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Silver breaches $100/oz: Is the white metal’s best yet to come?
From safe-haven flows driven by dollar weakness to intensifying demand from green technologies and electric vehicles, silver’s ascent is drawing renewed attention from institutional and retail investors alike.
Analysts across the board have flagged the metal’s evolving role, from a traditional monetary hedge to a critical mineral essential to the global energy and digital transition.
The breakout in prices, both internationally and on the MCX in India, is being interpreted by market participants as more than just a speculative spike, but rather the result of tightening fundamentals, rising financial interest, and a structurally shifting supply landscape.
Record rally builds on global tailwinds and macro shifts
According to Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst – Currencies & Commodities, at Reliance Securities, silver surged nearly 3% toward $99/oz, driven by a weakening dollar and strong safe-haven demand.
“Silver jumped nearly 3% toward $99/oz, reaching new record highs as a weakening dollar provided additional support to the rally in precious metals,” he said. Trivedi added that investors are reallocating to real assets as the dollar weakens due to “shifting US-Europe geopolitical dynamics over Greenland and growing concerns that Europe could weaponize its substantial US asset holdings.”
In addition, Trivedi noted expectations of dovish monetary policy in the US.
“The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week… though markets continue to price in two potential rate cuts later this year,” he observed. With President Donald Trump expected to name a new Fed Chair shortly, a “more dovish appointee [is] likely strengthening expectations for further easing.”
Technical indicators reinforce bullish outlook
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, echoed the bullish sentiment, after the COMEX silver has now surged beyond the $100 mark, registering lifetime highs.
In his note, he wrote, “Silver continues to outperform decisively… Accelerating demand from green energy, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, electronics, and chronic supply deficits are driving a structurally tight market. The relative strength of silver over gold reflects this powerful convergence of investment and industrial demand.”
Ponmudi characterized the rally as fundamentally driven, not speculative. “Supply constraints — especially acute in silver — sustained central-bank buying, rising industrial consumption, and persistent geopolitical and macro risks form the core pillars of the ongoing super-cycle,” he stated.
He further noted that supportive liquidity and inflationary tailwinds are expected to favor medium-to-long-term upside. “Silver, in particular, retains strong relative-performance potential, while gold continues to serve as the most reliable hedge against macro uncertainty,” he concluded.
Price action: COMEX hits $103.26, MCX eyes Rs 3.45–3.50 lakh levels
According to the latest trading data, COMEX Silver was last seen trading at $103.26 per ounce, marking a 7.15% jump, compared to a 1.42% gain in COMEX Gold. Ponmudi’s outlook notes that:
“COMEX Silver remains elevated near $101+, sustaining momentum within a powerful ascending channel… Holding above the $100–$101 region keeps the structure aligned for further upside toward $105–$110.”
On the domestic front, MCX Silver is currently trading in the Rs 3,30,000–Rs 3,40,000/kg range. Ponmudi added that:
“A breakout above Rs 3,45,000–Rs 3,50,000 may accelerate prices toward Rs 3,60,000–Rs 3,80,000 and beyond, supported by supply tightness and industrial tailwinds.”
Jigar Trivedi also pointed to strong retail demand and geopolitical supply bottlenecks as additional catalysts. “The rally in silver has also been fueled by a historic short squeeze and strong retail buying, as well as China’s tightening export controls,” he wrote.
He noted that the positive global momentum is likely to reflect on Indian exchanges. “MCX Silver March prices are likely to appreciate to Rs 3,35,000/kg in tandem with the positive undertone in the world markets,” he said.
Silver is entering a volatile, asymmetric, and potentially historic phase: Kotak report
A recent report by Kotak Securities highlights the shift in silver’s character from a monetary metal to a critical mineral, now indispensable in green energy & solar PV, electrical infrastructure, electronics & semiconductors, EVs & battery ecosystems, and defence & advanced technologies.
Kotak analysts stress that chronic supply deficits have persisted for five consecutive years. “Demand has exceeded mine supply, forcing drawdown of above-ground inventories,” the report states, noting that silver supply is “inelastic” and difficult to scale up quickly
The report goes on to note that “governments are directly and indirectly hoarding silver,” while miners face liquidity stress and bullion banks are constrained by Basel NSFR leverage norms
In terms of future supply, Kotak points out that, “Large private investors — the Whales — have accumulated massive physical silver at much lower prices… Would they dump supply at $100? Highly unlikely.”
The firm notes that only a systemic equity market crash could derail silver prices in the short term, adding that such a dip would likely be “sharp, brief, and followed by aggressive rebounds.”
With silver breaching the $100/oz mark on COMEX and domestic prices pushing toward Rs 3.5 lakh/kg, analysts suggest that a rare alignment of macroeconomic, industrial, and monetary drivers may continue to support the metal’s strength. Whether this rally sustains or consolidates, market participants are now navigating a fundamentally reshaped silver narrative—one marked by constrained supply, rising strategic value, and expanding demand horizons.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
