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Will XRP Crumble Below $1 in February? The Answers Worried Us

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Will XRP Crumble Below $1 in February? The Answers Worried Us


XRP is already down by 30% from its peak this month.

The landscape around most cryptocurrencies has been quite unfavorable for the past few weeks, and Ripple’s cross-border token was not spared.

After a strong start to the new year, in which it rocketed by 30% in days to a multi-week high of just over $2.40 on January 6, the asset was rejected and driven south hard. The latest correction from the last trading week of January brought it south to a 14-month low of $1.50 – a level last seen before the price rally after the US elections in 2024.

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The question we just asked some of the most popular AI solutions is whether XRP is heading for a new low at or below $1.00 soon.

XRP to Hold $1?

Gemini was somewhat conservative in its prediction for XRP in February. It noted that after such a prolonged period of enhanced volatility that included several 30% price moves in either direction, the asset is most likely to enter a consolidation phase. More specifically, it named the upcoming period “consolidation followed by a decision point.”

In the more favorable scenario for the bulls, this sideways trading could occur at around $1.80-$2.00 if XRP manages to rebound and hold above the $1.65-$1.70 support during the first week of the new month.

However, if it fails and falls, the bearish continuation is more likely to transpire at around $1.25-$1.45. Interestingly, Grok also provided an identical price target for the first few weeks of February, suggesting that if the $1.70 floor breaks decisively, there is “very little volume support until the $1.45 region.” It added that this is the “max pain” scenario for late buyers, and essentially dismissed the sub-$1.00 possibility.

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$1 or Less in Feb?

ChatGPT noted that XRP will likely defend the $1.00 level in February. It admitted that the ongoing selling pressure is intense, perhaps due to the escalating global tension, which is also evident from the latest ETF outflows, but believes the $1.00 target is still far from XRP to be causing actual concern. However, it noted that such a possibility is still in the cards for XRP by the end of Q1 and the beginning of Q2.

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Perplexity was slightly more bearish on the token’s upcoming price performance. It explained that if the geopolitical landscape worsens, which could take place in days if the US indeed attacks Iran, XRP, being a riskier asset, might find itself in another nosedive situation, this time toward $1.00.

However, it also dismissed the possibility of a price drop below that level in February, as long as there’s no black swan event.

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NYSE Lifts Crypto Options Cap Across 11 BTC and ETH ETFs

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Crypto Breaking News

Two NYSE-affiliated venues have scrapped the 25,000-contract cap on options tied to 11 crypto ETF options, a move the exchanges filed with the Federal Register on March 10. The Securities and Exchange Commission acknowledged the rule alterations on Sunday by waiving the standard 30-day waiting period, meaning the changes are now in effect. The initiative removes price-discovery restrictions and the position-limit cap that had governed crypto ETF options since their November 2024 debut.

The policy shift ushers crypto ETF options closer to the regime applied to other commodity ETFs, potentially boosting institutional trading flexibility, liquidity, and ease of entry and exit. The development also paves the way for FLEX options—customizable terms such as non-standard strike prices, expiration dates, and exercise styles—to be applied to crypto ETF options.

Among the 11 crypto ETF options affected are major listings from BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK, including BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB). The notice also covers Bitcoin and Ether ETFs issued by Bitwise and Grayscale, expanding a footprint that has grown since the initial option-limits regime was put in place.

In parallel, the SEC’s acknowledgment of the rule changes adds a note of continuity to an ongoing regulatory arc around crypto ETF products. The latest action follows a July decision that removed the 25,000-contract limit for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC), signaling a broader regulatory openness to easing constraints on crypto-derived derivatives.

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Beyond the NYSE venues, another development looms: Nasdaq’s options arm, Nasdaq International Securities Exchange, has filed to raise the contract position limit for BlackRock’s IBIT to 1 million. That proposal remains under review by the SEC as of a February 27 notice, underscoring an industry-wide interest in expanding capacity for crypto-based hedging and trading instruments.

The shift comes against a backdrop of heightened attention to liquidity and transparency in crypto markets, with exchanges and issuers seeking to improve price discovery and provide more robust hedging tools for institutional participants. While the core economics of crypto ETFs and their options remain subject to market forces, removing artificial caps can enhance capital efficiency for institutions, market-makers, and sophisticated retail participants alike.

Key takeaways

  • The NYSE Arca and NYSE American have removed the 25,000-contract limit and price-discovery restrictions on options linked to 11 crypto ETF options, effective after SEC’s waiver of the standard 30-day waiting period.
  • The change brings crypto ETF options closer to the handling of traditional commodity ETF options and enables FLEX options with customizable terms.
  • 11 crypto ETF options are affected, including BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and ARK’s ARKB, with Bitwise and Grayscale’s BTC-related offerings also covered.
  • The development follows earlier regulatory moves, including the SEC’s July decision to remove the 25,000-contract cap for GBTC, signaling a gradual easing of previous constraints.
  • Nasdaq ISE is seeking to lift its own cap for IBIT to 1 million contracts, a proposal still under SEC review as of late February.

Regulatory steps and what changed

NYSE Arca Inc. and NYSE American LLC filed three rule changes with the Federal Register on March 10 to eliminate the 25,000-contract position limit and price-discovery restrictions on options tied to 11 crypto ETF products listed on their exchanges. The actions mark a notable shift from the framework established when crypto ETF options first began trading in November 2024, when broad caps were designed to curb market manipulation and volatility.

The SEC’s decision to waive the usual 30-day waiting period means the amendments are now in effect. This waiver eliminates a standard cooling-off period that typically gives market participants time to react to regulatory changes, accelerating the practical impact of the rules for exchanges, brokers, and traders.

From a structural perspective, the moves align crypto ETF options with the broader approach applied to commodity ETF options, potentially improving liquidity by enabling more complete hedging and arb opportunities. The removal of the cap also dovetails with a push to offer more flexible trading tools, including FLEX options, which permit non-standard strike prices and expiration dates and more diverse exercise styles.

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Which products are affected and why it matters

While the notice does not list every instrument in detail, it confirms that 11 crypto ETF options are covered. The set includes high-profile offerings from BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK, notably the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB). The scope also extends to Bitcoin- and Ether-focused ETFs issued by Bitwise and Grayscale, underscoring a broadening ensemble of crypto-linked options now subject to a more permissive regime.

For investors, the implications are tangible. Fewer constraints on contract size and governance around price discovery can translate into deeper liquidity and more efficient entry and exit for complex hedging strategies. Market-makers gain additional flexibility in pricing and risk management, which could reduce spreads and improve execution quality in volatile periods. Traders who rely on precise volatility hedges or sophisticated spreads may find the availability of FLEX options particularly advantageous, enabling strategies that were previously constrained by standard exchange rules.

From an issuer perspective, these changes could support more robust options markets around crypto ETFs, enhancing the attractiveness of listed products for institutions that require scalable hedging and leverage management. The broader regulatory signal—easing limits while maintaining oversight—also matters for credibility and institutional onboarding within the crypto asset space.

Nevertheless, observers should note that the crypto ETF landscape remains a function of evolving market structure, regulatory sentiment, and product demand. While the caps are lifting, liquidity will still hinge on actual trading volumes, market-making capacity, and the availability of reliable underlying data for price discovery. The market will likely watch volumes and bid-ask dynamics closely in the coming quarters to gauge the real-world impact of the change.

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Broader context and what to watch next

The SEC’s posture toward crypto-based options continues to unfold. The Nasdaq ISE’s bid to raise IBIT’s position limit to 1 million contracts illustrates a broader ambition to expand trading capability for crypto ETFs beyond the NYSE-anchored venues. As regulators weigh these proposals, the interaction between rule changes, liquidity, and market integrity will be a focal point for investors and issuers alike.

Market participants should also monitor how providers respond to the new FLEX options framework. Customizable terms could unlock nuanced hedging structures that align with institutional risk management needs, but they may also introduce additional complexity that requires careful governance and risk controls.

In short, the current move by NYSE Arca and NYSE American marks a meaningful step toward normalizing crypto ETF options with traditional derivatives markets. If liquidity improves as anticipated, more investors may incorporate crypto ETF options into diversified hedging programs, potentially deepening the role of listed crypto products in mainstream portfolios. The coming months will reveal how the market consumes these changes and whether further regulatory shifts follow.

Readers should keep an eye on trading data for IBIT, FBTC, ARKB, and related Bitwise and Grayscale ETFs as well as any developments from the SEC or Nasdaq ISE regarding contract limits, price-discovery mechanics, and the broader trajectory of crypto derivatives regulation.

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NYSE Exchanges Remove Cap Limiting Crypto Options

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NYSE Exchanges Remove Cap Limiting Crypto Options

Two New York Stock Exchange-affiliated exchanges have removed the 25,000 contract position limit on options tied to 11 crypto exchange-traded funds.

NYSE Arca and NYSE American each filed three rule changes in the Federal Register on March 10 to remove contract position limits and price discovery restrictions for options linked to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs listed on their exchanges.

These were acknowledged by the Securities and Exchange Commission on Sunday, with the SEC waiving the standard 30-day waiting period for both sets of proposed rule changes, meaning they are now in effect.

11 crypto ETFs are impacted by the options rules changes on NYSE Arca and NYSE American. Source: SEC

The limits were imposed when crypto ETF options first started trading in November 2024. Limits of this nature are typically imposed to prevent market manipulation and volatility. T

The removal of those limits now puts them closer to how other commodity ETF options are treated, and gives institutions greater trading flexibility while also potentially boosting liquidity and making it easier to enter and exit positions. 

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It also allows the crypto options to be traded as FLEX options, which include customizable terms such as non-standard strike prices, expiration dates and exercise styles.

Related: Scaramucci says BTC’s 4-year cycle still in play, forecasts rise in Q4 

A total of 11 crypto ETF options are affected by the rule changes, including BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB).

Bitcoin and Ether ETFs issued by Bitwise and Grayscale are also affected.

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