Biggest one-day gain in six years as the Middle East conflict disrupts key oil infrastructure and Strait of Hormuz traffic

The price of oil has surpassed the $100 threshold for the first time since the energy crisis in 2022, with analysts warning the economic ramifications could exceed those of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, jumped more than 25 per cent to peaks of $118 per barrel as the week’s trading commenced in Asia – representing the commodity’s largest single-day rise in six years.

The latest spike occurred as the Middle East conflict continued to strike crucial oil infrastructure, prompting nations to reduce production whilst movement through the vital Strait of Hormuz – through which approximately a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes – has virtually ceased.

Kuwait’s state oil company announced over the weekend it was reducing output, whilst the United Arab Emirates’ state-run oil firm stated it was “managing” some output, indicating potential production reductions.

In 2022, Brent crude momentarily exceeded $120 a barrel and reached peaks of $145 a barrel in 2008, with both movements resulting in significant repercussions for the global economy, as reported by City AM.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, observed Iraq was now producing a quarter of the oil it generated before the US and Israel attacks on Iran, at 1.3m barrels per day down from 4.3m.

“This is roughly three per cent of global oil supply lost in a single event. Shockingly, this is worse than the oil supply situation after Russia attacked Ukraine.”

Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs has predicted the price of oil could surpass the $150 threshold by year-end if the Middle East conflict remains unresolved.

Analysts at the investment bank have cautioned the ramifications of the US and Israel’s confrontation with Iran could prove 17 times more severe than the April 2022 peak, when global economies grappled with an energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Goldman Sachs had anticipated that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz would decline to 15 per cent of normal levels. However, the Iranian blockade has meant only ten per cent of oil shipments that typically transit the waterway have managed to pass through.

On Friday evening, analysts at the Wall Street powerhouse issued a note stating: “Based on these new data, developments and the size of the shock, we now think that oil prices would likely exceed $100 next week if no signs of solutions emerge by then”.

In a Truth Social post responding to the latest price spike, Donald Trump has described it as “a very small price to pay for USA, and world”.

The US president declared the oil price rises “will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over”. Elsewhere, the Financial Times has reported that G7 finance ministers are poised to discuss a potential co-ordinated release of petroleum from reserves, overseen by the International Energy Agency in an urgent meeting today, aiming to address soaring oil prices amidst conflict in the Middle East.

The ministers and Faith Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, are anticipated to conduct a call at 8:30am New York time to explore strategies to alleviate the impact of the Iran war.

The following segment was excerpted from the Royce Small-Cap Fund FY 2025 Manager Commentary.

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Five of the Fund’s 10 equity sectors made a positive impact on calendar year performance, led by Industrials, Financials, and Information Technology while the

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The Indian rupee remains under pressure amid escalating geopolitical tensions and a sharp surge in global crude oil prices, with currency markets closely watching the next move by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). As the dollar strengthens globally and oil-import demand rises, traders expect continued volatility in the domestic currency.

The rupee is currently hovering around the 92.2 mark against the US dollar, reflecting growing concerns about India’s import bill and external balances. The spike in crude prices, triggered by the intensifying conflict in the Middle East, has added to the downside risks for the currency.

Speaking on the outlook, Naveen Mathur from Anand Rathi Share said the rupee could weaken further in the near term if geopolitical tensions persist and oil prices remain elevated.

“The rupee has a depreciative stance, as I said earlier too in the call. The rupee is at around 92.21. A further fall to an extent of 92.30 or 92.40 is looking like a possibility. Sharp escalation in the Middle East conflict and the soaring crude oil prices would definitely be a dampener for the rupee against the dollar,” he said.

He pointed out that the currency had earlier found some support due to intervention by the central bank, but global developments have once again tilted the balance against the rupee.

“We did see the RBI intervention last week, which held the rupee against the dollar to around 91.50 levels. But post that, the escalation in the Middle East is putting pressure on oil, and WTI and Brent are quoting at around $114 a barrel, which is plus $25 a barrel just in the opening session,” Mathur said.
According to him, the combination of higher crude prices, geopolitical uncertainty and a stronger US dollar is weighing heavily on emerging market currencies, including the rupee.“The rupee depreciative stance is a possibility to continue in the near future until and unless we see a major positive development on the Middle East tensions. The dollar is also appreciating. The dollar index is at around 99.60 from the lows of around 95 two months earlier. The dollar appreciation, crude, and Middle East tensions are all putting pressure on the rupee on the downside,” he added.

Another key factor that could intensify pressure on the rupee is rising demand for dollars from oil marketing companies (OMCs), which typically increase their purchases when crude prices rise.

“Exactly, it would be the case. The dollar demand would be there, which would be a further dampener to the rupee against the dollar. RBI intervention would be expected to hold the rupee,” Mathur said.

However, he noted that the central bank’s focus remains on managing volatility rather than defending a specific exchange rate level.

“The RBI has said that they would not see any particular level for the rupee against the dollar. They would maintain volatility, or rather curb volatility. At the same time, imports, the fiscal deficit, and the current account deficit would be the key to watch out for, and hence RBI intervention would be critical,” he said.

He also suggested that state-run oil companies and large public sector firms may step up their dollar purchases in the current environment.

“I am sure that the ONGCs or the PSUs of the world would definitely be looking for dollar buying at this stage,” Mathur noted.

Whether the RBI will step in again to support the rupee remains uncertain, especially with global currency flows currently favouring the dollar.

“Anybody’s guess, but it would be the decision of the RBI monetary policy stance to hold the rupee at a certain level. If that is the case, the RBI might intervene before the rupee sees further depreciation against the dollar,” he said.

For now, the trajectory of the rupee will likely depend on how the geopolitical situation unfolds, along with the movement in crude oil prices and the strength of the US dollar in global markets.

City Region is promoting £10bn growth plan and projects including North Docks regeneration

Liverpool City Region leaders are heading to global property forum MIPIM on the French Riviera this week with a clear message – ‘now is the time to invest’.

Metro Mayor Steve Rotheram and leaders from the public and private sectors will be in Cannes to promote £11bn of investment opportunities and a decade-long blueprint to grow the economy by £10bn.

Among the opportunities they will be promoting include “the City Region’s largest ever Investment Fund” that they hope will drive growth, create jobs and bring tens of thousands of homes to the six boroughs. More details will also be revealed about a new Mayoral Development Corporation to lead regeneration in Liverpool’s North Docks between the city centre and the Hill Dickinson Stadium, while leaders will also promote recent investments including tech giant Kyndryl’s move to Liverpool that could create up to 1,000 jobs.

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Liverpool City Region Mayor Steve Rotheram said: “If we’re serious about creating good jobs, transforming the face of our area and building the homes our residents need, then we have to be in the room with investors.

“There’s renewed confidence and interest in our region. That’s why we’re heading to MIPIM, armed with £11 billion worth of genuine, investible opportunities – from the transformation of Liverpool’s North Docks through a new Mayoral Development Corporation, to major regeneration around Central Station, Health Innovation Liverpool and the continued growth of our life sciences and innovation campuses.

“In the Liverpool City Region, we believe growth should mean something to everyone – whether that’s better-paid jobs, thriving neighbourhoods or more opportunity for local people.

“And we’ve shown we’re prepared to put our own money on the table to make that happen, whether investing in new trains, bringing buses back under public control or backing the infrastructure businesses rely on, like our own digital connectivity LCR Connect, a publicly-owned broadband network.

“We’re looking for long-term partners who share that ambition. Investors who want to grow with us, create lasting value and be co-authors of the next chapter in our region’s story.”

Other key opportunities to be promoted at MIPIM will include £125m plans to develop Maghull Health Park and projects to expand two innovation campuses – Knowledge Quarter Liverpool and Sci-Tech Daresbury. Leaders will also promote £5bn plans to redevelop Liverpool Central Station.

Cllr Liam Robinson, leader of Liverpool City Council and LCR cabinet member for innovation, said: “Attracting investment into our city region is essential for the jobs and housing that we need for our future economic success. MIPIM puts us in front of the world’s biggest investors, and with our new masterplans, shared vision and incredible development opportunities we will be making a compelling case that now is an ideal time to invest in the Liverpool City Region.”

Cllr Anthony Burns, leader of St Helens Borough Council and LCR cabinet member for Net Zero, said: “We head to MIPIM with one of our largest public and private sector delegations confident in the knowledge the Liverpool City Region will be presenting a compelling investment proposition to investors. With our globally recognised industrial and business strengths, world-leading innovation, more than £11bn of investment opportunities and new comprehensive plans to accelerate growth, we firmly believe now is a great time to invest in the City Region.”

Colin Sinclair, chief executive of Knowledge Quarter Liverpool and Sciontec Developments as also chair of the Invest Liverpool City Region partnership taskforce, said: “Something very special is happening in the Liverpool City Region that’s rightly getting noticed across the world and is attracting major overseas investors. With our global brand, world-leading innovation and brilliant people, we’re a city region with momentum and unrivalled opportunities.”