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Why the Market Crash Could Drive a 40% Rally for HBAR Price

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HBAR Correlation With Bitcoin

Hedera price has declined sharply over recent sessions, recording a 15% pullback that pushed HBAR lower. While the move appears bearish at first glance, on-chain and technical indicators suggest a different narrative. 

Investor behavior points to accumulation rather than panic selling. This shift positions the decline as a potential opportunity rather than a breakdown.

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Hedera Following Bitcoin Was The Problem

HBAR’s recent weakness closely mirrors Bitcoin’s price action. The altcoin shares a strong correlation of 0.98 with BTC. Such a high correlation makes HBAR highly sensitive to broader market moves. When Bitcoin fell below $80,000, HBAR followed almost immediately.

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This relationship explains the sudden drop below $0.100. The move was less about Hedera’s fundamentals and more about market-wide pressure.

In periods of sharp Bitcoin declines, highly correlated assets often experience exaggerated moves. That dynamic played out clearly during HBAR’s recent slide.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

HBAR Correlation With Bitcoin
HBAR Correlation With Bitcoin. Source: TradingView

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HBAR Holders Are Doubling Down

Despite price weakness, HBAR holders are pushing back against the bearish outlook. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator shows a notable divergence. Over the past four days, CMF formed lower highs while HBAR price printed lower lows. This pattern signals growing inflows despite a decline in price.

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Bullish divergence often precedes reversals. It suggests investors are accumulating while the price remains suppressed.

Although HBAR has yet to reflect this demand, capital inflows are building beneath the surface. This disconnect increases the probability of a rebound once selling pressure eases.

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HBAR CMF
HBAR CMF. Source: TradingView

The Relative Strength Index further supports a bullish setup. HBAR’s RSI has dropped below the 30.0 threshold, placing the asset firmly in oversold territory. Oversold conditions often indicate selling exhaustion rather than sustained weakness.

Historically, assets trading at these levels experience a slowdown in sell orders. Lower prices tend to attract buyers seeking value entries. For HBAR, this environment increases the likelihood of stabilization and recovery, especially when combined with rising inflows.

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HBAR RSI
HBAR RSI. Source: TradingView

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HBAR Price Eyes Breakout

HBAR price is trading near $0.091 at the time of writing. The altcoin has been moving within a descending broadening wedge for roughly a month. This structure formed after a failed breakout attempt in mid-January. Such patterns often resolve with strong directional moves.

A confirmed breakout from the wedge projects a 43% rally toward $0.146. That target reflects a broader bullish macro scenario. In the near term, HBAR must first reclaim $0.103. A move toward $0.114 would confirm early breakout momentum and validate bullish signals.

HBAR Price Analysis.
HBAR Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Downside risk remains if conditions deteriorate further. Continued Bitcoin weakness could override positive indicators. If HBAR loses support at $0.091, the price may slide toward $0.084. Such a move would invalidate the bullish thesis and delay any recovery attempt.

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Crypto World

MSTR Stock Target Cut to $185 as Analyst Adjusts to Crypto Market Fall

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MSTR Stock Card

TLDR

  • Joseph Vafi from Canaccord has reduced his MSTR stock price target by 61%.
  • The new MSTR stock price target is now set at $185, down from $474.
  • Vafi still maintains a buy rating despite the steep cut in his price estimate.
  • Strategy’s stock has dropped 15% in 2026 and 62% over the past year.
  • The company’s value is now closely tied to the performance of Bitcoin.

As the ongoing crypto winter continues, investors are looking for signs that the bearish trend has reached its peak. A notable update comes from Canaccord’s Joseph Vafi, who dramatically slashed his price target on Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) stock. Vafi reduced his target by 61%, setting it at $185 from the previous $474, reflecting the significant impact of the current market conditions.

Strategy (MSTR) Faces Setback Amid Market Volatility

Joseph Vafi’s revised price target fo MSTR stock marks a stark change in outlook. After maintaining a bullish stance on the stock just a few months ago, Vafi is now adjusting his expectations to reflect the ongoing struggles within the crypto space. The analyst still holds a buy rating on the stock, despite the massive cut in his price target.


MSTR Stock Card
Strategy Inc, MSTR

At $185, the new target implies about 40% upside from the most recent closing price of $133. However, this outlook comes after Strategy has suffered significant losses, down 15% year-to-date, 62% year-over-year, and 72% from its record high in November 2024. The bearish trend is in line with the broader decline in the cryptocurrency market, which has faced immense pressure over the past year.

Bitcoin’s Ongoing Struggles Impact MSTR Stock

In his analysis, Vafi pointed to Bitcoin’s “identity crisis” as a key factor in the struggles of MSTR. While Bitcoin is still seen as a long-term store of value, its recent price movements resemble that of a risk asset, making it more susceptible to volatility. “Bitcoin is increasingly trading like a risk asset rather than a safe-haven asset,” Vafi remarked, highlighting how the cryptocurrency failed to track with precious metals like gold.

The Bitcoin-led company Strategy has been hit hard by these developments. Despite holding more than $44 billion in Bitcoin, the company has seen its market cap drop to levels close to its Bitcoin holdings. This correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the stock’s performance has made Strategy’s financial health more reliant on the digital asset’s price fluctuations than anticipated.

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MSTR’s Near-Complete Dependence on Bitcoin

With Bitcoin’s price fluctuations dominating its financial outlook, quarterly results for MSTR have become less relevant. Investors are increasingly focused on the value of the company’s Bitcoin holdings rather than its operational performance. The upcoming quarterly results are expected to show a sizable unrealized loss due to Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter selloff.

Vafi’s revised price target assumes a 20% rebound in Bitcoin prices, which would help stabilize Strategy’s mNAV. However, the stock’s future remains closely tied to Bitcoin’s performance in the coming months. Despite this, Vafi remains optimistic, stating that Strategy is still built to weather volatility, given its strong Bitcoin position.

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Crypto Markets Bleed Amid Tech Stock Selloff

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Crypto Markets Bleed Amid Tech Stock Selloff


Bitcoin is down 18% in seven days as tech stocks continue to disappoint.

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Kyle Samani leaves Multicoin in ‘bittersweet moment’ to explore new tech

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Kyle Samani leaves Multicoin in ‘bittersweet moment’ to explore new tech

Multicoin Capital’s co-founder, Kyle Samani, said he is stepping down as managing partner of the crypto investment firm after 10 years in the industry. 

Samani called it a “bittersweet moment” in a post on Wednesday, adding, “I am excited to take some time off and explore new areas of technology,” which he later revealed would include AI and robotics.

He added that he is “more confident than ever that crypto is going to fundamentally rewire the circuitry of finance.”

“The Clarity Act will unlock a tidal wave of new entrants and spur adoption unlike anything we’ve seen,” Samani said, adding that he is particularly bullish on Solana and intends to continue making personal investments in the space and supporting Multicoin portfolio companies.

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However, the post appears to conflict with a reportedly deleted earlier X post, in which he stated: “I once believed in the web3 vision. dapps. I don’t anymore…Crypto is just fundamentally not as interesting as many crypto enthusiasts wanted. Myself included.” 

Samani has previously criticized the Bitcoin and Ethereum ecosystems.

Source: Kyle Samani

Last month, Samani said discovering Ethereum was his “entry into crypto” in 2016, after becoming convinced by permissionless finance and smart contracts.

However, he later lost faith in Ethereum, saying he was dissatisfied with how Ethereum developers addressed scaling.

Samani helped turn Multicoin into a $5.9 billion company

He came across the Solana shortly after founding Multicoin in May 2017, which went on to lead some of Solana’s earliest investment rounds in 2018.

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