Crypto World
Bitcoin Undervalued vs Gold: Analyst Signals Rally Ahead
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is widely cited as undervalued when measured against traditional stores of value like gold and the broad money supply, according to Samson Mow, the chief executive of Bitcoin technology firm Jan3. In a Saturday post on X, Mow argued that BTC sits roughly 24% to 66% below its trend relative to gold’s market cap or the level of global liquidity, while gold itself appears overextended. The claim adds a contrarian note to ongoing debates about whether crypto markets have found a bottom or are simply pausing before another leg lower or higher.
At the same time, macro price benchmarks paint a mixed picture. Gold futures for April delivery closed at $5,247.90, while tokenized gold offering PAX Gold USD was trading around $5,404.14 as of the time of writing. Against that backdrop, Mow pointed to Bitcoin’s Z-score—a metric that gauges how closely BTC’s current price tracks its long-run average relative to a benchmark, in this case the BTC-to-gold ratio. A Z-score of 0 means the price aligns with the historical average; negative values signal the asset trading below that average.
The Z-score for the BTC-to-gold ratio was around -1.24 at press time, suggesting BTC remains below its historical mean but not by the extreme margins seen in past episodes. Data from TradingView shows that the indicator has swung widely in the past, including moments when the ratio dipped far beneath the norm. In November 2022, for instance, the BTC-to-gold Z-score briefly plunged below -3, a period coinciding with the FTX collapse and a subsequent rally in BTC of more than 150% over the following 12 months.
This history of decisive rebounds after deep dislocations is echoed by earlier cycles. During the Covid crisis in March 2020, the Z-score dipped below -2 and BTC bottomed near $3,717, only to surge more than 300% in the ensuing year, culminating in a then-astronomical peak in November 2021 of around $69,000. Those patterns have led some analysts to draw parallels with today, while others caution that the macro and regulatory landscape has evolved, potentially altering how these signals play out in real time.
While Mow highlights potential upside based on valuation gaps and historical Z-score triggers, others in the market remain wary. A cross-section of analysts has projected further downside for BTC as investor sentiment wavers in the face of geopolitical tension and persistent macro uncertainty. Some believe the market could test lower levels, with discussions framing a possible move toward new lows for the current cycle. Yet even within this more cautious camp, the same data points used by Mow—value signals and on-chain momentum—are often cited as important clues for the next meaningful directional shift.
For context, the broader crypto narrative has included crosscurrents—from tailwinds such as institutional interest and macro liquidity to headwinds like regulatory risk and episodic liquidity squeezes. The focal point for many observers remains Bitcoin’s role as a potential hedge or as a risk-on asset depending on the moment, as well as how it weathers macro shocks and liquidity cycles. The weekend’s developments in the Middle East added another layer of geopolitical risk, underscoring that crypto markets, like traditional markets, are not insulated from global events.
As the debate about BTC’s trajectory evolves, the market is reminded of past cycles where valuation gaps and extreme sentiment extremes have preceded sharp reversals. The question remains whether the current price near the mid-to-high $60,000s will reflect a duration that negates those earlier patterns or whether a more persistent risk-off mood will push Bitcoin toward the lower end of the spectrum before new catalysts emerge.
In sum, while the price action continues to oscillate near current levels, the ongoing discussion about BTC’s fair value relative to gold and the money supply—augmented by Z-score analysis—provides a framework for assessing potential turning points. The next few weeks could test the resilience of the current range, particularly if the BTC-to-gold ratio reverts toward its historic mean or if macro developments reassert their dominance over market sentiment.
The Z-score framework has shown that when BTC-to-gold moves extend beyond historical norms, corrections or rallies often follow in subsequent months. The current reading around -1.24 keeps the door open to a test of higher ground if support holds and risk appetite returns.
Bitcoin to crash to $50,000?
The contrarian view presented here sits against a broader chorus of analysts who warn that more downside could be on the horizon, driven by ongoing investor caution and geopolitical tensions. Several observers have flagged the possibility of BTC tracing a path toward the $50,000 mark, arguing that price action could mirror or exceed prior bear-market patterns as macro data and regulatory signals unfold. By contrast, those who emphasize valuation and historical precedents point to the same indicators that historically preceded significant rallies following sharp declines, suggesting that a bottom could be forming even as volatility remains elevated.
The ongoing debate about BTC’s bottoming process is not just about price—it touches on liquidity dynamics, risk sentiment, and the durability of crypto-specific catalysts such as on-chain activity, mining economics, and institutional participation. As BTC hovers in a range, traders will likely scrutinize key technical levels, the pace of liquidity inflows, and how macro shocks translate into risk-on or risk-off moves across crypto markets.
Ultimately, the discussion centers on how investors interpret valuation signals in the context of a still-fragile macro environment and evolving regulatory expectations. While some forecasts call for a dramatic re-rating, others argue that a sustainable recovery could emerge as confidence builds and fundamentals align with price action. The next leg of this narrative will be shaped by the balance between speculative momentum and real-world utility that continues to define the crypto market’s longer-term trajectory.
Why it matters
Valuation-driven arguments like Mow’s underscore a broader point: crypto markets are not merely driven by narratives or hype but by measurable relationships to broader financial assets. If Bitcoin’s price starts to close the gap with gold and money supply on a sustained basis, it would alter the risk-reward calculus for both retail and institutional participants, potentially reshaping portfolio allocations and hedging strategies.
Moreover, the BTC-to-gold comparison frames how crypto assets are perceived in the context of traditional stores of value. A shift back toward historical norms in this ratio could signal renewed appetite for crypto as a non-sovereign store of value or a diversification vehicle, even as gold remains a familiar anchor for risk management. These dynamics matter not only for traders but also for developers, miners, and fund managers evaluating how crypto markets fit into broader exposure targets.
From a market structure perspective, such signals also influence liquidity flows, cross-asset correlations, and the pace at which crypto products—like ETFs and exchange-based investment vehicles—can attract new money. In an environment where macro volatility is a persistent feature, signals that imply potential volatility compression or expansion will be watched closely by participants seeking to calibrate risk and reward.
What to watch next
- Monitor BTC price action relative to the -2 and -3 Z-score thresholds for BTC-to-gold, noting whether the ratio reverts toward the mean or diverges further.
- Track the BTC-to-gold ratio on TradingView for signs of momentum shifts that align with macro liquidity trends or risk-on/off sentiment shifts.
- Watch macro indicators and regulatory updates that affect crypto liquidity and investor confidence, especially in regions with active policy debates.
- Observe major price drivers such as exchange capital flows, mining economics, and the pace of adoption in institutional and retail channels.
Sources & verification
- Samson Mow, X post discussing Bitcoin valuation relative to gold and global money supply (link provided in original coverage).
- TradingView data for the BTC-to-gold ratio (BTCXAU) used to illustrate the Z-score dynamics.
- Historical references to the FTX collapse and subsequent BTC rally from Cointelegraph coverage.
- Cointelegraph reporting on the Covid-era price dynamics and BTC’s subsequent rally to multi-year highs.
- Link to tokenized Gold price (PAX Gold USD) cited in the market context of gold price benchmarks.
Bitcoin valuation signals and potential reversal
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) sits at a crossroads flagged by valuation comparisons and a momentum metric that has historically preceded meaningful moves. Samson Mow’s main contention is that BTC is notably undervalued relative to gold’s market cap and the broader money supply—an assessment grounded in quantitative gaps rather than pure sentiment. Specifically, he points to a calibration where Bitcoin’s current level is roughly 24% to 66% below its trend line when juxtaposed with gold’s market capitalization or the extent of global liquidity. By contrast, gold, a traditional hedge, is described as overextended in this framing.
The argument leans heavily on the BTC-to-gold Z-score, a gauge of how far the price of BTC deviates from its long-run average when measured against gold. At the moment, the Z-score hovers around -1.24, indicating BTC is below its historical mean but not in territory that has inexorably presaged a parabolic rally. In the past, however, the same metric has signaled powerful reversals: during November 2022, the ratio’s Z-score dipped beneath -3, a backdrop that preceded a roughly 150% advance in BTC over the following year as traders digested the FTX collapse and the broader liquidity environment.
Historical analogies are a recurring feature of crypto markets, and the Covid-19 period is often cited in tandem with the Z-score narrative. In March 2020, the metric slipped below -2 and BTC carved a bottom near $3,717 before staging a multi-hundred percent recovery in the subsequent 12 months, culminating in the 2021 rally that took prices to the vicinity of $69,000. Those episodes illustrate how valuation gaps paired with macro stress can coincide with outsized upside if demand returns and risk appetite stabilizes.
Yet the current cycle carries its own wrinkles. Some analysts project further downside as investors absorb macro uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, with price targets that contemplate a move toward the $50,000 area. Others maintain that the combination of a reversion toward historical norms in BTC’s valuation relative to gold and a renewed willingness to allocate capital to crypto assets could spark a fresh leg higher. The truth likely lies somewhere in between, shaped by how swiftly liquidity conditions normalize, how regulation evolves, and how much on-chain activity confirms sustained network utility.
The price backdrop remains fluid, with BTC trading in the mid- to high-$60,000s and a broader market environment that still rewards resilience and clear catalysts. If the underlying relationships continue to align with past cycles—valuation gaps closing, risk sentiment shifting, and liquidity improving—the potential for a renewed price impulse cannot be discounted. Conversely, if macro headwinds intensify or regulatory constraints tighten, the path could tilt toward range-bound behavior or further corrections. Investors should remain vigilant for shifts in the balance of fear and opportunity that have historically driven crypto volatility.
Crypto World
Mysterious Crypto PAC Receives Massive Contributions From US Commerce Secretary’s Old Firm
The Fellowship political action committee (PAC), crypto’s newest lobbying player, recently unveiled in its first fundraising disclosure that it received $10 million dollars in contributions from Cantor Fitzgerald.
The news came days after the group publicly endorsed candidates in six separate races ahead of the November midterm elections.
The Tether Ties Fueling Fellowship PAC
The latest disclosure raised eyebrows, given Cantor Fitzgerald’s close connection with Howard Lutnick, the current US Secretary of Commerce. Before assuming office, Lutnick handed off leadership of his financial services firm to his sons.
The contribution also solidified the Fellowship PAC’s close links to tether. Earlier this month, BeInCrypto reported that the committee appointed Jesse Spiro as its Chairman. Spiro is also the Vice President of Regulatory Affairs at Tether US.
Tether and Cantor Fitzgerald also have a tight relationship, as Cantor holds an ownership interest in Tether and is responsible for safeguarding a significant share of its reserve assets.
In addition to the contribution from Cantor Fitzgerald, Fellowship also received $1 million from the US-based institutional crypto platform, Anchorage Digital.
The disclosure marked the PAC’s first real move after seven months of silence since its formation in September. It arrived alongside a wave of endorsements that Fellowship rolled out on social media across six key races ahead of the midterms.
PAC Targets Key Republican Primary Races
On its X account, Fellowship unveiled a list of endorsed candidates, all of them Republicans.
The endorsements spanned congressional, senatorial, and gubernatorial races across Louisiana, South Carolina, Georgia, Kentucky, and Nebraska.
Among those backed were Alan Wilson, the South Carolina governor candidate, and Pete Ricketts, the incumbent seeking to hold his Nebraska Senate seat.
The PAC also threw its support behind Mike Collins for Georgia Senate, Nate Morris for Kentucky Senate, and two Louisiana candidates: Julia Letlow for Senate and Blake Miguez for House District 5.
According to crypto industry researcher Molly White, the Fellowship PAC directed $850,000 toward Nate Morris’ primary challenge against Andy Barr in the Kentucky Senate Republican race and $350,000 toward incumbent Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts’ re-election bid.
White also flagged that Fellowship PAC funneled $4.5 million to NXUM Group— $3 million for issue advocacy advertising and $1.5 million for the production of ads backing the three campaigns.
NXUM was co-founded by Bo Hines, the former director of Trump’s crypto advisory council, who is now CEO of Tether US.
The post Mysterious Crypto PAC Receives Massive Contributions From US Commerce Secretary’s Old Firm appeared first on BeInCrypto.
A roughly $292 million exploit over the weekend has rattled the crypto industry, exposing vulnerabilities in decentralized finance (DeFi) infrastructure and raising concerns about knock-on effects across lending protocols.
While investigations are still ongoing, early analysis suggests the attack centered on Kelp’s rsETH token — a yield-bearing version of ether (ETH) — and the mechanism used to move assets between blockchains.
The attacker appears to have manipulated that system to create large amounts of tokens without proper backing, then quickly used them as collateral to borrow and drain real assets from lending markets, mostly from Aave , the largest decentralized crypto lender.
The incident is the latest blow to DeFi, happening only a couple weeks after the $285 million exploit of Solana-based protocol Drift, further denting investor trust in the nearly $90 billion crypto sector.
How the attack worked
At a high level, the exploit targeted a LayerZero bridge component — a piece of infrastructure that enables assets to move across different blockchains, Charles Guillemet, CTO of hardware wallet maker Ledger, told CoinDesk in a note.
Bridges typically work by locking assets on one chain and minting equivalent tokens on another. That process depends on a trusted entity — often called an oracle or validator — to confirm deposits.
In this case, Kelp effectively acted as that verifier. According to Guillemet, the system relied on a single-signer setup, meaning just one entity could approve any transactions.
“It seems the attacker was able to sign a message … allowing him to mint large amount of rsETH,” he said. He added that it remains unclear how that access was obtained.
Michael Egorov, founder of Curve Finance, pointed to the same weakness in the system’s configuration.
“Things can happen when you trust one single party — whoever that would be.”
That setup allowed the attacker to effectively create unbacked tokens, even though no corresponding assets were locked on the source chain.
Once minted, the tokens were quickly deployed. The attacker “immediately deposited them in lending protocols mostly Aave to borrow real ETH against,” Guillemet explained.
That maneuver shifted the problem from a single exploit into a broader market issue. DeFi lending platforms are now left holding collateral that may be difficult to unwind, while valuable and liquid assets are already drained.
“Aave was left with rsETH which cannot be really sold and maxborrowed [sic] ETH, so no one can withdraw ETH,” Curve’s Egorov said.
As a result, Aave and other lending protocols may be sitting on hundreds of millions of dollars in questionable collateral and bad debt, he warned, raising concerns of a potential “bank run” dynamic as users rush to withdraw funds.
Aave saw about a $6 billion drop in assets on the protocol as users yanked their assets following the incident. The token associated with the protocol was down about 15% over the past 24 hours’ trading.
What we still don’t know
Key questions remain around how the validator was compromised. The system relied on LayerZero’s official node, raising uncertainty over whether it was hacked, misconfigured or misled.
“Was it hacked? Was it fooled? We don’t know,” Egorov said.
The attacker’s identity is also unknown, though Guillemet said the scale of the attack suggests a sophisticated actor.
“Clearly not some script kiddies,” he said.
Big blow for trust in DeFi
Beyond the immediate losses, the exploit the episode serves as another reminder that as DeFi grows more interconnected, failures in one layer can quickly cascade across the system.
Egorov argued that non-isolated lending models, where assets share risk across pools, amplify the impact of such events.
He also pointed to shortcomings in how new assets are onboarded to lending platforms, saying configurations like Kelp’s 1-of-1 verifier setup should have been flagged earlier.
However, Egorov said there’s a silver lining. “Crypto is a harsh environment which no bank would have survived — yet we are working with that,” he said. “I think DeFi will learn from this incident and become stronger than before.”
Still, even as incidents like this lead to protocol upgrades and redesigns, they also chip away investor confidence in the broader DeFi sector.
“All in all, the trust into DeFi protocols is eroded by this kind of event,” Guillemet said.
“And 2026 will most likely be the worst year in terms of hacks, again,” he added.
Read more: ‘DeFi is dead’: crypto community scrambles after this year’s biggest hack exposes contagion risks
The impact of stablecoins on the banking sector appears “limited” at the current phase of the adoption cycle, but banks could face increasing competition and an erosion of market share as the stablecoin sector and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) grow in market capitalization.
“So far, the use of stablecoins remains limited, but their market capitalization exceeded $300 billion at the end of last year,” Abhi Srivastava, associate vice president of Moody’s Investors Service Digital Economy Group, told Cointelegraph.
The role of stablecoins in payments, cross-border commerce and onchain finance is “expanding,” despite their currently limited role, Srivastava said, adding that existing payment systems in the US are already “fast, low-cost and trusted.” He said:
“For the banking sector, at this stage, disruption risk appears limited. In the near term, US rules that prohibit stablecoins from paying yield mean they are unlikely to replace traditional deposits at scale domestically.”
However, over time, growing adoption of stablecoins and tokenized RWAs, traditional or physical financial assets represented on a blockchain by a token, could place “pressure” on the banking sector, leading to deposit outflows and reduced lending capacity, he said.
Stablecoin regulatory policy has become a hot-button issue among crypto industry executives and those in the banking sector, with fears that yield-bearing stablecoins could erode banking market share proving to be a stumbling block for the CLARITY crypto market structure bill in Congress.
Related: Stablecoins behave like FX markets as liquidity splits: Eco CEO
CLARITY Act stalled, as banks fight yield-bearing stablecoins
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, also known as the CLARITY Act, is a comprehensive crypto market regulatory framework that establishes an asset taxonomy, regulatory jurisdiction and oversight over the crypto markets.
It is now stalled in Congress after a group of crypto industry companies, led by cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, publicly stated opposition to earlier drafts of the bill.
A lack of legal protections for open-source software developers and a prohibition on yield-bearing stablecoins were among some of the most contentious issues cited by crypto industry opponents of the legislation.
Several attempts have been made by US lawmakers and the White House to negotiate a bill acceptable to both the crypto industry and the bank lobby.
Earlier this month, North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis said he plans to release an updated draft bill proposal that would be acceptable to both sides; however, the bill has reportedly received pushback, according to Politico, and has yet to be publicly released.
However, other crypto industry executives and market analysts have warned that if the CLARITY Act fails to pass, it could open the crypto industry up to future regulatory crackdowns by hostile lawmakers and officials.
Magazine: Stablecoins will see explosive growth in 2025 as world embraces asset class
Artificial intelligence captured roughly $242 billion in venture capital funding during Q1 2026, accounting for 80% of all global startup investment in the quarter.
The figures mark a record quarter as total global venture investment reached approximately $300 billion across some 6,000 funded companies.
Mega-Rounds Drive AI Funding Surge
Four deals accounted for 65% of all global venture capital. OpenAI raised $122 billion, Anthropic secured $30 billion, xAI closed $20 billion, and Waymo brought in $16 billion. AI funding in Q1 alone exceeded all of 2025 combined.
However, the capital flood is hitting physical limits. A Bloomberg report found that roughly half of US AI data centers planned for 2026 have been delayed or cancelled.
Transformer shortages, grid strain, and supply chain bottlenecks are limiting the buildout. Only about one-third of the projected 12 GW of new capacity is under active construction.
AI Agents Enter the Workplace
Meanwhile, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong revealed the exchange is testing AI agents that operate alongside human employees in Slack and email.
Armstrong suggested Coinbase could eventually have more AI agents than human staff, reflecting a broader corporate shift toward autonomous systems.
The workplace transformation has also reignited political debate. Elon Musk proposed “universal HIGH INCOME” via federal government checks, arguing AI productivity would offset inflation. Andrew Yang echoed the call, urging faster action on AI-funded universal income.
Senator Bernie Sanders pushed back from a different angle, warning that AI firms plan to spend $300 million on 2026 midterm elections.
Sanders called on Democrats to resist industry pressure and confront what he called “the AI Oligarchs.”
The tension between record capital inflows and infrastructure bottlenecks suggests AI’s growth trajectory may face near-term friction even as its economic influence accelerates.
The post AI Absorbs $242 Billion in Q1 Venture Funding, Exceeding All of 2025 Combined appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Tron founder Justin Sun publicly called on the KelpDAO bridge hacker to negotiate a return of the stolen funds, warning that a $292 million loss could bring down both Aave and KelpDAO.
Sun’s appeal followed the largest Decentralized Finance (DeFi) exploit of 2026, which drained 116,500 rsETH from KelpDAO’s cross-chain bridge on April 18.
Sun Moves Funds as Aave Takes the Hit
The attacker exploited a flaw in KelpDAO’s LayerZero-powered bridge, forging cross-chain messages to release rsETH without corresponding token burns.
The stolen tokens were then deposited as collateral on Aave V3, where the hacker borrowed large volumes of Wrapped Ether (WETH) against them.
Because the rsETH became unbacked, the positions are effectively unliquidatable, leaving Aave with over $236 million in bad debt.
Aave froze rsETH markets on both V3 and V4 within hours. Aave founder Stani Kulechov confirmed the exploit originated outside Aave’s contracts.
On-chain data shows Sun urgently withdrew 65,584 ETH, worth roughly $154 million, from Aave and deposited it into Spark shortly after.
His total Aave exposure has reportedly dropped to $380 million, while his Sky and Spark holdings have risen to $2.13 billion.
“OK — Kelpdao hacker, how much you want? Let’s just talk. With KelpDAO’s help, of course. It’s simply not worth it to sacrifice both Aave and KelpDAO and let them go down over this hack,” wrote Justin Sun in a post.
Interoperability protocol Axelar also responded, expressing solidarity with LayerZero and urging the industry to adopt stronger bridge security standards.
Axelar pointed to the importance of multi-validator configurations, noting that Kelp’s single-validator setup may have enabled the breach.
The exploit overtakes the $285 million Drift Protocol hack from April 1 as the largest DeFi loss this year.
The post Justin Sun Offers to Negotiate With KelpDAO Hacker After $292 Million Exploit appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
AI startup Cursor in talks to raise $2 billion funding round at valuation of over $50 billion
The Cursor logo arranged on a smartphone in New Hyde Park, New York, Nov. 20, 2025.
Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Artificial intelligence startup Cursor is in talks to raise a $2 billion fundraising round at an over $50 billion valuation, which does not include the investment, a source familiar with the matter told CNBC.
Andreessen Horowitz is slated to co-lead the new investment round, in which Nvidia and Thrive Capital are also expected to participate, said the source, who was not authorized to publicly speak on the investment. Those three firms have all previously backed the AI coding startup.
Bloomberg News first reported that Cursor was raising capital.
The funding round underscores the venture capital industry’s enthusiasm for startups specializing in AI coding agents that can complete a range of software development tasks for users. Although Cursor was among the first major startups to focus on AI coding agents, other companies, such as Google, Anthropic and OpenAI, have since debuted similar tools.
Cursor announced in November that it closed a $2.3 billion funding round at a $29.3 billion post-money valuation. That financing came after a $900 million investment round in June.
Among Cursor’s current investors are Accel, DST Global, Coatue and Google, according to a corporate blog post.
The startup released in February various updates intended to help software developers, including giving AI agents the ability to test their coding changes and record their actions via videos, logs and screenshots.
Cursor did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
WATCH: Cursor CEO Michael Truell: We’re seeing success with our AI age, not just demand
Bitcoin’s current market cycle is broadly viewed as weaker than its three prior halving-driven runs, according to Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn. By weighing price action since the April 2024 halving against the patterns seen in 2012, 2016 and 2020, Thorn argues that volatility has cooled and upside potential appears more constrained this time around. Notably, the all-time high above $125,000, reached on Oct. 5, 2025, was only about 97% above the 2024 halving price near $63,000, illustrating a markedly tamer peak for the cycle so far.
Thorn’s comparisons hinge on a stark difference in how cycles unfold. The 2012 halving cycle saw a roughly 9,294% price surge to around $1,163; 2016 delivered about a 2,950% surge to near $19,891; and the 2020 halving generated a roughly 761% gain. In Thorn’s view, “Cycle four is dramatically underperforming prior cycles,” a conclusion he shared in an X post that raises a bigger question: is this the new normal, or will the cycle evolve in unforeseen ways?
Beyond price trajectories, the market’s behavioral foundations may be shifting. Thorn notes that volatility has declined with each successive halving, suggesting that BTC’s price could become more influenced by factors outside of the four-year cycle theory traditionally cited by traders. The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index has not surpassed 3.11% in the current cycle, with the last reading above that level recorded on Aug. 24, 2024. The latest 30-day figure sits at about 1.75%, according to Bitbo data.
Key takeaways
- Galaxy’s Alex Thorn concludes the current BTC cycle is dramatically weaker than the 2012, 2016 and 2020 halving cycles when comparing price action since the April 2024 halving.
- The all-time high above $125,000 in October 2025 was roughly 97% above the 2024 halving price around $63,000, signaling a much milder top versus prior cycles.
- Volatility has systematically compressed across cycles, with the 30-day BTC volatility staying well below the peaks seen in earlier halvings (latest around 1.75%).
- Market critics point to an early all-time high before the 2024 halving as an anomaly, underscoring that one-off catalysts can distort cycle comparisons.
Market dynamics and the pre-halving anomaly
Another layer of complexity comes from an event-driven impulse that disrupted typical cycle timing. BTC briefly hit an all-time high above $70,000 in March 2024—one month before the April 2024 halving. Analysts have attributed part of the outsized early move to the subsequent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States in January 2024, which acted as a catalyst for price acceleration ahead of the halving. This premature peak is frequently cited by critics as a meaningful deviation from the classic halving-driven narrative.
In parallel, Fidelity Digital Assets has observed that Bitcoin’s drawdowns in this cycle have been less severe than in past bear markets. While declines of 80%–90% are not unheard of in older cycles, the drop from the all-time high to later troughs has so far been more contained in this phase. Fidelity’s analysis notes that even a journey back from peak levels remains substantial—BTC pulled back from the late-2021 highs to the roughly $60,000 area, a move just over 50% in magnitude from the peak levels cited by Fidelity’s framework.
Near-term outlook and the long arc
March brought a contrarian take from Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, who said BTC is close to bottoming and that a gradual recovery could begin in 2026. While such forecasts hinge on a confluence of macro factors, liquidity conditions, and investor sentiment, they align with a broader sense that BTC may enter a more protracted phase of consolidation after 2025’s peak, rather than repeating the rapid, cycle-driven surges seen in earlier eras.
As of the latest readings, Bitcoin was trading near $74,703, with fresh momentum up modestly over the past week. The price backdrop underscores Thorn’s observation of a more muted cycle, even as headlines around regulatory clarity, ETF developments, and institutional participation continue to influence sentiment.
What to watch next
The immediate question for investors and builders alike is whether this cycle’s subdued volatility and mixed momentum represent a lasting regime shift or a temporary deviation sparked by unique catalysts. Key developments to monitor include how macro conditions interact with BTC’s supply-demand dynamics, any concrete shifts in ETF-related inflows, and whether the market can align around a clearer, more repeatable set of catalysts akin to past halving narratives. As the market evolves, readers should watch for signs that long-run adoption, liquidity depth, and regulatory clarity begin shaping BTC’s trajectory in a way that differentiates this cycle from its predecessors.
El Salvador President Nayib Bukele sits atop a global leader approval chart with a 94% rating, far outpacing every other head of state on the list.
The ranking measures approval for 26 world leaders. Bukele’s dominance highlights a striking detail for the crypto industry. The president who went furthest on sovereign Bitcoin (BTC) adoption is also the most popular leader on Earth right now.
The Bitcoin President Still Stacks Daily
El Salvador became the first country to make Bitcoin legal tender in 2021. The government continues purchasing roughly one BTC per day, pushing its national reserve past 7,600 BTC.
Polls show, however, that security gains from Bukele’s gang crackdown drive his approval far more than the Bitcoin experiment itself.
Only 2.2% of Salvadorans cited BTC as his biggest failure in a recent CID Gallup survey.
Where Other Leaders Stand on Crypto
South Korea’s Lee Jae-myung (63%) has declared crypto a national priority, pledging spot Bitcoin ETFs and a won-pegged stablecoin by 2026.
Javier Milei (48%) championed Bitcoin deregulation in Argentina but saw his credibility damaged after promoting the LIBRA meme coin, which collapsed and cost investors hundreds of millions.
Donald Trump (38%) signed an executive order establishing a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve funded with seized coins, positioning the country as a future “Bitcoin superpower.”
Most remaining leaders on the list follow standard regulatory frameworks, with several EU heads of state backing stricter oversight through the MiCA regulation.
The chart suggests that bold pro-Bitcoin moves have not hurt leaders politically, even if domestic voters care more about security and the economy than digital assets.
The post The President Who Pushed Bitcoin the Hardest Is Now the Most Popular Leader on Earth appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
Why Does the Next Fed Chair Own SOL Before His April 21 Hearing? Pepeto 300x Rotation Explained
The solana price prediction just picked up a talking point nobody saw coming. Kevin Warsh, Donald Trump’s nominee to chair the Federal Reserve, disclosed indirect Solana holdings across multiple venture fund vehicles in his April 14 ethics filing, per Decrypt, with the Senate confirmation hearing locked for April 21. SOL trades at $85.02 with Bitcoin pushing past $77,300 and the tape finally turning green across the majors.
The numbers look strong, but SOL at a $50 billion market cap is simply too large to print the multiples that reshape a portfolio from a single position. That is where Pepeto steps in, a fresh presale trending hard across crypto feeds this quarter, carrying the kind of traction every cycle signals ahead of returns no large cap can match.
Warsh’s 69 page filing with the Office of Government Ethics lists indirect SOL positions held through the AVGF I venture fund alongside stakes in Optimism, Compound, dYdX, Polymarket, Blast, and more than 30 other Web3 names, per Yahoo Finance. Combined assets top $192 million, making this the broadest Web3 portfolio ever disclosed by a senior US financial nominee.
The Senate Banking hearing lands April 21, the same window that holds the CLARITY Act committee markup and the Fed’s April 28-29 meeting. Spot SOL ETFs have crossed $892 million in net assets, with Bitwise’s BSOL alone pulling $808 million in cumulative inflows per Bitcoin.com. The timing puts SOL at the intersection of every major US monetary and regulatory decision this month.
Solana Price Prediction Compared: SOL Setup and the Presale Opportunity Pepeto
The solana price prediction section below breaks down how even the bullish $180 target spreads across months, and for traders who want more, the audited exchange pulling capital in this quarter is the play worth watching. Pepeto gives retail access to tools large holders previously kept private, wrapped in a single platform.
A contract scanner built into the exchange screens each token before any deposit opens, putting buyers ahead of the news cycle. Presale wallets earn 181% APY through daily compounding staking as the rounds fill, meaning the earliest buyers hold the heaviest positions the second demand peaks.
A risk scoring engine reads momentum across the chain and flags suspect contracts before a dollar moves. The presale has pulled in $9.21 million at $0.0000001865, backed by a SolidProof audit and driven by the founder who pushed Pepe to $7 billion on 420 trillion tokens, now leading this exchange alongside a former Binance executive.
The entry window narrows every hour as the Binance listing draws closer. Once public trading opens, millions of new buyers set the price and the presale floor vanishes on the spot. Every past crypto recovery paid the wallets that moved while the crowd was waking up, and once Pepeto’s Binance listing lands, the 300x runway from presale pricing closes the same day.
Solana (SOL) Price Prediction: Can SOL Reach $180?
Solana (SOL) trades at $85.02 per CoinMarketCap, bouncing with the broader market, still 70% below the $293 peak from November 2021. SOL holders sit at 167 million monthly unique wallets per Solana Foundation data, a record set in April.
Standard Chartered’s $250 target rests on Alpenglow’s 150 millisecond finality upgrade and the spot ETF products giving institutions a regulated route in.
CoinCodex sketches a 2026 channel between $84 and $133.03 with the average near $119. Even the aggressive solana price prediction reaching $180 prints around 103% over several months. Strong for a large cap, but a presale at 300x math from one Binance listing event beats months of chart watching by a wide margin.
Conclusion:
The solana price prediction points at $180 to $250 on a long runway, and that kind of move sounds great until you stack it next to the 300x analysts are calling for on Pepeto presale pricing. Once the gap is visible, the SOL forecast starts looking modest, and the rotation into earlier entries starts to make sense.
The accounts that turned Pepe and DOGE into life changing positions were all built the same way. Capital went in before the coin hit every screen, the deposit held through the first exchange print, and compounding did the lifting from there.
Pepeto runs that exact playbook right now. The raise crossed $9.21 million, fresh capital keeps hitting the contract every day, and the Binance listing creeps closer hour by hour. The wallets depositing at $0.0000001865 today are the ones reading their own names in the millionaire headlines the next cycle writes.
Click To Visit Pepeto Website To Enter The Presale
FAQs
What does the solana price prediction target for 2026?
Standard Chartered places Solana (SOL) at $250 and CoinCodex models a $119 average for 2026, with $180 as a mid cycle target from the current $85.02 level. Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh disclosed SOL holdings in his April 14 filing ahead of an April 21 Senate hearing, while Pepeto at presale pricing targets 300x.
How does Solana (SOL) compare to Pepeto as an entry today?
Solana (SOL) at $85.02 projects toward $133 to $180 through 2026 per CoinCodex and Standard Chartered. Pepeto at $0.0000001865 with $9.21 million raised and a Binance listing days away offers a presale to listing return that beats even the strongest solana price prediction.
Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.
Crypto World
BitGo, Polygon Among Industry Giants Pushing Rate Limits After The Largest DeFi Exploit of 2026
A wave of protocol-level security responses followed the $292 million KelpDAO rsETH exploit on April 19, with BitGo, Polygon, and Katana moving swiftly to isolate potential contagion.
The attack drained 116,500 rsETH from Kelp DAO’s LayerZero-powered cross-chain bridge through a forged message that bypassed its Decentralized Verifier Network (DVN) configuration.
Protocols Move to Contain Fallout
BitGo, alongside BiT Global Trust, took down the LayerZero OFT DVNs for Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) as a precaution. The firm confirmed that user funds remain secure and pledged to share updates as more information becomes available.
Polygon stated that its chain, Agglayer, and broader ecosystem remain unaffected by the incident. The network noted it has safely processed over $2 trillion to date.
Katana paused the OFT path on Vaultbridge, which relied on a 2/3 DVN setup. Bridging through Agglayer, which verifies with zero-knowledge proofs rather than proof-of-authority multisigs, remained fully available.
Meanwhile, Cyvers CTO and co-founder Meir Dolev revealed that KelpDAO was just three minutes away from losing an additional $100 million. A rapid-response blacklist blocked the attacker before a second attempt could succeed.
Industry Leaders Call for Structural Rate Limits
The exploit has reignited calls for built-in rate limits across DeFi protocols. Ethena contributor Guy Young argued that asset issuers should implement throttled cross-chain transfers on top of standard LayerZero OFTs.
“We built a solution on top of the standard OFT to throttle cross chain transfers at $10m per hour for every DVN, in addition to the $10m per block rate limit on the mint contract. The former would have prevented Kelp, the latter Resolv,” he wrote.
Ethena’s configuration caps potential damage at $10 million per chain per hour even if a DVN is fully compromised. Young called the slight inconvenience for users a worthwhile tradeoff to avoid catastrophic losses.
Keone Hon, CEO and co-founder of Monad, proposed that pooled lending protocols adopt “smart caps” that limit how quickly collateral supply can grow.
He pointed to the Resolv hack in March, where the attacker minted infinite tokens but could only extract $24 million because exit pathways were small.
Hon argued that high supply caps should be seen as a liability, not a sign of stature. A supply limit slightly above current utilization, adjusting over hours to the true cap, would have saved rsETH depositors $200 million, he estimated.
The KelpDAO breach is now the largest DeFi exploit of 2026. Whether protocols adopt the rate-limiting measures these leaders are proposing may determine how large the next one gets.
The post BitGo, Polygon Among Industry Giants Pushing Rate Limits After The Largest DeFi Exploit of 2026 appeared first on BeInCrypto.
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