China gets ‘dragon year’ birth boost but population falls for third year

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China recorded its third consecutive year of population decline in 2024, despite the country’s first increase in births in almost a decade in a year traditionally regarded as auspicious.

Figures released on Friday by the National Bureau of Statistics showed the country recorded 9.54mn births in 2024, trailing 10.93mn deaths but up from 9mn births last year as Chinese families marked the year of the dragon, believed to be an auspicious zodiac sign. Birth rates hit a record low in 2023.

The increase was the first rise in births since 2016 and left the country with a total population of 1.408bn. India overtook China in 2023 as the world’s most populous country.

China’s declining population, which fell in 2022 for the first time in six decades, stems from a 1980s policy — ended in 2016 — that limited most couples to having only one child, below the average of 2.1 needed for populations to remain stable.

Analysts say birth rates have also been depressed by economic pressures as the country grapples with slowing growth.

The declining population has wide-reaching implications for the economy, with the working-age population shrinking, piling pressure on labour productivity. The UN forecasts that China’s population could decline to just over 1.3bn by 2050, while the number of people aged 65 or over is predicted to nearly double.

“[The data] just reinforces the new demographic paradigm that China finds itself in,” said Stuart Gietel-Basten, a professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. “Population decline is not a blip, this is the new normal.”

Policymakers are pursuing alternatives such as automation and robotics to maintain high levels of productivity, as well as seeking to encourage couples to have more children through a mix of subsidies, tax breaks and cajoling.

With more than a fifth of the country’s population aged 60 or older, according to official figures, a vibrant “silver economy” has emerged of products and services aimed at the growing elderly population.

Beijing last year unveiled guidelines for the promotion of a market estimated to be worth trillions of renminbi, with a focus on the development of food and healthcare services.

The State Council, China’s cabinet, also announced in October that it was formulating a plan for “birth-friendly society” as one part of wider efforts to stimulate the slowing economy.

“I think that adapting to this new demographic paradigm is a real priority [for policymakers],” said Gietel-Basten. “A lot of policies have already been brought in and they do recognise that this is a challenge but it’s a matter of how far and how fast you can go.”

Steve Tsang, director of the Soas China Institute in London, said the high costs of raising children also contributed to China’s demographic decline.

Unless factors such as these change, “the government’s policy to encourage more births is unlikely to have much effect”, he added. “In other words, the prospect is that China’s population will continue to shrink for years, indeed decades, to come.”