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Ondas Holdings (ONDS) Stock: Stifel Sees 40% Upside Despite Monster Rally
TLDR
- Ondas Holdings has rallied over 500% in 2025 after boosting 2026 revenue targets to $170-$180 million
- Q4 2025 revenue hit $27-$29 million while full-year revenue reached $47.6-$49.6 million, topping forecasts
- Company backlog surged 180% to $65.3 million with cash reserves exceeding $1.5 billion after equity raise
- Vanguard owns 3.60% of shares while retail and public companies control 84.99% of outstanding stock
- Eight analysts rate the stock a Buy with Stifel setting a Street-high $17 price target
Ondas Holdings has posted a stunning 500% gain in 2025. The defense drone specialist continues attracting investors with expanding revenue projections and a swelling order book.
The company hosted an investor day showcasing its evolution from specialized drone systems into a multi-domain autonomy platform. Management increased 2026 revenue guidance to $170-$180 million, up 25% from the prior $140 million forecast.
Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue landed at $27-$29 million, crushing earlier estimates by 51%. Full-year 2025 revenue totaled $47.6-$49.6 million, exceeding previous guidance by 23%.
Financial Position Strengthens
Ondas wrapped up 2025 with $65.3 million in backlog. That marks a 180% spike from $23.3 million reported just six weeks earlier in November.
The company closed a $1 billion equity offering in late 2025. Pro forma cash now exceeds $1.5 billion, giving management substantial resources for growth initiatives.
Public companies and retail investors own 84.99% of shares. ETFs control 8.83% while mutual funds hold 5.28%. Insiders own just 0.87%.
Vanguard tops the institutional ownership list at 3.60%. Vanguard Index Funds owns 2.94%. The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF holds 2.65% while VanEck Defense UCITS ETF owns 1.87%.
Analyst Coverage Turns Positive
Stifel Nicolaus analyst Jonathan Siegmann raised his price target to $17 from $13. The new target implies 40% upside and ranks as the highest on Wall Street.
All eight covering analysts rate the stock a Buy. The consensus price target stands at $12, indicating modest downside from current prices.
Growth comes from the Ondas Autonomous Systems division deploying Iron Drone Raider and Optimus platforms. Recent acquisitions Apeiro Motion and Roboteam add revenue channels.
Counter-unmanned aerial systems should deliver strong results through Iron Drone and Sentrycs platforms. Ground robotics from Roboteam and Apeiro are building momentum as adoption deepens.
The 4M Smart Demining unit should contribute as demining operations accelerate. Management projects solid performance across the portfolio.
Competitor Red Cat Holdings posted Q4 2025 revenue of $24-$26.5 million versus $1.3 million a year earlier. Full-year 2025 revenue reached $38-$41 million, up 153% from 2024.
Draganfly delivered Q3 2025 growth powered by defense and government contracts. The Canadian drone maker benefits from rising NDAA-compliant drone orders and expanding military business.
Ondas trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 31.03 compared to the industry average of 2.25. The stock has jumped 440.5% over six months while the communication network software sector gained 8.9%.
The company’s backlog of $65.3 million as of December 31, 2025 reflects strengthening demand across defense and autonomous systems markets.
