ASEAN e-commerce projected to surge 16% by 2025, fueled by AI advancements

The 10th edition of the e-Conomy SEA report, released on November 11, 2025, by Google, Temasek, and Bain & Company, reveals that Southeast Asia’s digital economy is poised to surpass $300 billion in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) by 2025, a milestone 1.5 times higher than the initial forecast from a decade ago This growth is driven by a 7.4x increase in GMV and an 11.2x jump in revenue since 2016, with revenues projected to reach $135 billion as profitability accelerates across the region The report marks a significant expansion, now covering all ten ASEAN member states for the first time, including Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, providing a more holistic view of the region’s digital economy.

Key highlights from the e-Conomy SEA 2025 report include:

• E-commerce Growth:
  • Expected GMV of $181 billion in 2025, a 16% increase from $156 billion in 2024.
  • The digital economy, encompassing services like transport and delivery, is anticipated to grow by 15% to $299 billion.
• Drivers of Growth:
  • Video Commerce: Expected to account for 25% of all e-commerce GMV in 2025, a significant rise from less than 5% in 2022. This trend is particularly impacting fashion and accessories, as well as beauty and personal care.
  • AI-Powered Recommendations: A significant 68% of consumers report that AI influences their purchasing decisions, highlighting its critical role in modern shopping behavior.
• Sector-Specific Growth:
  • Food Delivery: Projected to grow by 14% to $22 billion.
  • Transport Services: Expected to increase by 16% to $11.1 billion, driven by subscription bundles and affordable ride-sharing.
  • Online Travel: Anticipated to grow by 11%, though average trip durations are shortening due to rising prices and a prioritization of shorter trips.
• Startup Funding Landscape:
  • Southeast Asia is experiencing a weaker startup funding environment, with a substantial decrease in private funding deals.
  • Macroeconomic volatility has led investors to adopt a cautious approach, though global momentum in AI investment is beginning to stimulate regional innovation.

AI is significantly influencing consumer purchasing behavior in the Southeast Asian digital economy, with 68% of consumers indicating its impact on their decisions. This influence is a critical factor contributing to the growth of the e-commerce market in the region.

Key points regarding AI’s influence include:

• Recommendation Features: AI-powered recommendation features, as implemented by platforms like Amazon, are playing a crucial role in guiding consumer choices.
• Overall Impact: Florian Hoppe, a partner at Bain, stated that AI is starting to play a critical role in shopping behavior, directly affecting what consumers decide to purchase.

The region’s digital transformation, coupled with a growing middle-class population and improved internet penetration, has significantly contributed to the surge in online shopping. Additionally, the rise of mobile-first platforms and seamless payment solutions has enhanced user experiences, driving higher consumer engagement. Analysts predict that sectors like fashion, beauty, and electronics will remain dominant, while emerging categories such as groceries and health products are expected to gain traction. As competition intensifies, e-commerce players are likely to invest heavily in personalized marketing strategies and last-mile delivery innovations to capture market share.

This impact of AI is occurring within the broader context of a growing digital economy in Southeast Asia. The e-commerce segment is projected to grow by 16% in 2025, reaching an estimated Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of $181 billion across six key markets. The overall digital economy, encompassing services like ride-hailing and food delivery, is expected to grow by 15% to $299 billion.

The report identifies a transition from hyper-growth to sustainable profitability, with key sectors showing strong momentum. E-commerce is projected to reach $185 billion in GMV and $41 billion in revenue by 2025, fueled by the rapid rise of video commerce, which is expected to account for 25% of total e-commerce GMV Food delivery platforms are nearing or achieving profitability through optimized logistics and diversified revenue streams like advertising and cloud kitchens The transport sector is growing via tiered services and in-app ads, while online travel is gaining traction due to high travel rates and government-backed visa schemes Online media is projected to hit $34 billion in GMV, driven by retail media networks and AI-powered advertising Digital financial services (DFS) are maturing beyond payments, with cross-border QR interoperability now operational in eight countries and digital lending and wealth management expanding rapidly

Private funding for the digital economy is showing a cautious rebound, increasing 15% year-on-year to approximately $8 billion, with a significant focus on late-stage deals and the DFS sector, which accounts for about half of the total deal value This shift reflects investor confidence in proven monetization models and clearer pathways to profitability, with a growing emphasis on dependable exit opportunities like IPOs The region is also rapidly emerging as a global leader in AI adoption, with consumer interest in AI topics three times the global average and 79% of workers reporting they have learned to use AI Over $2.3 billion has been invested in over 680 AI startups in the past year, accounting for over 30% of private funding in the first half of 2025 This AI boom is supported by a surge in data center capacity, with over 4,600 MW of new planned capacity, leading to an 180% growth in the region—faster than the 120% projected for the rest of Asia Pacific