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AMRO’s flagship AREO 2026 report projects steady regional growth for ASEAN+3 while warning that the Middle East conflict has significantly increased downside risks through energy supply disruptions.

Key Details:

• Regional growth is forecast at 4.0% in both 2026 and 2027, following stronger-than-expected expansion of 4.3% in 2025.
• The Middle East conflict has raised energy prices, pushing headline inflation from 0.9% in 2025 to a projected 1.4–1.5% in 2026–2027.
• The region is considered better positioned than in previous energy shocks due to improved energy efficiency, lower oil dependency, and available policy space.
• A prolonged conflict could spread disruptions beyond energy markets to industrial inputs, logistics, food prices, tourism, and remittances.
• Structurally, ASEAN+3 has shifted toward intraregional demand — now accounting for 28% of global final demand — with US-bound value-added exports falling from ~one-third to 20%.
• Policymakers are urged to maintain financial stability, act decisively against sustained inflation, and provide targeted fiscal support without fuelling inflation.

Why It Matters:
ASEAN+3’s growing regional integration and economic resilience provide a strong foundation, but sustained policy vigilance and deeper regional cooperation will be critical to navigating ongoing global shocks.

Chapter 1: Macroeconomic Prospects and Challenges

ASEAN+3 delivered a stronger-than-expected performance in 2025 despite the most significant shift in global trade policy in decades. Economic activity remained well-supported by firm domestic demand, robust export performance, continued investment, and strengthening intraregional linkages.

Near-term risks (Chapter 1):

• Ongoing conflict in the Middle East and energy supply disruptions (especially via the Strait of Hormuz).
• Shifting U.S. trade policies and volatile technology demand.
• Financial market volatility adding downside pressure.
• Policymakers’ central challenge: preserving policy flexibility.

Looking ahead, the balance of risks is tilted to the downside, with uncertainty remaining elevated. Trade policy shifts and technology demand have each become sources of two-sided risk. The conflict in the Middle East and the disruption to energy supply through the Strait of Hormuz pose a significant near-term risk to both growth and inflation, while financial market volatility adds further downside pressure.

The region nonetheless enters 2026 from a position of relative strength. Growth outperformed expectations in 2025, inflation remained low, and most economies retain meaningful fiscal and monetary space. Preserving policy flexibility remains the central near-term challenge for policymakers across the region.

Source : ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2026 – ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office – AMRO ASIA

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Dalal Street is heading into a busy phase of IPO lock-in expiries, with a significant portion of pre-listing shareholder restrictions set to be lifted over the next three months. According to estimates by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research, as many as 81 companies will see their lock-ins expire between April 7 and July 31, potentially unlocking stock worth nearly $70 billion.

The value refers to the total shares becoming eligible for trading as lock-up periods end. However, not all of these shares are expected to be sold in the secondary market, as a substantial portion remains held by promoter groups who typically continue to retain their stakes.

Among the notable names in April, Bharat Coking Coal will see its three-month lock-in end on April 15, with 59 million shares or 1% of equity becoming eligible for trading. Amagi Media Labs follows on April 20, with 11 million shares or 5%, while Shadowfax Technologies will have 35 million shares or 6% unlocked on April 23.

In May, Fractal Analytics and Aye Finance will see lock-in expiries on May 13, involving 7 million shares (4%) and 18 million shares (7%), respectively. Later in the month, Gaudium IVF and Women Health will unlock 3 million shares or 4% on May 26, followed by Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions on May 27 with 4 million shares or 4%. PNGS Reva Diamond Jewellery will also see 2 million shares or 7% becoming tradable on May 29.

In June, Omnitech Engineering will have 4 million shares or 3% unlocked on June 1, while SEDEMAC Mechatronics will see 1 million shares or 3% become eligible for trading on June 8.

A host of stocks will also witness six-month shareholder lock-in periods expiries over the coming weeks. Starting April 13, Tata Capital will see a significant 2,858 million shares, or 67% of equity, become eligible for trading. On the same day, WeWork India will have 60 million shares, representing 45%, unlocked.
On April 15, LG Electronics India will see 441 million shares or 65% of equity become tradable. This will be followed by Canara Robeco AMC on April 17, with 110 million shares or 55% unlocking, and Canara HSBC Life Insurance on April 20, where 522 million shares or 55% will
be released.
Later in April, Midwest will see 6 million shares or 17% unlocked on April 24, followed by Capillary Technologies on April 28 with 0.5 million shares or 0.7%. Tenneco Clean Air India will also see 3 million shares or 0.8% become tradable on April 30.

In May, Lenskart Solutions will have 1,047 million shares or 60% unlocked on May 8, alongside Emmvee Photovoltaic Power with 5 million shares or 0.7%. This will be followed by Aequs on May 11 with 1 million shares or 0.2%.

Finally, Billionbrains Garage Ventures will see a large expiry on May 12, with 4,182 million shares, or 68% of equity, becoming eligible for trading.

While lock-in expiries are a routine part of the IPO cycle, clustered unlocks of this scale tend to attract attention and can weigh on stock prices in the short term. Nuvama noted that despite the headline figure of $67 billion, the actual market impact will depend on how much of the eligible stock is eventually offered for sale.

The upcoming lock-in expiries come at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, with tensions in the Middle East still elevated and rising crude prices fuelling concerns over potential rate hikes. Although a two-week ceasefire is currently in place, its durability remains uncertain, leaving markets vulnerable to volatility if tensions escalate further.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of CLS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Foreign investor appetite for Indian equities may be cooling sharply, if insights shared by Nithin Kamath are anything to go by. In a recent social media post, the Zerodha co-founder said feedback from a stock market insider suggests that global investors are increasingly turning cautious on India, citing a mix of macro, valuation, and policy concerns.

According to Kamath, India is currently viewed as geopolitically vulnerable—particularly to potential oil shocks—while the absence of compelling artificial intelligence-led investment opportunities has further dampened its appeal. Elevated valuations and concerns around the rupee have also added to investor hesitation.

He noted that many foreign investors who were sitting on gains have already booked profits and are reallocating capital to other markets such as Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and parts of Europe, where relative valuations and growth narratives appear more attractive.

Policy-related factors are also playing a role. Kamath highlighted that India’s capital gains tax framework—especially the structure of long-term and short-term capital gains (LTCG/STCG)—along with the recent increase in Securities Transaction Tax (STT), has made the market less competitive versus global peers that are currently attracting stronger inflows.

With foreign portfolio investment (FPI) flows turning volatile, Kamath suggested that rationalising these tax structures could be a “low-hanging fruit” to improve India’s attractiveness and bring global investors back into the fold.

“Asked someone from the industry whether foreign investors are still interested in allocating to India. The TLDR: Interest has pretty much died out. India is seen as geopolitically exposed, especially to an oil shock. There are no real AI plays. Valuations are rich. And the rupee situation doesn’t help. On top of that, investors who were sitting on gains have taken money off the table and are now looking at markets like Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Europe etc instead,” the tweet said.
“He also pointed out that our LTCG/STCG structure and the increase in STT have made India less attractive compared to other markets that are seeing inflows. If we need to attract FPIs back, and we do, fixing this feels like pretty low-hanging fruit,” Kamath added.Nifty is down 9% this year, as FIIs continue to leave India. They have offloaded equities worth Rs 1,77,271 crore so far this year. In just six sessions this month, they have sold Rs 46,149 crore worth of stocks.
Domestic markets ended with cuts today, ending their five-session gaining streak. They fell amid significant selling pressure in financial stocks along with auto and FMCG counters. Nifty plunged 222.25 points or 0.93% to finish at 23,775.10. Meanwhile, Sensex declined 947.22 points or 1.22% to settle at 76,615.68.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

New Delhi: India’s growth projection of 6.6% for FY27 faces downside risks from the Gulf conflict, but the economy remains well placed to navigate the global energy shock, supported by strong macroeconomic buffers, the World Bank said on Thursday.

The country is expected to remain among the fastest-growing major economies. Growth for FY27 reflects the impact of higher global energy prices due to the Middle East conflict and is expected to average 7.1% in FY28-29, it noted.

The World Bank has assumed oil prices at $90-100 per barrel for FY27.

Despite external risks, macroeconomic strength and policy measures are expected to provide some insulation. However, the multilateral lender flagged energy diversification, prudent fiscal management and trade liberalisation as key priorities.

Aurelien Kruse, lead economist for India at the World Bank, said the country entered the current fiscal year from a position of strength.

“Substantial foreign reserves, low inflation, predominantly rupee-denominated public debt, a healthy financial sector, and trade diversification efforts play a major role in providing resilience from external headwinds,” said the World Bank.
The Reserve Bank of India expects growth of 6.9% for FY27. Without the ongoing conflict, growth was estimated at 7.2%, supported by stronger-than-expected performance in FY26, the World Bank said.

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected at 7.6% in FY26, driven by private consumption, manufacturing, exports and investment, despite high tariffs imposed by the US.

Inflation is projected to rise to 4.9% in FY27, according to the World Bank, due to higher food prices, partial pass-through of global energy prices and currency depreciation pressures. Elevated energy prices are also likely to raise input costs for industry.

“Boosting private sector-led growth will be critical to strengthening economic resilience and supporting more young people to enter the workforce,” said Paul Procee, acting country director for India at the World Bank.

He added that achieving the goal of Viksit Bharat will require a predictable, business-friendly environment to unlock investment and create jobs at scale in sectors such as energy and infrastructure, manufacturing, tourism, healthcare and agribusiness.

New Delhi: India’s growth projection of 6.6% for FY27 faces downside risks from the Gulf conflict, but the economy remains well placed to navigate the global energy shock, supported by strong macroeconomic buffers, the World Bank said on Thursday.

The country is expected to remain among the fastest-growing major economies. Growth for FY27 reflects the impact of higher global energy prices due to the Middle East conflict and is expected to average 7.1% in FY28-29, it noted.

The World Bank has assumed oil prices at $90-100 per barrel for FY27.

Despite external risks, macroeconomic strength and policy measures are expected to provide some insulation. However, the multilateral lender flagged energy diversification, prudent fiscal management and trade liberalisation as key priorities.

Aurelien Kruse, lead economist for India at the World Bank, said the country entered the current fiscal year from a position of strength.

“Substantial foreign reserves, low inflation, predominantly rupee-denominated public debt, a healthy financial sector, and trade diversification efforts play a major role in providing resilience from external headwinds,” said the World Bank.

The Reserve Bank of India expects growth of 6.9% for FY27.

Without the ongoing conflict, growth was estimated at 7.2%, supported by stronger-than-expected performance in FY26, the World Bank said.

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected at 7.6% in FY26, driven by private consumption, manufacturing, exports and investment, despite high tariffs imposed by the US.

Inflation is projected to rise to 4.9% in FY27, according to the World Bank, due to higher food prices, partial pass-through of global energy prices and currency depreciation pressures. Elevated energy prices are also likely to raise input costs for industry.

“Boosting private sector-led growth will be critical to strengthening economic resilience and supporting more young people to enter the workforce,” said Paul Procee, acting country director for India at the World Bank.

He added that achieving the goal of Viksit Bharat will require a predictable, business-friendly environment to unlock investment and create jobs at scale in sectors such as energy and infrastructure, manufacturing, tourism, healthcare and agribusiness.