Rick Rieder Emerges as Leading Contender for Federal Reserve Chair Position

TLDR:

• Rick Rieder’s Fed chair odds skyrocketed from 3% to 50% on Polymarket within 10 days of meeting Trump. 
• Trump described Rieder as “very impressive” and hinted the final Fed chair decision may already be made. 
• Kevin Hassett’s odds collapsed from 85% in December to just 6% as Trump reportedly wants him at NEC. 
• Rieder manages $3 trillion at BlackRock but lacks political experience compared to traditional Fed candidates. 

BlackRock executive Rick Rieder has surged ahead in prediction markets as the favored candidate to lead the Federal Reserve. 

The chief investment officer of global fixed income met with President Trump last week, prompting a dramatic shift in betting odds. 

Rieder now commands 50% probability on Polymarket, overtaking previous frontrunner Kevin Warsh. 

Trump described the BlackRock executive as “very impressive” during a Wednesday interview with CNBC.

Trump Signals Imminent Decision on Fed Leadership

Rieder’s odds on Polymarket jumped from 3% to 30% within 10 days, eventually reaching 50%. Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh previously held 45% odds but has since fallen behind. 

White House economist Kevin Hassett experienced the steepest decline, dropping from 85% on December 2 to just 6% currently.

President Trump suggested the selection process has narrowed significantly. During his CNBC interview Wednesday, Trump stated, “I’d say we’re down to three, but we’re down to two, and I can probably tell you, we’re down to maybe one, in my mind.” 

The president has signaled an announcement could arrive well before Jerome Powell’s term expires in May.

Market observers noted Trump’s preference for practical experience over academic credentials. Rieder manages approximately $3 trillion in assets at BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager. 

His background differs markedly from traditional Fed chair candidates who typically come from academic or government positions.

Reports indicate Trump wants Hassett to remain at the National Economic Council. This development appears to have cleared the path for alternative candidates. 

Traders on prediction markets responded swiftly to these signals, repricing their bets accordingly.

Wall Street Experience Versus Political Background

Rieder brings extensive macroeconomic and monetary policy expertise from his role at BlackRock. 

He has served on advisory committees for both the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve. However, his political experience remains limited compared to other top candidates.

The BlackRock executive has never worked within a presidential administration. He lacks direct experience within the Federal Reserve system itself. Additionally, Rieder has no background serving on Capitol Hill in any capacity.

Crypto trader BuBBliK analyzed the market shift on social media, stating that “Rick Rieder has surged to a 50% probability to become the next Fed Chair.” 

The trader identified three key factors driving the surge. President Trump called the BlackRock CIO “very impressive” in Davos, providing the initial catalyst. 

BuBBliK noted that Rieder “is not an academic. He is a market mechanic,” aligning with Trump’s stated preferences for practical experience.

The shift represents a potential departure from conventional Fed chair selections. Markets are now pricing in what some call a “BlackRock takeover” of monetary policy leadership. 

Prediction market volume has increased substantially as traders adjust positions based on Trump’s latest comments. BuBBliK observed, “We are watching the world’s most important financial appointment change direction in real time.”

Powell’s chairmanship ends in May, though Trump has maintained a contentious relationship with the current Fed leader. 

The president has enjoyed what observers describe as a reality-show-like selection process. Financial markets will likely remain sensitive to any further signals about the appointment.