Business
Oil shock, AI worries to weigh on Indian markets amid rising global uncertainty
On Sunday, Saudi Arabia was down 2.5%, Oman fell 1.6%, and Bahrain was down 1%. The sell-off in the Gulf market is a harbinger of what’s in store for other markets, including India, when trading opens on Monday.
“A gap-down opening on Monday remains possible because a spike in oil prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions in the Gulf could weigh on Indian businesses,” said Sham Chandak, head of institutional equities at Elios Financial Services.
Barclays said Brent crude could hit $100 a barrel, citing the threat of a potential supply disruption. Fears of the US’s attack on Iran drove Brent to a seven-month high of $72.87 on Friday, but markets were hoping that both countries would resume negotiations over the long-running nuclear dispute this week after talks remained inconclusive till the weekend. Oil shipping has been largely disrupted in the Strait of Hormuz – the critical artery linking the oil-rich Persian Gulf to the open seas – after US-Israeli strikes on Iran, with several tanker operators pausing voyages and Iran’s state-media warning that the waterway is effectively closed.
“Markets are likely to move from earnings-driven to oil-driven trading in the near term,” said JM Financial Institutional Securities in a client note. “Indian markets are likely to see a gap-down opening with elevated volatility amid global risk-off sentiment.”
The heightened risk-aversion could drive up prices of gold and silver, while boosting demand for the US dollar. When oil prices surge, it triggers inflationary pressures, making gold and silver more attractive to protect investor wealth. Similarly, when oil prices rise, the demand for the US dollar typically increases because crude is valued in the American currency.
JM said every $ 1 rise in crude increases India’s annual import bill by $2 billion, putting pressure on the trade balance. Upstream energy stocks such as Oil India and ONGC, along with defence names such as Hindustan Aeronautics and Bharat Electronics, may gain, while oil marketing companies, paints, tyres, aviation and chemicals may come under pressure on account of higher oil prices, it said.
March Seasonality
Historically, March has been a relatively stronger month for the markets, but that seasonal trend could face some challenges this time.
“We are entering March with caution despite historically strong positive seasonality, as global and domestic headwinds continue to weigh on Indian markets,” said Sriram Velayudhan, senior vice -president, IIFL Capital Services.
In the past decade, the Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 have remained positive in eight out of 10 years, with average returns of 0.8% for both indices, said Chandan Taparia, head of technical and derivatives research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Elios’s Chandak said that if tensions persist, foreign portfolio investors may reduce exposure to risk assets, including emerging markets.
FPIs had turned buyers of equities worth ‘19,782 crore in February after selling in the range of ‘11,000-34,000 crore in the previous three months.
Business
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What You May Expect From Tim Cook’s ‘Big Week’ of Launches

Apple is reportedly gearing up for massive announcements which are expected to take place during the first week of March.
Tim Cook himself previously teased the upcoming event right at the start of March, with new technologies set to be unveiled starting Monday.
Apple March 2026 Event: What to Expect?
Here are the products that may be coming in this week’s announcements as previously discussed by Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman:
- iPhone 17e with A19 chip
- 12th Generation iPad with A18 chip
- M4 iPad Air
- M5 MacBook Air
- MacBook Pro with M5 Pro and Max chip
- Entry-level/Low-cost MacBook
- Mac Studio with M5 Max and/or Ultra chip
- Studio Display 2
In the latest Power On newsletter by Gurman (via MacRumors), the analyst revealed that Apple employees are expecting a massive announcement sometime between Monday, March 2, and Wednesday, March 4.
It was also revealed that Apple’s preparations for the new products are similar to how it preps for new iPhones that are released in the fall season.
Tim Cook: ‘Big Week’ to Start March
In the last week of February, Cook shared a post via X which officially confirmed the upcoming series of announcements starting March 2.
Here, Cook revealed that Apple is gearing up for a “big week ahead,” further teasing that the company has multiple launches for its spring releases.
Cook’s video did not reveal any specifics on which products are being released as the video only showed the Apple logo being formed from a shape.
However, many are already speculating that the new Apple logo for this upcoming March 2026 series of launches is already teasing the new color options for the low-cost MacBook.
Originally published on Tech Times
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Nifty IT in sell-on-rise mode, may fall another 8-10%: Rupak De
Edited excerpts from a chat:
Nifty ended last week around 1% lower as IT stocks pulled the index down. How do you see the market shaping up in the first week of March?
Nifty ended the week on a negative note due to the fall on the last day, when it slipped below the 200 DMA, confirming a negative sentiment that might persist for a few more days. The week started with selling in IT stocks, but the selling pressure spilled over into heavyweight Reliance and the realty pack. The final nail in the coffin came from the strongest sector, banks. The Bank Nifty slipped below the 21 EMA for the first time in many days, giving rise to a cautious sentiment. Going into March, I expect the stage to be set for a weak market, at least in the first half of the month. Support on the lower end is visible at 24,500. On the higher end, resistance is placed at 25,500, above which sentiment might improve slightly.
In the last 3 days, Nifty IT attempted to climb up. What do you think is this a dead cat bounce or sustainable uptrend? Is it too early to say that IT stocks have bottomed out?
The last three-day bounce in the IT space was feeble, limited, and unconvincing. As the index fell below the previous swing low, more investors unwound their long positions, as risk-averse sentiment in the space is in place, not the other way around. I believe that as long as it remains below 31,500, the index is likely to remain a sell on rise. On the lower end, we might see another round of selling in the space, taking the index down by another 8–10%.
In the last 3 trading sessions, have we seen shorts winding up in IT stocks?
I don’t feel so; in fact, more people sold on the bounce, leading to a fall from the three-day high.
Metals are doing well. What are the charts telling you?
Metals did really well, ending the month as gainers, but the momentum seems to be lacking, as the proximity to the upper band of the rising channel has led to lackluster movement. I believe there is a strong possibility of further correction in the space. However, the fundamental difference between metals and IT is that metals still remain a buy on dips, but the same cannot be said for IT.
Tejas was the biggest gainer in the week. How would you trade the stock now?
The stock generally moves up to give a one-off kind of rally and then retraces back below the previous low, which has been the phenomenon for more than a year. However, this time it seems to be a bit different, as the price rise was backed by significantly higher volume. The follow-through buying on the second day is also a confirming factor. The stock should be held or bought with a stop loss of 400, while on the higher end, it might move towards 550.
Give us your top ideas of the week.
Buy CHENNAIPETRO 962 | SL 929 | TGT 1010
The stock has given a decent upside breakout, leading to a definitive rise in positive sentiment, as more buyers are now willing to pay higher prices for the same stock. The 21 EMA and 50 DMA are in a bullish crossover, giving a thumbs up to a positive trend. The RSI is in a bullish crossover. Over the short term, the trend is likely to favor the bulls, with potential to reach 1010, while support is placed at 929.
Buy SAILIFE 998 | SL 964 | TGT 1040
The stock has given a previous swing high breakout, leading to an increase in positive sentiment. The price has been sustaining above the 21 EMA and 50 DMA, giving a thumbs up to a positive trend. The RSI is in a bullish crossover. Over the short term, the trend is likely to favor the bulls, with potential to reach 1040, while support is placed at 964.
Sell AXISBANK 1383 | SL 1416 | TGT 1330
The stock has given a consolidation breakdown, raising a bearish view on the stock. On the hourly chart, the stock price has fallen below the 21 EMA, suggesting the emergence of a negative trend. The hourly RSI is in a bearish crossover. On the lower end, it might fall towards 1330, while resistance is placed at 1416, above which sentiment might improve.
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