold volume reached roughly $178 billion, with fourth-quarter activity peaking above $126 billion, making it one of the most traded bullion proxies behind a leading ETF.
• Market makers and cross-venue liquidity providers dominate on-chain trading, complemented by crypto-native macro traders using tokenized gold for exposure, collateral, and hedging during macro or geopolitical stress.
• Liquidity gaps, regulatory fragmentation, and custody rules remain primary obstacles to broader institutional adoption, with a parallel evolution expected alongside traditional gold products.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH, $PAXG, $XAUt, $GLD

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Neutral. Weekend on-chain activity provides a reference that often feeds into the next regular session, without implying immediate directional bets.

Market context: The rise of 24/7 on-chain markets for tokenized gold sits within a broader trend toward continuous liquidity pools and cross-venue arbitrage, even as traditional markets reopen and liquidity reorganizes around established benchmarks.

Why it matters

The weekend dynamics of tokenized gold reflect a maturation of the asset class that sits between crypto markets and traditional commodities. When CME futures halt trading, on-chain platforms step in to offer continuous price formation for bullion-like exposures. This continuity matters for institutions and traders who seek to manage gap risk through perpetual access to price signals rather than relying solely on once-a-day settlement venues.

Market participants emphasize that tokenized gold is not a wholesale substitute for physical gold or ETF products but a parallel channel that can complement risk management, collateralization, and yield strategies. The leadership role of liquidity providers and cross-venue traders highlights how on-chain markets can absorb large blocks without triggering abrupt dislocations, a feature particularly valuable during periods of geopolitical or macroeconomic uncertainty.

From a macro perspective, tokenized gold is increasingly viewed as a tool for exposure to bullion prices that integrates with crypto and DeFi ecosystems. As institutions examine regulatory clarity and custody solutions, the sector’s growth underscores a broader appetite for diversified, bullion-linked on-chain assets that can operate around the clock. In this sense, tokenized gold broadens the toolkit for risk-off strategies and hedging in an environment where traditional markets may experience abrupt sentiment shifts.

What to watch next

• Monitor weekend-to-weekend price formation: whether on-chain moves continue to forecast or diverge from CME reopenings on Sundays and Mondays.
• Regulatory progress across jurisdictions: how custody, accounting, and cross-border rules evolve to support institutional participation in tokenized-gold markets.
• Liquidity enhancement efforts: shifts in cross-venue liquidity provision and the development of standardized settlement and reporting for tokenized bullion.
• Adoption by macro desks and risk teams: whether banks and asset managers begin incorporating tokenized gold into collateral and hedging frameworks.
• Volume and wallet growth signals: continued tracking of 2025 volume trends and the pace of new wallet creation as a proxy for participation.

Sources & verification

• Tokenized gold market expansion and metric highlights: tokenized gold drives RWA growth 2025 (link in source text)
• PAX Gold price index and on-chain price-formation insights: pax-gold price index (link in source text)
• On-chain weekend price discovery and market structure discussions: bitcoin price slump versus gold’s gains highlights evolving crypto market (link in source text)
• Geopolitical risk and safe-haven dynamics influencing gold and crypto (link in source text)
• Tokenization explainer and related market context: tokenization explained (link in source text)

What the market is saying about tokenized gold

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) traded with caution over the weekend as headlines moved markets, while tokenized gold assets provided continuous reference points for bullion-like exposure. The on-chain activity around PAX Gold (CRYPTO: PAXG) and Tether Gold (CRYPTO: XAUt) demonstrated how decentralized-price discovery can function when traditional venues are closed. On Saturday, PAXG and XAUt benefited from a surge in interest as geopolitical tensions intensified, with XAUt peaking above the early-week momentum. These movements illustrate how on-chain markets can capture evolving risk sentiment in real time, offering a complement to established futures and ETF products, such as SPDR Gold Shares (EXCHANGE: GLD).

Tokenized gold market dynamics and the role of liquidity providers

Industry observers note that the lion’s share of trading activity is driven by market makers and cross-venue liquidity providers who exploit price differentials between digital and traditional markets. Crypto-native macro traders also rely on tokenized gold not only for bullion-like exposure but also as collateral, hedging tools, and yield-generation strategies during periods of heightened macroeconomic or geopolitical risk. While adoption is accelerating, fragmentation across jurisdictions and evolving custody rules mean institutions proceed cautiously, seeking standardized frameworks before scaling large, executable trades.

What to watch next

• Keep an eye on weekend price discovery to see whether on-chain signals consistently precede CME reopenings.
• Watch regulatory developments around custody and accounting for tokenized assets, which could unlock broader institutional deployment.
• Track liquidity improvements across tokenized-gold venues and any progress toward consolidated reporting for cross-venue trades.
• Observe institutional testing of tokenized gold as collateral in crypto and traditional markets, and its effect on liquidity in times of stress.

Market context

The rise of 24/7 tokenized-gold markets aligns with broader shifts toward continuous liquidity in crypto-native assets and real-world asset tokenization. As macro conditions, risk sentiment, and regulatory landscapes evolve, tokenized bullion offerings are increasingly treated as part of a diversified toolkit for managing tail risks and obtaining bullion-like exposure outside standard spot markets.

Why it matters

For users and investors, the emergence of around-the-clock price discovery for tokenized gold expands access to bullion-driven strategies beyond traditional exchanges. It offers potential advantages in risk management and hedging, particularly during times when geopolitical or macro events disrupt standard trading hours. For builders and incumbents in the digital asset ecosystem, these dynamics underscore the importance of robust liquidity, reliable custody solutions, and interoperable settlement rails to sustain confidence and participation among institutions. Finally, for the market at large, tokenized gold represents a meaningful bridge between crypto markets and traditional commodities, illustrating how tokenization can add resilience to risk management frameworks even as the asset class continues to mature.

Cloud mining regains momentum in 2026 as crypto investors revisit its profitability amid rising adoption and changing market conditions.

As the cryptocurrency industry continues to grow, more and more cryptocurrency enthusiasts are turning to cloud mining as their preferred way to earn Bitcoin and other digital assets. 

Compared to traditional mining methods, cloud mining does not require expensive hardware or complex technical knowledge, making it a popular choice for both beginners and experienced investors. However, by 2026, many people are still asking a key question: Is cloud mining still profitable today?

To answer this question, we will explore the current state of cloud mining and present five verified free cloud mining platforms. Whether someone’s a cryptocurrency novice or an experienced investor, these platforms allow them to earn stable Bitcoin income in a simple and low-risk way.

Cloud mining in 2026: Trends and advantages

Cloud mining is a method of mining Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remotely without the need to purchase and maintain hardware. By renting hash power from remote data centers, users can earn Bitcoin or other cryptocurrency rewards without dealing with complex technical issues.

The main advantages of cloud mining include:

• Zero equipment costs: No need to purchase expensive mining rigs, pay high electricity bills, or handle maintenance.
• Accessible anywhere: Mining activities can be easily monitored and managed online with just an internet-connected device.
• Low entry barrier: Many platforms offer free trials or low-cost entry options, making it ideal for beginners.

However, the cloud mining industry is not without risks. Scams and lack of transparency are still prevalent, so it’s crucial to choose a regulated, transparent, and reputable platform.

Top 5 verified free cloud mining platforms in 2026

Here are five verified free cloud mining platforms that are not only safe and reliable but also offer free trials, allowing anyone to earn Bitcoin without any upfront investment:

1. Hashbitcoin – The most trusted cloud mining platform in 2026

As the leader in the cloud mining industry in 2026, Hashbitcoin stands out for its compliance, transparency, and environmentally friendly mining services. 

Headquartered in the UK, the company combines renewable energy with advanced AI optimization technology to ensure users achieve efficient and sustainable mining profits.

Core advantages of Hashbitcoin:

• Free Bonus: New users receive a $15 free hash power bonus upon registration.
• Fast Payouts: Daily Bitcoin payouts with no delays.
• AI Optimization: Intelligent hash power allocation to maximize profits.
• Green Energy: 100% renewable energy usage (hydropower, wind, solar, and geothermal).
• Transparent Contracts: All mining contracts are clear and refundable.

Hashbitcoin’s global green mining network:
Hashbitcoin’s hash power comes from multiple clean energy mining farms distributed worldwide, including:

• Norway: Bitcoin mining powered by 100% hydropower.
• Canada: Efficient hydropower mining centers.
• Iceland: Geothermal-powered Bitcoin mining facilities.
• Uruguay: A hybrid mining system using wind and solar energy.
• Paraguay: Ultra-low-cost giant hydropower plants.
• Sweden: Sustainable mining solutions combining wind and hydropower.

These green energy mining farms not only reduce mining costs but also significantly increase Bitcoin output per unit of hash power, far exceeding the industry average.

Hashbitcoin contract examples:

Sign up now to claim $15 free hash power and start the mining journey!

For more information, visit Hashbitcoin official website.

2. NiceHash – Flexible hash power marketplace

NiceHash provides a global hash power marketplace where users can directly rent or sell hash power. While most contracts require payment, its free “NiceHash Miner” software offers new users an easy way to get started. The software is simple to operate and is suitable for miners who want flexible control over their hash power.

3. CryptoTab Browser – Mine Bitcoin while browsing the web

CryptoTab Browser is a tool that allows users to mine Bitcoin automatically while browsing the internet. Although the earnings are limited, it’s very beginner-friendly and doesn’t require any complicated setup. It’s a great option for users who want to experience cloud mining at zero cost.

4. ECOS – Government-supported cloud mining platform

Located in Armenia’s Free Economic Zone, ECOS is one of the few cloud mining platforms with government approval. The platform offers regulated mining services and free trial contracts. While the free package provides limited hash power, its compliance and transparency make it an ideal choice for many new users.

5. F2Pool – Free mining services from a veteran mining pool

F2Pool is one of the oldest and most well-known mining pools in the world, and it also offers limited free mining services. Although the rewards are small, its long-standing reputation and security make F2Pool a reliable choice for long-term profitability.

Conclusion: Is cloud mining still worth it in 2026?

The answer is yes! Even in 2026, cloud mining remains a viable and profitable option, but only if the right platform is chosen. Hashbitcoin stands out as the safest and most profitable choice, offering free bonuses, daily payouts, renewable energy support, and transparent contracts.

For those looking for a way to earn passive Bitcoin income without any upfront investment, starting with Hashbitcoin could be a safe and reliable choice. It provides an opportunity for everyone to participate in cryptocurrency mining with ease.

Ready to start earning free Bitcoin? Sign up for Hashbitcoin now and start mining without hardware.

Key Takeaways

• Joint U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran over the weekend inject fresh geopolitical risk into financial markets
• Major indices declined through the week; Bitcoin retreated toward $66,000 as gold advanced to $2,596
• February employment report releases Friday; prior month revealed 130,000 new positions, exceeding analyst expectations by over 100%
• Critical earnings announcements include Broadcom, CrowdStrike, Costco, and Target
• Apple begins product rollout Monday, with special presentation scheduled for midweek

Equity markets finished the week in negative territory as artificial intelligence and entertainment sector stocks produced volatile swings. The S&P 500 registered losses for the trading day, week, and February overall.

The Nasdaq 100 similarly declined, while the Dow Jones dropped 1.05%. Treasury yields on 10-year notes pulled back to 3.95%.

Bitcoin descended toward $66,000 as the week concluded. Gold advanced to $2,596 per ounce and crude oil climbed to $67.29 per barrel.

During the weekend, coordinated U.S. and Israeli forces executed military strikes against Iranian targets. President Trump issued statements encouraging regime change in Iran, prompting retaliatory strikes from Iran targeting Israeli territory and Gulf region nations.

Crude oil prices had already been climbing throughout the week on mounting Iran-related tensions. Additional escalation could drive energy prices higher, impacting sectors including energy production, transportation, and defense manufacturing.

Employment Data Takes Priority

The February employment situation report publishes Friday. January’s report revealed employers added 130,000 positions, substantially exceeding economist projections.

That report also included downward revisions to previous months, indicating early 2025 job creation was softer than initially calculated. The Federal Reserve maintains its policy rate at 3.5% to 3.75% as market participants monitor for signs of labor market deceleration.

Unemployment is anticipated to remain near 4.4%. A softer reading could reignite speculation about potential rate reductions in March or May.

The postponed January retail sales data also releases Friday. December figures showed consumer spending momentum stalled as the year ended, with subdued employment growth identified as a contributing factor.

Corporate Results Continue Rolling In

Broadcom announces results Wednesday with analysts projecting approximately $19.22 billion in quarterly revenue. The company indicated in December that artificial intelligence-related sales would experience a doubling during the period.

CrowdStrike delivers its report Tuesday. Software companies face headwinds from concerns about AI-driven disruption, though certain analysts view artificial intelligence as creating expansion opportunities in cybersecurity.

Marvell Technology follows on Thursday. Market watchers will scrutinize AI semiconductor demand following Nvidia’s exceptional quarter featuring $68.1 billion in Q4 sales.

Target announces results Tuesday under recently appointed CEO Michael Fiddelke, who assumed leadership last month. Target’s stock price has rebounded in recent months following a challenging 2025.

Costco releases earnings Thursday. The retailer’s shares have similarly shown improvement in 2026 after experiencing declines the prior year.

Netflix stock surged 13.82% over the past week after Warner Bros. Discovery accepted a $31-per-share acquisition proposal from Paramount Skydance, rejecting Netflix’s competing bid. Netflix declined to increase its offer and withdrew from consideration.

Apple anticipates unveiling new products beginning Monday, potentially including the iPhone 17 and an affordably priced MacBook. A dedicated special event is confirmed for Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book publishes Wednesday in advance of the central bank’s March 17-18 policy meeting.

Marvell Technology’s quarterly results are scheduled for release Thursday, March 5.

SpaceX has held bitcoin for years without ever having to explain why to the public market investors. That’s about to change.

Bloomberg reported late Friday that Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company is targeting a confidential IPO filing with the SEC as soon as March, keeping it on track for a June listing that would be the largest in history. The company is expected to seek a valuation above $1.75 trillion and raise as much as $50 billion, eclipsing Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record of $29 billion.

Buried inside that filing will be 8,285 bitcoin.

Arkham Intelligence data shows SpaceX’s identified wallets held about $544.8 million in BTC as of Saturday morning, spread across 43 addresses in Coinbase Prime custody.

The balance has remained roughly stable around 8,300 BTC since at least early 2026, but the dollar value has moved sharply in the wrong direction. In December, when CoinDesk reported on the holdings ahead of the planned listing, the same stack was worth roughly $780 million at bitcoin’s then price near $92,500.

By early February, when the SpaceX-xAI merger brought the position back into focus, it had dropped to around $650 million with bitcoin near $78,000.

Now it sits around $545 million. That’s a $235 million decline in value over three months without SpaceX touching a single coin.

That means SpaceX’s S-1 will show bitcoin-related paper losses for any period where BTC declined, and future quarterly earnings will carry that volatility regardless of whether the company buys or sells.

The Tesla example

Tesla offers the closest precedent, and it isn’t reassuring.

Musk’s automaker has booked hundreds of millions in paper losses during past drawdowns despite never changing its position, creating recurring headline risk that overshadowed the underlying business. SpaceX could soon face the same dynamic, except its first disclosure arrives during one of bitcoin’s sharpest corrections in years rather than during a rally.

However, it’s worth noting that Tesla reported total revenue of $94.8 billion and gross profit of $17 billion in 2025. So having millions of bitcoin paper losses in its balance sheet may not move the needle much for Elon Musk’s companies.

SpaceX’s BTC portfolio peaked near $2 billion in late 2021, crashed through 2022, and has spent the past two years fluctuating between $400 million and $800 million.

As such, SpaceX has shown no inclination to trade its position. Unlike Tesla, which sold and repurchased bitcoin, the Arkham data suggests SpaceX has simply held through every cycle.

One of the most popular AI models gives a shocking answer to a pressing question regarding PI’s price at the end of this month.

It goes without saying that the clock is officially ticking. We’re already in March, meaning that the close of the first quarterly window is upon us, and millions of people holding the native token of Pi Network are wondering: what will the PI price be?

Well, we’ve produced countless reports based on the thoughts of prominent and well-known analysts in the space, but for this one, we turned to Gemini – one of the most popular AI models out there.

After all, if AI is the future, why not try seeing the reasoning and justification of a price model? So, we asked it directly – what will the price of PI be at the end of this month? The answer is very interesting.

Generating PI Price Predictions for Various Scenarios

First things first, Gemini went on to describe three scenarios for the PI price this month, somewhat expectedly covering all angles. The model called them “The Doomsday Bot,” “The Boring Realist,” and “The Hopium Generator.” Clearly, its crypto slang is somewhat stuck in 2021, but let’s ignore that for now.

The first scenario predicts PI’s price to dump to $0.14 or lower by the end of the month. The reasoning is that impatient early adopters will aggressively dump their bags the second they get a shred of liquidity following more KYC migration unlocks.

The second one predicts a chop – a sideways price action, where the “Pi Core team continues its notoriously methodical and slow approach.” Gemini says the token could continue trading in a relatively narrow range between $0.17 and $0.20.

Last but not least, we have the bullish take, which sees the price shooting above $0.50 – a 3x increase in what the AI calculates as the “perfect storm scenario.” This would require the network to successfully bridge millions of users into spending participants and surprise major exchange listings.

You may also like:

So, up until now, the AI model doesn’t take any chances and covers pretty much any scenario – from bearish, to sideways, to positive. Sounds an awful lot like a veteran analyst, right?

But here’s the twist.

Gemini’s Reality Check

In its last paragraph, Gemini set its foot firmly on the ground, saying:

“Before you go financing a Lambo based on the Hopium Generator, let’s look at the facts. With PI sitting around $0.17 and an estimated circulating supply of over 9.4 billion tokens, jumping to $0.5, let alone the wild $314,159 numbers you see on X – would require billions of dollars in actual capital to enter the ecosystem.”

The model urges users to keep their expectations in check as the end of the quarter closes in.