Science & Environment
Oil could plunge to $40 in 2025 if OPEC unwinds voluntary production cuts, analysts say
A pump jack in Midland, Texas, US, on Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024.
Anthony Prieto | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Oil prices may see a drastic fall in the event that oil alliance OPEC+ unwinds its existing output cuts, said market watchers who are predicting a bearish year ahead for crude.
“There is more fear about 2025’s oil prices than there has been since years — any year I can remember, since the Arab Spring,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, an oil price reporting agency.
“You could get down to $30 or $40 a barrel if OPEC unwound and didn’t have any kind of real agreement to rein in production. They’ve seen their market share really dwindle through the years,” Kloza added.
A decline to $40 a barrel would mean around a 40% erasure of current crude prices. Global benchmark Brent is currently trading at $72 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures are around $68 per barrel.
Oil prices year-to-date
Given that oil demand growth next year probably won’t be much more than 1 million barrels a day, a full unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts in 2025 would “undoubtedly see a very steep slide in crude prices, possibly toward $40 a barrel,” Henning Gloystein, head of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, told CNBC.
Similarly, MST Marquee’s senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic posited that should OPEC+ unwind cuts without regard to demand, it would “effectively amount to a price war over market share that could send oil to lows not seen since Covid.”
However, the alliance is more likely to opt for a gradual unwinding early next year, compared to a full scale and immediate one, the analysts said.
Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double.
Martoccia Francesco
Energy strategist at Citi
The oil cartel has been exercising discipline in maintaining its voluntary output cuts, to the point of extending them.
In September, OPEC+ postponed plans to begin gradually rolling back on the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts by two months in an effort to stem the slide of oil prices. The 2.2 million bpd cut, which was implemented over the second and third quarters, had been due to expire at the end of September.
At the start of this month, the oil cartel again decided to delay the planned oil output increase by another month to the end of December.
Oil prices have been weighed by a sluggish post-Covid recovery in demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy and leading crude oil importer. In its monthly report released Tuesday, OPEC lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.6 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day.
The pressured prices were also conflagrated by a perceivably oversupplied market, especially as key oil producers outside the OPEC alliance like the U.S., Canada, Guyana and Brazil are also planning to add supply, Gloystein highlighted.
Bearish year ahead for oil
The market consensus is that there’ll be a “substantial” oil stock build next year, said Citibank energy strategist Martoccia Francesco.
“Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double… reaching as much as 1.6 million barrels per day,” said Francesco.
Even if OPEC+ doesn’t unwind the cuts, the future ofl prices is still looking break. Citi analysts expect Brent price to average $60 per barrel next year.
Further fueling the bearish outlook is the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whose return is associated by some with a potential trade war, said analysts who spoke to CNBC.
“If we do get a trade war — and a lot of economists think that a trade war is possible, and particularly against China — we could see much, much lower prices,” said OPIS’ Kloza.
Trump has also touted a “drill baby drill” policy for U.S. producers, vowing to cut energy prices in half.
For that to happen to retail gasoline prices, oil would need to drop to “below $40” per barrel, said Matt Smith, Kpler’s lead oil analyst.
Right now, retail gasoline prices are at a “sweet spot” at $3 per gallon, where consumers do not feel the pinch and input prices are still sufficiently high for producers, Smith added.
Science & Environment
Bizarre test shows light can actually cast its own shadow
Light normally makes other objects cast shadows – but with a little help from a ruby, a beam of laser light can cast a shadow of its own.
When two laser beams interact, they don’t clash together like lightsabers in Star Wars, says Raphael Abrahao at Brookhaven National Laboratory in New York. In real life, they will simply pass through each other. Abrahao and his colleagues, however, found a way for one laser beam to block another – and make its shadow appear.
The crucial ingredient was a ruby cube. The researchers hit this cube with a beam of green laser light while illuminating it with a blue laser from the side. As the green light passed through the ruby atoms, it changed their properties in a peculiar way that then affected how they reacted to the blue light.
Instead of letting the blue laser pass through them, the atoms affected by the green light now blocked the blue light, which created a shadow shaped exactly like the green laser beam. Remarkably, the researchers could project the blue light on a screen and see this “shadow of a laser” with the naked eye.
Abrahao says he and his colleagues had a long discussion of whether what they created really qualified as a shadow. Because it moved when they moved the green laser beam, they could see it without any special equipment and they managed to project it onto commonplace objects, like a marker, they ultimately decided in the affirmative.
Historically, understanding shadows has been crucial for understanding what light can do and how we can use it, he says, and this experiment adds an unexpected technique into scientists’ light-manipulation toolbox.
Tomás Chlouba at the University of Erlangen–Nuremberg in Germany says the experiment uses known processes to create a striking visual demonstration of how materials can help control light. The ruby’s interactions with the laser, for instance, are similar to those of materials used in laser eye surgeries, which must be able to respond to laser light by blocking it if it gets dangerously intense.
Topics:
Science & Environment
You can't put a price on the sense of awe particle physics inspires
Astronomy and particle physics are no longer seen as vital by the US establishment, so funding has fallen. But our work creates a sense of wonder, and wonder matters, says Chanda Prescod-Weinstein
Source link
Science & Environment
WTI rises to trade around $69 per barrel
Crude oil futures rose slightly on Thursday, with the U.S. benchmark trading around $69 per barrel, though the market outlook remains bearish.
Global crude supplies are expected to outstrip demand by more than 1 million barrels per day next year led by robust growth in the U.S., according to the International Energy Agency’s monthly market report.
Here are today’s energy prices by 8:07 a.m. ET:
- West Texas Intermediate December contract: $68.92 per barrel, up 49 cents, or 0.7%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil is down more than 3%.
- Brent January contract: $72.78 per barrel, up 50 cents, or 0.7%. Year to date, the global benchmark is down more than 5%.
- RBOB Gasoline December contract: $1.9711 per gallon, up 0.3%. Year to date, gasoline has fallen nearly 6%.
- Natural Gas December contract: $2.966 per thousand cubic feet, down 0.6%. Year to date, gas has gained nearly 18%.
UBS slashed its price forecast for global benchmark Brent to $80 per barrel from $87 previously on weakening demand in China, the world’s largest crude importer.
OPEC on Monday cut its demand growth forecast for the fourth month in a row earlier this week.
U.S. crude oil has shed about 4% and Brent is down 3.5% since Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential as the dollar has surged. A stronger U.S. dollar can depress oil demand among buyers that hold other currencies.
Science & Environment
Scientists say they’ve discovered the world’s biggest coral, so huge it was mistaken for a shipwreck
Scientists say they have found the world’s largest coral near the Pacific’s Solomon Islands, announcing Thursday a major discovery “pulsing with life and color.” The coral is so immense that researchers sailing the crystal waters of the Solomon archipelago initially thought they’d stumbled across a hulking shipwreck.
“Just when we think there is nothing left to discover on planet Earth, we find a massive coral made of nearly one billion little polyps, pulsing with life and color,” marine ecologist Enric Sala said.
The standalone structure, formed from a “complex network” of tiny coral polyps, has likely been growing for 300 years or more, the researchers said.
At about 111 feet wide and 104 feet long, the team said the “mega coral” was three times bigger than the previous record holder — a coral dubbed “Big Momma” in American Samoa. The massive coral is not a coral reef, structures that can be far larger but are comprised of many distinct coral colonies, they explained.
“While Big Momma looked like a huge scoop of ice cream plopped down on the reef, this newly discovered coral is as if the ice cream started to melt, spreading forever along the seafloor,” said lead scientist Molly Timmers.
It’s longer than a blue whale and thought to be “so colossal” that it could be seen from space.
The coral was discovered at the southeastern tip of the Solomon Islands, in an area known as the Three Sisters. It was spotted by a National Geographic team embarking on a scientific expedition in the region.
Hotter and more acidic oceans have drained the life from corals in many of the region’s tropical waters, a process called bleaching, including Australia’s famed Great Barrier Reef. But this latest discovery offered a small glimmer of hope, the research team said.
“While the nearby shallow reefs were degraded due to warmer seas, witnessing this large healthy coral oasis in slightly deeper waters is a beacon of hope,” said coral scientist Eric Brown.
The lush rainforests and pristine waters of the Solomon Islands have long been celebrated for their ecological diversity. Wildlife observations made in the area in the 1920s helped prove a key part of Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution.
“There is so much to learn about the richness of marine life and the ocean ecosystem, but this finding opens doors of knowledge,” said top Solomon Islands official Collin Beck. “More scientific research is needed to better understand our rich biodiversity and our planet.”
The discovery was announced as representatives from around the world meet in Baku, Azerbaijan for the COP29 United Nations summit on climate change.
The Solomon Islands national climate minister, Trevor Manemahaga, told CBS News’ partner network BBC News at the summit that his nation was proud to be the home of the massive, newly discovered coral.
“We want the world to know, that this is a special place, and it needs to be protected,” he told the BBC. “We rely mostly on marine resources for economic survival, so coral is very, very important.”
Small, low-lying island nations such as the Solomons are among the most vulnerable to the increasing effects of climate change and sea-level rise.
Science & Environment
Our lone oil-and-gas stock strikes 2 smart deals — plus, AMD sharpens its AI focus
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street.
Science & Environment
How Trump policies may boost, and burden, energy stocks and crude oil
-
Science & Environment2 months ago
How to unsnarl a tangle of threads, according to physics
-
Technology2 months ago
Would-be reality TV contestants ‘not looking real’
-
Technology2 months ago
Is sharing your smartphone PIN part of a healthy relationship?
-
Science & Environment2 months ago
Hyperelastic gel is one of the stretchiest materials known to science
-
Science & Environment2 months ago
X-rays reveal half-billion-year-old insect ancestor
-
Science & Environment2 months ago
‘Running of the bulls’ festival crowds move like charged particles
-
Science & Environment2 months ago
Physicists have worked out how to melt any material
-
MMA1 month ago
‘Dirt decision’: Conor McGregor, pros react to Jose Aldo’s razor-thin loss at UFC 307
-
News1 month ago
‘Blacks for Trump’ and Pennsylvania progressives play for undecided voters
-
News1 month ago
Woman who died of cancer ‘was misdiagnosed on phone call with GP’
-
Money1 month ago
Wetherspoons issues update on closures – see the full list of five still at risk and 26 gone for good
-
Sport1 month ago
Aaron Ramsdale: Southampton goalkeeper left Arsenal for more game time
-
Football1 month ago
Rangers & Celtic ready for first SWPL derby showdown
-
Sport1 month ago
2024 ICC Women’s T20 World Cup: Pakistan beat Sri Lanka
-
Science & Environment2 months ago
A new kind of experiment at the Large Hadron Collider could unravel quantum reality
-
Business1 month ago
how UniCredit built its Commerzbank stake
-
Science & Environment2 months ago
Maxwell’s demon charges quantum batteries inside of a quantum computer
-
Science & Environment2 months ago
Quantum forces used to automatically assemble tiny device
-
Science & Environment2 months ago
Sunlight-trapping device can generate temperatures over 1000°C
-
Science & Environment2 months ago
Liquid crystals could improve quantum communication devices
-
Science & Environment2 months ago
Laser helps turn an electron into a coil of mass and charge
-
Technology2 months ago
Ukraine is using AI to manage the removal of Russian landmines
-
Business1 month ago
Top shale boss says US ‘unusually vulnerable’ to Middle East oil shock
-
Technology1 month ago
Samsung Passkeys will work with Samsung’s smart home devices
-
MMA1 month ago
Pereira vs. Rountree prediction: Champ chases legend status
-
News1 month ago
Navigating the News Void: Opportunities for Revitalization
-
Science & Environment2 months ago
Quantum ‘supersolid’ matter stirred using magnets
-
Technology2 months ago
Russia is building ground-based kamikaze robots out of old hoverboards
-
Science & Environment2 months ago
Why this is a golden age for life to thrive across the universe
-
News1 month ago
Massive blasts in Beirut after renewed Israeli air strikes
-
Technology1 month ago
Gmail gets redesigned summary cards with more data & features
-
News1 month ago
Cornell is about to deport a student over Palestine activism
-
Technology1 month ago
SingleStore’s BryteFlow acquisition targets data integration
-
Technology2 months ago
Microphone made of atom-thick graphene could be used in smartphones
-
Business1 month ago
Water companies ‘failing to address customers’ concerns’
-
Sport1 month ago
Boxing: World champion Nick Ball set for Liverpool homecoming against Ronny Rios
-
Sport1 month ago
Shanghai Masters: Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz win openers
-
Entertainment1 month ago
Bruce Springsteen endorses Harris, calls Trump “most dangerous candidate for president in my lifetime”
-
Money1 month ago
Tiny clue on edge of £1 coin that makes it worth 2500 times its face value – do you have one lurking in your change?
-
Technology1 month ago
Epic Games CEO Tim Sweeney renews blast at ‘gatekeeper’ platform owners
-
MMA1 month ago
Pennington vs. Peña pick: Can ex-champ recapture title?
-
Technology2 months ago
Meta has a major opportunity to win the AI hardware race
-
Science & Environment2 months ago
ITER: Is the world’s biggest fusion experiment dead after new delay to 2035?
-
MMA1 month ago
Dana White’s Contender Series 74 recap, analysis, winner grades
-
MMA1 month ago
Kayla Harrison gets involved in nasty war of words with Julianna Pena and Ketlen Vieira
-
Sport1 month ago
America’s Cup: Great Britain qualify for first time since 1964
-
Technology1 month ago
Microsoft just dropped Drasi, and it could change how we handle big data
-
Technology1 month ago
LG C4 OLED smart TVs hit record-low prices ahead of Prime Day
-
Sport1 month ago
WXV1: Canada 21-8 Ireland – Hosts make it two wins from two
-
Science & Environment2 months ago
Nuclear fusion experiment overcomes two key operating hurdles
-
News2 months ago
▶️ Hamas in the West Bank: Rising Support and Deadly Attacks You Might Not Know About
-
Technology2 months ago
Why Machines Learn: A clever primer makes sense of what makes AI possible
-
News1 month ago
Harry vs Sun publisher: ‘Two obdurate but well-resourced armies’
-
MMA1 month ago
‘Uncrowned queen’ Kayla Harrison tastes blood, wants UFC title run
-
Travel1 month ago
World of Hyatt welcomes iconic lifestyle brand in latest partnership
-
Business1 month ago
It feels nothing like ‘fine dining’, but Copenhagen’s Kadeau is a true gift
-
Football1 month ago
'Rangers outclassed and outplayed as Hearts stop rot'
-
Sport1 month ago
New Zealand v England in WXV: Black Ferns not ‘invincible’ before game
-
Science & Environment2 months ago
Nerve fibres in the brain could generate quantum entanglement
-
Technology2 months ago
University examiners fail to spot ChatGPT answers in real-world test
-
Sport1 month ago
URC: Munster 23-0 Ospreys – hosts enjoy second win of season
-
News2 months ago
Rwanda restricts funeral sizes following outbreak
-
Technology1 month ago
Check, Remote, and Gusto discuss the future of work at Disrupt 2024
-
Technology1 month ago
Nintendo’s latest hardware is not the Switch 2
-
TV1 month ago
সারাদেশে দিনব্যাপী বৃষ্টির পূর্বাভাস; সমুদ্রবন্দরে ৩ নম্বর সংকেত | Weather Today | Jamuna TV
-
Business1 month ago
Italy seeks to raise more windfall taxes from companies
-
MMA1 month ago
Stephen Thompson expects Joaquin Buckley to wrestle him at UFC 307
-
Business1 month ago
The search for Japan’s ‘lost’ art
-
Sport1 month ago
Premiership Women’s Rugby: Exeter Chiefs boss unhappy with WXV clash
-
Politics1 month ago
‘The night of the living dead’: denial-fuelled Tory conference ends without direction | Conservative conference
-
Business1 month ago
When to tip and when not to tip
-
News1 month ago
Hull KR 10-8 Warrington Wolves – Robins reach first Super League Grand Final
-
Science & Environment2 months ago
A tale of two mysteries: ghostly neutrinos and the proton decay puzzle
-
MMA2 months ago
How to watch Salt Lake City title fights, lineup, odds, more
-
Money1 month ago
The four errors that can stop you getting £300 winter fuel payment as 880,000 miss out – how to avoid them
-
Sport1 month ago
How India became a Test cricket powerhouse
-
Sport1 month ago
Snooker star Shaun Murphy now hits out at Kyren Wilson after war of words with Mark Allen
-
Sport1 month ago
Fans say ‘Moyes is joking, right?’ after his bizarre interview about under-fire Man Utd manager Erik ten Hag goes viral
-
News1 month ago
Crisis in Congo and Capsizing Boats Mediterranean
-
Science & Environment2 months ago
A slight curve helps rocks make the biggest splash
-
TV1 month ago
TV Patrol Express September 26, 2024
-
Football1 month ago
Fifa to investigate alleged rule breaches by Israel Football Association
-
News1 month ago
UK forces involved in response to Iran attacks on Israel
-
News2 months ago
▶️ Media Bias: How They Spin Attack on Hezbollah and Ignore the Reality
-
Science & Environment2 months ago
How to wrap your mind around the real multiverse
-
Football1 month ago
Why does Prince William support Aston Villa?
-
Sport1 month ago
Bukayo Saka left looking ‘so helpless’ in bizarre moment Conor McGregor tries UFC moves on Arsenal star
-
News1 month ago
▶ Hamas Spent $1B on Tunnels Instead of Investing in a Future for Gaza’s People
-
Sport1 month ago
Phil Jones: ‘I had to strip everything back – now management is my focus’
-
Technology1 month ago
Samsung Galaxy Tab S10 won’t get monthly security updates
-
Technology1 month ago
Musk faces SEC questions over X takeover
-
Sport1 month ago
China Open: Carlos Alcaraz recovers to beat Jannik Sinner in dramatic final
-
Sport4 weeks ago
Sunderland boss Regis Le Bris provides Jordan Henderson transfer update 13 years after £20m departure to Liverpool
-
TV1 month ago
এই ডিভাইস দিয়ে দেখা যায় পৃথিবীর সব টিভি চ্যানেল! | Smart Tv Box | Independent TV
-
Business1 month ago
Bank of England warns of ‘future stress’ from hedge fund bets against US Treasuries
-
Technology1 month ago
J.B. Hunt and UP.Labs launch venture lab to build logistics startups
-
Money1 month ago
DWP reveals exact date that cold weather payments will start this winter – can you get free cash for your energy bills?
-
Sport1 month ago
Sturm Graz: How Austrians ended Red Bull’s title dominance
-
Money1 month ago
Five benefits changes the Government could make next month in its Autumn Budget – from PIP to fraud crackdown
-
MMA1 month ago
‘I was fighting on automatic pilot’ at UFC 306
You must be logged in to post a comment Login