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Why China can withstand oil’s surge past $100 more easily than other countries

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More concerned about China in medium-term on energy, says Longview's McNeal

A drone view of an Evergreen container ship docked at the port of Umm Qasr during nighttime operations in Basra, Iraq, March 5, 2026.

Mohammed Aty | Reuters

BEIJING — Surging oil prices following the Iran war are expected to impact China less than in past years as the country has built large crude stockpiles and diversified its energy sources, including renewables.

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As oil prices climbed past $100 a barrel for the first time in four years, OCBC analysts said China may be “less sensitive to a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz than many of its Asian peers.”

“China has accumulated one of the world’s largest strategic and commercial crude reserves,” the analysts said, adding that its “rapid transition toward electric vehicles and renewable energy provides an additional structural hedge.”

China held an estimated 1.2 billion barrels of onshore crude stockpiles as of January.

That’s about 3 to 4 months of reserves, which will delay the economic impact, Rush Doshi, director of the China Strategy Initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

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“China has taken the last 20 years to reduce some of its dependence on maritime oil flows,” Doshi said, noting that new overland oil pipelines and some diversification to renewables mean the country now only relies on the Strait of Hormuz for about 40% to 50% of its seaborne oil imports.

By 2030, China aims to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to 25%, up from 21.7% in 2025.

The strait connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and global shipping routes. It’s a narrow passage with Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south. About 31% of the world’s seaborne oil flows passed through the Strait of Hormuz last year, or around 13 million barrels a day of crude, according to Kpler.

However, oil shipments through the strait account for only 6.6% of China’s overall energy consumption, according to Nomura’s chief China economist Ting Lu.

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Natural gas imports through the route account for another 0.6%, he said.

The shift reflects two decades of strategic transition, giving China a unique position in global energy markets.

More concerned about China in medium-term on energy, says Longview's McNeal

The U.S. is the world’s largest consumer of oil, followed by China and India, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which was founded in 1960 to coordinate global oil supply.

But China is the largest crude importer, buying nearly twice as much as the U.S., while India ranks third, OPEC data showed.

Of the three, India is the most dependent on petroleum imports, accounting for one-fourth of its total consumption, according to CNBC’s analysis of U.S. Energy Information Administration data for 2023.

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China was lower at 14%, while the U.S. produced most of its petroleum needs, according to the 2023 data, which includes “other liquids” in the petroleum category.

Diverging energy strategies

While the U.S. has ramped up domestic oil production over the past decade, China has rapidly diversified its energy sources.

Renewables, excluding nuclear power and hydropower, accounted for 1.2% of China’s total energy consumption in 2023, up from 0.2% two decades earlier, according to CNBC calculations based on International Energy Agency data.

India and the U.S. recorded a far lower share of renewables in 2023, at 0.2% each.

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That’s a tiny figure for now. But the growing share of renewables in China’s energy mix has global implications.

China’s electric vehicle push, especially in trucks, has already displaced over 1 million barrels per day of implied oil demand, Rhodium Group said in July 2025.

The research firm expected that figure to rise by around 600,000 barrels per day over the following 12 months.

More than half of China’s new passenger vehicles sold are now new-energy vehicles, meaning they rely more on batteries than on gasoline.

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“With road fuel demand already showing signs of peaking and renewable capacity expanding rapidly, China’s sensitivity to oil price fluctuations is declining on a [year-on-year] basis,” the OCBC analysts said.

“Over time, the electrification of transportation and the expansion of renewable power generation will further insulate the economy from oil-related shocks.”

Oil and natural gas only account for 4% of China’s power mix, far lower than the 40% to 50% share seen in many Asian economies, the analysts said.

Electricity, largely generated from coal and a growing amount of renewables, now accounts for a growing share of China’s total energy consumption, according to energy think tank Ember.

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Fossil fuels still loom large

Renewables provided about 80% of China’s new electric power demand in 2024, Ember said.

But coal remains a significant, albeit stagnating, source of energy in the country. China was the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal in 2023, despite efforts to reduce carbon emissions.

U.S. sanctions on Iran have also made China one of the few buyers of Tehran’s oil.

Iran accounted for about 20% of China’s oil imports, though much of that volume could mostly be replaced by increased oil imports from Russia, said Ano Kuhanathan, Head of Corporate Research at Allianz Trade.

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The larger risk lies in the roughly 5 million barrels per day of oil China imports from other Middle Eastern countries through the Strait of Hormuz, Kuhanathan said.

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As the Iran war enters its second week, it remains unclear when the conflict will end.

“A shock like this would likely reinforce the direction China is already taking rather than change it,” said Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst, Asia, at Ember.

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“It highlights the risks of relying heavily on imported oil and gas. And that’s why the transition is not only about building more wind and solar, but also about economy-wide decarbonisation,” she said.

However, change doesn’t happen easily. The country’s fossil fuel industry is dominated by China’s state-owned corporations, which tend to be less dynamic than their private-sector peers.

China may also continue building crude reserves.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in February it expects China to expand strategic stockpiles by around 1 million barrels a day in 2026.

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China’s crude oil imports dropped by nearly 2% in 2024, according to Wind Information. But as Middle East tensions started to simmer last year, China’s crude imports climbed 4.6% to a record of around 580 million metric tons.

“China is materially exposed but more flexible,” Kpler’s principal insight analyst Go Katayama previously told CNBC.

— CNBC’s Sam Meredith, Ying Shan Lee and Penny Chen contributed to this report.

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Crypto World

Alphabet (GOOG) Stock: Pentagon to Receive Gemini AI Agents for 3 Million Defense Personnel

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Key Highlights

  • Pentagon’s complete 3 million-person workforce will gain access to Google’s Gemini AI agents
  • Initial rollout targets unclassified systems, while discussions progress for classified network integration
  • Platform offers eight pre-configured agents designed for budget creation, meeting notes, and strategic planning
  • Defense Department users have generated 40 million prompts through Google’s AI interface since its December debut
  • Training completion remains limited to just 26,000 personnel despite significantly higher adoption rates

Google, owned by Alphabet, has initiated a comprehensive deployment of its Gemini AI agent technology throughout the United States Department of Defense, encompassing approximately three million personnel.


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The initial phase focuses on unclassified network infrastructure, where the majority of Defense Department personnel operate daily. Emil Michael, serving as under secretary of defense for research and engineering, indicated this strategic starting point.

Michael revealed that negotiations with Google are currently active regarding expansion into classified and top-secret cloud computing environments.

Google Vice President Jim Kelly made the announcement public through a Tuesday blog entry. Defense personnel will have the capability to create customized AI agents through natural language commands, eliminating any programming requirements.

The platform launches with eight ready-to-deploy agents. These automated assistants handle functions including meeting documentation, financial planning, and verification of proposed initiatives against national defense objectives.

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Certain agents are designed to provide operational value, assisting with logistical planning and resource forecasting for military operations — capabilities available even on unclassified infrastructure.

Google’s conversational AI interface on the GenAI.mil website has been operational since December. During this period, 1.2 million Defense Department personnel have engaged with the system, generating 40 million distinct queries and submitting over four million documents.

The usage volume demonstrates significant adoption. The Gemini agent platform becomes accessible through this identical portal starting Tuesday.

Personnel Education Falls Short of Adoption Rates

A significant challenge exists. Just 26,000 Pentagon employees have completed formal instruction on appropriate AI utilization. Upcoming educational programs have reached capacity, a Pentagon representative confirmed.

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Michael emphasized the importance of proper training. “It saves you a lot of time in the middle, but you have to review at the end to make sure there’s no hallucinations,” he said.

Bridging the divide between actual usage and completed training represents a priority as the Defense Department expands agent availability.

Military Exercise Planning Sees Dramatic Efficiency Gains

The technology has already demonstrated measurable impact in operational settings. Kenneth Harvey, who directs the Mission Training Complex at Fort Bragg, explained that developing a military exercise scenario accommodating up to 50,000 simulated troops previously required his nine-member team six months.

Leveraging the AI platform, a comparable exercise for US Southern Command reached completion within six weeks.

Harvey emphasized that “human eyes vetted every word” throughout the process.

This latest initiative represents a significant expansion of collaboration between Google and the Pentagon, a relationship that has experienced turbulence. In 2018, thousands of Google staff members protested the corporation’s participation in Project Maven, an AI-powered drone surveillance initiative. Google declined to continue that contract.

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The technology company subsequently revised its policies regarding military contracts. Michael characterized Google as a “trusted” and “supportive” partner.

The Pentagon has simultaneously broadened its artificial intelligence partnerships. Recent agreements with OpenAI and Elon Musk’s xAI enable operations on restricted networks — developments that coincided with deteriorating relations with Anthropic.

The Department of Defense designated Anthropic a supply-chain security concern last week following the company’s objections regarding potential AI applications. Anthropic has responded by filing legal action against the government challenging this classification.

Prior to this conflict, Anthropic maintained exclusive status as the sole AI vendor with access to the Pentagon’s classified cloud infrastructure.

GOOG was trading at $308.84, up 0.81% on the day at the time of writing.

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Canaan Boosts Bitcoin, Ether Treasury as Miners Sell BTC

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Canaan Boosts Bitcoin, Ether Treasury as Miners Sell BTC

Bitcoin mining company Canaan increased its digital asset holdings to record levels in February, signaling a long-term accumulation strategy despite challenging market conditions for miners.

In its February unaudited mining update issued Tuesday, Canaan said it produced 86 Bitcoin (BTC) during the month, bringing its total holdings to 1,793 BTC, a new record for the company.

Canaan’s Ether (ETH) holdings also reached a record high of 3,952 ETH, with the combined value of its digital asset treasury totaling roughly $128 million at current prices.

The company’s Nasdaq-traded shares (CAN) were up 1% in late Tuesday morning trading. Sector-tracking exchange-traded fund CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WMGI) was up 2.5%.

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Chairman and CEO Nangeng Zhang said the company remains focused on a long-term strategy of building its digital asset reserves.

“We maintain a long-term perspective on building and managing our digital asset treasury,” Zhang said.

Canaan’s Bitcoin holdings over time. Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NET

Canaan also expanded its mining operations, with its installed hashrate reaching 14.75 exahashes per second (EH/s).

The update follows Canaan’s recent expansion in the United States. In February, the company acquired a 49% stake in three Bitcoin mining projects in West Texas for $39.75 million, a move aimed at increasing its North American mining capacity.

The Texas facilities are expected to boost Canaan’s presence in one of the world’s largest Bitcoin mining regions.

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Related: Bitcoin miner production data reveals scale of US winter storm disruption

Miners ramp up Bitcoin sales as margins tighten

Canaan’s update comes as Bitcoin miners increasingly sell portions of their reserves amid worsening market conditions.

The trend has accelerated since October, when the biggest crypto by market capitalization peaked around $126,000 before falling by more than half to the low-$60,000 range, squeezing mining profitability.

The downturn has compounded what some analysts describe as the harshest margin environment the sector has faced, with rising operational costs and lower BTC prices weighing on miners’ balance sheets.

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Data from TheEnergyMag’s Miners Weekly shows that publicly traded mining companies have sold more than 15,000 BTC since October. The total includes several large transactions, such as Cango’s February sale of 4,451 BTC and Core Scientific’s plan to sell up to 2,500 BTC this quarter.

Bitcoin miners have offloaded a growing share of their BTC holdings since October. Source: TheEnergyMag

The shift marks a departure from the trend seen earlier in 2025, when many miners adopted a de facto treasury strategy, choosing to retain a larger share of the Bitcoin they mined rather than selling it immediately.

Related: Bitcoin mining’s 2026 reckoning: AI pivots, margin pressure and a fight to survive