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Sunday Number 66: Numbers Puzzle

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China arms itself for potential trade war with Donald Trump

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China has prepared powerful countermeasures to retaliate against US companies if president-elect Donald Trump reignites a smouldering trade war between the world’s two biggest economies, according to Beijing advisers and international risk analysts.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s government was caught off-guard by Trump’s 2016 election victory and the subsequent imposition of higher tariffs, tighter controls over investments and sanctions on Chinese companies.

But while China’s fragile economic outlook has since made it more vulnerable to US pressure, Beijing has introduced sweeping new laws over the past eight years that allow it to blacklist foreign companies, impose its own sanctions and cut American access to crucial supply chains.

“This is a two-way process. China will of course try to engage with President Trump in whatever way, try to negotiate,” said Wang Dong, executive director of Peking University’s Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding. “But if, as happened in 2018, nothing can be achieved through talks and we have to fight, we will resolutely defend China’s rights and interests.”

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President Joe Biden maintained most of his predecessor’s measures against China, but Trump has already signalled an even tougher stance by appointing China hawks to important roles.

China now has at its disposal an “anti-foreign sanctions law” that allows it to counter measures taken by other countries and an “unreliable entity list” for foreign companies that it deems to have undermined its national interests. An expanded export control law means Beijing can also weaponise its global dominance of the supply of dozens of resources such as rare earths and lithium that are crucial to modern technologies.

Andrew Gilholm, head of China analysis at consultancy Control Risks, said many underestimated the damage Beijing could inflict on US interests.

Gilholm pointed to “warning shots” fired in recent months. These included sanctions imposed on Skydio, the biggest US drone maker and a supplier to Ukraine’s military, that ban Chinese groups from providing the company with critical components.

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Beijing has also threatened to include PVH, whose brands include Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, on its “unreliables list”, a move that could cut the clothing company’s access to the huge Chinese market.

“This is the tip of the iceberg,” Gilholm said, adding: “I keep telling our clients: ‘You think you’ve priced-in geopolitical risk and US-China trade warfare, but you haven’t, because China hasn’t seriously retaliated yet’.”

China is also racing to make its technology and resource supply chains more resistant to disruption from US sanctions while expanding trade with countries less aligned to Washington.

From Beijing’s perspective, while relations with the US were more stable towards the end of Biden’s presidency, the outgoing administration’s policies had largely continued in the same vein as in Trump’s first term. 

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“Everyone was already expecting the worst, so there won’t be any surprises. Everybody is ready,” said Wang Chong, a foreign policy expert at Zhejiang International Studies University.

Still, China cannot lightly dismiss Trump’s campaign-trail threat to impose blanket tariffs of more than 60 per cent on all Chinese imports, given slowing economic growth, weak confidence among consumers and businesses and historically high youth unemployment.

Gong Jiong, professor at Beijing’s University of International Business and Economics, said that in the event of negotiations, he expected China to be open to more direct investment in US manufacturing or to moving more manufacturing to countries Washington found acceptable.

China has been struggling to boost the economy amid doubts about its ability to hit this year’s official growth target of around 5 per cent, one of its lowest targets in decades.

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A former US trade official, who asked not to be named because of involvement in active US-China disputes, said Beijing had been surgical in using the “arrows” in its quiver, wary of further eroding weak international investment sentiment.

“That constraint is still there and that internal tension in China still exists, but if there are 60 per cent tariffs or real hawkish intent by the Trump administration, then that could change,” the former official said.

Trump holding up a signed order in the White House Oval Office, flanked by then-US trade representative Robert Lighthizer
Trump, flanked by then-US trade representative Robert Lighthizer, imposed new tariffs on Chinese imports in 2018 © Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

Joe Mazur, a US-China trade analyst with Trivium, a Beijing consultancy, said Trump’s wider “protectionist streak” might work in China’s favour. The president-elect has pledged to impose tariffs of at least 10 per cent on all imports to the US.

“Should other major economies begin to view the US as an unreliable trade partner, they could seek to cultivate deeper trade ties with China in search of more favourable export markets,” Mazur said.

However, others believe Beijing’s planned countermeasures will risk hurting only Chinese companies and its own economy in the long run.

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James Zimmerman, a partner with law firm Loeb & Loeb in Beijing, said the Chinese government might be “wholly unprepared” for a second Trump term, including “all the chaos and lack of diplomacy that will come with it”.

Zimmerman said a key reason why trade tensions could resurface was Beijing’s failure to meet obligations agreed in a 2020 deal with the first Trump administration that called for substantial Chinese purchases of US goods.

The “smart” action from Beijing would be to do whatever it could to prevent further tariffs from being imposed, Zimmerman said.

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“The likelihood of an expanded trade war during the US president-elect’s second term is high,” he added.

Additional reporting by Haohsiang Ko in Hong Kong and Wenjie Ding in Beijing

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‘Robot revolution’ forces China’s human workforce to adapt

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Crouched around a whirring machine on the upper floor of Zongwei’s factory in Suzhou, a group of engineers puts China’s next generation of manufacturing equipment through its paces.

The research and development team is one of many across China racing to solve one of the biggest challenges facing its 6mn manufacturers: how to remain competitive as labour costs rise due to a shrinking working-age population.

Zongwei builds automated factory lines, which, unlike their mechanical predecessors that move an assembly line at a constant speed, whisk the product around at different speeds and directions between workstations along a maglev conveyor system. It claims to drastically reduce manufacturing times and counts China Tobacco, electric vehicle maker BYD, and Apple suppliers Foxconn and Luxshare among its clients.

More significantly, Zongwei is developing a technology that clearly falls into the category of “smart manufacturing”, which also encompasses the use of robots that are displacing human labour.

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Beijing has so far embraced what it calls the “robot revolution” as a way to tackle rising labour shortages in its rapidly ageing population, offering the sector tax breaks and subsidies to encourage investment and procurement. Its success, however, will still depend on the human factor — specifically, on whether the remaining workforce will have the skills to handle these sophisticated machines.

China has — partly thanks to government support over the past decade — become the world’s largest market for industrial robots. Last year, it installed over 276,000, which represented more than half the global total, according to the International Federation of Robotics.

Chinese companies used to import most of their robots, notably from Japan, Germany and the US. But they have increasingly been replacing these with domestic models that often sell at a fraction of the price of foreign rivals’ offerings.

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This is helping to drive down the cost of smart manufacturing equipment in China, but experts say there is still work to do to train the labour force that will use it. The complex machinery requires technical knowhow, including engineering skills to fix broken parts and an understanding of the software that manages the machines.

China’s manufacturing industry relies heavily on its nearly 300mn migrant workers, who leave their rural areas for urbanised coastal regions in search of better-paid factory jobs. However, despite improving education levels, as of last year just 52 per cent of migrant workers had a middle school education, while 14 per cent had only a primary school education.

An assembly line in a factory with multiple white vehicle cabs lined up, each with doors open and technicians in blue uniforms working inside
An assembly line at a BYD plant in Huai’an. The electric vehicle maker is one of many Chinese companies using smart manufacturing technology © Karry Zhao/Feature China/Future Publishing via Getty Images

Researchers have found that these migrant workers are the most likely to be displaced by robots. “Where robot adoption is higher, there is a reduction in the influx of workers from migrant areas,” says Osea Giuntella, associate professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh and lead author of a National Bureau of Economic Research paper on the labour response to automation in China.

Migrant workers are increasingly opting for service sector jobs, such as food delivery. According to official statistics, in 2023, 28 per cent of migrant workers were employed in manufacturing but 54 per cent were in service sector jobs, which are often worse paid.

China does still has an abundance of engineers, though — in spite of the massive skills gap suggested by the education attainment levels. They tend to be employed as factory managers or in the R&D teams that are well-positioned to adapt automated technologies in factories.

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Industry insiders argue that robots are simply taking over tasks that more and more workers are shunning. Henry Han, president of ABB Robotics China, says robots are “adept at taking on dull, dirty and potentially dangerous jobs that are difficult to recruit for”.

He adds that the adoption of robotics has been smoothed by the “well-educated engineers and skilled workers from hundreds of universities and vocational schools across China”.

Even so, there is still a need to train those skilled workers in new machinery. Provinces saturated with manufacturing, notably Guangdong, have launched training programmes to educate a new generation of workers. But researchers from Tsinghua and Fudan universities have found that courses at local universities or technical colleges often lack the equipment to teach up-to-date skills, instead relying on textbooks or outdated equipment.

The most effective training, they say, is done through the suppliers of robots and intelligent manufacturing equipment.

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Zongwei’s deputy general manager, Jack Xu, says the company dispatches teams of engineers to install its products and to teach customers how to use the software that operates the factory line.

Industrial machines with clear enclosures labeled ‘Zongwei’ are set up in a clean, white workspace, with one machine featuring robotic arms for handling objects
Zongwei machinery at its Suzhou plant. Deputy general manager Jack Xu says time-pressed customers need equipment that is ‘very easy to use’ © Zongwei

“We build the software ourselves,” he says. “It must be very easy to use. The customers don’t have much time to learn new things from suppliers so, if they don’t know how to use it, they will always call the supplier.”

Xu adds that fierce competition in China means customers can demand very hands-on aftersales service, creating a strong incentive to make machines easy to operate and avoid the cost of sending out engineers.

For example, Tusk Robots, a Guangzhou-based company making autonomous machines that can move pallets around warehouses and factories — replacing human-operated forklifts — takes an active role in educating its customers.

Michael Zhang, Tusk’s co-founder, says its first customer in China, the German engineering group Bosch, bought nearly 30 robots for its Xian plant manufacturing car parts, and was able to replace more than 50 workers who had been operating forklifts.

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Tusk has a team of engineers that it sends to large clients, and a network of distributors with engineering expertise to service smaller clients, with a training programme that takes about two weeks.

Some larger companies have set up specialised institutes to provide formal certification. ABB Robotics China, for example, has set up a training institute in Shanghai that teaches customers programming and electrical and mechanical maintenance.

While some countries view rising automation as a threat to stable employment, Chinese policymakers view it as a tool to ensure the country remains a competitive destination for manufacturing.

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Workers have responded, meanwhile, either by taking early retirement or engaging in technical training to gain a competitive edge over the machinery, according to the NBER paper.

“There is a perception that the economy is changing, and workers have to make a drastic decision: to undergo training or to go into retirement because the investment in their own human capital is not worth it,” Giuntella says.

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People urged to check Hot Wheels to see if they have a toy worth £3,200 as rarest and most valuable cars revealed

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People urged to check Hot Wheels to see if they have a toy worth £3,200 as rarest and most valuable cars revealed

IF you have a few Hot Wheels cars in your attic from when you were a child, now may be the time to check how much they could be worth.

Rare Hot Wheels models can fetch as much as £3,200 at auction, according to Peter Morris, an avid Hot Wheels collector and auctioneer at Vectis Auctions.

A 2021 rare Hot Wheels super treasure hunt car

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A 2021 rare Hot Wheels super treasure hunt carCredit: Mattel

Hot Wheels are a brand of model cars and race tracks, created my Mattel – the inventor of Barbie – in 1968.

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While the majority of toy cars are unlikely to fetch thousands of pounds, you could still walk away with a handsome profit.

How to spot a rare and valuable car

Original Hot Wheels cars from the 1960s and 70s tend to be the most valuable, Mr Morris said.

“The most expensive ones are the original red line cars, which were made in the first ten years of production,” he explained.

“You can spot them because each tire will have a red ring on it.”

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The cars should also have a date on the bottom of the base which will tell you when they were made.

Look out for cars that were produced between 1968 and 1977, he said.

These cars can be picked up for about £30 to £50 but can sell for hundreds of pounds at auction.

“The most expensive one we sold was £3,200,” Mr Morris said.

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“It was a Mustang Boss Hoss and still had its original card box as if it had come straight from the shop.”

But it does not matter if you still have the box as these cars are still valuable without it.

Focus on the condition of the car as this will dictate how much it is worth, warns Robert Wilkin, an auctioneer at C&T Auctioneers and Valuers.

“The value of a car will depend on whether the paint is chipped and if the wheels go round,” he said.

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“The axles on Hot Wheels cars are a lot thinner than on a Matchbox car because that makes them spin quicker, which makes them go faster on the track.

“If the wheels still go round nicely then the car is worth more money than if it’s got bent axles and the wheels are out of shape.”

How to spot an expensive Hot Wheels car

It can be difficult to tell how much your Hot Wheels car is worth.

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Here Robert Wilkin, auctioneer at C&T Auctioneers and Valuers, shares how to spot them:

The valuable cars have got red lines around the wheels.

They often look almost like space age or old Cameros and Ford Mustangs.

The more decorated they are and the more fancy graphics they have on them, the more modern they will be.

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This won’t necessarily mean that they are worth more.

Look out for the plainer looking, metallic colours rather than graphic details on the cars.

Usually they have a metal base, but more modern ones have a plastic base.

Look out for markings such as a circle with a flame on the packaging as sometimes this will indicate that it is a treasure hunt car.

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Do not worry if you cannot get your hands on an original Hot Wheels vehicle as more recent models can still fetch hundreds of pounds.

In 1995 Hot Wheels maker Mattel began to release a limited number of “Treasure Hunt” cars into its regular selection.

In the very first set only 10,000 of each of the 12 treasure hunt vehicles were released.

Early versions can be identified by a horizontal green stripe, with “TREA$URE HUNT SERIES” written on the packaging.

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More modern cars have a circle with a flame in it on the packaging or car to indicate that it is a treasure hunt car.

Meanwhile, in 2007 Super Secret Treasure Hunts were introduced as part of a revamp of the Treasure Hunt system.

These were spun off into a “hidden” series in 2012, when Super Secret Treasure Hunts were released with mainline cars.

To spot them, look out for a gold Treasure Hunt flame logo on the packaging.

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The value of these cars can vary but some will be worth hundreds of pounds each, Mr Wilkin said.

“Some treasure hunts will be only worth about £10 in the box and some of them are worth up to £200, depending on which treasure hunt car you find,” he said.

“If they’re a more desirable sort of car then they could be worth a couple of hundred pounds each.”

It does not generally matter what year they were released in so look out for cars which were produced in the 1990s and 2000s or more recently.

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Some of the modern cars which were produced to coincide with the release of films do hold their value, he adds.

“There’s a lot of Batmobiles out at the moment in the last year which could be worth getting,” he said.

“One is designed to look like a Scooby-Doo van which is quite a nice one.”

How can I sell my Hot Wheels online?

You can sell your Hot Wheels car online through websites such as eBay and Facebook Marketplace.

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You will need to set up a listing for your Hot Wheels which must include pictures, a price and key information such as the year the car was released.

To do so you will need to take pictures of your Hot Wheels car.

Make sure to take a photo of any wear and tear on the surface, wheels or base of the car.

Try to find a professional photo from the manufacturer of the car from when it was first released.

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This will help anyone interested in buying your car to visualise what it looked like when it was first bought.

Next upload your photos to the website of your choice and begin to build your listing.

You should write a description of the item and include the make and model of the car and the condition it is in.

If you want to buy a Hot Wheels car online then do not worry too much about whether it is genuine or not.

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Mr Wilkin said: “Most of the time the car itself will be genuine. If it is in a sealed packet most of the time it will be real.”

If you are planning to buy an expensive car or you think that yours may be worth a lot of money then it may be worth contacting an auction house.

An expert can look at the car to make sure that it is original and can verify that your car is genuine.

Specialist auctioneers such as C&T Auctioneers and Valuers, Sotheby’s and Vectis Auctions can help you to value your item.

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You do not need to live near the auctioneer to sell with them. Check the firms’ websites for more information.

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

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Art-inspired Hyatt Centric Cairo West opens to guests

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Art-inspired Hyatt Centric Cairo West opens to guests

Hyatt Hotels Corporation and ALDAU Development have opened the Hyatt Centric Cairo West – the first art-centered lifestyle hotel in Cairo, promising to take guests on an immersive journey through Egyptian history reimagined for modern travellers.

Continue reading Art-inspired Hyatt Centric Cairo West opens to guests at Business Traveller.

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High childcare costs pose challenge for Australian business

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Anthony Albanese reaches into a box held by an adult supervisor at a childcare centre in Perth

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Australia’s fertility rate hit an all-time low last month — a datum demographers attributed to younger citizens’ worries about climate change and the cost of home ownership.

Another factor, however, may be the high cost of childcare, which is widely seen as a significant deterrent for young couples deciding whether or not to have children.

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Australia’s consumer watchdog, the ACCC, has argued that the country has some of the most expensive day care in the OECD, with fees rising at twice the rate of comparable countries between 2018 and 2022.

OECD data for 2020 and 2021 showed that Australians with two children under the age of three in full-time day care spent about 60 per cent of their average gross earnings on childcare, compared with an OECD average of 26 per cent, and only 1 per cent in Germany. Switzerland was the only country where childcare costs as a proportion of income were higher.

This has had a significant impact on Australian companies, which continue to lose female workers to parenthood because childcare is so expensive. Many businesses are now investing in facilities or policies that they hope will boost retention.

Politicians are worried, too: the government of Anthony Albanese made childcare one of its priorities when it was elected in 2022, and the issue of female participation in the workforce took centre stage at its jobs and skills summit that year. One speaker compared the untapped wealth from not enabling more women to do higher-value jobs to leaving a giant ore deposit in the ground.

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Yet the problem has not gone away. If anything, says Georgie Dent, chief executive of childcare advocacy group The Parenthood, it has worsened. Australia’s latest inflation data shows that day care costs rose 12 per cent in the year to September, despite the government increasing childcare subsidies last year by A$5bn ($3.3bn). “That is the madness of pouring more money into a system that is not working,” Dent says.

In part, the sharp rise in prices reflects higher labour costs and inflation in Australia as a whole. Another factor, experts say, is that the businesses providing most of the country’s childcare have tended to invest in wealthier inner urban areas, where parents can afford to cover the “out of pocket” costs above the subsidy. This has created “childcare deserts” in many areas, leading to an imbalance of supply and demand that drives up costs for operators and parents.

Anthony Albanese reaches into a box held by an adult supervisor at a childcare centre in Perth
Policy puzzle: Anthony Albanese has made childcare one of his government’s priorities © Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images

For some companies, the solution is to provide the childcare themselves. Mineral Resources, for example, the Perth-based miner, is building a day care centre next to its headquarters that will be able to host more than 100 children at a cost of A$20 a day, compared with the A$160 that some parents pay.

However, similar on-site centres, run by companies including bank NAB and biotech CSL, have closed in recent years. Some in the childcare industry question whether businesses are willing to foot the cost of running such services in the long term, and whether parents really want to take them up.

Ash Sachdev, chief executive of Care For Kids, a comparison website for childcare services, compares the appeal of company day care centres to that of on-site gyms, which may be less of a draw than some businesses assume.

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“If you’re looking for convenience, then that’s fantastic, but can an on-site crèche provide a better learning experience than a dedicated centre?” he asks. “The workplace may feel a lot more family friendly, but it may not be the best option for children in the long term.”

Other companies, including insurer QBE and health fund HCF, have moved to increase parental benefits, including paid leave for both fathers and mothers, to attract workers and to encourage women to return to work. Dent welcomes such moves, noting that paternal benefits help ease pressure on women to be traditional stay-at-home mothers.

But the wider issue remains unresolved as Albanese’s government prepares for next year’s federal election. Erin Clarke, a researcher at economics research group the e61 Institute, says attempts to reform childcare policies have so far failed to increase women’s participation in the workforce because many low-income families have found the trade-off between the cost of childcare and the income generated by working extra hours is still unacceptable.

She notes that supply remains a problem, especially given childcare providers’ focus on higher income areas. And she adds that, as competition for workers continues to intensify, hampering the flow of staff into all care sectors, policy reforms will be difficult to achieve. “There’s no easy fix,” she says.

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Albanese is considering a plan to introduce a flat fee of between A$10 and A$20 a day for childcare as a key tenet of his government’s re-election campaign.

Such a move would cost an extra A$8.3bn a year, according to a Productivity Commission report published in September — more expensive than an alternative proposal to increase subsidies and amend the existing structure to benefit lower-income families more.

Dent says she would support a move to a flat fee structure because of the scale of the challenges that high childcare costs present, from the low birth rate to reduced productivity and companies being starved of talent. “There’s no doubt that this is critically important,” she says. “It is genuinely a nation-building issue.”

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John Lewis Christmas adverts through the years from 2007 to 2023 – The Sun

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John Lewis Christmas adverts through the years from 2007 to 2023 – The Sun

CHRISTMAS is fast approaching and festive ads are appearing on televisions, but John Lewis is always the most anticipated.

More than half a dozen Christmas adverts have already been from retailers including M&S, Sainbsury’s, Asda and Tesco.

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But John Lewis had chosen to keep its audience on tenterhooks, teasing the release of its 2024 ad campaign.

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For the first time ever, the retailer is launching a trio of festive ads with two already having been unveiled.

John Lewis unveiled part one in its series of three ads in September, with the clip themed around the retailer’s “Never Knowingly Undersold” pledge.

The ad, directed by Saatchi and Saatchi, first aired on Channel 4 and shows viewers a single John Lewis shop window through the decades, from the roaring 1920s to modern day.

The second clip, which aired earlier this month, is based around the “Give Knowingly” theme.

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The ad chronicles the ups and downs of one shopper’s pink jumper bought for her by her mum.

The final teaser is a short 10-second clip featuring a sofa on an ice rink in a dark room with winter clothing-clad skaters circling it.

After around seven seconds, a date emerges from the background saying “14.11.24” before fading away.

This reveals the date that the ad will finally hit our screens.

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To make you feel nostalgic ahead of the 2024 John Lewis release, we have rounded up every single John Lewis Christmas advert that’s aired since 2007.

2007 – Shadows

 This was the first John Lewis Christmas advert

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This was the first John Lewis Christmas advert
John Lewis 2007 Christmas ad shows random items creating a moving shadow

In John Lewis’ first Christmas advert, people piled gifts together to create shadows that looked like a woman walking her dog through the snow and having a drink at a party.

It featured the tagline “Whoever you’re looking for this Christmas”.

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The memorable ad was before the era that John Lewis adverts created a huge buzz as social media was barely even a thing at this point.

The music used was Prokofiev’s morning serenade from Romeo and Juliet.

2008 – From Me To You

 John Lewis's From Me To You advert was quite basic

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John Lewis’s From Me To You advert was quite basic
John Lewis 2008 Christmas ad aims to prove there’s a perfect gift for everyone

This was probably the most basic John Lewis advert with the retailer trying to work out which direction its adverts would take.

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Set to a cover of The Beatles‘ From Me To You, it showed how you can find the perfect present for different characters in your life.

It ended with the message: “If you know the person, you’ll find the present.”

2009 – Sweet Child O’ Mine

 2009's advert was about children receiving adult presents

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2009’s advert was about children receiving adult presents
John Lewis 2009 Christmas ad shows children opening presents meant for adults

This was the first year that John Lewis used an acoustic cover of a popular song from the charts.

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Taken By Trees covered Guns N Roses‘s Sweet Child Of Mine as the song for the advert – and it peaked at No23.

It’s a sweet advert which shows children opening adult presents such as an e-reader and large slippers, and says at the end: “Remember how Christmas used to feel? Give someone that feeling.”

2010 – A Tribute To Givers

 This advert shows how people go to great lengths to keep presents a surprise such as sneaking a rocking horse upstairs while children watch TV

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This advert shows how people go to great lengths to keep presents a surprise such as sneaking a rocking horse upstairs while children watch TV
Christmas ads: John Lewis 2010

Ellie Goulding recorded a cover version of Elton John‘s Your Song for this advert – the same tune that appeared in the 2018 film.

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The advert is about the lengths that people go to to surprise their friends and relatives on Christmas Day.

It ends with the words “For those who care about showing they care”.

2011 – The Long Wait

 The Long Wait was one of the first big John Lewis Christmas adverts and had the nation in tears

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The Long Wait was one of the first big John Lewis Christmas adverts and had the nation in tears
Little boy has a surprising long wait in the 2011 John Lewis Christmas ad

This was the first year John Lewis used its advert to tell a whole story, and it made the nation weep.

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It told the story of a little boy impatiently waiting for Christmas and all because he wants to give a heartfelt gift to his two sleepy parents on Christmas morning.

It was set to Slow Moving Millie’s cover of Please, Please, Please Let Me Get What I Want by The Smiths. The tagline was “For gifts you can’t wait to give”.

This was the film that cemented the department store’s reputation as the best Christmas advertiser so we think that has to put it at the top of the list.

2012 – The Journey

 The Journey tells the story of two snowmen in love

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The Journey tells the story of two snowmen in love
Hankies at the ready for the tearjerking 2012 John Lewis Christmas ad

John Lewis’s tale of a snowman who travels over mountains and through horrible weather to bring his snow-girlfriend a scarf to keep her warm was very touching.

It was set to a Gabrielle Aplin cover of The Power of Love by Frankie Goes To Hollywood and had many people shedding tears at the time.

It was the first John Lewis ad track that reached No1 in the singles chart after Ellie Goulding’s Your Song peaked at No2 in 2010.

It finished with the line “Get a little more love this Christmas”.

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2013 – The Bear And The Hare

 The Bear And The Hare was a charming animated tale for the John Lewis Christmas ad

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The Bear And The Hare was a charming animated tale for the John Lewis Christmas ad
Lily Allen sings ‘Somewhere Only We Know’ by Keane for 2013 John Lewis Christmas ad

This charming animated tale tells the story of a bear who has never seen Christmas so his animal friends buy him an alarm clock so he can wake up from hibernation just for the day.

Lily Allen sang a cover of Keane’s Somewhere Only We Know – and it became her third No1 UK single. It’s closing line is “Give someone a Christmas they’ll never forget”.

People went wild for the story at the time and a lot of people on Twitter, now called X, call it the best John Lewis ad the department store has ever made.

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2014 – Monty The Penguin

 Monty the Penguin is one of the John Lewis adverts that people love the best

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Monty the Penguin is one of the John Lewis adverts that people love the best
Monty the Penguin is the star of the 2014 John Lewis Christmas advert

This was the heartwrenching advert about a little boy and his friend Monty The Penguin who wants to find love at Christmas.

He’s revealed to be the boy’s stuffed toy – and under the Christmas tree is a girl penguin toy for Monty to fall in love with.

It featured the tagline “Give someone the Christmas they’ve been dreaming of” and was accompanied by Tom Odell singing John Lennon‘s Real Love.

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If people don’t say The Bear And The Hare is their favourite, they often choose 2014’s advert as the John Lewis ad they like the best.

2015 – Man on the Moon

 The Man On The Moon was the heartfelt tale of a lonely old man who is sent presents from a little girl on Earth

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The Man On The Moon was the heartfelt tale of a lonely old man who is sent presents from a little girl on Earth
‘Man on the Moon’ for the 2015 John Lewis Christmas advert, with Aurora singing ‘Half the World Away’ by Oasis

This advert with the line “Show someone they’re loved this Christmas” really tugged on people’s heartstrings.

It told the story of a little girl who spots a lonely old man living on the moon through her telescope.

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She finds a way to float presents over to him on balloons so he can enjoy Christmas Day too as Aurora’s cover of Oasis‘ Half The World Away plays in the background.

It’s one of John Lewis’s most sentimental and emotional Christmas adverts and definitely had people crying across the nation.

2016 – Buster the Boxer

 Buster The Boxer was 2016's John Lewis advert which was about a trampolining dog

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Buster The Boxer was 2016’s John Lewis advert which was about a trampolining dog
Buster the bouncing Boxer is star of John Lewis Christmas advert 2016

John Lewis decided to mix it up with Buster The Boxer in 2016 by having a funny advert rather than a gut-wrenching sentimental one.

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It told the tale of a dog who was desperate to bounce on his family’s trampoline.

He had to watch foxes, a badger and a hedgehog have fun while his family were asleep.

Then as the little girl runs towards her gift on Christmas Day, Buster gets to it first and starts bouncing. The funny ad ended with “Gifts that everyone will love” and Vaults provided the backing track with a cover of Randy Crawford’s One Day I’ll Fly Away.

Fans loved it, but some people were left a bit disappointed as they didn’t feel like it packed as much of an emotional punch as in previous years.

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2017 -Moz the Monster

 Moz The Monster was the star of the 2017 John Lewis advert

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Moz The Monster was the star of the 2017 John Lewis advert
John Lewis 2017 Christmas advert follows a seven-year-old boy scared of a monster snoozing under his bed — but eventually bond and become friends over a fart

The 2017 advert was about a cuddly blue monster called Moz who befriended a little boy called Joe.

They stayed up together all night every night until Moz realises Joe needs to sleep at night so leaves him a present of a night light under the Christmas tree.

People weren’t as fond of Moz as they were of Buster or Monty, but they still found the advert cute.

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It featured the tagline “For gifts that brighten their world” and The Beatles‘ song Golden Slumbers performed by Elbow, which reached No29 in the charts.

2018 – The Boy And The Piano

 Sir Elton John is seen at the start of the John Lewis advert playing on the piano

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Sir Elton John is seen at the start of the John Lewis advert playing on the pianoCredit: John Lewis
John Lewis Christmas advert 2018 – Watch new ad with Elton John singing Your Song in full

In the 2018 John Lewis ad Elton John starred in its most showbiz-inspired advert yet.

Viewers were taken through key moments in his life, including stadium tours, travelling on a private jet, playing at his local pub and performing at a school.

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But it had a mixed reaction on social media, with not everyone loving the festive ad.

It spanned the veteran singer’s life and showed how a gift of a piano from his grandmother helped make him the international superstar he is today.

And for once it didn’t feature a cover-version of a song, but Elton himself singing his hit Your Song.

The tagline was “Some gifts are more than just a gift”.

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2019 – Excitable Edgar

 The 2019 John Lewis ad - the first joint-effort with its sister retailer Waitrose - follows young girl Ava and her friendship with cute young dragon

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The 2019 John Lewis ad – the first joint-effort with its sister retailer Waitrose – follows young girl Ava and her friendship with cute young dragonCredit: refer to caption.
John Lewis releases its eagerly anticipated Christmas advert starring Excitable Edgar

The 2019 advert is a heart-warming tale of a dragon called Excitable Edgar set in a far-away mythical land.

The ad – the first joint-effort with John Lewis’ sister retailer Waitrose – follows young girl Ava and her friendship with a cute young dragon as his accidental fire-breathing nearly ruins Christmas.

Edgar loves Christmas but every time he gets excited he uncontrollably breathes fire into the medieval-style village causing comical catastrophes.

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The two and a half minute John Lewis Christmas advert follows the pair as they join in with seasonal activities.

It’s backing track is a cover by Bastille’s Dan Smith of 80s classic Can’t Fight This Feeling by REO Speedwagon.

The ad, known as Excitable Edgar, ends with the strapline “Show them how much you care”.

2020 – Give A Little Love

 For John Lewis' 2020 advert, different acts of kindness were featured through nine scenes

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For John Lewis’ 2020 advert, different acts of kindness were featured through nine scenes
John Lewis Christmas advert 2020 – Give A Little Love ad sees impact of random acts of kindness in lockdown

In a nod to the Covid pandemic which ground the country to a standstill, John Lewis’ 2020 Christmas advert was inspired by random acts of kindness during lockdown.

It features different acts of kindness through nine different live action and animation scenes.

Heart-warming shots include a little girl helping a boy get his football down from the tree using a heart umbrella, a group of pigeons taking a sad hedgehog on a ride in a plane, and a young couple delivering a bag of shopping to two pensioners.

The ad was put together mostly via Zoom because of the Covid lockdowns, and features an original song by British soul singer Celeste.

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Eight artists helped create the different scenes, including Chris Hopewell, who has created music videos for Radiohead and Franz Ferdinand, and French animator Sylvian Chomet.

2021 – The Unexpected Guest

 The 2021 John Lewis advert featured an alien

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The 2021 John Lewis advert featured an alienCredit: PA
Watch the John Lewis Christmas advert 2021 a heart-warming story where a teen teaches an alien about festive traditions

 

In its 2021 Christmas ad called The Unexpected Guest, a teenage boy called Nathan meets an alien named Skye who has crash landed on earth.

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Through friendship Nathan shows Skye a series of festive family traditions.

They decorate a tree, eat mince pies, throw snowballs, and watch a Christmas movie.

But the advert has a bittersweet ending, as Skye has fixed her ship and must return home.

In a tear-jerking moment, Nathan gifts Skye his Christmas jumper – the same one he was wearing the day they met.

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The soundtrack is performed by Lola Young, a 20-year-old singer-songwriter from South London, with a version of “Together in Electric Dreams”.

2022 – The Beginner

 John Lewis Christmas ad 2022

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John Lewis Christmas ad 2022Credit: John Lewis and Partners
John Lewis Christmas advert 2022 – Emotional ad about foster dad is guaranteed to have you in tears

The John Lewis 2022 advert was released on November 10. 

The retailer wanted to use its ad, named The Beginner, to help raise awareness of some of the most vulnerable children in the country. 

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It follows a middle-aged man as he struggles to master the skill of skateboarding. 

He has a few mishaps and tumbles off the skateboard a number of times. 

His wife looks bemused at his efforts and concerned when he struggles to put the star on the top of the Christmas tree due to his aching muscles – but he perseveres with the slightly odd hobby.  

You’re left wondering why he’s so determined to learn to skate until the final scene, where there’s a knock at their front door. 

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We see a social worker standing with Ellie, a young teenager, who is waiting anxiously to enter her new foster home, with a skateboard in her hand.

The importance of the skateboard suddenly becomes clear as the man says he likes to skate too. 

You realise that he has been looking for a way to find common ground with Ellie. 

It ends by saying: “Over 108,000 children in the UK are in the care system.

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“We’re making a long-term commitment to support the futures of young people from care.” 

It is the heartfelt story of one man’s determination to connect with a child, showing the power that kindness can make to someone else’s life. 

The accompanying soundtrack is a cover of Blink 182’s All The Small Things sung by little-known US artist Mike Geier.

Last year’s John Lewis ad was about a little boy’s quest for the perfect Christmas tree, befriending a playful character along the way.

 

The advert starts as eight-year-old Alfie picks up a seed to grow a “Christmas tree” at a flea market with his grandma.

 

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As he nurtures the little seed at home, it quickly grows into an energetic and mischievous Venus flytrap named Snapper.

 

The fast-growing wannabe Christmas tree becomes a life force with its playful personality and gets in on all the festivities, but it eventually comes to an abrupt halt.

 

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When Snapper grows so big that he tears Christmas decorations at the house, he’s cast outside in the cold by the family.

 

The tearjerking moment leaves Alfie heartbroken, who’s set on not freezing him out.

 

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The advert ends as Snapper is embraced back into family life when Alfie and the family join him in the garden to give Christmas gifts.

 

The playful plant gobbles up all the wrapped Christmas gifts only to keep the wrapping paper and give back the prezzies to the family.

 

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The music is provided by famous opera artist Andrea Bocelli who performs a song called “Festa”, which means celebration.

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