With Bitcoin ($BTC) printing a rather bearish monthly candle, it does look like the bulls might be going into hiding, at least until later in January. Of course, the altcoins are not going to rampage any time soon as altcoin season gets postponed again. Will there even be a decent altseason at some point in this bull market?
Flipping current resistance into support would be big for altcoins
Source: TradingView
Total3 is the combined market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies, excluding $BTC and $ETH. Therefore, it is an excellent chart for judging how altcoins are doing. It can be seen in the chart above that the breakout from the cup and handle chart pattern came to a sudden stop at $1.16 trillion, and the correction found support at the top lip of the cup.
Whether this will continue to be major support remains to be seen. There is still the possibility that the price could even come down to retest the top of the handle at $785 billion.
The market cap is currently firmly up against the resistance at $939 billion. Breaking this would probably mean a resumption of the altcoin bull market. However, the Stochastic RSI at the bottom of the chart has the indicator lines heading down. Until these turn and start heading back up, the necessary price momentum will be lacking.
No altseason in sight yet
Source: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/
At Blockchaincenter.net, it can be seen that there was in fact a small altseason window in early December. However, it was very short-lived, and nothing like the altseasons from previous bull markets. Currently the chart shows the indicator at a major support level. A drop below this would reduce the chances of an altseason even further.
Bitcoin Dominance breakdown needs to continue
Source: TradingView
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is still showing a breakdown from the ascending wedge pattern. Support levels are shown on the chart above. For the altcoins to really get going, the support levels will need to be broken to the downside, with the bottom level resulting in a lower low.
This said, everything will always depend on Bitcoin as far as the altcoins are concerned. The best scenario for a proper altcoin season is that Bitcoin surges higher and then goes sideways for a period of time. Given that this is probably not on the cards, at least for the next few weeks or so, altseason will continue to be postponed.
Will there eventually be one at some point in this bull market? Nothing is guaranteed, but at the end of the bull market, after Bitcoin makes its potential blow-off top, a lot of BTC value could then pour into the altcoins so that they could have one last surge. Could there be an altseason before this? Yes, anything is possible, but this bull cycle is behaving differently to previous ones. Bitcoin Dominance is the chart to watch.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
+ There are no comments
Add yours