Dubai real estate: Is it a good time to buy property in 2026?

This led to increased villa prices (54.7 per cent) and apartment rates (20.3 per cent) higher than its 2014 peak. But is 2026 a good time to buy property in Dubai?

For investors, experts believe that 2026 could be a “smart entry point if you’re patient and focused on long-term value rather than quick gains.”

“Deciding if 2026 is the right time to buy really comes down to a few big signals. Prices are expected to level off after years of growth, while a wave of new housing supply will give buyers more choice and negotiating power,” Zhou Yuan, Operations Director, Tomorrow World Properties told Arabian Business.

“Rental demand looks steady thanks to Dubai’s growing population, but yields need to be weighed against mortgage costs,” he explained.

Investors eye Dubai 2026 opportunities

In addition, interest rates are set to play a key role in affordability and wider economic policies continue to support confidence.

However, experts assert that Dubai does not move as a single market. Conditions vary sharply by location, asset type, buyer profile and supply timing. As a result, assessing 2026 requires a layered view of population growth, supply delivery, absorption rates, rental performance and leverage levels rather than headline price movements.

“This is the most important point, I never look at the market as one single market. There is no such thing as ‘the Dubai market’,” Firas Al Massadi, CEO of fäm Properties said to Arabian Business.

He added, “Some pockets may be overheating while others are just beginning their growth cycle. Generic statements hide risk. Granular analysis reveals opportunity.”

Broad averages can obscure risk, hence, experts advise focusing on indicators that show whether the demand is organic and durable.

Property demand soars in Dubai

“Beyond headline price movements, the most meaningful indicators are sustained population growth, strong job creation, rising mortgage uptake, and healthy supply‑absorption rates as published by DLD and the Dubai Statistics Centre. These metrics show whether demand is organically expanding or artificially inflated,” said Navneet Mandhani, Founder & CEO of Karma Developers.

Additionally, the off-plan market is a strong indicator of confidence in the city’s property market.

“Equally important is the behaviour of the off‑plan market. When new launches continue to achieve solid sell‑through at realistic price points, it signals genuine end‑user and long‑term investor confidence. If these trends hold through 2025, they position 2026 as a stable and strategically timed entry point for buyers,” Mandhani explained.

Last week, Arabian Business reported that increasing supply in some areas of the market is giving buyers more choice, greater negotiating power and even slowing price growth in certain communities.

However, Matt Gregory, Senior Director, Strategy at Dubizzle Group emphasised that its important to pay attention to “who’s buying and whether people keep coming back to the same areas also helps show how confident the market really is, and whether demand is being driven by people planning to live there, long-term investors, or short-term opportunists.”

Certain property types outperform other segments but the key factors influencing success varies and continues to be based on population growth, supply, area and more.

“There’s no one-size-fits-all answer when it comes to the best type of property. It really depends on what you’re looking for. Villas and townhouses are popular with families who want to settle long-term, while apartments tend to attract investors looking for easier resale or rental income. Off-plan properties appeal to buyers who are happy to wait and pay in stages,” Gregory explained.

“In general, the most reliable choices are the ones that match real lifestyle needs and investment goals.”

Early signs of price fatigue

With immense demand, supply and activity in the Dubai real estate market, there are some segments that are showing early signs of price fatigue. According to experts, this manifests in areas dominated by speculative buying rather than end-user occupation.

Entry-level apartments, mid-market stock with large upcoming handovers and areas where products are repetitive and easily replaceable show the earliest signs of buyer resistance. Fatigue does not mean collapse but rather buyers stopping to chase and starting to negotiate.

The moderation appears most visible in apartment sub-segments, particularly in areas with the highest supply concentration and in tertiary locations where community depth and amenities remain limited. This reflects Dubai’s uneven supply-demand dynamics rather than a market-wide shift, with overall demand remaining strong even as specific pockets experience localised pressure.

“Secondary sales in a few areas are showing signs of slightly longer sales cycles which could be attributed to the quality of offerings in the neighbourhoods,” said Ajay Rajendran, Founder and Chairman of Meraki Group.

“This reflects Dubai’s uneven supply-demand dynamics rather than a market-wide shift. While overall demand remains strong, supply is concentrated in specific pockets, creating localised pressure as new units come online,” added Riz Ahmed, CEO, Smartcrowd.

Karma’s Mandhani believes that early signs of price fatigue are most visible in ultra-prime pockets and in segments that have been driven more by short-term speculative acitivity than by genuine user-end demand.

Hidden supply in the off-plan market

A significant volume of off-plan inventory can effectively behave as supply before handover because it trades freely in the secondary market. This liquid, sellable stock within off-plan developments creates potential pressure if sentiment changes, yet remains largely invisible in standard pipeline analysis.

The distinction between ready and off-plan inventory becomes critical when assessing supply risk. Completed properties face limited oversupply risk in the immediate term, with demand from Dubai’s rapidly growing population absorbing available stock.

The off-plan segment, however, requires closer scrutiny not just of projects being launched but of the accumulated inventory sitting within developments that can return to the market.

Ahmed contextualises this 2025-2026 shift, “This resulted in a shortfall of roughly 43,000 units, which helps explain rising rents, low vacancy rates and strong absorption despite higher prices. On paper, this suggests a modest surplus, which would point to a more balanced market, rather than oversupply. It’s also important to note that scheduled supply is not guaranteed supply, as handover delays remain common and create large pockets of imbalance across the city.”

These delays cut both ways, temporarily tightening availability only to create subsequent pressure when projects complete. The pattern creates micro-market imbalances that affect pricing dynamics at the neighbourhood level whilst leaving citywide aggregates relatively stable.

Localised supply pressure

Supply pressure concentrates in specific locations rather than distributing evenly across Dubai. Jumeirah Village Circle and Business Bay face the highest volumes of upcoming inventory, with traffic congestion already challenging residents in both areas. The sheer volume of new units elevates the importance of asset selection with well-located buildings featuring strong layouts and credible developers likely to outperform generic stock.

Pipeline data reveals Jebel Ali showing the highest absolute supply volume, though the district’s massive scale means the area can comfortably absorb what’s coming. The more pressing concern centres on Jumeirah Village Circle, where current plans indicate more than 25,000 units will be handed over over the next three years.

This concentration does not automatically signal problems, but it demands greater selectivity around building quality, layout, pricing and differentiation.

The list of areas facing elevated supply extends to Dubai Sports City, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Townsquare, Arjan and Studio City, all characterised by massive new high-density apartment projects. The common thread links mid-market apartment developments concentrated in specific districts, creating localised rather than citywide pressure.

Yet supply concentration alone does not determine outcomes. Many family-friendly, well-established communities maintain demand exceeding available homes while newer neighbourhoods help meet the needs of growing population.

The market has become more carefully planned and regulated than in previous cycles, avoiding the broad-based oversupply issues that characterised earlier downturns.

Villas continue to dominate growth and resilience in the property market.

Looking forward, pipeline data shows most upcoming supply concentrated in apartments whilst premium villa inventory remains comparatively limited. This dynamic suggests villas will likely prove more resilient during market moderation, particularly in established communities.

Yet returns depend on more than asset type, with entry pricing, location and quality remaining critical determinants of performance.

Massadi advised, regardless of what you’re buying or selling, avoid projects with a mass number of identical units, especially in the apartment segment. Scale kills scarcity, and scarcity is what protects value.

Whether it’s a villa, an apartment, or anything in between, the most important factor is pricing discipline. With the level of transparency available in the market today, buyers can clearly see:

• How much similar properties have sold for
• How much they are renting for
• How pricing compares within the same building or community

“When you do that comparison properly, it becomes very clear whether what you’re buying is well priced or not,” he explained.

Top picks for first-time buyers

For first-time buyers, experts suggest well-connected districts with strong value propositions. Communities such as DLRC, Arjan, Dubai Sports City and DIP is recommended.

Areas such as JVC and Business Bay face oversupply restraints. “The highest concentration of upcoming supply is currently in Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) and Business Bay. Traffic is already a challenge in these areas and is a common pain point for residents,” Ahmed said.

“While both areas continue to attract strong demand, the sheer volume of new units means asset selection becomes critical. Well-located buildings with strong layouts and developer credibility should continue to perform, while generic stock may face more pricing and rental pressure,” he explained.

Yuan argued, “The highest risk of oversupply is possibly the likes of Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC), Dubai Sports City, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Townsquare, Arjan, and Studio City, due to massive new high-density apartment projects.”

The city overall is expected to continue to hold its place as a safe haven with strong economic diversification and supportive government policies.

For first-time investors, research and due diligence is advised.

“Location first, always. Then the developer’s track record. Pricing comes after that. A cheap price doesn’t fix a weak location,” Rajendran explained.

Experts assert that Dubai is well-positioned even if there is a global slowdown or geopolitical shock.

“One key reason is that Dubai’s property market is not mortgage-dependent in the way Western markets are. Lower leverage means fewer forced sellers when conditions tighten. Another reason is positioning. Dubai is a lifestyle-driven city and a global hub for ultra-high-net-worth individuals. Even in a global financial crunch, wealth doesn’t disappear, it compresses,” Al Massadi explained.

“Someone with two billion may have one billion; someone with one billion may have five hundred million. But they are still buyers, and they still need safe, functional, and attractive places to live and invest,” he concluded.