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OPEC is bullish on long-term oil demand growth. Not everyone agrees

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OPEC is bullish on long-term oil demand growth. Not everyone agrees


The sun sets beyond crude oil storage tanks at the Juaymah tank farm at Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, on Monday, Oct. 1, 2018.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

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Global benchmark Brent crude falling below $70 a barrel in early September — its lowest in 33 months — is terrific news for consumers, who will consequently see lower prices at the pump.

It’s also the stuff of nightmares for OPEC+, for whom oil revenues are critical.

The oil producer alliance led by Saudi Arabia earlier this month decided to delay oil production hikes for two additional months in an effort to shore up prices, but so far to no avail. Low global demand forecasts, coupled with new oil supply coming from non-OPEC countries, spell a long period of subdued crude prices. 

It’s led some in the market to ask the question: Have we officially reached “peak oil”? Has demand growth hit its apex, and is it just downhill from here?

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By the forecasts of OPEC itself, that’s a hard no. 

The oil producer group’s 2024 World Oil Outlook report, released Tuesday, predicts strong energy demand growth of 24% globally between now and 2050. It also forecasts “robust medium-term growth” in oil demand reaching 112.3 million barrels per day in 2029, an increase of 10.1 million barrels per day compared to 2023.

A fair number of energy analysts appear to disagree with that calculation — not least those at the International Energy Agency. The Paris-based agency sees demand actually leveling off by the end of the decade to around 106 million barrels per day, according to its annual mid-term outlook published in June. The IEA still sees global oil demand rising; it just forecasts a smaller rise, and expects it to peak by the end of the decade. 

For global oil market, we are moving into an era of 'post-growth', not 'post-oil': Expert

The battle of the forecasts between OPEC and the IEA has gained publicity in recent years, with the latter organization pushing hard for a net-zero future. 

S&P Global Commodity Insights, meanwhile, sees the medium-term future as somewhere in between, with demand reaching a peak of 109 million barrels per day in 2034 and gradually declining to fall below 100 million barrels per day in 2050. 

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OPEC, by contrast, sees demand hitting a whopping 120 million barrels per day by 2050. 

All parties agree that demand will fall in the developing world, while rising in emerging markets led by India. 

The medium-term outlook

As for the near-to-medium term outlook, analysts are bearish on oil demand and prices. This is despite the early September announcement by OPEC+ that the group would be extending its crude production cuts into December in an attempt to limit market supply.

“That two month extra time hasn’t convinced anybody who’s skeptical about the market that that’s going to do much to shore up prices,” Dave Ernsberger, head of market reporting at S&P Global Commodity Insights, told CNBC.

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“So that’s the in-the-moment issue. But the much bigger issue is, existentially speaking, are we moving past the moment of peak oil demand?”

Ernsberger pointed to the growth of alternative energy forms, including the increasing use of biofuels in the maritime industry. 

“What we’re moving into is an era of post-demand growth. It’s not a post-oil moment, but it’s a post-growth moment. And how does OPEC+, how does the market readjust to a world of low or no growth in demand overall?”

ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance on falling oil prices, energy demand and rate cuts

Price increase prospects are also dimmed by China, the world’s largest oil importer, which has put itself on a dedicated path to electrification. 

“The biggest threats to higher prices for OPEC+ are external,” Li-Chen Sim, a non-resident scholar at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, told CNBC.

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Those are chiefly “lackluster demand, especially from China, oil supply from non-OPEC+ sources, and internal; some members are producing more than assigned quotas.”

Estimates by international and Chinese sources show a slowing demand for oil and refined products in China, Sim said. 

That is in part due to slowing Chinese economic growth of around 3% to 5% annually in recent years — still better than many other countries, she noted. 

“But there’s also a structural element to the reduction in oil consumption, driven by a conscious effort to reduce its high dependence on oil (and gas) imports, and expressed in policies such as electric vehicle uptake and encouraging expansion of renewable and nuclear power,” Sim added.

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In the near term, OPEC+ is still expected to bring some production back in December, several countries in the alliance are producing beyond their quotas, and more supply is coming onto the market from non-OPEC+ producers like the U.S., Guyana, Brazil, and Canada. 

“It’s difficult to see prices moving much higher from here as long as that threat is out there in the market to bring those supplies back,” Ernsberger said.

In the much longer term, the eventual decline of the oil era – if it happens – will be brought on due to changing demand rather than dwindling supply, many analysts argue.

It was the late Saudi Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani who said in 2000: “The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones and the Oil Age will end, but not for a lack of oil.”

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Bankman-Fried accomplice Caroline Ellison sentenced in FTX fraud

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Bankman-Fried accomplice Caroline Ellison sentenced in FTX fraud


Caroline Ellison, former chief executive officer of Alameda Research LLC, right, arrives at court in New York, US, on Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. 

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

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Caroline Ellison, the star witness in the prosecution of her former boyfriend, FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, was sentenced Tuesday in New York federal court to two years in prison and ordered to forfeit $11 billion for her role in the massive fraud and conspiracy that doomed the cryptocurrency exchange once valued at $32 billion.

The prison term was significantly stiffer than the recommendation by the federal Probation Department that Judge Lewis Kaplan sentence Ellison to three years of supervised release, with no time at all behind bars. Ellison’s lawyers also had asked for a no-prison sentence.

Ellison, who had run Alameda Research, a hedge fund connected to FTX, agreed to a plea deal in December 2022, a month after FTX spiraled into bankruptcy. 

Ellison, 29, pleaded guilty to conspiracy and financial fraud charges.

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Bankman-Fried, in contrast, chose to stand trial and was convicted of all seven criminal fraud charges against him in U.S. District Court in Manhattan.

He was sentenced to 25 years in prison in March and ordered to pay $11 billion in forfeiture.

Bankman-Fried since then has appealed his conviction, and requested a new trial and a different judge, arguing that Kaplan was biased against him.

Late Monday, Ellison’s attorneys in a court filing said they had finalized financial settlements with prosecutors and the FTX debtor’s estate.

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Both Bankman-Fried and Ellison had faced the same statutory maximum sentence of about 110 years in prison for their crimes.

But defendants in criminal cases who cooperate with prosecutors instead of fighting the charges particularly in white-collar cases such as FTX, often receive leniency when they are sentenced.

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried appeals fraud conviction

This is breaking news. Check back for updates.



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Take a look inside a $1.1 million ‘zero emissions’ home

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Take a look inside a $1.1 million 'zero emissions' home


Courtesy: Wojciechowski Family

Real estate is a key puzzle piece in achieving the U.S.’ climate goals, according to federal officials.

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Residential and commercial buildings account for 31% of the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions, after accounting for “indirect” emissions like electricity use, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. That’s more than other economic sectors like transportation and agriculture.

The Biden administration has adopted various policies to cut residential emissions.

The Inflation Reduction Act, enacted in 2022, offers financial benefits including tax breaks and rebates to homeowners who make their homes more energy-efficient, for example. The White House also recently issued guidelines for buildings in order to be considered “zero emissions,” meaning they are “energy efficient, free of onsite emissions from energy use and powered solely from clean energy,” according to the Department of Energy.

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Morgan Wojciechowski, 33, is among the first homeowners to get that federal “zero emissions” label. (That assessment was bestowed by the third-party firm Pearl Certification.)

Wojciechowski, her husband Casey, and their three dogs — Dixie, Bo and Charlie — moved into the newly built residence in Williamsburg, Virginia, in August 2023.

Wojciechowski, who is also the president of Healthy Communities, a local real-estate developer focused on sustainable construction, spoke with CNBC about her new home, its financial benefits and how consumers can best upgrade their homes to be more efficient.

The conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.

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Morgan Wojciechowski and her husband Casey.

Courtesy: Wojciechowski Family

Greg Iacurci: What does it mean for your home to be considered ‘zero emissions’?

Morgan Wojciechowski: It’s a very, very, very highly efficient home that’s all-electric. Those are kind of the first two bullet points of the White House definition.

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The third part is we are part of the green energy program with [our power provider] Dominion. Not only am I producing solar [energy] and any excess is going back onto the grid, but the power from the grid coming into my home is clean and sustainable. It’s about $10 extra a month for me to get that clean energy.

GI: How much did your house cost to build?

MW: Like $1.1 million.

GI: And how big is the house?

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MW: 5,800 square feet.

It’s a large home. But mine is not what everybody’s doing. My home was my personal project because I believe in sustainability and wanted to do it in a home that would be my forever home. But one that’s more replicable would be like what [Healthy Communities] builds at Walnut Farm, which is like 1,500 square feet. We’re selling it for $433,000.

GI: Can you break down your home’s estimated savings?

MW: Our utility bills are projected to be about $917 a year with [solar] panels, or around $80 a month.

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The annual savings are $7,226 [relative to an average U.S. home, according to rater TopBuild Home Services]. That’s just from the efficiency of the home with solar.

If you took the solar production away, I would be saving $5,431 annually. The solar offsets it.

Courtesy: Wojciechowski Family

Courtesy: Wojciechowski Family

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Courtesy: Wojciechowski Family

Courtesy: Wojciechowski Family

Courtesy: Wojciechowski Family

GI: What do you mean solar offsets it?

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MW: You create energy. Your home uses that energy and sends excess energy back to Dominion. Those credits are stored in an account, and then those credits offset your bill. It’s called net metering.

GI: So the power company is paying you that money?

MW: Those credits are applied to your next billing cycle. They offset your overall utility bill, and that’s where your savings come in.

Solar panels only make sense if you build an energy-efficient home that’s really all-electric.

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Courtesy: Wojciechowski Family

GI: Why is that?

MW: You have to have a home that’s constructed energy-efficiently enough or retrofitted — by replacing your windows with higher-grade windows, adding insulation — so that you will need fewer panels on your rooftop, so you have a quicker return on your investment. Solar only makes sense if you’re going to have a return on your investment within a few years.

GI: That makes solar more attractive?

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MW: If you don’t do energy-efficient upgrades to a pre-existing home or if you don’t build a home that’s energy-efficient enough, you have to add more panels to compensate for the lack of energy efficiency. And if that number gets too big it turns people upside down.

Solar has to make sense with the home that you’re putting it on, or else, don’t do it. Maybe just upgrade your windows, add insulation, condition your crawl space, upgrade your mechanical systems.

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There are a lot of things consumers can do. You don’t have to do it all at one time. You don’t have to have a solar home to be zero emissions; you have to have an energy-efficient house that’s all-electric, and you have to buy renewable energy from your utility company.

That’s extremely approachable. Lots of people can do that. Everybody can join in at their level of sustainability.

GI: How do you recommend people get started?

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MW: I would tell a consumer, why don’t you start with windows and doors. That’s a very easy one. Do that and see how you notice any [efficiency] changes.

In a lot of older homes windows are very old and they leak. Air is coming in and out. If you think about it, a house is like an envelope. You you want to seal the inside of your home the best that you can.  

I would hit insulation next.

A lot of older homes have HVAC systems, duct work inside of their attic. Insulate it so that it’s a conditioned space, so that those building systems don’t have to work in overdrive to keep up with really hot temperatures or really cold temperatures. That keeps it more energy efficient.

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And there are tax incentives [available] for energy-efficient upgrades to your home. Consumers can get and write them off, so that’s attractive to people as well.

GI: If you’re a renter, there are certain things that are out of your control. I suppose you can ask your landlord.

MW: Depending upon what your rental situation is. I feel like that’s a little bit more daunting, to change someone else’s mind. Once you get to your own home, eventually, then you have more say of what you can do.

Until then, you could be mindful about the energy you use. Turn lights off. I mean, that’s a real thing. People don’t turn lights off. I mean, even though I have a really efficient home, I have timers on things because I don’t want to be wasting energy. That’s an easy one that anybody could do.

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Morgan Stanley sees this stock doubling on eventual data center deal

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Morgan Stanley sees this stock doubling on eventual data center deal




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New species of “ghost shark” discovered living deep in the Pacific Ocean to

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New species of "ghost shark" discovered living deep in the Pacific Ocean to



Rare ghost shark caught on film off California coast

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Researchers have discovered a new species of “ghost shark” that exclusively lives in the deep waters surrounding Australia and New Zealand. 

The “Australasian narrow-nosed spookfish” has a long, pointed nose, as its name indicates, and bulging black eyes. The creature has “chocolate brown” skin and a long, wispy tail, according to New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. 

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Ghost sharks, formally known as chimaeras, have smooth skin and no scales. They have “distinctive, beak-like teeth,” NIWA said, and primarily eat shrimp and mollusks. 

The species lives in the deep waters of the Pacific Ocean, which NIWA scientist Brit Finucci said makes them difficult to study. One ghost shark was caught on camera swimming off the coast of California in 2017. The specimens studied by NIWA to make this identification were found during other research studies for Fisheries New Zealand. 

screenshot-2024-09-24-at-8-55-18-am.png
The newly described Australasian Narrow-nosed Spookfish, Harriotta avia.

NIWA

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“Their habitat makes them hard to study and monitor, meaning we don’t know a lot about their biology or threat status, but it makes discoveries like this even more exciting,” Finucci said. 

The specimens found were thought to be part of a species that can be found around the world, but research revealed the Australasian narrow-nosed spookfish is “genetically and morphologically different to its cousins,” NIWA said. 

Finucci gave the species the scientific name “Harriotta avia” in honor of her grandmother. 

“Avia means grandmother in Latin; I wanted to give this nod to her because she proudly supported me through my career as a scientist,” Finucci said. “Chimaeras are also rather ancient relatives — the grandmas and grandpas — of fish and I thought the name was well suited.” 

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Caroline Ellison could face no jail time for role in FTX collapse

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Caroline Ellison could face no jail time for role in FTX collapse


Caroline Ellison, former chief executive officer of Alameda Research LLC, center, arrives at court in New York, US, on Tuesday, Oct. 10, 2023. 

Yuki Iwamura | Bloomberg | Getty Images

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Caroline Ellison was the star witness in the criminal case against disgraced FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. On Tuesday, she will face her own sentencing.

Ellison’s role in the implosion of the crypto empire run by her former boss and ex-boyfriend Sam Bankman-Fried was to lie to investors, help steal billions of dollars from FTX customers, and subsequently re-purpose those funds toward bets and debts accrued at Alameda Research, the digital asset hedge fund she helmed as CEO.

Bankman-Fried and Ellison are both, in the eyes of the U.S. judicial system, guilty of the same crimes.

Two counts of wire fraud, two counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud, one count of conspiracy to commit securities fraud, one count of conspiracy to commit commodities fraud, and one count of conspiracy to commit money laundering. Those charges carry a statutory maximum sentence of around 110 years, but there’s a sliding scale that takes into account the scope of the crimes and the criminal history of the defendant.

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CNBC spoke to former federal prosecutors, trial attorneys and legal experts to get their take on what may be in store for Ellison at Tuesday’s hearing. They agree that Ellison is likely to walk away without any jail time at all.

After a jury of twelve unanimously found Bankman-Fried guilty of all seven criminal charges against him in November, he was sentenced in March to 25 years for his crypto fraud and ordered to pay $11 billion in forfeiture.

Unlike Bankman-Fried, Ellison agreed to a plea deal in December 2022. She pled guilty to all charges against her and spent two years cooperating with the government, regulators and the FTX bankruptcy estate.

Meanwhile, Bankman-Fried continues to deny virtually all criminal wrongdoing and is attempting to get his case retried.

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Lawyers for Ellison and Bankman-Fried did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Government exhibit in the case against former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried.

Source: SDNY

No time behind bars

Cooperation with the prosecution in white collar crimes, even in what has been billed as “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history,” goes a long way.

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Ellison was the most important of the several insiders who testified for the government, said former Assistant U.S. Attorney Kevin J. O’Brien, who specializes in white-collar criminal defense in New York.

“Because of the closeness of her relationship to Sam, she was able to provide a personal portrait of Bankman-Fried, an elusive character to be sure, that was probably unique in the government’s case,” O’Brien said.

The federal Probation Department has recommended “time served with three years of supervised release” as a credit to Ellison’s “extraordinary cooperation with the government” and “her otherwise unblemished record.”

While District Judge Lewis Kaplan is under no obligation to accept the Probation Department’s recommendation, O’Brien said that, along with some sort of fine, that would be “a fair sentence” because it reflects the “enormous value” of Ellison’s cooperation.

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The U.S. legal system tends to favor reduced sentences for those who assist in bringing down higher targets, said Braden Perry, a former senior trial lawyer for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

At most, Perry estimates that Ellison, who is the third executive tied to Bankman-Fried’s enterprise to be sentenced, faces 18 months in prison and three years of supervised release.

Though Ellison was deeply involved in the fraudulent activities, “she did not have the same control or directorial authority as SBF, which will likely influence the judge’s decision about imposing a light sentence,” Perry said.

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried appeals fraud conviction

Encouragement to cooperate

More than likely, Ellison’s conviction will entail several years of supervised release and community service with a slew of attached activity restrictions, such as no trading in both crypto and non-crypto markets or foreign travel, said Yesha Yadav, law professor and Associate Dean at Vanderbilt University.

Unlike Bankman-Fried who has faced public admonition and been portrayed by the government as a recidivist character, Ellison has been praised repeatedly by prosecutors and by new FTX CEO and bankruptcy administrator John Ray III.

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“On the stand, she came across as someone who felt guilt and pain at what she had done,” Yadav said.

SBF’s defense team asked for no more than 6.5 years of incarceration, but Kaplan said Ellison’s testimony ultimately proved pivotal to his decision to sentence Bankman-Fried to nearly four times that.

Kaplan also sided with federal prosecutors when he revoked Bankman-Fried’s bail and sent him back to jail for witness tampering after he leaked private diary entries written by Ellison. Kaplan described the leak by Bankman-Fried as one designed to “hurt” and “discredit” Ellison.

Ellison “suffered very public humiliation over the last two years, often with sexist overtones,” Yadav said.

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Most judges don’t like sending people to jail who aren’t a threat to harm others in the future, said former federal prosecutor Paul Tuchmann.

“The chance of Ellison ever harming anyone through criminal conduct in the future again are very low,” Tuchmann said.

If Kaplan ends up foregoing jail time in Ellison’s sentence, that could bode well for former FTX engineering chief Nishad Singh and Gary Wang, the co-founder and chief technology officer of FTX. Singh and Wang will be sentenced Oct. 30 and Nov. 20, respectively.

“I do think that if he wants to, Judge Kaplan can ‘afford’ to give all of these people no prison time,” said Tuchmann, adding that “Most judges want to encourage people like that to cooperate, and a sentence of time served and probation is the best way to do that.”

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WATCH: Sam Bankman-Fried’s family on sentencing: We are heartbroken and will continue to fight for our son

Sam Bankman-Fried's family on sentencing: We are heartbroken and will continue to fight for our son



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Hurricane John’s rapid intensification catches Mexico tourist hubs of Acapulco and Puerto Escondido off guard

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Hurricane John's rapid intensification catches Mexico tourist hubs of Acapulco and Puerto Escondido off guard


Puerto Escondido, Mexico — Hurricane John struck Mexico’s southern Pacific coast with life-threatening flood potential after growing into a major hurricane in a matter of hours. It came ashore near the town of Punta Maldonado late Monday night as a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. John’s rapid intensification forced authorities to rush to keep pace and warn people of its potential destruction.

“Seek higher ground, protect yourselves and do not forget that life is the most important thing; material things can be replaced. We are here,” Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador wrote on the social media platform X.

By early Tuesday, John had weakened to a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph maximum sustained winds, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. It was expected to batter Punta Maldonado and the nearby tourist hubs Acapulco and Puerto Escondido before being weakened over the high terrain inland.

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Heavy rain and strong winds lash a street in Lazaro Cardenas, in Mexico’s southern Michoacan state, Sept. 23, 2024, as Hurricane John makes landfall as a Category 3 storm.

David Zamora/Reuters


The center said before landfall that “life-threatening” storm surges and flash floods were already ravaging the Pacific coast near Oaxaca.

Hurricane John shows growing threat of rapid intensification

The unexpected surge in strength caught scientists, authorities and residents of the area by surprise, something AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matt Benz and other experts have attributed to warmer oceans, which add fuel to the hurricanes.

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As a result, surprise surges in hurricanes’ strength have become increasingly common, Benz said.

“These are storms that we haven’t really experienced before,” he said. “Rapid intensification has occurred more frequently in modern times as opposed to back in the historical record. So that’s telling us there’s something going on there.”

Rapid intensification is defined by meteorologists as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (about 35 mph) over a 24 hour period, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.  

Residents were tense in Oaxaca’s coastal cities as the forecast shifted and authorities responded.

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Laura Velázquez, the federal coordinator of civil protection, told residents of Pacific coastal cities they should evacuate their homes and head to shelters in order to “protect theirs and their family’s lives.”

“It’s very important that all citizens in the coastal zone… take preventive measures,” Velázquez said.

Ana Aldai, a 33-year-old employee of a restaurant on the shores of the tourist hub Puerto Escondido, said businesses in the area began closing after authorities ordered the suspension of all work on the area’s main beaches.

The governments of Guerrero and Oaxaca states said classes would be suspended in a number of coastal zones on Tuesday.

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The rainfall forecast for Mexico’s southwest Pacific coast as Hurricane John makes landfall, Sept. 24, 2024, from the Weather Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

NOAA


Oaxaca’s governor said the state government had evacuated 3,000 people and set up 80 shelters. It also said it sent out 1,000 military and state personnel to address the emergency.

Videos on social media from Puerto Escondido showed flip-flop-clad tourists walking through heavy rain and fishermen pulling their boats out of the water. Strong rains in previous days have already left some roads in the region in a precarious position.

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Aldai said she was “a little bit distressed” because notice from authorities came quickly. “There was no opportunity to make the necessary purchases. That also distresses us,” she said.

A lingering impact for a coast battered a year earlier by Otis

Benz, the meteorologist, expressed concern that the storm could slow once it hits land, leaving the storm hovering over the coastal zone, which could cause even greater damage.

The hurricane is bleak news for the region, which last year was walloped by Otis, a similar rapidly intensifying hurricane.

Otis devastated the resort city of Acapulco, where residents had little warning of the strength of what was about to hit them. One of the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes ever seen, scientists at the time said it was a product of changing climate conditions.

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Otis blew out power in the city for days, left bodies scattered on the coast and desperate family members searching for lost loved ones. Much of the city was left in a state of lawlessness and thousands scavenged in stores, scrambled for food and water.

The government of López Obrador received harsh criticism for its slow response to Otis, but authorities have since pledged to pick up their speed.

President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum said her government planned to work on improving an early alert system, similar to what the country has with earthquakes.

Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain across coastal areas of Chiapas state with more in isolated areas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated higher totals can be expected through Thursday.

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“You’re going to feel the impacts of the storm probably for the next couple of weeks to a couple of months,” meteorologist Benz added.



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