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Brokerage that nailed gold, silver bull run targets fresh record highs

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Brokerage that nailed gold, silver bull run targets fresh record highs
Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research at Samco Securities, the brokerage that forecast the sharp rally in gold and silver, believes the precious metals bull market is far from over. Despite recent volatility, Sheth expects both metals to hit fresh record highs, backed by structural deficits, strong investment demand and supportive macroeconomic tailwinds.

Samco’s 3-year target for gold is $7,040 while silver can trade anywhere between $140-210.

Edited excerpts from a chat with the market expert on why the gold and silver bull run isn’t over yet:

Samco was among the first to have given bullish calls on silver which has played out very well. Do you think the white metal has topped out and won’t go back above the $100-mark anytime soon?

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We were the first ones to call out a bull market in silver back when it was trading around $23/troy ounce. Silver still remains a high conviction idea with a bullish outlook for the long term. The fundamentals of the silver market which drove the prices from $23 to $121 haven’t changed much. Silver is entering its sixth consecutive year of structural deficit due to inelastic by-product supply and surging demand from solar energy and electric vehicles.

Despite the sharp correction, silver is still outperforming gold. China has classified silver as a strategic asset, restricting exports and driving Shanghai physical premiums to record highs. Silver prices in Shanghai are still quoting at a premium of around $91 compared to $75 in the US. We believe that recent price dips are strategic buying opportunities for a secular bull market that has not yet peaked.
One view in the market is that gold will outperform silver in 2026 and that appears to be playing out as well. What do you think?
The gold to silver ratio had dipped to a low of 43 in January 2026. Over the last 12 years the level of 65 has acted as strong support for the ratio. A falling ratio means gold is underperforming silver and vice versa. Over the last 6 months silver was playing catch up with gold as it was massively undervalued compared to gold which was also one of the reasons for being bullish on silver. Now that silver has caught up and probably even went slightly ahead in terms of outperformance, we are seeing a role reversal and gold will take leadership while silver consolidates.Any targets that you have for both gold and silver?
Ever since gold broke out above the sideways consolidation in December 2023 we have been talking of these three levels – 2,608, 3335, 4750. These are Fibonacci projections drawn from September 2011 peak to December 2015 bottom in gold. The next extension level that comes after this is $7,040. This is a 3-year target that we are holding for gold. Silver normally trades at 2-3% the price of gold in precious metals bull run. So if gold trades at $7,040 then silver could trade anywhere between $140-210 in the same period.

For many investors, asset allocation is going for a toss as equity is struggling and bullion is leading to FOMO. Would you go on the extent of recommending a 50:50 allocation to precious metals and equity for someone who is moderately aggressive but has a 4-5 year horizon?

It cannot happen that you give a 50:50 allocation to equities and gold once and forget about it for the next 4-5 years. Asset allocation will have to be much more dynamic and tactical depending on the macro developments and the investor’s own risk profile. So for someone with an appetite for risk the allocation goes as high as 50% but it may not be suitable for everyone.

If the de-dollarisation theory, linked to rising US debt level, plays out, then we could be seeing a multi-year bull run in gold. What are the odds of that happening from a macro perspective?
US debt currently stands at $39 trillion. According to certain projections, the US is going to add $2.4 trillion in debt each year for the next 10 years. This will push the US debt to $64 trillion by 2036. The US currently spends more than a trillion dollars per year to service this debt. US interest expense and gold price are positively correlated. If the US pays more interest on its debt then naturally it will flood the monetary system with dollars which has been losing its purchasing power over the years.

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Richard Nixon took the US dollar off the gold standard on 15 August 1971. Gold prices have grown with a CAGR of 9% since then. If this rate of growth were to continue then gold will trade above $10,000 by 2036.

WGC data shows that central banking buying of gold slowed down in 2025 in volume terms. Is the central bank to gold what FIIs are to Indian largecap stocks?
Central banks bought gold to the tune of 1080 tonnes in 2022, 1050 tonnes in 2023, 1092 tonnes in 2024 and 863 tonnes in 2025. There is a drop of 20% in 2025 compared to 2024. Now compare this with investment demand in gold during the same period: 1125 tonnes in 2022, 951 tonnes in 2023, 1185 tonnes in 2024 and 2175 tonnes in 2025. The demand from investment has nearly doubled. So, although buying has slowed down I don’t think this is going to be a major hurdle for gold prices.

What makes you believe that the entire commodity basket, and not just precious metals, will see a supercycle? Help us understand how the rally in gold, silver and even copper for that matter can spill over to impact oil and gas?
Gold is the leader of all commodities because it responds first to monetary debasement and inflation expectations. Historically, oil lags gold. In the past reflationary cycles of 1971-80 and 2000-2008 too gold led the rally and oil participated later. The current degree of oil’s underperformance relative to gold is unprecedented, suggesting oil is poised for a massive catch-up phase. We believe that we are in a commodity supercycle which is driven by a shift towards hard assets from soft assets. This cycle transcends precious metals because systematic underinvestment has created structural deficits across the entire commodity basket.

For someone who wants to play the commodity or precious metals boom via the equity route, do you think commodity exchange, gold financers, oil producers and miners can also see significant upside?
All of the above are leveraged plays to benefit from the commodity basket. Take gold miners for example. Vaneck Gold Miners ETF tracks the world’s largest gold mining companies. Gold has moved up by 146% since 1st January 2024 but the ETF has moved up by 234% in the same period. So one can definitely ride the commodity supercycle indirectly through the routes you listed above.

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Can proxy investing via the equity route beat the returns of owning the commodity itself as operating leverage would be on the side of existing players?
Proxy investing through equities can outperform the underlying commodity because miners and producers have operating leverage. A 10% rise in the commodity price can translate into a much larger increase in earnings due to fixed costs. However, equity returns also embed management risk, capital allocation discipline, debt levels, and valuation multiples, which can dilute that advantage.

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Australia stocks lower at close of trade; S&P/ASX 200 down 0.05%

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Omnitech Engineering to float Rs 583 cr IPO on Feb 25

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Omnitech Engineering to float Rs 583 cr IPO on Feb 25
Omnitech Engineering, a manufacturer of precision-engineered components, on Friday fixed a price band of Rs 216-227 per share for its Rs 583 crore upcoming Initial Public Offering (IPO).

At the upper end, the company is valued at over Rs 2,800 crore.

The company’s initial share sale will open for public consumption on February 25 and conclude on February 27, while the bidding for anchor investors will take place on February 24, according to a public announcement.

The IPO is a combination of fresh issuance of equity shares worth up to Rs 418 crore and an offer for sale component of equity shares valued at Rs 165 crore by promoter Udaykumar Arunkumar Parekh.

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Proceeds from the fresh issue will be utilised to repay debt, set up two new manufacturing facilities, fund capital expenditure requirements and general corporate purposes.


Omnitech Engineering manufactures high-precision engineered components and supplies to global customers across industries like energy, motion control & automation, industrial equipment systems, and other diversified industrial applications.
Its clientele includes Halliburton Energy Services, Suzlon, Oshkosh Aerotech, Weatherford, Lufkin Industries, Oilgear, Donaldson Company, PUSH Industries and Bharat Aerospace Metals. Rajkot-based Omnitech Engineering will compete with the likes of Azad Engineering, Unimech Aerospace and Manufacturing, PTC Industries, Dynamatic Technologies and MTAR Technologies.

The company said that half of the issue size has been reserved for qualified institutional investors, 35 per cent for retail investors and the remaining 15 per cent for non-institutional investors.

Omnitech Engineering will make its stock market debut on March 5. The IPO is being managed by Equirus Capital, and ICICI Securities.

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Western Digital’s Davis sells $2.79m in stock

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What Canada’s Military Plans Mean for Lockheed, Defense Stocks.

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Exlservice holdings EVP Ayyappan sells $68978 in stock

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Demand for office space in Bristol soars and rents set to rise

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The office market delivered an ‘exceptionally positive year’ in 2025, according to a new report

The Welcome Building in Bristol city centre

The Welcome Building in Bristol city centre(Image: PR Handout)

Office rents in Bristol are expected to continue rising amid soaring demand for commercial space in the South West. Annual take-up of workspace in and around the city reached 926,000 sq ft last year – 21 per cent above the five-year average and eight per cent above the 10-year average – according to Avison Young’s latest Big Nine Report. The city centre, alone, accounted for 604,000 sq ft.

Prime rents held at £50 per sq ft, with Bristol remaining the Big Nine’s highest-rented market.

The largest city centre transaction in six years was Hargreaves Lansdown moving from its HQ after 40 years. The investment platform, which employs some 2,000 people Bristol, signed a long-term lease for more than 90,000 sq ft across three floors at Welcome Building, off Avon Street, near to Temple Meads station.

The business was previously based at One College Square South on Anchor Road in the city centre.

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Another large deal was legal firm Burges Salmon regearing its lease and expanding by acquiring an additional 41,600 sq ft at One Glass Wharf.

Julian Watts, managing director for Bristol and South West at Avison Young, said: “Bristol continues to stand out as one of the strongest-performing cities within the Big Nine. The office market delivered an exceptionally positive year in 2025, marked by record headline rents in both the city centre and out-of-town markets.”

He added: “With supply tightening and space under construction being pre-let, the market is poised for continued upward pressure on rents.”

Nationally, the UK office market was boosted by a strong Q4, where take-up reached 2.1 million sq ft, with year-end take-up reaching 7.6 million sq ft, just four per cent below 2024 and in line with the five-year average.

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Strong occupier demand for high-spec workspace continued to push rents higher across the Big Nine cities last year, with Bristol, Birmingham and Leeds all setting new rental records.

Investment volumes reached £227m in the fourth quarter, bringing the year-end total to £1.1bn.

Avison Young said that while investor sentiment had been impacted by economic uncertainty and elevated borrowing costs, contributing to slower decision-making, positive news around the economy at the start of 2026 was “expected to stimulate activity and support an increase in transaction volumes”.

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Innovative Industrial: Forget The 16.5% Yield, Get The 9.7%-Yielding Preferreds

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Innovative Industrial: Forget The 16.5% Yield, Get The 9.7%-Yielding Preferreds

Innovative Industrial: Forget The 16.5% Yield, Get The 9.7%-Yielding Preferreds

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Housing crisis needs more supply, not more taxes

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Housing crisis needs more supply, not more taxes

The familiar sound of the call for changes to Australia’s Capital Gains Tax (CGT) discount is again increasing in volume, with a Senate Select Committee on the Operation of the Capital Gains Discount likely to recommend a reduction in the discount, which translates into higher taxes.

Based on what’s been floated by the government in the press, it feels almost inevitable that a reduction from the current 50 per cent discount is coming. The extent of it we don’t know, but it’s possible it will be restricted to residential property.

The government talks about intergenerational equity and focusing on making housing affordable, especially for the next generation of homeowners. 

Those are important aspirations but the illusion that increasing taxes on investors will unlock supply or reduce prices is just misleading. 

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Data from leading industry analysts like PropTrack and Cotality tells us that investor activity is primarily a response to our tight rental market, not the root cause of unaffordability. 

In many places around Australia, rental vacancy rates are at or near historical lows, which is translating into higher rental prices. 

What will reduce rents is more supply of rental properties, not less. You don’t solve a supply problem by penalising those who provide homes to rent.

The push for CGT changes is fundamentally based on the premise that a higher tax burden will result in a more affordable housing market, as investors reduce their appetite for property, allowing more homeowners to enter the market.

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But even the Grattan Institute, which is hardly a pro-investor lobby, conceded that such a change would reduce house prices by just 1 per cent. 

The real drivers of price growth are far more fundamental; the undeniable imbalance between demand and supply. 

Homes aren’t suddenly going to become more affordable because investors have to pay a higher rate of tax when they profit on a sale. The outcome is likely to be the opposite of what’s intended. 

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Property, for a vast majority of investors, isn’t a get-rich-quick scheme; it’s a long-term wealth building strategy. 

Treasury research shows property investors are long term holders. WA Treasury commentary shows that residential investment property in WA is predominantly held long term, not traded frequently. 

NSW Treasury goes into more detail, with the mean holding period for investors being 13.7 years.  

This is a clear indication that most property owners are long-term asset holders. So, what happens when you hit them with a higher CGT? You don’t encourage more sales. 

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You incentivise investors to hold onto their properties for even longer to avoid paying a higher tax on exiting the asset. 

Already some investors have stated to me that they will hold their properties until they retire and sell when they are in a much lower tax bracket.

Australian property owners are already forking out an estimated $67 billion annually through stamp duty, land tax, and capital gains tax alone. This asset class already pays more than its fair share. 

We have a clear, pressing target to build 1.2 million homes over five years. If we are genuinely serious about intergenerational equity and getting more people into home ownership, then our focus must be on supply-side solutions. 

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That means tackling planning bottlenecks, addressing infrastructure shortfalls, and particularly the labour shortages in the construction industry.

Increasing a tax that impacts long-term investors, whose role is often to meet rental demand when supply is scarce, is nothing more than a distraction from the real work that needs doing.

Let’s stop talking about penalising property owners and start talking about how we get more homes built. That’s the only path to genuine housing affordability.

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Transocean earnings missed by $0.06, revenue topped estimates

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New hotel on city walls set for debate

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Premier Inn would be on site of Central Plaza Hotel in Victoria Viaduct in Carlisle

A new Premier Inn hotel in Carlisle city centre could be granted planning permission at a meeting in Workington next week.

A new Premier Inn hotel in Carlisle city centre could be granted planning permission at a meeting in Workington next week(Image: Local Democracy Reporting Service)

A NEW 104-bedroom hotel in Carlisle city centre could be granted planning permission at a meeting in Workington next week.

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Members of Cumberland Council’s planning committee are due to meet at Allerdale House on Wednesday (February 25) to consider the proposal.

The proposed hotel would be on land of the former site of the Central Plaza Hotel in Victoria Viaduct and, according to the report, the applicant is Whitbread.

The report states that the proposed hotel would incorporate a restaurant and bar as well as associated back-of-house facilities.

It is being placed before the committee because it is in the public interest and the application is for a large hotel development on a prominent site that is currently owned by the council.

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It is recommended that the application is granted subject to planning conditions and the report states: “The site covers an area of approximately 0.15 hectares and comprises the footprint of the former Grade II listed Central Plaza Hotel. It is located on the western side of Victoria Viaduct, on the edge of Carlisle city centre.

“The site contains a section of the Grade II listed medieval city walls which act as a retaining wall to West Walls and which comprises a mix of traditional stone, bricks and mortar.

“A small remnant staircase and former storage cupboard that served the previous hotel remain in the north-western corner.

“The site is currently accessed from Backhouse Walk to the south of the site, with direct access not currently available from Victoria Viaduct or West Walls given level differences.”

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According to the report Victoria Viaduct, to the east, features retail and office buildings linking onto English Street and Devonshire Street at the northern edge of Carlisle’s retail centre.

A new Premier Inn hotel in Carlisle city centre could be granted planning permission at a meeting in Workington next week.

The planned Premier Inn hotel in Carlisle city centre(Image: Local Democracy Reporting Service)

It states: “Carlisle Railway Station lies further to the east beside the Carlisle Citadel. To the south, between Backhouse Walk and English Damside, are traditional warehouses and former industrial buildings facing the railway.

“Backhouse Walk is a narrow lane set below the level of Victoria Viaduct, whilst West Walls bounds the site to the north, opposite the blank side elevation of the former Tesco supermarket and the service yard of Marks & Spencer.”

According to the report the proposed development comprises the erection of a five-storey, 104-bedroom Premier Inn hotel. It adds: “The bedrooms would be distributed across the lower ground, first, second, and third floors, supported by ancillary areas including linen stores, plant rooms and staff accommodation.”

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