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Hyperliquid Emerges Winner Amid US Iran Geopolitcal Tensions

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Hyperliquid's HIP-3 Platform's Open Interest.

Hyperliquid emerged as a rare winner amid the sudden escalation of military hostilities in the Middle East between the US, Israel, and Iran.

This weekend, the exchange saw a surge in commodities-focused derivatives trading, with open interest for these assets reaching an all-time high of more than $1.1 billion.

Hyperliquid Rallies 13% as US and Iran Tensions Roil Markets

The uptrend can be attributed to traders seeking to hedge geopolitical risks while traditional financial markets were closed for the weekend.

As a result, market participants pivoted to the blockchain-based platform to trade synthetic perpetual futures contracts tied to oil, gold, silver, and US equities.

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This continuous trading was facilitated by HyperLiquid Improvement Proposal 3, or HIP-3, an upgrade implemented last year.

HIP-3 allows developers to deploy permissionless perpetual futures markets for any asset with a reliable public price feed, provided the creator stakes 500,000 of the platform’s native HYPE tokens.

Driven by the weekend volatility, HIP-3’s open interest eclipsed its previous record of $1.06 billion.

Hyperliquid's HIP-3 Platform's Open Interest.
Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 Platform’s Open Interest. Source: Flowscan

Overall, the broader Hyperliquid platform has accumulated nearly $5.5 billion in total open interest, securing an estimated $1.06 million in protocol earnings over a 24-hour period, according to data from DeFiLlama.

Additionally, data provider Messari reported that HIP-3 markets have generated $4.4 billion in weekend trading volume in February alone.

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The platform’s ability to capture traditional market volume drew the attention of prominent industry figures. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the crypto exchange BitMEX, highlighted the structural shift on the social media platform X.

“Where price discovery happens when TradExchanges sleep…It’s the weekend, [stuff’s] going down, TradExchanges are closed, but Hyperliquid is open for business,” Hayes wrote.

However, the platform’s lack of compliance guardrails could introduce substantial legal hurdles in the future.

Offering synthetic US equities to retail investors without “know your customer” (KYC) protocols or a registered broker-dealer license poses significant regulatory risks.

These practices could draw future scrutiny from the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

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Despite this looming threat, the platform’s native token responded positively to the weekend influx.

BeInCrypto data show that HYPE’s price rose 13% over the last 24 hours, trading above $30 as of press time. Notably, this makes it the best-performing asset among the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Can Hit $74,000 Despite Iran Tensions, Trader Predicts

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Bitcoin Can Hit $74,000 Despite Iran Tensions, Trader Predicts

Bitcoin avoided a fresh breakdown around major geopolitical events in the Middle East, with BTC price targets now including $74,000 next.

Bitcoin (BTC) ignored geopolitical volatility on Sunday as traders waited for markets’ Iran reaction.

Key points:

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  • Bitcoin coils around $67,000 as the dust settles on a wild weekend in the Middle East.

  • TradFi market reactions are in focus, with BTC price action avoiding major volatility.

  • Oil price concerns compound as Iran seeks to close the Strait of Hormuz.

Trader sees $74,000 BTC price rally

Data from TradingView showed BTC price action focusing on $67,000 in the aftermath of the latest round of conflict in the Middle East.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The weekend prevented TradFi markets from adjusting to events in real time, with US stock market futures down 0.65% at the time of writing.

Crypto also saw volatility, but soon cooled, and BTC/USD avoided a major breakout from its local trading range.

Commenting, crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe described the initial response as “positive.”

“Now, markets are correcting back down, as there’s uncertainty on how US markets will open tomorrow (and there’s still an outstanding gap of the CME),” he wrote in a post on X

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“On the other hand, the 21-Day MA needs to break in order to have a relief rally. I think we’ll see it in March/April, question of how we’re opening the markets tomorrow and whether it finds a higher low.”

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe

Van de Poppe referred to Bitcoin’s 21-day simple moving average at $67,627. The weekend’s “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market lay to the downside at $65,880.

“$BTC looks good in the short-term,” trader BitBull agreed about the three-day chart. 

“Deviation below the support zone and has now flipped resistance into support. I think a rally towards the $73K-$74K level could happen.”

BTC/USDT three-day chart. Source: BitBull/X

Some argued that geopolitical instability had been “priced in” by the market in advance, explaining the comparatively modest price action over the weekend.

“We will probably move side ways the next days…,” trader Crypto Caesar concluded.

BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Crypto Caesar/X

Strait of Hormuz tied to next US inflation spike

A separate point of concern focused on potential oil price volatility as Iran claimed to be closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Related: Bitcoin historical price metric sees $122K ‘average return’ over 10 months

Despite being international waters, the Strait became a holding ground for oil shipping on Sunday, leading to swift analysis of the knock-on effect for US inflation.

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Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter referenced research by JPMorgan while suggesting that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could jump to 5%.

“The last time we saw US inflation at 5% was in March 2023, when the Fed was aggressively hiking rates,” it wrote in a dedicated X thread.

US CPI 12-month % change. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

As Cointelegraph reported, recent US inflation prints outpaced expectations, notably Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers.