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I pulled my son out of school aged 14 so he could pursue his business dream & we’ve made £3.6MILLION flogging wax melts

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I pulled my son out of school aged 14 so he could pursue his business dream & we've made £3.6MILLION flogging wax melts

A MUM pulled her son out of school when he was just 14 so he could pursue his business dream – and now the business has made £3.6million.

Noah Carlile-Swift was just a teenager when his mum Tara suggested they start a business together to help build his confidence after his secondary school education left him feeling “stupid”.

Noah Carlile-Swift and mum, Tara, are the co-founders of Freckleface

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Noah Carlile-Swift and mum, Tara, are the co-founders of FrecklefaceCredit: Facebook
Noah was diagnosed with dyslexia and dyspraxia when he was just 11

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Noah was diagnosed with dyslexia and dyspraxia when he was just 11Credit: Facebook
Last year, the company had sales of £3.6million

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Last year, the company had sales of £3.6millionCredit: Instagram

When Noah was just 11, he was diagnosed with dyslexia and dyspraxia, effectively meaning, as Tara, 50, says, he was “bright, at the top end of learning ability, but not in the way that school teaches it. So he struggled with exams and with comprehension, which is mainly what school is about.”

So, with the support of Noah’s school, they started Freckleface, a fragrance company selling wax melts – scented pieces of wax that release an aroma into the room when heated on top of a burner – and soon after Noah left his school in Spalding, Lincolnshire.

Tara told The Times: “They [Noah’s school] agreed that he was doing stuff outside of school with the business – building the website, taking computers apart, designing logos – and was much better using his skills on something he got reward from, rather than feeling stupid every day.”

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Starting as a kitchen table business, Freckleface now has its own factory in rural Lincolnshire and operates five shops in York, Cambridge, Lincoln and Stamford – with plans to open more outlets next year.

Last year, the company had sales of £3.6million and a pre-tax profit of £600,000.

Tara is the managing director while Noah runs the retail side of things with the long-term plan being that he takes over her role in 10 years’ time.

For Tara, it was certainly an unconventional route into being an entrepreneur as her “only qualification” is a Btec in sign writing.

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When she was just six months old her dad died suddenly of a heart attack aged 46 and her mum went on to remarry when Tara was six.

Due to her stepdad’s job in HM Coastguard it meant the family “moved every few years”, including spells in the Isle of Wight and the Gower Peninsula in Wales.

Almost as soon as Tara gained her Btec, it was made virtually redundant due to the march of technology and “the whole signwriting world went digital”.

We took our kids, 15 and 10, out of school to live on a 35-foot boat – we brought our dog too but it almost ended in tragedy

After she “bummed around for a couple of years” Tara did a course to become a personal assistant.

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She chose a college in Nottingham after she met Simon, her husband, on a night out in the city.

Tara said: “I went for the weekend, met Simon, and we moved in together two weeks later. We’ve been together ever since.”

After her PA course she landed a job at Experian, the credit-checking firm, where she spent three years learning about business “through osmosis” as she sat in on meetings with the top team.

Tara added: “At the time, you don’t realise, but you’re absorbing it all, sitting with finance directors taking minutes of all the meetings.”

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She and Simon were also trying for a baby, but after suffering a series of miscarriages, decided to take some time out from the corporate life and head to Australia for a year.

As they landed back in England Tara found out she was pregnant with Noah.

Tara then got a temping job with Boots, the high street chemist, which has its headquarters in Nottingham.

CHANCE CONVERSATION

It was while at Boots a chance conversation lead to a dramatic change in her career.

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Tara said: “I was sitting in the canteen eating my sandwich and the people next to me were talking about products they were developing for pregnant people and I chipped in and said, ‘I don’t think you should do it like that, I think you should think about this,’ and they offered me a job in the marketing department.”

After a couple of years at Boots, she left as part of a restructuring and retrained as a project manager, taking the Prince2 (Projects in Controlled Environments) project management qualification, before working as an administrator for Siemens on railway bids.

That job though meant long hours and frequent travel, with Tara often being away three night a week, which she and Simon juggled alongside his shifts as an IT worker.

To help Noah make his transition to secondary school, Tara quit her job as Siemens and needing an extra income, became a foster carer.

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The couple fostered 23 children in three and a half years.

How to start your own business

Dragon’s Den star Theo Paphitis revealed his tips for budding entrepreneurs:

  • One of the biggest ­barriers aspiring entrepreneurs and business owners face is a lack of confidence. You must believe in your idea — even more than that, be the one boring your friends to death about it.
  • Never be afraid to make decisions. Once you have an idea, it’s the confidence to make decisions that is crucial to starting and maintaining a business.
  • If you don’t take calculated risks, you’re standing still. If a decision turns out to be wrong, identify it quickly and deal with it if you can. Failing that, find someone else who can.
  • It’s OK not to get it right the first time. My experience of making bad decisions is what helped develop my confidence, making me who I am today.
  • Never underestimate the power of social media, and remember the internet has levelled the playing field for small businesses.
  • Don’t forget to dream. A machine can’t do that!

She decided to start her own business just as the fostering was coming to an end but describes the first few months as “absolute carnage”.

Tara said: “We had a baby who we had from birth and he had gastric problems so he didn’t sleep and was sick constantly, plus I had a teenager who was neurodiverse, all while I was doing the business.

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“We were making the products all week and then I was putting them in the car, driving all over the country, sleeping in the car, doing whatever we needed to get the products out there.”

But while it was exhausting, they knew they were on to something.

‘SOMETHING SPECIAL’

She added: “It became obvious really quickly that we had something special.

“We would go to a fair, sell out, come home, make it all again. Go to another show, and sell out. And so on.”

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The baby boy was then adopted permanently by “the most super family in the world” and the Carlile-Swifts still see him every six weeks but Tara said the initial separation was “awful” and she threw herself into the business.

Tara said: “We decided, ‘Let’s take the business really seriously’.

“We came up with a business plan that said we wanted to have stores on every UK high street and for the brand to be global within ten years.”

Freckleface moved into its first industrial unit in 2019, just a few months before Covid hit.

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The pandemic could have derailed production but sales were boosted by people working from home and “everybody wanting their houses to smell great”.

FIRST SHOP

The firm was also helped by reduced rents and breaks on business rates during the pandemic which helped them open their first Freckleface store in Stamford, Lincolnshire, in July 2020.

Another shop in Cambridge opened the following year.

In order to save money Tara and Simone built the shop interiors for the first three stores, with Noah taking on the responsibility for the last two.

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Along with its stores, Freckleface products are also stocked in more than 800 shops nationwide and the brand has run collaborations with the Royal Horticultural Society and Laura Ashley.

Freckleface now has a workforce of 60, including Tara’s husband, who joined in 2020 to run the manufacturing side.

Tara puts a lot of the company’s more recent success down to the initial slog at trade shows and local fairs.

She said: “The customer you meet at a show is a super-loyal customer. They will shop from you online and will seek out your high street stores.

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“And our product is a consumable one, so they tend to come back every month or six weeks to stock up.

“So the hard work of schlepping around the country at shows is why the business built so quickly.”

The family has not raised or borrowed any money to finance the business.

At first, they struggled even to buy a kilo of wax, which would have cost “£10 or so”.

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Even though working capital is “still the biggest stresser that keeps us awake at night and stops us from growing quicker”, Tara added she’s “not interested” in raising investment.

She said: “We want to be a heritage brand that’s still going to be on the high street in 50 years and we will hand down the generations of Frecklefaces.

“We’re not in it to make a quick buck.”

The company name is Tara’s nickname for Noah was he was tiny, because she had been taunted by playground bullies for being a “freckleface” and wanted to ensure Noah thought the name was a term of endearment.

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She said: “We’re very freckly, we’re plastered. And we would call each other freckleface.

“So it was a natural decision when we were naming the business, but we never thought back then we were going to have all these shops.

“And now people shout Freckleface at us across the street, but in a nice way.”

The company opened its first store in Stamford, Lincolnshire, in July 2020

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The company opened its first store in Stamford, Lincolnshire, in July 2020Credit: Instagram
Freckleface now has five branches around the country

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Freckleface now has five branches around the countryCredit: Instagram
Tara pulled her son, Noah, out of school when he was 14

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Tara pulled her son, Noah, out of school when he was 14Credit: Instagram

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Major DIY chain launches huge closing down sale as it shuts six branches before Christmas

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Major DIY chain launches huge closing down sale as it shuts six branches before Christmas

A MAJOR DIY chain has launched a huge closing down sale at several of its stores, which are set to close before Christmas.

Homebase is set to close six stores in December, and shoppers can now take advantage of discounts worth up to 60% at these shops.

The shops are now brandishing huge "Store Closing" signs

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The shops are now brandishing huge “Store Closing” signsCredit: Facebook
As far as discounts go, Homebase's Bromsgrove store has discounted the price of new kitchens by 60%

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As far as discounts go, Homebase’s Bromsgrove store has discounted the price of new kitchens by 60%Credit: Facebook

Stores in Sutton Coldfield, Bromsgrove, Cromer, Fareham, Newark and Rugby will also close over the busy festive period.

Shoppers visiting the affected stores can now get hefty discounts on everything from kitchens to furniture and homeware.

Shops are now brandishing huge “Store Closing. Everything Must Go” signs.

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As far as discounts go, Homebase’s Bromsgrove store has slashed the price of new kitchens by 60%.

Shoppers can also get 40% off radiators and solar lighting and 25% off furniture, tiles and wallpaper.

All six stores listed above will close before Christmas in December, though exact dates have yet to be confirmed.

Three more Homebase sites in Derry/Londonderry, Inverurie, and Omagh are also set to close in the coming months, but Homebase hasn’t confirmed when this will occur.

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All 10 stores were sold to Sainsbury’s after the company agreed to acquire them from the DIY chain in August.

Once all stores are closed, Sainsbury’s will convert the units into new supermarkets.

Britain’s retail apocalypse: why your favourite stores KEEP closing down

The conversion of these sites is anticipated to create approximately 1,000 new jobs.

The acquisition of the stores and refit programme to follow is expected to cost Sainsbury’s £130million.

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Once they are converted, the shop floor area of the stores will range from approximately 15,000 to 40,000 square feet and will add a total of around 235,000 square feet to its supermarket trading space.

Sainsbury’s plans to open the first of these new stores by next summer, marking a significant expansion for the supermarket chain.

Simon Roberts, chief executive officer of Sainsbury’s, said last month: “Sainsbury’s food business continues to go from strength to strength as we push ahead with our Next Level Sainsbury’s plan.

“We have the best combination of value and quality in the market and that’s winning us customers from all our key competitors and driving consistent growth in volume market share.

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“We want to build on this momentum, which is why we are growing our supermarket footprint.”

UP FOR SALE

The sale of these stores follows reports that Homebase’s owner is looking to sell the company

Hilco Capital, which purchased Homebase from Wesfarmers in 2018 for £1, was believed to have started a formal sale process after being approached by The Range.

Other retailers that have previously shown an interest in Homebase include B&M, the London-listed discount retailer.

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It’s understood that this sale process is still ongoing.

Homebase currently operates around 144 locations across the UK.

The DIY chain was founded by the supermarket giant Sainsbury’s and Belgian retailer GB-Inno-BM in 1979.

The first store opened in Croydon in April 1981 and was located on the Purley Way.

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The company steadily grew and, in 1989, opened its 50th store in Norwich.

By 1995, Homebase had 82 stores, and Sainsbury’s acquired 241 Texas Homecare stores, which were soon converted into the Homebase format.

Homebase then operated as a subsidiary under the Home Retail Group from October 2006 until 2016.

Australian retailer Wesfarmers and owner of the Bunnings brand purchased Homebase for £340million in February 2016.

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However, by February 2018, Wesfarmers reported losses relating to the takeover of £57million in the year to June 2017, and soon decided to implement a review of the business.

In May 2018, Hilco bought the hardware store chain for just £1.

Prior to the Hilco takeover, Homebase had 250 stores at its peak and 11,500 staff.

However, the brand soon returned to profit after it entered a CVA agreement and restructured its business.

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Homebase has closed 106 stores since it was taken over by Hilco Capital in 2018.

HISTORY OF HOMEBASE

  • 1979: Homebase was founded by the supermarket chain Sainsbury’s and Belgian retailer GB-Inno-BM
  • April 1981: The first store opened in Croydon
  • October 1981: The second store opened in Leeds
  • 1989: Homebase opened its 50th store in Norwich
  • 1995: The chain boasted 82 stores and Sainsbury’s acquired all 241 Texas Homecare stores
  • 1996-1999: All Texas Homecare stores were converted into the Homebase format
  • 2001: Sainsbury’s sells Homebase but retains a 17.3% minority stake until 2002
  • 2006: Homebase operated as a subsidiary under the Home Retail Group from October 2006 until 2016
  • February 2016: Australian retailer Wesfarmers owner of the Bunnings brand, purchased Homebase for £340million
  • February 2018: Wesfarmers reported losses relating to the takeover of £57million in the year to June 2017, and soon decided to implement a review of the business
  • May 2018: Hilco bought the hardware store chain for just £1
  • 2018-2024: Homebase has closed 106 stores since it was taken over by Hilco Capital

HOMEWARE CHAINS STRUGGLE

It has been a tricky time for home improvement chains, both large and small.

This is because shoppers have been cutting back on spending following the pandemic.

Plus, the recent turmoil in the housing market has meant that homeowners aren’t as focused on DIY projects as they once were.

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In the spring, Kingfisher, which owns B&Q and Screwfix, revealed that annual profits had slumped by more than a quarter.

The company reported a 25.1% drop in underlying pre-tax profits to £568million for the year to January 31, 2024.

Window and door specialist Everest called in administrators in April, leaving customers in the dark about their orders.

Last year, the group had previously cautioned profits would slip after a 36% drop in pre-tax profits from £1billion to £611million in the 12 months to January 2023.

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Rival Wickes also reported a 31% fall in profits to £52million on flat revenues of £1.55billion for 2023.

Windows and doors company Safestyle collapsed into administration in October last year.

The company has a manufacturing site in Wombwell, near Barnsley and 42 sales branches and depots across the country.

Flooring retailer Tapi recently struck a multimillion-pound rescue deal to save the Carpetright brand and dozens of stores in July.

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Tapi purchased 54 of the chain’s stores and two warehouses in a pre-pack administration deal that saved 300 jobs.

However, the deal did not include 200 other stores which all closed their doors.

Why are retailers closing shops?

EMPTY shops have become an eyesore on many British high streets and are often symbolic of a town centre’s decline.

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The Sun’s business editor Ashley Armstrong explains why so many retailers are shutting their doors.

In many cases, retailers are shutting stores because they are no longer the money-makers they once were because of the rise of online shopping.

Falling store sales and rising staff costs have made it even more expensive for shops to stay open. In some cases, retailers are shutting a store and reopening a new shop at the other end of a high street to reflect how a town has changed.

The problem is that when a big shop closes, footfall falls across the local high street, which puts more shops at risk of closing.

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Retail parks are increasingly popular with shoppers, who want to be able to get easy, free parking at a time when local councils have hiked parking charges in towns.

Many retailers including Next and Marks & Spencer have been shutting stores on the high street and taking bigger stores in better-performing retail parks instead.

Boss Stuart Machin recently said that when it relocated a tired store in Chesterfield to a new big store in a retail park half a mile away, its sales in the area rose by 103%.

In some cases, stores have been shut when a retailer goes bust, as in the case of Wilko, Debenhams Topshop, Dorothy Perkins and Paperchase to name a few.

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What’s increasingly common is when a chain goes bust a rival retailer or private equity firm snaps up the intellectual property rights so they can own the brand and sell it online.

They may go on to open a handful of stores if there is customer demand, but there are rarely ever as many stores or in the same places.

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Rightmove rejects revised £6.1bn takeover bid from Murdoch’s REA

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Rightmove rejects revised £6.1bn takeover bid from Murdoch’s REA

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Schroders receives regulatory approval for UK Wealth market focused LTAF

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Investments

Schroders Capital has received regulatory approval for a UK Wealth market focused Long-Term Asset Fund (LTAF).

The firm described the approval as a “significant milestone”.

The LTAF will be managed by Schroders Capital head of global private equity portfolios, Benjamin Alt.

The LTAF is a category of open-ended authorised fund designed to invest efficiently in long-term assets – with the first being launched in March 2023.

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The Schroders Capital Wealth Solutions LTAF has been designed as an Open-Ended Investment Company (OEIC), allowing it to be made available to the UK Wealth market.

The fund is focused on small-mid market buyout and growth investments globally.

Earlier this month, Schroders Capital announced a market first after receiving approval for the first LTAF dedicated to UK venture capital.

Schroders director private markets James Lowe said: “This is a significant step forward; we believe that for the UK wealth community LTAFs will provide another access point to private markets and we expect this LTAF to be a complementary tool to existing private markets structures – like investment trusts – offering new flexibility in how UK investors will be able to meet their objectives via private market investments.”

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Alt added: “We are now able to bring the best of our expertise in private equity to UK private clients in a UK approved structure.

“This means access to the most attractive segments of private equity markets globally through a well-established fund with a proven track record.

“Private equity enables investors to access different parts of the economic ecosystem, bringing the potential for robust investment performance and the benefits of diversification.”

In February 2024, Schroders Greencoat announced the launch of its Global Renewable+ LTAF.

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The specialist renewables and energy transition infrastructure manager of Schroders Capital said this is the first LTAF exclusively dedicated to renewable energy and energy-transition infrastructure.

The fund will target infrastructure supporting energy transition across the UK, US and Europe and will “deploy capital across wind and solar assets, as well as a range of energy-transition assets including hydrogen, heating and storage”.

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I was handed a £7.5k refund after following Martin Lewis’ tip – are you one of thousands owed cash?

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I was handed a £7.5k refund after following Martin Lewis' tip - are you one of thousands owed cash?

HOUSEHOLDS across the UK can challenge their council tax bands and potentially save thousands of pounds.

A Martin Lewis fan has explained how they managed to receive a refund worth £7,500 in this week’s MoneySavingExpert newsletter.

Your council tax payments may also drop after following this tip

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Your council tax payments may also drop after following this tip

They said: “Martin, we challenged our council tax band earlier in the year after watching your show and doing the relevant checks on your website. 

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“Seven months later, it’s been confirmed we’ve gone from Band E to Band D. We’ve also received our refund of overpaid council tax, a whopping £7,500.”

With UK council tax on the rise, a quick and easy check online may reveal if you’re eligible for a significant refund, and lower future costs.

Properties across the UK are allocated a band from A to H and this decides how much council tax you pay.

The more expensive the property, the higher the council tax band.

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However, these bands were created based on property values back in 1991, and many households may find that they should now be in a different band.

You could be on the wrong band if your council tax band is different to your neighbours.

If you challenge the band and are successful and moved to a lower band you could get a refund on incorrect payments from the date you moved to the property and pay less in council tax going forward.

More than one in four people who tried to change their band between 2023 to 2024 were successful, according to government figures.

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How to Qualify for Free or Discounted Council Tax!

However, there are also some risks involved with challenging your council tax that you should be aware of. 

While it is certainly possible you are on a council tax band that is too high, there is a risk you may also be a band too low. 

If you challenge your council tax band and are found out to be on too low of a band, you will be put on a higher band and required to pay more. 

This will not make you popular with your neighbours, as they will also be investigated and potentially moved up a band as well.

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But don’t worry, there are a couple of ways you can work out if you’re on the wrong tax band before officially challenging. 

The first is by checking what band your neighbours are on. Compare your band with homes as similar as possible to yours.

The band of every property in England and Wales is available on tax.service.gov.uk/check-council-tax-band, and the band of every property in Scotland is available via the Scottish Assessors’ Association.

Similar or identical houses in the same neighbourhood should be on the same council tax band.

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A follow-up method is through a valuation check. You will need to work out what your home was worth in 1991, which is when council tax bands were defined.

When doing this, it is also worth checking your neighbouring properties prices in the same year to avoid any anomalies. 

You can find historical sales price information on sites such as Nethouseprices, Zoopla and Rightmove, as well as gov.uk/search-house-prices.

When you know what your home was valued at in 1991, you can compare to the tables below and check it was placed in the right band at the time.

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England:

A – All properties under £40,000

B – £40,001 to £52,000

C – 52,001 to £68,000

D – £68,001 to £88,000

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E –  £88,001 to £120,000

F – £120,001 to £160,000

G – £160,001 to £320,000

H – Over £320,000

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Scotland:

A – All properties under £27,000

B – £27,001 to £35,000

C – £35,001 to £45,000

D – £45,001 to £58,000

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E – £58,001 to £80,000

F – £80,001 to £106,000

G – £106,001 to £212,000

H – Over £212,000

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How to challenge your council tax band

If you think your council tax band is wrong, you could be paying more than you should. Here’s how to challenge it.

In England or Wales head to Gov.uk and contact the Valuation Office Agency (VOA) or in Scotland use the Scottish Assessors Association .

You’ll be asked for evidence that your Council Tax band is wrong and need to give the information when you challenge.

Or, simply pop your postcode onto into the online tool at tax.service.gov.uk, select your address, and follow the link to see if you have grounds to challenge your band. You’ll be guided through a checklist to help make your case.

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Your local assessor will get in touch to review your case.

What are the possible outcomes?

The first potential outcome is that you get told you cannot challenge, but don’t be put off by this. 

Technically speaking, you can only formally challenge your council tax band if you’ve lived in the property for six months or less.

But, Martin Lewis recommends still contacting the VOA with evidence of why you think your band should be changed, and it should decide if it’s enough to review your case.

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The second outcome is that your challenge gets rejected. If you think this is the wrong decision, you have three months to appeal to the Valuation Tribunal. 

For those in Scotland, if you’re formally able to challenge your band, but the challenge can not be resolved by your local assessor within six months, the dispute will then be referred to the Valuation Appeal Committee.

The final outcome is that your challenge gets accepted. You can expect to see your band lowered, and make sure you get a rebate from when you moved into the property, or 1993, whichever is later.

How much can you expect to save on council tax?

If you do succeed in getting your band lowered, then typically you can expect to pay between £100 and £400 less in council tax per year.

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You should also expect a refund that will cover all the years you have been overpaying, backdated to when you first moved into the property. 

Or as far back as when the tax first started in 1993. Backed payments can be worth in the thousands.

LOCAL authorities can offer you a discount or wipe your bill completely depending on your circumstances through council tax support.

You can get a 25% discount on your council tax if you are the only person living in the home or if you live with other people who are classed as “disregarded”.

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Someone is classed as disregarded if they are severely mentally impaired, a carer, in hospital, a care home or hostel, has another main residence, or is a student, youth trainee or apprentice.

For example, if one single adult lives with a student, they can get 25% off their council tax.

If you live with someone who doesn’t have to pay council tax, such as a carer, you could get a reduction of up to 50% too.

And, if you live in an all-student household you can get a 100% discount.

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Pensioners can also get a council tax discount, including those on the Guarantee Credit element of Pension Credit who can get 100% off.

If not, you could still get help if you have a low income and less than £16,000 in savings.

Meanwhile, a pensioner who lives alone also qualifies for a 25% discount.

Low-income households or those on benefits can also apply for a reduction on their council tax.

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Whether you are eligible depends on where you live.

You could also get a deferral if you’re struggling to pay your bill, or you can speak to your council about setting up a payment plan to manage the cost.

Always remember though, if you are struggling you should contact your council as early as possible.

That will avoid your situation deteriorating and landing you in trouble.

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LondonMetric buys urban logistics portfolio for £78m

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LondonMetric buys urban logistics portfolio for £78m

The deal reflects a blended net initial yield of 5.8%, which rises to 6.9% over the next two years.

The post LondonMetric buys urban logistics portfolio for £78m appeared first on Property Week.

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Should investors make the most of stocks’ seasonal weakness?

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Trevor Greetham
Trevor Greetham
Trevor Greetham

The summer is often choppy and this year was no exception. Stocks were near all-time highs at mid-year with volatility close to all-time lows.

August then saw the worst one-day sell off since 2020 and early September the worst week since 2022.

The zig-zag pattern is continuing, with investors worried about the risk of recession in the US. With global growth slowing and inflation cooling off, we are in a reflation phase, in which central banks usually lower interest rates and government bonds do well.

It’s a harder call for stocks.

If a recession is in the offing, the first Federal Reserve rate cut can signal the start of a bear market. If growth remains firm and rates are cut for inflation reasons, it can be bullish. Time will tell. In the meantime, we have a broadly neutral view on stocks while favouring bonds over commodities.

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Most likely, stocks will come out of the summer doldrums on a positive footing, but things may get worse before they get better

Averages can hide a lot of information but September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks, with returns falling short of cash by 1.7% since 1986. Over the last five years, stocks have underperformed cash on average by 3.5% in September.

We put seasonal weakness down to the fact it’s hard for investors to get a good take on earnings trends during the quieter summer months and market liquidity isn’t great.

The business cycle has been particularly hard to read this year, with the post-pandemic swings in growth and inflation behind us.

The onset of Covid-19 was like a rock thrown into the pond and the waves are only just settling. Global growth has been steady this year, with a strong US economy making up for softness elsewhere.

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Averages can hide a lot of information but September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks

Meanwhile, inflation is back in a range consistent with central bank targets. Investors were hoping central banks would cut rates for inflation reasons, but a run of weaker manufacturing data and US jobs reports is testing nerves.

We wouldn’t be surprised to see further volatility in the near term, especially with a contentious and close fought US election in the background. That said, our base case is that, true to seasonal form, stocks will rally into the New Year on the back of Fed rate cuts and more reassuring US data.

Investor sentiment can be a useful tool for timing moves back into stocks. Three times in the last year, we’ve seen our composite sentiment indicator move into overly bearish territory and, each time, the market has rallied.

In October and April, the sell-off was due to geopolitical risk and, in August, on concerns around the health of the US economy and a surge in the yen that triggered a disorderly unwind of carry trades.

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The business cycle has been particularly hard to read this year, with the post-pandemic swings in growth and inflation behind us

Stocks saw four weeks of declines with volatility spiking to the second highest level since the global financial crisis. Depressed investor sentiment again signalled the lows and markets recovered quickly.

For active investors who can be nimble, volatility can be an opportunity, but we’d trade equity exposure around a neutral position until we know more.

For now, we have higher conviction on a positive view on government bonds and a negative view on commodities. We don’t currently expect a US recession, as service sector activity remains strong and interest rates have been on hold rather than rising.

Most likely, stocks will come out of the summer doldrums on a positive footing, but things may get worse before they get better.

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Trevor Greetham is head of multi asset at Royal London Asset Management 

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